California lawmakers approve hiking minimum wage to $15

[blackjack50]

they will want more money. it is called economic scaling. if they don't get a raise to compensate them then their jobs and skills just got devalued.

Exactly. Why bother to work a demanding and unrewarding job when you could just stand behind a counter and ask if they want fries with that? Same pay, easier hours, no stress.

I wish the government would just pay for everything I need. I bet we can all vote ourselves rich.

 

[Kushinator]

that is why a double cheese burger use to cost 1 dollar now it costs 1.50.
it is why chipotle raised all their prices by 10% in san fran after their minimum wage increase.
your right prices never go up they always stay the same.

Rises in San Fran chipotle prices will lead to.....

huge massive inflation.

:lol:

 

[notquiteright]

Arizona ands Texas could use some more CA companies

I guess there will be fewer fast food/low retail stores in Ca. No more Dollar Generals or McDonalds for Californians... not a bad thing...

Still statistics show the 'flight' from California is far more lower educated and income people, there is an influx of college graduates and above. Now that there is a minimum wage to match the cost of living in California it will be interesting to see how this works. I don't know just how transportable minimum wage businesses are- after all Texas has a long run as a minimum wage state and I don't believe lacks for fast food, or Family Dollar stores.

One benefit is a removal of many working poor families from Public Assistance... eace

 

[TurtleDude]

I guess there will be fewer fast food/low retail stores in Ca. No more Dollar Generals or McDonalds for Californians... not a bad thing...

Still statistics show the 'flight' from California is far more lower educated and income people, there is an influx of college graduates and above. Now that there is a minimum wage to match the cost of living in California it will be interesting to see how this works. I don't know just how transportable minimum wage businesses are- after all Texas has a long run as a minimum wage state and I don't believe lacks for fast food, or Family Dollar stores.

One benefit is a removal of many working poor families from Public Assistance... eace

I think that claim has been made ever since we had the imposition of a minimum wage at either a national or a state level

 

[Moderate Right]

I think that claim has been made ever since we had the imposition of a minimum wage at either a national or a state level

Sounds good on paper to the left but reality is a far different story. You notch a tree to fall in one direction and the damn thing winds up falling the other direction.

 

[notquiteright]

I think that claim has been made ever since we had the imposition of a minimum wage at either a national or a state level

Ya 'think' or can prove?

All depends on what amount of the minimum wage. In higher cost of living areas it usually is too low, it rarely is too high. When Northup grumman moved out of Lawton OK, to Heardton Va, the salary boost was half what was needed to equal the increased cost of living- few chose to follow NG to Virginia.

So bottom line for the debate is where does the minimum wage fall compared to the area's cost of living... eace

 

[ttwtt78640]

I guess there will be fewer fast food/low retail stores in Ca. No more Dollar Generals or McDonalds for Californians... not a bad thing...

Still statistics show the 'flight' from California is far more lower educated and income people, there is an influx of college graduates and above. Now that there is a minimum wage to match the cost of living in California it will be interesting to see how this works. I don't know just how transportable minimum wage businesses are- after all Texas has a long run as a minimum wage state and I don't believe lacks for fast food, or Family Dollar stores.

One benefit is a removal of many working poor families from Public Assistance... eace

Why is having fewer jobs going to help reduce the need for public assistance?

 

[ttwtt78640]

Ya 'think' or can prove?

All depends on what amount of the minimum wage. In higher cost of living areas it usually is too low, it rarely is too high. When Northup grumman moved out of Lawton OK, to Heardton Va, the salary boost was half what was needed to equal the increased cost of living- few chose to follow NG to Virginia.

So bottom line for the debate is where does the minimum wage fall compared to the area's cost of living... eace

Nope - the bottom line is where does your earning potential allow you to live.

 

[TurtleDude]

Ya 'think' or can prove?

All depends on what amount of the minimum wage. In higher cost of living areas it usually is too low, it rarely is too high. When Northup grumman moved out of Lawton OK, to Heardton Va, the salary boost was half what was needed to equal the increased cost of living- few chose to follow NG to Virginia.

So bottom line for the debate is where does the minimum wage fall compared to the area's cost of living... eace

you're now denying or disputing that the push for each minimum wage increase was not accompanied by claims it would lift the working poor out of poverty or get them off the public dole?

OK

 

[chuckiechan]

I understand the deal was negotiated with no business people involved, and that the state's main bargaining chip with the unions was the threat to take the wage increase to the voters, where common sense rules.

The other thing I'm hearing is that union shops can pay less, giving non union shops an incentive to go union to cut labor costs. But as usual, the Nancy Pelosi rule applies: "You have to pass it to find out what is in it."

 

[Citizen.Seven]

Yes, can but haven't. The barrier isn't price. It's getting the technology to a point where the consumer is comfortable enough with it to skip the human interaction. The reason you don't see any "magic moment" is that for most tasks, we already past it. The barrier isn't price. Computers are cheaper than people. If a computer can do it, the computer can do it cheaper. The only issue is that computers can't actually do everything. If McDonald's could implement an AutoBurger5000, they would. Problem is that it's tough to make a machine successfully assemble a cheeseburger without human intervention.


And nobody is pretending there's zero effect on labor.

Actually, the barrier is price. An "AutoBurger5000" could be made with current tech, but there would be costs associated with R&D in order to implement it. If the resulting device costs half a million with say 10% or 50k annual operating costs, it will never pay for itself by replacing one shift slot at 7.5/hr (7.5 x 20hours/day x 365days/year =54k/year). Well, at those numbers, the break even cost is 125 years (500k/(54k-50k)), which is waaay too long of a timeframe to contend the implicit assumptions are valid. Double that wage to 15/hr, and the break even point is 9 years. Still too long, but within the realm of reality. If you could deliver the AB5k for say 250k, even with operating cost of 50k/year, the break even is under 5 years at 15, whereas it's still over 30 years at 7.50. At five years, there would be crazy demand.

Of course, I'm simplifying: the costs of a worker slot are more than just hourly wage. There's taxes, health insurance, vacation, insurance, etc. And I suspect I may be low-balling the per unit cost of the necessary device as well. But the basic math is the same, and going to 15/hr makes the development of such devices much closer to economically feasible.

Now, one place we are seeing replacement of workers is in order placement/checkout. That's a great deal easier, and just became a great deal more viable.

 

[notquiteright]

Why is having fewer jobs going to help reduce the need for public assistance?

Given the fact the lower income people are leaving California for Texas 'fewer' low wage jobs is a good thing. Now for all the right babbles about 'fewer' jobs most major companies pay over minimum wage now- Walmart and other big box stores pay higher and they are always looking at their bottom line. But to attract good workers many employers realize they have to pay more- as it stands many low wage jobs have such a high turn over the time spent training each new and very temporary employee has to be figured in.

Oklahoma has a minimum wage of $7.25 IIRC, Big box pays $9.50 to start, Mikey D's does similar. State capital to state capital- Housing is 36% cheaper in OKC than Sacramento- the biggest CoL factor. Biggest city to biggest city OKC to LA housing is 264% more expensive in LA. You'd have to make 147K in La to equal a 80K salary in OKC... eace

 

[notquiteright]

you're now denying or disputing that the push for each minimum wage increase was not accompanied by claims it would lift the working poor out of poverty or get them off the public dole? OK

Doubt this line of debate works in the courtroom either... :doh

I said it all depends on what level the min wage is set how effective it is at bringing people off public assistance... eace

 

[Deuce]

Actually, the barrier is price. An "AutoBurger5000" could be made with current tech, but there would be costs associated with R&D in order to implement it. If the resulting device costs half a million with say 10% or 50k annual operating costs, it will never pay for itself by replacing one shift slot at 7.5/hr (7.5 x 20hours/day x 365days/year =54k/year). Well, at those numbers, the break even cost is 125 years (500k/(54k-50k)), which is waaay too long of a timeframe to contend the implicit assumptions are valid. Double that wage to 15/hr, and the break even point is 9 years. Still too long, but within the realm of reality. If you could deliver the AB5k for say 250k, even with operating cost of 50k/year, the break even is under 5 years at 15, whereas it's still over 30 years at 7.50. At five years, there would be crazy demand.

Of course, I'm simplifying: the costs of a worker slot are more than just hourly wage. There's taxes, health insurance, vacation, insurance, etc. And I suspect I may be low-balling the per unit cost of the necessary device as well. But the basic math is the same, and going to 15/hr makes the development of such devices much closer to economically feasible.

Now, one place we are seeing replacement of workers is in order placement/checkout. That's a great deal easier, and just became a great deal more viable.

Well yes if you just make up numbers to prove your point, you can certainly prove your point.

Why does this machine cost $50k/year to operate? (and remember, this has to be purely additional costs from the machinery. You don't get to count purchasing the food or heating costs because those are costs already associated with burger making)

 

[Master PO]

the businesses that are positioned and equipped to make such a move (bigger businesses) won't be the ones making a move( due to minimum wage increases anyways)... they'll be looking to gain market shares from small companies who can't weather the transition.

I'm HQ'ed in Cali... and I won't be making a move due to this... I'll be looking to make moves against competitors who are already riding razor thing margins.
if Unions don't get their own special carve out, i'll be sitting in great shape.... if they are exempted from the law ( which is he most likely scenario, due to them owning the California legislature).. I'll only be sitting in very good shape.

so you are looking for advantage, over those who cannot bare the 15 bucks an hour.

 

[Master PO]

I guess there will be fewer fast food/low retail stores in Ca. No more Dollar Generals or McDonalds for Californians... not a bad thing...

Still statistics show the 'flight' from California is far more lower educated and income people, there is an influx of college graduates and above. Now that there is a minimum wage to match the cost of living in California it will be interesting to see how this works. I don't know just how transportable minimum wage businesses are- after all Texas has a long run as a minimum wage state and I don't believe lacks for fast food, or Family Dollar stores.

One benefit is a removal of many working poor families from Public Assistance... eace

"the poor will always be with you"

 

[ttwtt78640]

Ya 'think' or can prove?

All depends on what amount of the minimum wage. In higher cost of living areas it usually is too low, it rarely is too high. When Northup grumman moved out of Lawton OK, to Heardton Va, the salary boost was half what was needed to equal the increased cost of living- few chose to follow NG to Virginia.

So bottom line for the debate is where does the minimum wage fall compared to the area's cost of living... eace

Giving low wage folks a raise does not seem like such a great plan to encorage them to move out of state.

 

[blackjack50]

Actually, the barrier is price. An "AutoBurger5000" could be made with current tech, but there would be costs associated with R&D in order to implement it. If the resulting device costs half a million with say 10% or 50k annual operating costs, it will never pay for itself by replacing one shift slot at 7.5/hr (7.5 x 20hours/day x 365days/year =54k/year). Well, at those numbers, the break even cost is 125 years (500k/(54k-50k)), which is waaay too long of a timeframe to contend the implicit assumptions are valid. Double that wage to 15/hr, and the break even point is 9 years. Still too long, but within the realm of reality. If you could deliver the AB5k for say 250k, even with operating cost of 50k/year, the break even is under 5 years at 15, whereas it's still over 30 years at 7.50. At five years, there would be crazy demand.

Of course, I'm simplifying: the costs of a worker slot are more than just hourly wage. There's taxes, health insurance, vacation, insurance, etc. And I suspect I may be low-balling the per unit cost of the necessary device as well. But the basic math is the same, and going to 15/hr makes the development of such devices much closer to economically feasible.

Now, one place we are seeing replacement of workers is in order placement/checkout. That's a great deal easier, and just became a great deal more viable.

It won't take long for the technology to surpass the price point. As you said, it is there already. And why we know is that computers get better yearly pretty much. The other step will be in automation. We already have pizza vending machines. How long till a Jack in the Box is actually a Jack in the Box?

 

[Neomalthusian]

Yes, can but haven't. The barrier isn't price. It's getting the technology to a point where the consumer is comfortable enough with it to skip the human interaction. The reason you don't see any "magic moment" is that for most tasks, we already past it. The barrier isn't price.

You're making up these overgeneralizations in an attempt to deny and minimize the downsides of raising the minimum wage.

Computers are cheaper than people. If a computer can do it, the computer can do it cheaper.

Another baseless sweeping generalization. This isn't even close to true.

The only issue is that computers can't actually do everything. If McDonald's could implement an AutoBurger5000, they would. Problem is that it's tough to make a machine successfully assemble a cheeseburger without human intervention.

Where do you guys come up with this stuff? You just make it up off the top of your head so that you can continue pretending raising the minimum wage has zero downside.

And nobody is pretending there's zero effect on labor.

You are. You're stuffing your head into the sand and insisting the price of labor has no effect on the decision to instead buy and use its alternative, and repeatedly claim everything that can be automated already is, and that everything that isn't, can't be. This is absurd flat away.

 

[ludin]

and Big Mac's will jump a quarter in price and no one will even notice. Big f'ing deal.

no they will just 2 or 3 dollars at minimum.

 

[ludin]

Rises in San Fran chipotle prices will lead to.....



:lol:

thank you for showing that you were wrong.

 

[Citizen.Seven]

Well yes if you just make up numbers to prove your point, you can certainly prove your point.

Why does this machine cost $50k/year to operate? (and remember, this has to be purely additional costs from the machinery. You don't get to count purchasing the food or heating costs because those are costs already associated with burger making)

On-going maintenance, repairs, upgrades, etc. I suspect the model for manufacturers of such devices would be to sell them at cost or low profit, and make up for it with maintenance contracts. It also means the RD cost would be lower: it's a great deal easier to design and build a reliable device that will be maintenanced monthly than one is "set and forget", or even user serviceable.

And yes, I did estimate numbers, but that is what is required to determine at what wage price point it makes sense to replace workers. Few people are professionally weaving fabric by hand anymore, because even million dollar industrial grade machines are more economical per unit cost.

Another example: it is eminently feasible to develop an automated lawn mower, sort of a beefed up roomba with blades. However, a reasonably reliable and safe one would probably cost multiple thousands if not tens, plus maintenance and operating costs. It's a hard sell when a 200 dollar mower and 20 bucks for a teenager will get your lawn cut every week for the foreseeable future.

Now, at 7.50 an hour, there doesn't seem to be an economic incentive to replace workers. At 15, certain classes of jobs it doesn't make sense not to replace them. We've seen that to some extent with cashiers, as well as bank tellers, and fast food places are ripe for that sort of mass adoption. After all, the order takers are essentially just hitting pictures on a touch screen. Most consumers could handle that. Hell, some places you can do your order via phone app or online, and just swing by to pick it up.

 

[Thrilla]

so you are looking for advantage, over those who cannot bare the 15 bucks an hour.

I'm always looking for advantage and opportunity....

 

[Master PO]

I'm always looking for advantage and opportunity....

nothing wrong with that, i hope your ventures pay off.

 

[Thrilla]

nothing wrong with that, i hope your ventures pay off.

we'll see what comes, but i hope it plays out well too.

to clarify, these aren't "my" ventures.. they are company ventures.
nothing changes for me personally...I'm just a free consultant to my company, nothing more. ( I still pull the strings, but I don't pull a salary)