[W:128] Iran protests: could this be the beginning of the end for the Islamic Republic?

[Tigerace117]

View attachment 67414992​

Before 1979 Iran was also under the rule of a repressive, brutal regime.

Something to keep in mind.

 

[bomberfox]

It’s no secret that the Islamic Republic of Iran is deeply unpopular in Iran, especially among the more educated and urban areas of the country (which are not insignificant). But some recent events, including overzealous enforcement of “morality” for a young woman accused of not covering her hair enough in public, are leading to an explosion of massive protests all over the country. And this time, it’s more than just limited to women, young people, or educated people. It seems to be across all sorts of demographics and social strata.

The protests are entering their 6th day now.

Of course, in the past, these protests have always been put down by massively brutal and deadly crackdowns by the regime. The government has already shut down the internet in the country. But this looks like it’s going to be as big as the “green movement” of 2009.

It’s interesting this is not being covered so much by western media. It might be the beginning of some big changes there. I guess we will see.

Possibly not. Reformism is a very effective means of quelling revolutions. The way we idolize our system is something that is shared in many countries. This is a sign, however, that younger generations are viewing reformism as merely a way of maintaining oppressive power structures.

 

[bomberfox]

The clerics will never step down to satisfy the will of the people because they answers only to God. They will have to be overthrown.

Institutional trust is one hell of a drug.

 

[bomberfox]

Huh? You are cheering on the Islamic clergy of Iran to crush their own people protesting the death of a woman who was not covering her hair enough?

You like Islamic clergy THAT much?

Yep that one just likes oppressive power structures.

 

[ataraxia]

Before 1979 Iran was also under the rule of a repressive, brutal regime.

Something to keep in mind.

Yeah, but it was NOTHING like what they have now. Talk about out of the frying pan into the fire.

 

[Tigerace117]

Yeah, but it was NOTHING like what they have now. Talk about out of the frying pan into the fire.

View attachment 67415400

Actually, the Shah was pretty damn bad himself. Things were good for a small, vocal fraction of the Iranian populace— the same fraction which managed to make it out— so us Americans get a pretty rosy view of what life was like under his regime. In reality....not so much.

 

[ataraxia]

Actually, the Shah was pretty damn bad himself. Things were good for a small, vocal fraction of the Iranian populace— the same fraction which managed to make it out— so us Americans get a pretty rosy view of what life was like under his regime. In reality....not so much.

I am not sure about that. He had extensive programs to educate the rural areas of the country. He was trying to implement a lot of democratic reforms and a program of secularization.

But the clerics have traditionally had very powerful hands on political power in Iran. They saw this as a threat on their power. They have a powerful hold on the uneducated people there, of which there were, and still are, lots.

It makes you appreciate the founders of this country getting religion out of the public sphere so much when you see things like this.

"Mingling religion with politics may be disavowed and reprobated by every inhabitant of America...All national institutions of churches, whether Jewish, Christian, or Turkish (Muslim), appear to me no other than human inventions set up to terrify and enslave mankind, and monopolize power and profit."
-Thomas Paine

"During almost fifteen centuries has the legal establishment of Christianity been on trial. What have been its fruits? More or less in all places, pride and indolence in the Clergy, ignorance and servility in the laity, in both, superstition, bigotry and persecution...In some instances they have been seen to erect a spiritual tyranny on the ruins of the Civil authority; in many instances they have been seen upholding the thrones of political tyranny: in no instance have they been seen the guardians of the liberties of the people. Rulers who wished to subvert the public liberty, may have found an established Clergy convenient auxiliaries. A just Government instituted to secure & perpetuate it needs them not.”
-James Madison
_________________
This is what I call learning from your mistakes. The founders of this country, and also of most western countries, learned this after a lot of hard lessons from all the religious wars and strife and massacres, especially the 30 Years' War in Europe. A lot of the middle east (actually pretty much all of it, except maybe Turkey for a little while after WWI) has not learned those lessons yet. But reality is a harsh teacher. The beatings will continue until the lesson is learned.

 

[Tigerace117]

I am not sure about that. He had extensive programs to educate the rural areas of the country. He was trying to implement a lot of democratic reforms and a program of secularization.

But the clerics have traditionally had very powerful hands on political power in Iran. They saw this as a threat on their power. They have a powerful hold on the uneducated people there, of which there were, and still are, lots.

It makes you appreciate the founders of this country getting religion out of the public sphere so much when you see things like this.

"Mingling religion with politics may be disavowed and reprobated by every inhabitant of America...All national institutions of churches, whether Jewish, Christian, or Turkish (Muslim), appear to me no other than human inventions set up to terrify and enslave mankind, and monopolize power and profit."
-Thomas Paine

"During almost fifteen centuries has the legal establishment of Christianity been on trial. What have been its fruits? More or less in all places, pride and indolence in the Clergy, ignorance and servility in the laity, in both, superstition, bigotry and persecution...In some instances they have been seen to erect a spiritual tyranny on the ruins of the Civil authority; in many instances they have been seen upholding the thrones of political tyranny: in no instance have they been seen the guardians of the liberties of the people. Rulers who wished to subvert the public liberty, may have found an established Clergy convenient auxiliaries. A just Government instituted to secure & perpetuate it needs them not.”
-James Madison
_________________
This is what I call learning from your mistakes. The founders of this country, and also of most western countries, learned this after a lot of hard lessons from all the religious wars and strife and massacres, especially the 30 Years' War in Europe. A lot of the middle east (actually pretty much all of it, except maybe Turkey for a little while after WWI) has not learned those lessons yet. But reality is a harsh teacher. The beatings will continue until the lesson is learned.

The Shah engaged in large scale repression for years.

“According to a senior SAVAK officer, after the Siahkal attack interrogators were sent abroad for `scientific training to prevent unwanted deaths from "brute force".`[33] Methods of torture included sleep deprivation; extensive solitary confinement; glaring searchlights; standing in one place for hours on end; nail extractions; snakes (favored for use with women); electrical shocks with cattle prods, often into the rectum; cigarette burns; sitting on hot grills; acid dripped into nostrils; near-drownings; mock executions; and an electric chair with a large metal mask to muffle screams. Prisoners were also humiliated by being raped, urinated on, and forced to stand naked.[34] However, the torture method of choice remained the traditional bastinado used to beat the soles of the feet.[34]

Torture was used to locate arms caches, safe houses and accomplices of the guerrillas, but another incident in 1971 led to the use of torture of political prisoners for another purpose. In 1971, a prisoner, Parviz Nikkhah, serving a ten-year prison sentence for communist subversion "experienced a genuine change of heart." He "astounded" the public by coming out in full support of the regime, starting a career working for the government Radio-Television Network" explaining how the Shah was a "true revolutionary".[35] So impressed was the regime with this conversion and its impact, it "did not take it long to go one step further and `induce` other `conversions.`"[36]

By the end of 1975, twenty-two prominent poets, novelist, professors, theater directors, and film makers were in jail for criticizing the regime. And many others had been physically attacked for refusing to cooperate with the authorities.[37]”

Human rights in the Imperial State of Iran - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

But thank you for proving the point perfectly. The Shah’s abuses are handwaved away with cries of “but at least he was secularizing” and “the next guys were worse!”.....which isn’t actually an excuse.

 

[ataraxia]

The Shah engaged in large scale repression for years.

“According to a senior SAVAK officer, after the Siahkal attack interrogators were sent abroad for `scientific training to prevent unwanted deaths from "brute force".`[33] Methods of torture included sleep deprivation; extensive solitary confinement; glaring searchlights; standing in one place for hours on end; nail extractions; snakes (favored for use with women); electrical shocks with cattle prods, often into the rectum; cigarette burns; sitting on hot grills; acid dripped into nostrils; near-drownings; mock executions; and an electric chair with a large metal mask to muffle screams. Prisoners were also humiliated by being raped, urinated on, and forced to stand naked.[34] However, the torture method of choice remained the traditional bastinado used to beat the soles of the feet.[34]

Torture was used to locate arms caches, safe houses and accomplices of the guerrillas, but another incident in 1971 led to the use of torture of political prisoners for another purpose. In 1971, a prisoner, Parviz Nikkhah, serving a ten-year prison sentence for communist subversion "experienced a genuine change of heart." He "astounded" the public by coming out in full support of the regime, starting a career working for the government Radio-Television Network" explaining how the Shah was a "true revolutionary".[35] So impressed was the regime with this conversion and its impact, it "did not take it long to go one step further and `induce` other `conversions.`"[36]

By the end of 1975, twenty-two prominent poets, novelist, professors, theater directors, and film makers were in jail for criticizing the regime. And many others had been physically attacked for refusing to cooperate with the authorities.[37]”

Human rights in the Imperial State of Iran - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

But thank you for proving the point perfectly. The Shah’s abuses are handwaved away with cries of “but at least he was secularizing” and “the next guys were worse!”.....which isn’t actually an excuse.

Well, whatever the case, if this current regime goes. It’s not at all clear that it will go to something better. Political upheaval and revolutions are always highly unpredictable, and seldom with ultimately good results. I know everyone is being really hopeful, but there’s a good chance even if they get a chance to get rid of this current regime, they could ultimately end up with something even worse.

 

[joluoto]

The Revolutionary Guard will try to protect their rule with force. So it will get ugly.

 

[ataraxia]

The Revolutionary Guard will try to protect their rule with force. So it will get ugly.

They will likely succeed too. Yet again. It’s hard for civilians to argue with tanks and machine guns.

The best chance is if the army rises in a coup to support the people this time.

 

[anatta]

We are all Mahsa Amini.

Since her death, thousands have taken to the streets in a show of rage and solidarity that is rare even for a country that has known many such tumultuous moments. More than some past uprisings against the regime, this one has been remarkably broad-based and inclusive. The affluent residents of north Tehran have come out alongside the poor ones from the city’s south side. The youth are there—and so are their parents, even their grandparents. The metropolitan people are out, and so are the small-town folk.

The women of Iran are at the forefront—they who have most consistently resisted the regime’s tyranny and persisted in rebutting the myth that the hijab is an Iranian tradition. The sight of all the men at their side is a sign of the near-universal disdain for the regime’s official misogyny. With the risks these citizens are taking and the sacrifices they are making, they are proving that if any tradition needs defending 24 hours a day by armed men who have to beat people to embrace it, then it deserves to perish.

Even the celebrities who kept silent in the past are speaking up.

MSN

www.msn.com

 

[joluoto]

Iran: Classes suspended at university amid clashes​

Apparently students clashed with security forces at Therean University.

 

[ataraxia]

We are all Mahsa Amini.

Since her death, thousands have taken to the streets in a show of rage and solidarity that is rare even for a country that has known many such tumultuous moments. More than some past uprisings against the regime, this one has been remarkably broad-based and inclusive. The affluent residents of north Tehran have come out alongside the poor ones from the city’s south side. The youth are there—and so are their parents, even their grandparents. The metropolitan people are out, and so are the small-town folk.

The women of Iran are at the forefront—they who have most consistently resisted the regime’s tyranny and persisted in rebutting the myth that the hijab is an Iranian tradition. The sight of all the men at their side is a sign of the near-universal disdain for the regime’s official misogyny. With the risks these citizens are taking and the sacrifices they are making, they are proving that if any tradition needs defending 24 hours a day by armed men who have to beat people to embrace it, then it deserves to perish.

Even the celebrities who kept silent in the past are speaking up.

MSN

www.msn.com

What's really going to make or break this is if there is an armed uprising- like the military itself rising in a coup. Otherwise, as broad based as all this is, I just don't see how all this could go anywhere. How would such a scenario even look like?

It's hard for unarmed people to argue and debate with tanks and machine guns.

 

[joluoto]

Iran protests: Schoolgirls heckle paramilitary speaker​

So a member of the Basij force was apparently invited to speak in a high school, and the students shouted "get lost".

 

[ataraxia]

Huh. I don’t know what to think anymore. What does everyone think of these latest news articles? These protests may indeed be something quite different from previous ones:

“For weeks, a nationwide protest movement has relentlessly gathered momentum and appears to have blunted the government’s decades-old intimidation tactics. Slogans against the clerical leadership echo throughout the city. Videos of schoolgirls waving their headscarves in the air as they sing protest songs in classrooms have gone viral, as have images of protesters fighting back against members of the formidable paramilitary group Basij.

These are scenes previously believed to be unthinkable in Iran, where the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei rules with an iron fist. But experts say that these protests transcend Iran’s many social and ethnic divisions, breaking a decades-old barrier of fear and posing an unprecedented threat to the regime.

Across Iran, protesters seem intent on exposing the weaknesses of a clerical establishment which is widely accused of corruption and has stamped out dissent with arbitrary detentions and even mass executions.”

A barrier of fear has been broken in Iran. The regime may be at a point of no return | CNN

Iran's latest protests transcend Iran's many social and ethnic divisions, breaking a decades-old barrier of fear and posing an unprecedented threat to the regime.

www.cnn.com

 

[ataraxia]

“‘This is not the end’
Anti-regime demonstrations have also penetrated the Islamic Republic’s power bases, including the Shia holy cities of Mashhad and Qom. Ethnic minorities — notably Kurds in the country’s north and northwest, and Baloch people in the southeast — have also staged protests, enduring what appear to be some of the most brutal crackdowns, with scores reportedly killed.

Secondary schools and universities around the country are flashpoints, and women and girls have been taking off their mandatory headscarves, known as hijabs.

“These terrorists think that our generation is the previous generation. We are not. Let me assure you,” a protester from Tehran’s prestigious Sharif University of Technology told CNN, referring to Iranian police who had violently cracked down on demonstrators on campus, and detained scores of young people.

“If the dust settles and we stop protesting, they are going to kill even more of us. They are going to detain even more people and they are going to turn us to North Korea,” the impassioned protester said. “This is not the end. I promise you that.”

A barrier of fear has been broken in Iran. The regime may be at a point of no return | CNN

Iran's latest protests transcend Iran's many social and ethnic divisions, breaking a decades-old barrier of fear and posing an unprecedented threat to the regime.

www.cnn.com

 

[ataraxia]

Most interestingly,

“An existential threat
The threat posed by these protests, analysts say, is existential to the regime, and is one of the biggest challenges the Islamic Republic has faced in years.

“These are primarily very, very young people, a younger generation who have apparently completely lost faith that this Islamic Republic can be reformed,” said Trita Parsi, executive vice-president at the Washington, DC-based Quincy Institute.

“They’re breaking from their previous generation who was seeking to reform the system from within,” Parsi added. “This new generation seems to not have any faith in that at all.”

The current protests may eventually be quashed or simply lose momentum, but analysts say Iran can expect another cycle of nationwide demonstrations in months to come. The latest demonstrations follow similar, but less widespread, protests against the government in 2019, 2017 and 2009.

“The protests transcend social sectarian boundaries, bringing together a much broader strata of Iranian society than we have seen in years,” said Ali Vaez, director of the International Crisis Group’s Iran Project. “But they suffer from the same shortcomings that the previous movements in Iran also suffered from. Primarily, the lack of leadership.

“It’s very difficult to be able to maintain and sustain a movement that over the long run will bring the regime to its knees without coordination and leadership,” Vaez said.

Still, the protesters appear bolder than ever, sensing a window of opportunity that could quickly close as Iran appears to near development of a nuclear weapon, which would both entrench the regime’s grip on power and deepen its isolation.

This is the scenario that anti-regime Iranians are trying desperately to avoid, said Vaez.

“The only thing worse than a regime that kills and represses its own people is a regime with a nuclear weapon and that kills and represses its own people,” he said.”

A barrier of fear has been broken in Iran. The regime may be at a point of no return | CNN

Iran's latest protests transcend Iran's many social and ethnic divisions, breaking a decades-old barrier of fear and posing an unprecedented threat to the regime.

www.cnn.com

 

[stevecanuck]

Hmmm, I wonder if the younger generation is less religiously adherent than their parents, and therefore unhappy living in a theocracy. That would be great if so.

 

[TypicalRussian]

LMAO NO. These are socialist kurds who are pro-israel. Actual ethnic persians love the Republic

 

[post]

It’s no secret that the Islamic Republic of Iran is deeply unpopular in Iran, especially among the more educated and urban areas of the country (which are not insignificant). But some recent events, including overzealous enforcement of “morality” for a young woman accused of not covering her hair enough in public, are leading to an explosion of massive protests all over the country. And this time, it’s more than just limited to women, young people, or educated people. It seems to be across all sorts of demographics and social strata.

The protests are entering their 6th day now.

Of course, in the past, these protests have always been put down by massively brutal and deadly crackdowns by the regime. The government has already shut down the internet in the country. But this looks like it’s going to be as big as the “green movement” of 2009.

It’s interesting this is not being covered so much by western media. It might be the beginning of some big changes there. I guess we will see.

If the G.O.P. we're in charge of the executive branch, the institutional history of the CIA, Dept. of State and G.O.P. oligarchs in response to regime change in Iran, would likely overnight result in this woman and her husband in the roles of Head of State and first lady and "princess".

Would this be a bad compromise for the Iranian people? The present situation and this alternative, as legitimate as any "off the shelve" solution,
influence me to support it. It speaks to how few practical options exist.

Yasmine Pahlavi - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[ataraxia]

Update:

These protests are not stopping, and now expanding to workers in the vital
Petrochemical industry:

“The demonstrations marked the first time the unrest that began last month has spread to Iran’s oil-and-gas industry. Before this, it was mostly retail outlets and small businesses that had closed their doors in support of the rights movement…

The growing protests in southern Iran came as gunfire continued early Monday in the city Sanandaj, the capital of Iran’s Kurdistan province, and the village of Salas Babajani near the border with Iraq, according to Hengaw Organization for Human Rights, a Kurdish human-rights group.

The organization posted footage showing smoke rising in Sanandaj and what sounded like rapid rifle fire.“

Iran Oil Workers Strike as Antigovernment Protests Expand

Antigovernment demonstrations, now in their fourth week, broadened to a critical sector of the economy, and the U.K. imposed sanctions for alleged human-rights violations.

www.wsj.com

————-
This seems like it’s continuing to grow, not go away- despite an increasingly brutal government crackdown.

 

[yankintx]

We are not seeing the millions on the streets required to overthrow the current leadership.

I recall the Islamic Revolution. Millions protesting the Shah, he too was brutal, but fled the masses when it became a tidal wave.

Same in Philippines, people power ousted Marcos.

We are just not seeing those numbers to make it overwhelming.

 

[joluoto]

We are not seeing the millions on the streets required to overthrow the current leadership.

I recall the Islamic Revolution. Millions protesting the Shah, he too was brutal, but fled the masses when it became a tidal wave.

Same in Philippines, people power ousted Marcos.

We are just not seeing those numbers to make it overwhelming.

...yet. But I agree, right now there are not enough people protesting for the armed forces to not side with the government.

 

[ataraxia]

We are not seeing the millions on the streets required to overthrow the current leadership.

I recall the Islamic Revolution. Millions protesting the Shah, he too was brutal, but fled the masses when it became a tidal wave.

Same in Philippines, people power ousted Marcos.

We are just not seeing those numbers to make it overwhelming.

The difference between now and the time of the Shah is that the Shah had reservations about killing too many people. These guys don’t care.