[W:128] Iran protests: could this be the beginning of the end for the Islamic Republic?

[ataraxia]

It’s no secret that the Islamic Republic of Iran is deeply unpopular in Iran, especially among the more educated and urban areas of the country (which are not insignificant). But some recent events, including overzealous enforcement of “morality” for a young woman accused of not covering her hair enough in public, are leading to an explosion of massive protests all over the country. And this time, it’s more than just limited to women, young people, or educated people. It seems to be across all sorts of demographics and social strata.

The protests are entering their 6th day now.

Of course, in the past, these protests have always been put down by massively brutal and deadly crackdowns by the regime. The government has already shut down the internet in the country. But this looks like it’s going to be as big as the “green movement” of 2009.

It’s interesting this is not being covered so much by western media. It might be the beginning of some big changes there. I guess we will see.

 

[Mr Person]

The last one wasn't. I wouldn't hope. I suspect brutal crackdowns may be coming.

 

[ataraxia]

The last one wasn't. I wouldn't hope. I suspect brutal crackdowns may be coming.

You may unfortunately be right. The only hope might be if a sizeably significant part of the military turns on them and out engages in a coup d’etat. And I don’t see that happening anytime soon.

But these look like they are HUGE protests in multiple cities and provinces.

 

[Sweden]

You may unfortunately be right. The only hope might be if a sizeably significant part of the military turns on them and out engages in a coup d’etat. And I don’t see that happening anytime soon.

But these look like they are HUGE protests in multiple cities and provinces.

I fear that the protests come from the shallow layer of educated and internationally aware at the top of of the Iranian population, and that the rest, something like 95%, will continue to support Islam and the theocracy.

So it was in my time in Iran - 1967-70 - and I do not think there has been any fundamental change., especially as so many enlightened Iranians have left the country.

 

[RetiredUSN]

The Revolutionary Guard will end up shooting a few dozen people and the whack job Mullah's will go back to business as usual.

Rinse & Repeat every 5-6 years or so.

 

[Cameron]

Maybe when the Supreme Leader dies. Until then I'm not holding my breath.

 

[ataraxia]

Maybe when the Supreme Leader dies. Until then I'm not holding my breath.

That’s what they used to say about Khomeini. But the iron grip of these mullahs is astonishing.

 

[reinaert]

No. Nothing happens until sanctions end. Sanctions strengthen the current regime in Tehran.

 

[Jredbaron96]

Iran's complex governmental system and multiple, sometimes overlapping layers of power, make it difficult at times to determine what might the outcome of protests be. It could very well lead to major reforms, but again given the complex nature of the Iranian Government these may not appear as much to the outside observer.

 

[ataraxia]

I fear that the protests come from the shallow layer of educated and internationally aware at the top of of the Iranian population, and that the rest, something like 95%, will continue to support Islam and the theocracy.

So it was in my time in Iran - 1967-70 - and I do not think there has been any fundamental change., especially as so many enlightened Iranians have left the country.

I’m not sure about that anymore. These protests look like they may be different. Years of economic stagnation and hardship have left the working class devastated and hurting. unlike the green movement in 2009, these protests seem to be coming from a much broader base of the population:

“The outbreak and nature of the unrest have taken many analysts of Iranian politics by surprise. Rather than emerging from liberal Tehran, these protests appear to have originated in working-class conservative cities and towns that the Islamic Republic likes to depict as its core constituency. One group of people, however, has long expected such an outbreak of discontent from the economically disadvantaged people in these areas: Iranian labor activists.

“Working people in Iran have been dreaming of a better life for four decades, but today ordinary people often have to work two or three jobs simply to survive,” says Mehdi Kouhestaninejad, a longtime Iranian trade unionist now living in Canada, who is active in the international solidarity movement for workers’ rights in Iran. “Many people inside and outside Iran may be shocked by what is going on, but trade unionists have been warning for the past 10 years that there will be an uprising against the ruling class and their kleptocracy.”

Unlike the 2009 Green Movement, which was largely a product of the educated, urban Tehrani middle class, the recent protests in Iran appear to reflect the anger of the country’s working-class masses. As Iranians grapple with high inflation, unemployment, and economic corruption, the burden of these problems has fallen most heavily on young people who lack the political connections to survive, let alone raise their standard of living.

The latest protests also erupted from an unclear place in terms of Iran’s political spectrum: While the Green Movement was rallying around reformist politics and its leadership in Mir Hossein Mousavi, the latest protests have seen chants cursing just about every actor and political affiliation in Iran. There were frequent changes of “death to Rouhani” — referring to Iran’s reform-minded centrist president, Hassan Rouhani, whom young Tehranis have repeatedly poured into the streets to support.”

IN RESPONSE TO the protests, five Iranian labor organizations released a statement calling for “an end to poverty and misery” in the country and urging the government to enact economic reforms. But while labor groups have supported the protests, it is unclear to what extent they have been involved in actually directing them.”

Protests in Iran Took Many By Surprise — But Not Iranian Labor Activists

Labor activists have been warning about the creeping inequality and deteriorating conditions for the working class across Iran.

theintercept.com

 

[ataraxia]

No. Nothing happens until sanctions end. Sanctions strengthen the current regime in Tehran.

Some Iranian Americans are Trump supporters because they really think the sanctions hurt the Islamic republic, and think if Obama had only put these sanctions in place in 2009 during the green movement, that would’ve been the end of the Islamic government. They blame Obama for easing sanctions to help keep the regime artificially propped up for so many years since then.

Trump almost went to war with Iran. Here's why these Iranian Americans will vote for him

***

www.haaretz.com

 

[Tigerace117]

Some Iranian Americans are Trump supporters because they really think the sanctions hurt the Islamic republic, and think if Obama had only put these sanctions in place in 2009 during the green movement, that would’ve been the end of the Islamic government. They blame Obama for easing sanctions to help keep the regime artificially propped up for so many years since then.

Trump almost went to war with Iran. Here's why these Iranian Americans will vote for him

***

www.haaretz.com

That’s much like the Cubans still horrified Batista got run out of town. The sanctions make the exiles feel better, but on the actual ground they only strengthen the people’s support for the regime. It’s better than war, but it’s not likely to create regime change.

 

[reinaert]

Some Iranian Americans are Trump supporters because they really think the sanctions hurt the Islamic republic, and think if Obama had only put these sanctions in place in 2009 during the green movement, that would’ve been the end of the Islamic government. They blame Obama for easing sanctions to help keep the regime artificially propped up for so many years since then.

Trump almost went to war with Iran. Here's why these Iranian Americans will vote for him

***

www.haaretz.com

Regimes have way better population control. Sanctions don't force uprisings, anymore.

 

[ataraxia]

Regimes have way better population control. Sanctions don't force uprisings, anymore.

A lot of Iranians now living abroad have become completely paranoid and conspiracy-minded about western intervention in their country- after all the 19th century attempts at colonialism and interference in their internal politics (although they were never formally colonized), and brazen 20th century interventions and intrusions such as operation Ajax. So now many of them blame everything that happens domestically on the west (especially the US and the UK). They think the west is trying to keep their country down on purpose just to ensure cheap oil, and the Islamic Republic is just a puppet regime of the west and continues to be propped up by them. So when Trump announced the sanctions and was ready to go to war and bomb them, they were overjoyed that maybe perhaps the US was withdrawing its support of the Islamic Republic. They were actually cheering on and hoping for Trump to go bomb the regime out of the water, and were disappointed when he changed his mind last minute. But that's why some of them liked Trump so much. In Biden, they see the shadow of Carter, whom they blame for not doing more to help keep the Shah in power in 1979- and in fact blame him for orchestrating his downfall, just to get cheaper oil prices out of OPEC.

 

[reinaert]

A lot of Iranians now living abroad have become completely paranoid and conspiracy-minded about western intervention in their country- after all the 19th century attempts at colonialism and interference in their internal politics (although they were never formally colonized), and brazen 20th century interventions and intrusions such as operation Ajax. So now many of them blame everything that happens domestically on the west (especially the US and the UK). They think the west is trying to keep their country down on purpose just to ensure cheap oil, and the Islamic Republic is just a puppet regime of the west and continues to be propped up by them. So when Trump announced the sanctions and was ready to go to war and bomb them, they were overjoyed that maybe perhaps the US was withdrawing its support of the Islamic Republic. They were actually cheering on and hoping for Trump to go bomb the regime out of the water, and were disappointed when he changed his mind last minute. But that's why some of them liked Trump so much. In Biden, they see the shadow of Carter, whom they blame for not doing more to help keep the Shah in power in 1979- and in fact blame him for orchestrating his downfall, just to get cheaper oil prices out of OPEC.

All I have are anecdotes. I cannot really speak to a diaspora consensus. The Iranians I know are either work related clients or friends with whom I practice my Farsi. But it is not my personal experience that Persians are, as a rule, any more or less conspiratorial in their thinking than Ukrainians, Nigerians or Floridians. Admittedly, if you are Persian in the US and in New England, your family probably made it to Canada before 1980, and so you probably aren't someone with negative childhood stories about SAVAK and the Shah, so...

 

[ColdHardTruth]

The last one wasn't. I wouldn't hope. I suspect brutal crackdowns may be coming.

Knowing the terrorists who run the government of Iran, this is probably true.

They are not going to like their bad behavior being shared with the world.

I have long been in favor of their current regime being removed from power.

 

[reinaert]

Knowing the terrorists who run the government of Iran, this is probably true.

They are not going to like their bad behavior being shared with the world.

I have long been in favor of their current regime being removed from power.

There are five more or less equally footed power centers in Iran. They will not all be replaced even in the most favorable of color revolutions.

The key to Tehran is integration with European economies, not meddling. Persians are not adversaries of the tolerant/open society nexus. But their current overlords also aren't all that easy to just handwave away, and London and Washington would have to be willing to answer for past errors before Tehran/Qom would risk another embarrassment. The people who run Iran are some fairly autocratic bastards, but they are not stupid.

 

[ColdHardTruth]

There are five more or less equally footed power centers in Iran. They will not all be replaced even in the most favorable of color revolutions.

The key to Tehran is integration with European economies, not meddling. Persians are not adversaries of the tolerant/open society nexus. But their current overlords also aren't all that easy to just handwave away, and London and Washington would have to be willing to answer for past errors before Tehran/Qom would risk another embarrassment. The people who run Iran are some fairly autocratic bastards, but they are not stupid.

This I am aware of. They need to know their current behaviors are offensive to the rest of the world and they need to understand that most of the world sees them as backward barbarians.

 

[reinaert]

This I am aware of. They need to know their current behaviors are offensive to the rest of the world and they need to understand that most of the world sees them as backward barbarians.

I would be wary of the 'rest of world' claim. Tehran gets along favorably with states that comprise close to half the human race

 

[ataraxia]

Knowing the terrorists who run the government of Iran, this is probably true.

They are not going to like their bad behavior being shared with the world.

I have long been in favor of their current regime being removed from power.

Removed by whom?

At this point, if anyone externally tries to meddle in the internal politics of Iran, it risks increasing the support for the regime. It’s going to have to come from the inside. Only way I see that happening is that the military rises up against the regime and overthrows it by force- a military coup. It doesn’t matter what the people say or want. It’s hard for civilians to argue with tanks and machine guns.

 

[jmotivator]

The last one wasn't. I wouldn't hope. I suspect brutal crackdowns may be coming.

Soleimani used to be the organization and brains wielding the Iranian Regime's iron fist.

It would appear that the Iranian people aren't as afraid this time now that he is scattered to the wind.

 

[ataraxia]

Soleimani used to be the organization and brains wielding the Iranian Regime's iron fist.

It would appear that the Iranian people aren't as afraid this time now that he is scattered to the wind.

I’m not sure that’s the critical factor here. There are many just like him in the regime. This new Raisi guy they have for “president” is a professional killer.

 

[jmotivator]

I’m not sure that’s the critical factor here. There are many just like him in the regime. This new Raisi guy they have for “president” is a professional killer.

Not all professional killers are as competent as Soleimani was. He was the brains within the regime for covert operations both within and outside the country. After several failed attempts to kill him his Quds force saw him as almost a divine figure, admired, loved and, most importantly, feared. He was the evil soul of the Quds. This is the first real test without him and they are breaking.

 

[ataraxia]

Not all professional killers are as competent as Soleimani was. He was the brains within the regime for covert operations both within and outside the country. After several failed attempts to kill him his Quds force saw him as almost a divine figure, admired, loved and, most importantly, feared. He was the evil soul of the Quds. This is the first real test without him and they are breaking.

Breaking? I don't know about that. I guess we shall see.

But just for the record, I hope you're right.

 

[mrjurrs]

It’s no secret that the Islamic Republic of Iran is deeply unpopular in Iran, especially among the more educated and urban areas of the country (which are not insignificant). But some recent events, including overzealous enforcement of “morality” for a young woman accused of not covering her hair enough in public, are leading to an explosion of massive protests all over the country. And this time, it’s more than just limited to women, young people, or educated people. It seems to be across all sorts of demographics and social strata.

The protests are entering their 6th day now.

Of course, in the past, these protests have always been put down by massively brutal and deadly crackdowns by the regime. The government has already shut down the internet in the country. But this looks like it’s going to be as big as the “green movement” of 2009.

It’s interesting this is not being covered so much by western media. It might be the beginning of some big changes there. I guess we will see.

Iran has had protests like these before. Up until now, the theocracy has withstood them. Remember however, the dictatorship always falls. While Iran claims to be democratic, they are not.

"The Islamic Republic of Iran holds elections regularly, but they fall short of democratic standards due in part to the influence of the hard-line Guardian Council, an unelected body that disqualifies all candidates it deems insufficiently loyal to the clerical establishment. Ultimate power rests in the hands of the country’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and the unelected institutions under his control. These institutions, including the security forces and the judiciary, play a major role in the suppression of dissent and other restrictions on civil liberties."

Iran: Freedom in the World 2020 Country Report | Freedom House

See the Freedom in the World 2020 score and learn about democracy and freedom in Iran.

freedomhouse.org