The Bradley Effect

[lincoln]

Well in the 2008 Pennsylvania Democratic primary there were 2336450 votes cast. Of those voters 67% were white democrats and 65% of those white democrats voted for Senator Clinton. 11% were black democrats and 90% of those black democrat voters voted for Senator Obama.

It is not a strech to conclude that race was a factor in peoples votes.

There are similar results in other states.

In a CNN exit poll of Pennsylvania, when asked if the race of the canidate was important to you 19% of voters said yes. Of those 19% of voters 59% voted for Senator Clinton.


Election Center 2008: Primary Exit Polls - Elections & Politics news from CNN.com


So, 19% of 2336450 is 443,925 and 59% of that is 261,916.

In 2004 Kerry won the state of Pennsylvania by about 145,000 votes.

A question would be of the 261,916 voters that cast their vote for Senator Clinton based on race, how many will vote for Obama in November?

 

[rsixing]

I think there are a lot of democrats in Ohio and Pa who will say they are voting for Obama but when they get in the ballot box they will vote for McCain and I know for a fact that the white middle class blue collar workers in those 2 battleground states whom Obama berated by calling the gun toting bible clutchers will be getting McCain's vote regardless of the party......

C'mon NP, the emboldened underline claim is totally spurious. You cannot "know for a fact" this is factual nor how they will vote. Good grief....

 

[the makeout hobo]

To say it is a myth is a liberal downplay as it is proven.

Really? Prove it. Show me facts and numbers from the 2000's that prove it.

 

[the makeout hobo]

All I can say is to win Obama better have a double digit lead in the polls on election day because if he doesn't he will lose.....It is sad but I would say that at least 10 to 15 percent of the people in this country would never vote for a black person for president............Most of them would not even vote for a black person for dog catcher.............

Navy, are we going to do this again? I've asked you to show me the numbers that prove the Bradley Effect is still in effect. Do you have the facts on your side or not? If you do, please share with the class.

Just curious what percent of the electorate do you think will not vote for Obama because he is black.........

I will break it down by region:

North 5 to 10 Percent
South 25 percent........
Average about 10 to 15 percent

Where'd you get these numbers from? It looks like you just made them up.

 

[Kandahar]

Why does the Midwest get written off as racist? We're certainly not San Fransico, but we're definitely not Alabama.

When I say "Midwest," I'm not referring to South Dakota. I'm referring to the Rust Belt. Primarily Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Ohio, Michigan, and Indiana. There is an enormous amount of racism in those states...probably rivaling the amount of racism in the Deep South.

 

[UtahBill]

I find it hard to believe that even an Ohio hillbilly would vote for McCain just because he is the white candidate. Where is the self interest? Don't we all want jobs and an economy that keeps us going? Has McCain promised jobs? No, he has suggested retraining for jobs, but for jobs that DON"T EXIST. I suppose like Al Gore, McCain will invent some for us...
Legislation can bring jobs back, by assessing tax penalties when jobs get exported, and tax credits when jobs are imported....
Our economy will suffer until we put people back to work, it really is that simple.

 

[Kandahar]

I find it hard to believe that even an Ohio hillbilly would vote for McCain just because he is the white candidate. Where is the self interest?

I don't think you can understand the mindset of some of these people unless you've lived in rural Ohio. A lot of people view "self-interest" in terms of racial preservation. Anything that helps blacks must naturally hurt whites, and vice versa.

For a lot of these people, which candidate has the best policies for America is of secondary importance to which candidate has the best policies for White America. Or even more bluntly, they think if Obama is elected, blacks across America would become more uppity.

I agree with Obama's assessment: "It’s not surprising then that they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy towards people who aren’t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations."

 

[missypea]

I find it hard to believe that even an Ohio hillbilly would vote for McCain just because he is the white candidate. Where is the self interest? Don't we all want jobs and an economy that keeps us going? Has McCain promised jobs? No, he has suggested retraining for jobs, but for jobs that DON"T EXIST. I suppose like Al Gore, McCain will invent some for us...
Legislation can bring jobs back, by assessing tax penalties when jobs get exported, and tax credits when jobs are imported....
Our economy will suffer until we put people back to work, it really is that simple.

I don't know about an Ohio hillbilly, but by neighbor could care less about the issues when it comes to voting for a black man. He wouldn't do it. Ever.

on edit: And this is up here in Blue Washington State....of course he's a transplant from Texas. He's been here about 40 years.

 

[Navy Pride]

C'mon NP, the emboldened underline claim is totally spurious. You cannot "know for a fact" this is factual nor how they will vote. Good grief....

I was born and raised in Western Pa. (Altoona where Obama bowled 39) and can tell you the people in that area are pissed at your boy and his elitist snobbish attitude.....The people there don't forget...........When he stuck his foot in his mouth and made that outrageous statement he lost thousands of voters and it has very little to do with racism.........

 

[Family Guy]

Well in the 2008 Pennsylvania Democratic primary there were 2336450 votes cast. Of those voters 67% were white democrats and 65% of those white democrats voted for Senator Clinton. 11% were black democrats and 90% of those black democrat voters voted for Senator Obama.

It is not a strech to conclude that race was a factor in peoples votes.

There are similar results in other states.

In a CNN exit poll of Pennsylvania, when asked if the race of the canidate was important to you 19% of voters said yes. Of those 19% of voters 59% voted for Senator Clinton.


Election Center 2008: Primary Exit Polls - Elections & Politics news from CNN.com


So, 19% of 2336450 is 443,925 and 59% of that is 261,916.

In 2004 Kerry won the state of Pennsylvania by about 145,000 votes.

A question would be of the 261,916 voters that cast their vote for Senator Clinton based on race, how many will vote for Obama in November?

Have you looked at the pols for PA? Obama has a commanding lead:

Poll Date Obama (D) McCain (R) Spread
RCP Average 09/27 - 10/07 53.4 39.6 Obama +13.8

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - Pennsylvania: McCain vs. Obama

See? The average of all the polls in PA show Obama has a 13.8% lead. That is virtually the same lead as in Illinois.

 

[Family Guy]

I was born and raised in Western Pa. (Altoona where Obama bowled 39) and can tell you the people in that area are pissed at your boy and his elitist snobbish attitude.....The people there don't forget...........When he stuck his foot in his mouth and made that outrageous statement he lost thousands of voters and it has very little to do with racism.........

Excuse me but how can you use the term "BOY" to describe Sen. Obama? What is that all about? I'm appalled.

 

[Panther]

What is that all about? I'm appalled.

Oh good Lord.

This is the ridiculous PC attitude that is making the Bradley Effect relevant all over again.

 

[rsixing]

I was born and raised in Western Pa. (Altoona where Obama bowled 39) and can tell you the people in that area are pissed at your boy and his elitist snobbish attitude.....The people there don't forget...........When he stuck his foot in his mouth and made that outrageous statement he lost thousands of voters and it has very little to do with racism.........

You have no way to prove your claim, which all of us knew from the beginning anyway NP, so you didn't really need to respond.

 

[Apostle13]

Really? Prove it. Show me facts and numbers from the 2000's that prove it.

It is proven by the example that gives its name... I never stated any recent accounts nor was that premised in the op... I had stated elsewhere it could only be accurately determined by hindsight / post election data.
It will be interesting to see whether or what effect it will have/not have this Nov.

 

[Kali]

I know a lot of white people that will be voting for Obama but are scared to tell they family. Sad

 

[Panther]

I know a lot of white people that will be voting for Obama but are scared to tell they family. Sad

I know black people that are voting for McCain and are afraid to tell anyone of their race. Even more sad.

 

[Tucker Case]

I know black people that are voting for McCain and are afraid to tell anyone of their race. Even more sad.

I know an asian guy who is afraid to admit he's not voting at all becuase he hates both races. So terrible.

 

[Panther]

I know an asian guy who is afraid to admit he's not voting at all becuase he hates both races. So terrible.

Bullcrap. Asians are pro-McCain. Never has an American candidate been on the ballot that lived in Asia for such a long period of time.

 

[winston53660]

Bullcrap. Asians are pro-McCain. Never has an American candidate been on the ballot that lived in Asia for such a long period of time.

You speak for all Asains?

 

[Tucker Case]

You speak for all Asains?

He was making a POW joke.

 

[Panther]

You speak for all Asains?

Yes.

His ties to the Asian community aren't even up for debate. Even during his convention, he had someone perform a country song in his honor titled "Asian McCain".

... and no, it wasn't actually called "Raisin McCain" like some would have you believe. Obviously, he wouldn't want to accentuate his age.

 

[Kali]

I know black people that are voting for McCain and are afraid to tell anyone of their race. Even more sad.

That is sad too.

 

[missypea]

I know a lot of white people that will be voting for Obama but are scared to tell they family.

I know black people that are voting for McCain and are afraid to tell anyone of their race. (

I think you're both correct and it's sad in both cases.

 

[Hatuey]

If Obama loses, it's because of racist people. If he wins, it's because of white guilt.

 

[Navy Pride]

Excuse me but how can you use the term "BOY" to describe Sen. Obama? What is that all about? I'm appalled.

Its easy, hes your boy your ccandidate for president now go ahead and make something racial about it.......:roll: