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The Bradley Effect

Bradley Effect

  • The Bradley Effect will have no impact on the election

    Votes: 10 27.8%
  • The Bradley Effect will squash Obama

    Votes: 3 8.3%
  • The Bradley Effect will squash McCain

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • The Bradley Effect may harm Obama

    Votes: 20 55.6%
  • The Bradley Effect may harm McCain

    Votes: 3 8.3%

  • Total voters
    36
Yeah, but he can handle an interview a whole lot better than Sarah "I'll get back to ya" Palin.

By the way, how's that statistical evidence of the Bradley Effect coming?

It has been less and less significant since Bradley, as black candidates have become more commonplace in a variety of offices across the country. Race has become less and less an issue.

What makes it more likely here in this election is the fact that race has been pushed to the forefront again as an issue. Many of the left's mouthpieces are putting the full court press on the notion that if you vote for McCain, you are a racist. That's exactly the atmosphere that causes the Bradley Effect to become a factor as people don't want to be honest to pollsters for fear of being viewed as a racist.
 
Palin has more management experience then Obama and he want to be prez..........

How is it, though, that she can't give a simple interview without coming off as retarded as a blathering idiot. I mean, that was probably the worst interview given in the history of modern campaigning.

Don't hold your breath my left wing friend.......You are probably the only person in the world who has not heard of the Bradley factor in the 1982 California Governors election...I guess there is one in every crowd.......

Navy, you are deliberately misreading my words. I know what the Bradley Effect is. What I am saying is that it is no longer a factor, having died out sometime in the 90's. I'm asking you to prove otherwise. **** or get off the pot, my friend. Back up your claims or stop spouting them.
 
It has been less and less significant since Bradley, as black candidates have become more commonplace in a variety of offices across the country. Race has become less and less an issue.

What makes it more likely here in this election is the fact that race has been pushed to the forefront again as an issue. Many of the left's mouthpieces are putting the full court press on the notion that if you vote for McCain, you are a racist. That's exactly the atmosphere that causes the Bradley Effect to become a factor as people don't want to be honest to pollsters for fear of being viewed as a racist.


Oh bull. Who on the Obama campaign has said "if you vote for McCain, your'e a racist"? They've said McCain might try to use the race card, but that's hardly the same thing. In addition, why would that make people vote for McCain but hide it from pollsters? I don't see why they'd lie to pollsters about it if the Obama campaign was turning them off.
 
Oh bull. Who on the Obama campaign has said "if you vote for McCain, your'e a racist"? They've said McCain might try to use the race card, but that's hardly the same thing. In addition, why would that make people vote for McCain but hide it from pollsters? I don't see why they'd lie to pollsters about it if the Obama campaign was turning them off.


Actually both Obama and Clinton have played the race card.......
 
Oh bull. Who on the Obama campaign has said "if you vote for McCain, your'e a racist"? They've said McCain might try to use the race card, but that's hardly the same thing. In addition, why would that make people vote for McCain but hide it from pollsters? I don't see why they'd lie to pollsters about it if the Obama campaign was turning them off.

I didn't say it came from the Obama campaign. It's coming from liberal mouthpieces like Bill Maher, the black Congressman a couple days ago, etc. The race factor is all over the MSM.

This is a similar environment to those early black vs. white campaigns more than the more recent campaigns that sometimes don't even have race as a factor the entire campaign.

Nobody knows if it will be, or how significant, a factor in this election until 11/5 - but to say that it is a non-factor when the climate is as it is - is naive.
 
I truly believe if Obama was not black we would have never heard of him......
I believe that you believe that but as in my short time here I've noticed how rare it is that you get the facts straight and, to be blunt, how wrong you are on a regular basis.

I'd like to suggest that you educate yourself by listening to Sen. Obama's speech from the 2004 Democratic convention (I'm guessing that you've never heard the entire speech) and then tell us how we never would have heard of him?

Perhaps here's an analogy that you will understand? Gov. Palin's speech in August at the Republican convention propelled her into the national spotlight and made her "known." The same can be said of Sen. Obama in 2004. Do you understand the parallel?
 
I didn't say it came from the Obama campaign. It's coming from liberal mouthpieces like Bill Maher, the black Congressman a couple days ago, etc. The race factor is all over the MSM.

This is a similar environment to those early black vs. white campaigns more than the more recent campaigns that sometimes don't even have race as a factor the entire campaign.

Nobody knows if it will be, or how significant, a factor in this election until 11/5 - but to say that it is a non-factor when the climate is as it is - is naive.

Please explain to me the thought process of these "bradley voters" that are claiming to be undecided but will vote for McCain because of a few idiots that have nothing to do with the Obama campaign. Please walk me through their logic, because I'm not getting it.
 
You did not get it...........:rofl

What don't I get? If this effect is real, you should be able to prove it by comparing exit polling to earlier polling. Isn't that how they proved it in 1982? Why can't you prove it? And if you can't prove it, why should be believe you when you say there is one?
 
What don't I get? If this effect is real, you should be able to prove it by comparing exit polling to earlier polling. Isn't that how they proved it in 1982? Why can't you prove it? And if you can't prove it, why should be believe you when you say there is one?
Well here's a new study from the University of Washington (isn't that where Navy Pride lives?) that claims in fact Obama is helped by a "reverse Bradley effect" that increases Obama's percentage:

Polls may underestimate Obama's support by 3 to 4 percent, researchers say

The title of the story is:

Polls may underestimate Obama's support by 3 to 4 percent, researchers say
 
Please explain to me the thought process of these "bradley voters" that are claiming to be undecided but will vote for McCain because of a few idiots that have nothing to do with the Obama campaign. Please walk me through their logic, because I'm not getting it.

Keep in mind that I'm not a "Bradley voter", but the thinking is this:

The Bradley voter would be a voter that plans on voting for McCain, but when asked by a pollster, they will say that he is voting for Obama (not "undecided"). The reason for this has nothing to do with whether or not they have a problem with race, it has to do with if they feel guilty for voting for a white guy over the black guy - or they believe they will be viewed as racist for picking the white guy.

Even most of my liberal, radical, partisan, democrat friends will agree that the political correctness pendulum has swung way to far to the extreme (perhaps a geographical anomaly). But nobody can deny the significance of PC in this country - often times overriding basic common sense. People walk on eggshells in all matters of race. There can be 50 people, 49 white, and when someone wants to point out the black guy, they'll be afraid to say the "black guy". They'll spend 2 minutes with 20 descriptors to try and point him out - it's ridiculous.

Bottom line, if you believe that political correctness influences peoples outward actions and comments, particularly when it is whites dealing with blacks - then you have to assume that there are people that will be afraid to tell someone (they don't know) that they are selecting a white guy over a black guy. How significant that is, is unknown - but it will be proportional to the degree that race has been made a factor in the election. Certainly, it has been a significant factor in this election because of the historical aspect of Obama's candidacy. The more rabid mouthpieces just intensify the effect, but even benign discussions of race will have some impact.
 
That is my opinion..........As I have said before without teleprompter the guy is a mental midget............

You completely missed the point.

Of course its "your opinion" and you are certainly entitled to it. It doesn't change that your two posts illustrated perfectly your hypocrisy and it was quite ironic.

In the first you basically said, "Why is everything about RACE with democrats". In the second, you turned around and said Obama wouldn't even be a factor if he wasn't black (RACE). Now do you see what was just completely wrong with your posts?
 
You completely missed the point.

Of course its "your opinion" and you are certainly entitled to it. It doesn't change that your two posts illustrated perfectly your hypocrisy and it was quite ironic.

In the first you basically said, "Why is everything about RACE with democrats". In the second, you turned around and said Obama wouldn't even be a factor if he wasn't black (RACE). Now do you see what was just completely wrong with your posts?


Nope, not at all....I just provide the facts.....
 
Keep in mind that I'm not a "Bradley voter", but the thinking is this:

The Bradley voter would be a voter that plans on voting for McCain, but when asked by a pollster, they will say that he is voting for Obama (not "undecided"). The reason for this has nothing to do with whether or not they have a problem with race, it has to do with if they feel guilty for voting for a white guy over the black guy - or they believe they will be viewed as racist for picking the white guy.

Even most of my liberal, radical, partisan, democrat friends will agree that the political correctness pendulum has swung way to far to the extreme (perhaps a geographical anomaly). But nobody can deny the significance of PC in this country - often times overriding basic common sense. People walk on eggshells in all matters of race. There can be 50 people, 49 white, and when someone wants to point out the black guy, they'll be afraid to say the "black guy". They'll spend 2 minutes with 20 descriptors to try and point him out - it's ridiculous.

Bottom line, if you believe that political correctness influences peoples outward actions and comments, particularly when it is whites dealing with blacks - then you have to assume that there are people that will be afraid to tell someone (they don't know) that they are selecting a white guy over a black guy. How significant that is, is unknown - but it will be proportional to the degree that race has been made a factor in the election. Certainly, it has been a significant factor in this election because of the historical aspect of Obama's candidacy. The more rabid mouthpieces just intensify the effect, but even benign discussions of race will have some impact.

I can understand your point, even if I disagree with all of it, but one more question: Rasmussen, along with other polls, use robo-calls. Since this isn't a person, shouldn't it be insulated from the Bradley Effect?
 
I can understand your point, even if I disagree with all of it, but one more question: Rasmussen, along with other polls, use robo-calls. Since this isn't a person, shouldn't it be insulated from the Bradley Effect?

Hmmmmm. If that's the case, yeah - my guess would be that that would dramatically minimize the impact of the BE. Although I suspect that it would also mean that if Gore ever runs for office again, the day after the election we'll be talking about an even more intense anomaly called the "Gore Effect". :lol:

It still can dramatically affect the exit polling, so I'd be weary of calling states too early.
 
Should Obama lose, it will definantley be the reason that is lampooned out there by the media(unless he does something incredibly stupid in the next 3+ weeks). I almost half want Obama to win, just so I don't have to hear about what a horrible racist country we are.

In actuality, I think there will be a small, but neglible effect. If McCain sweeps 49 out of 50 states(as long as Obama doesn't do something dumb), I will retract and consider that there is still widespread racism in America. But McCain would have to landslide Obama out of nowhere, for me to consider it.


So, are you saying that racism is no longer a factor in America? I would say, what part of the country do you live in? I live in one of the most ethnically diverse places in the world, here in America and the racial tension is palatable almost everywhere I go. There are no surprises, here.

Also, why would there be no claims of "racism" if John McCain were to lose? That statement seems extremely one sided. You are basically saying that the only people talking about or claim that race is a problem in America, are the those that are in the Obama camp. That's rich.

So, there is no one in the McCain camp who feels like Affirmative Action was wrong? Or, do those same people feel that something like Affirmative Action was born out of racism toward White America?

Obama has already said that if he loses, it will have nothing to do with his race. I personally have another take on the matter that I wrote about succinctly on this forum before. This election can easily be stolen by the Republicans, given the fact that more than 60% of the software written for tallying votes, was created by a Conservative Corporation! Nobody is talking about that, but if there is a "Bradley Effect" (which I brought up in another thread already) AND there is also "Coding Effect" instantiated by Conservatives, then those two things will collide on November 4th.

I think the Bradley Effect is real. I think the Coding Effect is equally real. But, I think it quite ludicrous to conclude that racism, hate and bigotry are dead in America, because America has never dealt with the issue head on. If American Citizens were to start having spontaneous Town Hall Meetings on race relations in around this country, without the Media pushing their agenda or leading the effort, then I would say that America is trying hard to address the matter.

Until then, we STILL live in a hate filled society:

YouTube - KKK -vs- Black Hebrew Israelites

The Bradley Effect? LOL! - We've got some real issues yet to deal with, here.
 
I personally have another take on the matter that I wrote about succinctly on this forum before. This election can easily be stolen by the Republicans, given the fact that more than 60% of the software written for tallying votes, was created by a Conservative Corporation! Nobody is talking about that, but if there is a "Bradley Effect" (which I brought up in another thread already) AND there is also "Coding Effect" instantiated by Conservatives, then those two things will collide on November 4th.

Just like those Republican bastards used Diebold to steal the 2006 elections?
 
Just like those Republican bastards used Diebold to steal the 2006 elections?

Why not just accept the fact that we should not be electing our President, using software (in 60%+ of the cases) developed by any one company, Conservative or Liberal?

Why not just accept that as truth? Why not agree that if software is going to be used, then strict bi-partisan protocols in technology development and chain of custody, need to be wrapped around the process to guarantee the integrity of the vote on election day? Why does one company, behind closed doors, get to write the code (in secret) that the national electorate will ultimately use on November 4th?

What part of what I’m saying makes no sense to you? I've already outlined the problem, told you exactly how it could be done conceptually, provided you with a workable/plausible scenario for deployment and cover-up that you never rebutted (not to my surprise) and you still won't agree that the current process is dumber than a door knob.

Yet, you will harp on ACORN, even when falsified registrations, have no impact on ballots cast, as the personal identification required at the voting booth must match the registration card.

Thus, if Donald Duck shows up with his identification claiming to be Popeye the Sailor Man, an official at the voting booth will have no problem opening up a big can of spinach to test the matter and see if the Don, can whip-up on 100 people at once without getting so much as a single scratch on his face! Once the Duck is proven to be a quack, he's sent home without ever having "jeopardized" the system, but only having made a clear fool of himself.

Yet, somehow, ACORN is worth the same attention as 60%+ of voting software having been coded by a Conservative company behind closed doors.

That makes a lot of sense.
 
Why not just accept the fact that we should not be electing our President, using software (in 60%+ of the cases) developed by any one company, Conservative or Liberal?

I'd prefer that we use the best software, regardless of whether the company producing it happens to be perceived as leaning left or right. Considering that nobody is forcing these districts to buy this software, I don't see the problem.

What part of what I’m saying makes no sense to you? I've already outlined the problem, told you exactly how it could be done conceptually, provided you with a workable/plausible scenario for deployment and cover-up that you never rebutted (not to my surprise) and you still won't agree that the current process is dumber than a door knob.

Because if I were to start trying to debunk every one of your crackpot theories, I wouldn't have time for anything else. Don't want to set a bad precedent.

Yet, you will harp on ACORN, even when falsified registrations, have no impact on ballots cast, as the personal identification required at the voting booth must match the registration card.

Yet, somehow, ACORN is worth the same attention as 60%+ of voting software having been coded by a Conservative company behind closed doors.

Until you show me proof that a single incident of voter fraud was committed by Diebold, then yea, that's a less serious problem than ACORN.
 
What's the difference between discussing a "Bradley Effect" and suggesting as Murtha did that racism is still alive in some states?
 
What's the difference between discussing a "Bradley Effect" and suggesting as Murtha did that racism is still alive in some states?

The people talking about the Bradley Effect generally aren't relying on those people they're calling "racists" to get re-elected. ;)
 
What's the difference between discussing a "Bradley Effect" and suggesting as Murtha did that racism is still alive in some states?

Because the "Bradley Effect" has absolutely nothing to do with racism.
 
I'd prefer that we use the best software, regardless of whether the company producing it happens to be perceived as leaning left or right. Considering that nobody is forcing these districts to buy this software, I don't see the problem.

I don't think you fully understand what you are saying, here.

There is no such thing as "the best software." Code is code and if there is any developmental security risk, then that risk needs to be removed and/or mitigated out. The issue on that level, is not the software, rather the process for developing the software.

Example: Right now, probably the primary air-to-air threat to our F-22 Raptor, is the Russian built Sukhoi Su-37. If the Raptor is ever called upon to establish air superiority in the same theatre where this variant of the Flanker is also operational, the Raptor Driver will have his hands full.

Question: Would you allow the Tactical Weapons Control & Avionics systems to be developed (coded) and engineered in the Ukraine? Of course, not. Why? For a billion reasons, but mostly because you don't want coded routines in the software that controls the targeting, tracking and firing systems to put American pilots in a position of receiving unexpected results in battle.

Similarly, would you allow, in a mission critical election for the White House, one party to have behind closed door privilege and access to the code that delivers votes to each respective candidate? Of course, not - and for the exact same principles, though the actual reasons may differ.

This is very straight forward, NYC. There is no wiggle room, here. Not on this subject. This is a matter of appropriate protocol that removes planned error from the system. That's not something that you can simply trust - rather - you have to set-up rules around the entire process that includes a bi-partisan solution set.

Anything less is just asking for trouble.


Because if I were to start trying to debunk every one of your crackpot theories, I wouldn't have time for anything else. Don't want to set a bad precedent.

That's a cute cop-out, but it does not answer the question - which is the typical response from those who can't answer direct questions.

Frankly, I think it takes a crack pot theorist, is the one who fails to understand something so incredibly easy to see as a potential problem. One would almost have to be high on something, given what I've just outlined as the potential threat to our democracy, to still fail to understand or see it, or understand it.

It is tantamount to allowing the Ukraine, to develop the software that drives the tactical weapons & avionics systems on-board our Raptors. They might very well get the job done without any problems whatsoever - that is a possibility. However, it is not very probable.


Until you show me proof that a single incident of voter fraud was committed by Diebold, then yea, that's a less serious problem than ACORN.

That's very dangerous thinking and it demonstrates a level of disengagement from reality.

Do you need proof that getting hit by a moving freight train might hurt just a little? Or, would you naturally take precautions against getting hit by one before it happened?

Given the ease with which my scenario demonstrates that votes can be tampered with specifically because the tallying process is software driven, who in their right mind would fail to realize that protection protocols removing the potential bias from such a system, are necessary before the country got "hit" with a stolen election?
 
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