UK Election Prediction thread

[Infinite Chaos]

Well, I am not Scottish or a member of the SNP, thank god! Your 3rd point is what I am talking about.. Cons and Labour made big promises if they voted to keep the Union. Yet they have massively failed to deliver or even address it properly so here we are 9 months out and there is no timetable or even agreement. Labour politics maybe the same but there is MASSIVE disagreement on Scottish Independence so for one to throw that vote towards SNP also has to mean they are questioning the situation as well. Scots aren't dumb. They know the SNP will use that 58 out of 59 power to leverage something out of it.

Oh I agree the parties didn't live up to what they said after the independence vote, there are a lot of people in Scotland who voted SNP that may not agree with their party politics but I see this as a huge kick for Labour. Miliband was the closest thing the Scots have to a traditional left-leaning politician but they have deserted him in droves. There are a lot of reasons why the SNP won so many seats - the next general election will really tell us the story of what is happening there.

If Cons can't get that magic number in which they hold the absolute power since they prefer to go it alone this time.. leaves a situation in which you could have SNP and others play the system. Say Labour gets 260... Labour could challenge with SNP's 58.. and SNP could bring in SDLP, Plaid Cymru and SF (Sinn Fein)*.. and you are looking at 328.

Latest prediction is that the Conservatives will take the majority. I'm not predicting anything yet but they are more likely to partner up with the Lib dems to defeat any SNP / Labour deal.

-- There is a situation with the Cons trying to go it alone and if they don't get that magic number.. all of Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland could be voting on the Independence issue. I know it's a long shot but.. it's still in play.

I honestly don't think those SNP voters who switched would vote for independence or forgive the SNP for dragging that issue back so soon. As for Wales - if you look at the map here

Election 2015 - BBC News

Plaid Cymru held their 3 seats but the tips of North & South Wales remain Labour strongholds while the vast rural landmass remains Conservative.

 

[Linc]

Though I'm half British, I'll never be sold on a 12-party Parliament like the UK, Canada or Israel that falls apart in 18 months along with unsavory deals.

Though I do wish Obama had a shot at the House and Senate once a week separately so he could tear them a new ass Parliament-style .

 

[Infinite Chaos]

I stayed up until 12.30 and got up at 4.30, and now I'm in work! A good effort on my part, I'd say

Wow, 4 hours sleep? Well done that man!

I'm hoping Balls is added to that list!

He deserves a kicking where his name suggests; disliked that man as education secretary and never liked him since. If he becomes leader there's no way I'd ever consider voting Labour while he's there.

 

[austrianecon]

Though I'm half British, I'll never be sold on a 12-party Parliament like the UK, Canada or Israel that falls apart in 18 months along with unsavory deals.

Though I do wish Obama had a shot at the House and Senate once a week separately so he could tear them a new ass Parliament-style .

I do like the idea of Presidents having to defend or take a tongue lashing in front of Congress.

 

[Infinite Chaos]

I do like the idea of Presidents having to defend or take a tongue lashing in front of Congress.

Definitely something the US could take from our system here - many Presidents wouldn't like it though..

 

[austrianecon]

Oh I agree the parties didn't live up to what they said after the independence vote, there are a lot of people in Scotland who voted SNP that may not agree with their party politics but I see this as a huge kick for Labour. Miliband was the closest thing the Scots have to a traditional left-leaning politician but they have deserted him in droves. There are a lot of reasons why the SNP won so many seats - the next general election will really tell us the story of what is happening there.

Don't disagree.. Just saying it gives SNP a bit more play then before.

Latest prediction is that the Conservatives will take the majority. I'm not predicting anything yet but they are more likely to partner up with the Lib dems to defeat any SNP / Labour deal.

Of course.. I always wait til there is no chance.

I honestly don't think those SNP voters who switched would vote for independence or forgive the SNP for dragging that issue back so soon. As for Wales - if you look at the map here

Election 2015 - BBC News

Plaid Cymru held their 3 seats but the tips of North & South Wales remain Labour strongholds while the vast rural landmass remains Conservative.

Oh I am not saying Wales would approve of Independence.. but rather a vote could happen. I think SNP voters realized they made a mistake after Cameron said he wants out of the EU.

 

[Linc]

I do like the idea of Presidents having to defend or take a tongue lashing in front of Congress.

I must say I'm watching with some fascination as my long-lost cousins decide their future.

It wouldn't all be Obama spanking the GOP Parliamentary-Style.

Warren and Obama would go toe-to-toe on the TPP right now.

Both parties over here are fractured more than ever--but we'll never have coalitions in my lifetime .

 

[Infinite Chaos]

Off to work now but there's a Conservative still in Scotland - joined by 1 Labour representative and 1 Liberal democrat in the Shetland Isles (they hate the SNP and want their own oil revenues for themselves)

Conservatives in the UK as of 08.08 - 301 (hooray!)

 

[Andalublue]

Hmmm, back up and a bit depressed. Now we've got 2 years of navel-gazing over EU membership, the selling off of the NHS and the entire social housing stock, 5 more years of austerity for the poor and feather-bedding for the rich. Ugh!

 

[Andalublue]

Well, right at the last minute in the voting booth I went back to Conservative

Why?

I'm struggling to understand how the polls could have got it all so wrong, so consistently over such a long period of time. Did so many people, like you, turn up at the polling station and have a Tory epiphany? Or were they lying to pollsters all along?

 

[PeteEU]

Hmmm, back up and a bit depressed. Now we've got 2 years of navel-gazing over EU membership, the selling off of the NHS and the entire social housing stock, 5 more years of austerity for the poor and feather-bedding for the rich. Ugh!

Big question is when the markets will get over the euphoria on having a conservative majority and look at reality. It almost is certain now that several major banks will move out of London. The majority is going to be so small that Cameron will be 100% beholden to his radical nationalists in his party and there will be a referendum on the EU and the UK will vote yes to leave.

 

[PeteEU]

Migrants in the UK: An Overview | The Migration Observatory

Number one - Share of foreign citizens 2013

Number 1 - Poland 13%
Number 2 - India 7.1%
Number 3 - Ireland 6.5%
Number 4 - Pakistan 3.8%

And I'm one of the ones who likes the Poles, I think 99% of them have a brilliant work ethic.

Census data from 2011 disagrees with you. Indians are nr 1... so unless the Poles have out immigrated Indians considerably the 2 years between the ONS data and the above "study", then I dont believe it. But regardless, Poles have been part of UK society for a very very long time and can hardly be called "new" immigration wise. They were the nr. 2 group in the 1951 census for example, just behind the Irish.

 

[Ben K.]

I can only imagine people are hesitant to tell pollsters they'll vote conservative.

And CJ may have been correct about the baby...

 

[alexa]

Off to work now but there's a Conservative still in Scotland - joined by 1 Labour representative and 1 Liberal democrat in the Shetland Isles (they hate the SNP and want their own oil revenueor themselvess f)

Conservatives in the UK as of 08.08 - 301 (hooray!)

In reality Carmichael won by less than 1000 votes over the SNP. Him getting 41% of the vote and them 38%

 

[alexa]

Hmmm, back up and a bit depressed. Now we've got 2 years of navel-gazing over EU membership, the selling off of the NHS and the entire social housing stock, 5 more years of austerity for the poor and feather-bedding for the rich. Ugh!

I am feeling shocked. Obviously this is a different situation to what people were considering throughout the election campaign. I have to say my first thought was that England responded to the Conservatives propaganda about the terrible SNP as well as the poor way Labour dealt with it. In Scotland the response to that was the opposite.

Concerning Independence which IC mentioned

No it is not a vote for Independence, never was and the SNP were very clear about that. The only thing they said before which could result in that would be an English vote to leave the EU with a Scottish vote to stay or some yet to come change.

 

[Higgins86]

snp 1.5 million votes and they get 55 seats.

Ukip 3 million votes 1 seat.

 

[Higgins86]

Well, at 2:46 BST I'm signing out. Off to bed. It's been a poor show frankly, DP Europe. Where the hell were you all? IC, Gunner, Higgins, Alexa, Viv, Anglo, Manc, NoC and the rest of you. I was looking forward to some serious banter, but answer came there none.

I guess I'll have to look to other boards to take the lead.

In sadness more than anger......

drank too much and fell asleep, sorry lol.

 

[gunner]

Why?

I'm struggling to understand how the polls could have got it all so wrong, so consistently over such a long period of time. Did so many people, like you, turn up at the polling station and have a Tory epiphany? Or were they lying to pollsters all along?

I heard one commentator say in 92 over 20% of voters did not decide, until election day. May be this was repeated?

 

[Anglo-scot]

I am feeling shocked. Obviously this is a different situation to what people were considering throughout the election campaign. I have to say my first thought was that England responded to the Conservatives propaganda about the terrible SNP as well as the poor way Labour dealt with it. In Scotland the response to that was the opposite.

Concerning Independence which IC mentioned

No it is not a vote for Independence, never was and the SNP were very clear about that. The only thing they said before which could result in that would be an English vote to leave the EU with a Scottish vote to stay or some yet to come change.

I think there was a last minute move from English floaters to the Tories because of scares about SNP influence, egged on by the Daily Mail and the Sun, which Nigel Farage was particularly bitter about, in his "blame-everyone-for-my-stupidity" manner. Glad he didn't get in.

 

[alexa]

snp 1.5 million votes and they get 55 seats.
Ukip 3 million votes 1 seat.

Obviously that is because the SNP's votes were all in one area, Scotland. The SNP however is for proportional representation and it is 56 seats..

 

[gunner]

In reality Carmichael won by less than 1000 votes over the SNP. Him getting 41% of the vote and them 38%

Scotland has still become a one party state I don't think Putin enjoys such a large majority!

 

[Higgins86]

Obviously that is because the SNP's votes were all in one area, Scotland. The SNP however is for proportional representation and it is 56 seats..

doesnt change the fact that the first past the post system needs to be reformed.

 

[Higgins86]

I am feeling shocked. Obviously this is a different situation to what people were considering throughout the election campaign. I have to say my first thought was that England responded to the Conservatives propaganda about the terrible SNP as well as the poor way Labour dealt with it. In Scotland the response to that was the opposite.

Concerning Independence which IC mentioned

No it is not a vote for Independence, never was and the SNP were very clear about that. The only thing they said before which could result in that would be an English vote to leave the EU with a Scottish vote to stay or some yet to come change.

Wasn't really propaganda as everyone heard the rhetoric during the referendum. As I said earlier Labour got crushed by nationalism and fear both sides of the border.

 

[Anglo-scot]

Well, at 2:46 BST I'm signing out. Off to bed. It's been a poor show frankly, DP Europe. Where the hell were you all? IC, Gunner, Higgins, Alexa, Viv, Anglo, Manc, NoC and the rest of you. I was looking forward to some serious banter, but answer came there none.

I guess I'll have to look to other boards to take the lead.

In sadness more than anger......

Sorry about this. I was watching it on TV and forgot about this thread in the process. Good news for me. I voted Labour because my local Labour MP is against Trident, and he was re-elected. At least when it gets passed, I can say I voted for someone who voted against it. Also good for EU-sceptics like me as Cameron seems sincere on his commitment to a referendum in 2017, giving us the best shot at educating the electorate on the EU juggernaut.

 

[donsutherland1]

From Reuters:

Labour's Miliband is widely expected to resign in the wake of his defeat. A North London Socialist and self-described "geek" who never quite connected with working-class voters, he ran a campaign that was widely seen as better than expected, but was always far behind Cameron in polls that asked voters who they saw as a more credible leader.

PM Cameron sweeps to unexpected triumph in British election | Reuters

Such information suggests that Prime Minister Cameron's electoral success may have been, in part, a combination of economic growth and leadership perceptions that effectively made a powerful case for continuity in the UK's leadership. It will be interesting to see if any polling results are available explaining why people voted as they did. The SNP's success in Scotland is a local phenomenon and the UKIP's defeat nationwide repudiates that party's almost fatalistic worldview. While, IMO, the Prime Minister hasn't necessarily distinguished himself as a great leader (we'll see what happens over the next five years), there could have been worse outcomes than what took place. He did enough to persuade voters his party deserved to continue to govern while his opponents failed to make the case for leadership change.