Ominous signals

[Shayah]

UN force under pressure four years after Lebanon war
By Rana Moussaoui (AFP) – 7 hours ago

BEIRUT — Four years after a devastating war between Israel and Hezbollah, the UN forces keeping them apart in southern Lebanon are under mounting strain amid fears of a fresh conflict and hostility from villagers.

For decades UNIFIL has maintained good relations with the people of southern Lebanon, offering them education and health services in addition to their peacekeeping duties. But in a rare string of events this month, villagers attacked the multinational force after taking to the streets to protest a 36-hour maximum deployment exercise by UNIFIL.

In the most notable confrontation, residents of the southern town of Tulin disarmed a French patrol and attacked them with sticks, rocks and eggs before the Lebanese army intervened. Michael Williams, the UN special coordinator for Lebanon, described some of the protests as "clearly organised," singling out one encounter he said involved about 100 villagers. The UN Security Council on Friday unanimously approved a statement of support for its peacekeeping mission in Lebanon and called on all parties in the country to allow the forces to move freely.

AFP

In a related story....

IDF reveals intel on huge Hezbollah arms stockpile in southern Lebanon
Published 00:54 08.07.10
By Anshel Pfeffer

Nearly four years after the Second Lebanon War, Israel published maps yesterday showing arms caches in some 160 southern Lebanon villages. In a rare move declassifying confidential intelligence information, the Israel Defense Forces told reporters that Hezbollah has some 40,000 short-, medium- and long-range missiles, and a force of 20,000 guerrilla fighters based throughout southern Lebanon.

Many of the arms caches are stored in private homes, which in the event of war could turn into IDF military targets. In Beirut, one Hezbollah official told reporters he would not comment on the information provided by the IDF before seeing it himself.

Hezbollah's operation has been limited considerably by the presence of UNIFIL troops deployed in southern Lebanon. In recent days, however, residents of southern Shi'ite villages sympathetic to Hezbollah have blocked the UN monitors from entering their communities. Virtually every Shi'ite village in southern Lebanon functions as a kind of military post, including control centers, underground supply tunnels and storage of arms caches. Most villages host cells of between 30 and 200 Hezbollah fighters trained in field operations and rocket launching. IDF planners believe that in the event of war, Hezbollah will fire between 600 and 800 rockets a day at Israel.

Yesterday the military revealed intelligence on one southern Lebanon village, Khiam, 20 kilometers from the northern Israeli city of Kiryat Shmona. The village of 23,000 is said to include at least 10 weapons storage sites - some of them just dozens of meters from schools or hospitals - and upon the outbreak of war would likely provide a haven for at least 90 Hezbollah fighters. Over the last few months, farmers working land close to the border have reported more sightings of Hezbollah fighters perched at reconnaissance towers overlooking Israel.

Many of them, the farmers said, were accompanied by individuals speaking Iran's dominant language, Farsi. Hezbollah is believed to be operating in conjunction with hundreds of Iranian advisers, led by Hossein Mahdavi - the head of the Lebanon Corps of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard - stationed in Beirut.

IAF drone harvesting intel/video data over Khaim, Lebanon

Ha'aretz

Both articles strongly suggest that Hezbollah is rearming in southern Lebanon with the knowledge and complicity of southern Lebanese civilians.

 

[Mira]

Shayah, Hizbollah isn't a regular army that gets called and deployed here or there in the case of war. Hizbollah members ARE from South Lebanon and live among their family members. I was there for 2 weeks just a month ago travelling all over south Lebanon. Beside a few Lebanese army checkpoints and U.N. patrols you do not see a single other military presence.

Since 2006, Hizbollah has not fired a single rocket into Israel, has not made any attemts of incursions. Every speech of Hassan Nasrallah's has been about defense and not offense.

I walked up and down the border at "Bawabet Fatmeh" with Lebanese civilians on one side and Israeli military on the other. Each and every time it was the Israeli military who were fooling around and turning their weapons toward us, the civilians did not throw one single rock as they did for years after 2000. I only saw one guy stick a "F you" finger at the soldiers and he turned out to be from Tripoli.

The general mood in South Lebanon was "leave us alone, we leave you alone"

Just my impression.....

 

[Apocalypse]

Shayah, Hizbollah isn't a regular army that gets called and deployed here or there in the case of war. Hizbollah members ARE from South Lebanon and live among their family members. I was there for 2 weeks just a month ago travelling all over south Lebanon. Beside a few Lebanese army checkpoints and U.N. patrols you do not see a single other military presence.

Since 2006, Hizbollah has not fired a single rocket into Israel, has not made any attemts of incursions. Every speech of Hassan Nasrallah's has been about defense and not offense.

I walked up and down the border at "Bawabet Fatmeh" with Lebanese civilians on one side and Israeli military on the other. Each and every time it was the Israeli military who were fooling around and turning their weapons toward us, the civilians did not throw one single rock as they did for years after 2000. I only saw one guy stick a "F you" finger at the soldiers and he turned out to be from Tripoli.

The general mood in South Lebanon was "leave us alone, we leave you alone"

Just my impression.....

All of those "defensive" statements from Hizballah are meant towards the Lebanese population, they seek further support and hence are trying to maintain a defensive position, but just like the 2006 war has started with Hezbollah aggression so will any future war.

And yes Hizballah is covering big parts of Southern Lebanon, and the intel gathered by the IDF through the years point at an excessive rearming by Hizballah and the continued use of the Lebanese civilians of Southern Lebanon as political tools, storing arms next to hospitals and schools and positioning themselves amongst the civilian population.

 

[Shayah]

I walked up and down the border at "Bawabet Fatmeh" with Lebanese civilians on one side and Israeli military on the other. Each and every time it was the Israeli military who were fooling around and turning their weapons toward us, the civilians did not throw one single rock as they did for years after 2000. I only saw one guy stick a "F you" finger at the soldiers and he turned out to be from Tripoli. The general mood in South Lebanon was "leave us alone, we leave you alone" Just my impression.....

My sister visited the border area last week. Her impressions are probably a bit different than yours.

 

[Mira]

Oh well .... we even hear and see differently.

 

[Shayah]

Oh well .... we even hear and see differently.

Possibly, since she will probably appraise the situation from a military point of view.

 

[Mira]

Possibly, since she will probably appraise the situation from a military point of view.

yeah, that probably explains why

 

[justabubba]

All of those "defensive" statements from Hizballah are meant towards the Lebanese population, they seek further support and hence are trying to maintain a defensive position, but just like the 2006 war has started with Hezbollah aggression so will any future war.

And yes Hizballah is covering big parts of Southern Lebanon, and the intel gathered by the IDF through the years point at an excessive rearming by Hizballah and the continued use of the Lebanese civilians of Southern Lebanon as political tools, storing arms next to hospitals and schools and positioning themselves amongst the civilian population.

only the israeli soldiers are initiating provocation across the border and you are expressing concern that the lebanese are becoming better equipped to defend themselves
i believe the ominous inference you should take from this is that it may become a template for the other nations in the region to follow
if israel insists on flexing its military might it should not be surprised that its opponents are preparing to defend themselves from the IDF 'pre-emptive' attacks launched against them

 

[Apocalypse]

only the israeli soldiers are initiating provocation across the border and you are expressing concern that the lebanese are becoming better equipped to defend themselves
i believe the ominous inference you should take from this is that it may become a template for the other nations in the region to follow
if israel insists on flexing its military might it should not be surprised that its opponents are preparing to defend themselves from the IDF 'pre-emptive' attacks launched against them

That is of course false, the Israeli soldiers are not the ones committing the provocations and the 2nd Lebanon war was started with a Hezbollah surprise attack on the IDF.
You are as usual unsuccessfully trying to manipulate reality and history for the sake of propaganda, due to the fact that the truth acts against you.
Your support for the arming of the terrorist organization of Hezbollah is merely done due to your agreement with their methods, nothing more and nothing less.

Besides that, stating that Hebzollah arms itself for the sake of defending itself from Israeli "preemptive" strikes is an oxymoron, due to the fact that a preemptive attack comes to prevent a known incoming attack from the other side.

 

[Shayah]

only the israeli soldiers are initiating provocation across the border and you are expressing concern that the lebanese are becoming better equipped to defend themselves
i believe the ominous inference you should take from this is that it may become a template for the other nations in the region to follow if israel insists on flexing its military might it should not be surprised that its opponents are preparing to defend themselves from the IDF 'pre-emptive' attacks launched against them

Lol. Nice amateur attempt at revisionism. The real down low...

The conflict began when Hezbollah militants fired rockets at Israeli border towns as a diversion for an anti-tank missile attack on two armored Humvees patrolling the Israeli side of the border fence.[26] The ambush left three soldiers dead. Two additional soldiers, believed to have been killed outright or mortally wounded, were snatched by Hezbollah to Lebanon.[27][28][26] Five more were killed in a failed rescue attempt.

2006 Lebanon War - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[Mira]

Report: Hezbollah prepares retaliation for potential Nasrallah assassination - Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News

aparently it is Israel who has been attempting to assassinate Nasrallah.

We all know that assassinating Nasrallah will not weaken Hizbollah at all, on the contrary, it will only strengthen it.

So who is trying to ignite the fire ?

 

[Apocalypse]

Report: Hezbollah prepares retaliation for potential Nasrallah assassination - Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News

aparently it is Israel who has been attempting to assassinate Nasrallah.

We all know that assassinating Nasrallah will not weaken Hizbollah at all, on the contrary, it will only strengthen it.

So who is trying to ignite the fire ?

If Israel wanted Nasrallah dead he would already be dead, Israel actually agrees with you that assassinating Nasrallah will be a bad move and its officials have stated so before.
The claim that Israel has plotted to assassinate Nasrallah is the common attempt to mislead the public through accusations, it is very common amongst radical Islamic leaders such as Nasrallah, Heniyah, Bin-Laden and even Ahmedinejad. (Like when Iran has accused Israel and the US for killing the Iranian professor that died in a blast a few months ago)

They're basically trying to fuel the flames so they will have the public's support once they take another move of aggression against Israel.

 

[Apocalypse]

Here, even found a part in the Haaretz article that says what I've tried to explain:

Experts have suggested, however, that the report may be part of Hezbollah's propaganda war and not based on actual facts.

 

[Mira]

If Israel wanted Nasrallah dead he would already be dead, Israel actually agrees with you that assassinating Nasrallah will be a bad move and its officials have stated so before.
The claim that Israel has plotted to assassinate Nasrallah is the common attempt to mislead the public through accusations, it is very common amongst radical Islamic leaders such as Nasrallah, Heniyah, Bin-Laden and even Ahmedinejad. (Like when Iran has accused Israel and the US for killing the Iranian professor that died in a blast a few months ago)

They're basically trying to fuel the flames so they will have the public's support once they take another move of aggression against Israel.

If Israel had never assassinated political leaders and made the situation even worse than it already was, I would have believed you.

 

[Apocalypse]

If Israel had never assassinated political leaders and made the situation even worse than it already was, I would have believed you.

Israel did assassinate arch-terrorists in the past, but that cannot possibly imply that it will assassinate every arch-terrorist out there.
I do not expect you to believe me, I am merely stating that when you take the terrorists' words for granted you are playing into their attempt to fuel the flames and promote the support for their next war.
Do notice that you are fully relying here with your words on unidentified sources, and that explains your defensive position towards the terrorist organization of Hezbollah.

 

[Mira]

Israel did assassinate arch-terrorists in the past, but that cannot possibly imply that it will assassinate every arch-terrorist out there.
I do not expect you to believe me, I am merely stating that when you take the terrorists' words for granted you are playing into their attempt to fuel the flames and promote the support for their next war.

The problem is that while I do not totally trust either side, you blindly trust absolutely anything that your army and your givernment feeds you.

 

[justabubba]

Lol. Nice amateur attempt at revisionism. The real down low...


2006 Lebanon War - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

let us seek out the truth of the matter:

Preparations for Israel's war in Lebanon last summer were drawn up at least four months before two Israeli soldiers were kidnapped by Hizbullah in July, Ehud Olmert, the prime minister, has admitted.
His submission to a commission of inquiry, leaked yesterday, contradicted the impression at the time that Israel was provoked into a battle for which it was ill-prepared. Mr Olmert told the Winograd commission, a panel of judges charged with investigating Israel's perceived defeat in the 34-day war, that he first discussed the possibility of war in January and asked to see military plans in March. ...

[emphasis added by bubba]
Israel planned for Lebanon war months in advance, PM says | World news | The Guardian

 

[Shayah]

let us seek out the truth of the matter

Israel always has contingency plans to engage Hezbollah and Hamas. Any dummy should realize that.

Lol. Even the Hezbollah leadership admitted after the war that it had badly misjudged the Israeli response to its criminality.

On 27 August 2006, Nasrallah stated, "Had we known that the capture of the soldiers would have led to [the war], we would definitely not have done it."

2006 Lebanon War - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[Mira]

Israel always has contingency plans to engage Hezbollah and Hamas. Any dummy should realize that.

Lol. Even the Hezbollah leadership admitted after the war that it had badly misjudged the Israeli response to its criminality.


2006 Lebanon War - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

And Israel had misjudged the power of Hizbollah.

By the way Apocalypse, assassinating Nasrallah is not as easy a task as you believe it to be. It's not enough to localise and strike. In order for it to be politically effective, it has to be done in such a way that Israel will be suspected of having carried it out but never proved. Rings a bell with a few successful assassinations ?

 

[Shayah]

By the way Apocalypse, assassinating Nasrallah is not as easy a task as you believe it to be. It's not enough to localise and strike. In order for it to be politically effective, it has to be done in such a way that Israel will be suspected of having carried it out but never proved. Rings a bell with a few successful assassinations?

Imad Mughaniya for one. Lebanon blamed Israel, but most analysts believe Tehran was the culprit.

 

[Mira]

Imad Mughaniya for one. Lebanon blamed Israel, but most analysts believe Tehran was the culprit.

exactly, and nobody really knows and we will probably never find out.

 

[Apocalypse]

The problem is that while I do not totally trust either side, you blindly trust absolutely anything that your army and your givernment feeds you.

I trust that which is based, and yes you do seem to blindly trust the terrorists since you've just referred to their accusation against Israel of "plotting to assassinate Nasrallah" as if there is any truth to it.

 

[Apocalypse]

By the way Apocalypse, assassinating Nasrallah is not as easy a task as you believe it to be. It's not enough to localise and strike. In order for it to be politically effective, it has to be done in such a way that Israel will be suspected of having carried it out but never proved. Rings a bell with a few successful assassinations ?

Or it could just be done through a war that will be started by Hizballah, like the US assassinates those al-Qaeda and Taliban leaders.

 

[Gardener]

a bit different.

Otherwise known as "More honest and accurate".

 

[Gardener]

The problem is that while I do not totally trust either side, .

Yet you are quite relentless about promoting the interests of one of them.