Do Americans (in general) Suffer from Normalcy Bias?

[EdwinWillers]

Normalcy Bias (from Wikipedia):

The normalcy bias, or normality bias, refers to a mental state people enter when facing a disaster. It causes people to underestimate both the possibility of a disaster occurring and its possible effects. This often results in situations where people fail to adequately prepare for a disaster, and on a larger scale, the failure of governments to include the populace in its disaster preparations. The assumption that is made in the case of the normalcy bias is that since a disaster never has occurred then it never will occur. It also results in the inability of people to cope with a disaster once it occurs. People with a normalcy bias have difficulties reacting to something they have not experienced before. People also tend to interpret warnings in the most optimistic way possible, seizing on any ambiguities to infer a less serious situation.

We could apply the definition to a lot of things, but given the fiscal issues we're facing seem to be at the forefront of people's minds, it seems appropriate to ask the question in that context.The premise here of course is that we ARE facing a pending fiscal disaster. I'm not talking about whether or not we raise the debt ceiling - though sadly, I think we must. I'm talking about the fiscal decisions we've made that have gotten us into this mess in the first place.

Some believe - and I've actually read comments here to this effect - that "debt is good," that the United States has "unlimited borrowing power" and that we have unlimited resources to fund our debt, that we can print all the money we need - that as a nation, we can never experience fiscal, economic collapse. Personally, I think such attitudes are indicative of normalcy bias. Just because we've never faced the sort of fiscal demise we do now (the great depression notwithstanding) does not mean America can never fall prey to our own excesses, to our own fiscal irresponsibility. And consequently, we see two totally diverse factions on this debate - as much ideological as anything, but many on BOTH sides, as evidenced by the general apathy for, and lethargy to act that I see among the general populace. Despite the issue, people are going about their normal daily affairs as if all this will eventually work itself out.

Your thoughts...

Do Americans, in general, suffer from normalcy bias when it comes to this nation's pending fiscal dangers?

 

[lizzie]

[Your thoughts...

Do Americans, in general, suffer from normalcy bias when it comes to this nation's pending fiscal dangers?

Either that, or they prefer to keep their heads in the sand, and avoid thinking about what we are doing, or the long-term effects of folly.

 

[Sherman123]

Normalcy Bias (from Wikipedia): We could apply the definition to a lot of things, but given the fiscal issues we're facing seem to be at the forefront of people's minds, it seems appropriate to ask the question in that context.The premise here of course is that we ARE facing a pending fiscal disaster. I'm not talking about whether or not we raise the debt ceiling - though sadly, I think we must. I'm talking about the fiscal decisions we've made that have gotten us into this mess in the first place.

Some believe - and I've actually read comments here to this effect - that "debt is good," that the United States has "unlimited borrowing power" and that we have unlimited resources to fund our debt, that we can print all the money we need - that as a nation, we can never experience fiscal, economic collapse. Personally, I think such attitudes are indicative of normalcy bias. Just because we've never faced the sort of fiscal demise we do now (the great depression notwithstanding) does not mean America can never fall prey to our own excesses, to our own fiscal irresponsibility. And consequently, we see two totally diverse factions on this debate - as much ideological as anything, but many on BOTH sides, as evidenced by the general apathy for, and lethargy to act that I see among the general populace. Despite the issue, people are going about their normal daily affairs as if all this will eventually work itself out.

Your thoughts...

Do Americans, in general, suffer from normalcy bias when it comes to this nation's pending fiscal dangers?

Don't agree with everything you've said but bringing up the issue of normalcy bias is important to generating meaningful conversation and not just regarding our fiscal house.

 

[rocket88]

Normalcy Bias (from Wikipedia): We could apply the definition to a lot of things, but given the fiscal issues we're facing seem to be at the forefront of people's minds, it seems appropriate to ask the question in that context.The premise here of course is that we ARE facing a pending fiscal disaster. I'm not talking about whether or not we raise the debt ceiling - though sadly, I think we must. I'm talking about the fiscal decisions we've made that have gotten us into this mess in the first place.

Some believe - and I've actually read comments here to this effect - that "debt is good," that the United States has "unlimited borrowing power" and that we have unlimited resources to fund our debt, that we can print all the money we need - that as a nation, we can never experience fiscal, economic collapse. Personally, I think such attitudes are indicative of normalcy bias. Just because we've never faced the sort of fiscal demise we do now (the great depression notwithstanding) does not mean America can never fall prey to our own excesses, to our own fiscal irresponsibility. And consequently, we see two totally diverse factions on this debate - as much ideological as anything, but many on BOTH sides, as evidenced by the general apathy for, and lethargy to act that I see among the general populace. Despite the issue, people are going about their normal daily affairs as if all this will eventually work itself out.

Your thoughts...

Do Americans, in general, suffer from normalcy bias when it comes to this nation's pending fiscal dangers?

I think in general Americans suffer from normalcy bias about everything. It takes a tragedy to get Congress moving.

 

[longview]

I think we do become desensitized from too many sources screaming of eminent doom.
On the Gulf Coast, every Hurricane season, they announce how many named storms
and major hurricanes they expect.
The first storms in the Atlantic show up in June, and they ramp up the volume to sell
news time,(most Texas storms are in Sept.).
By the time Sept rolls around, the news stations have been implying "We are all going to DIE!!!!!",
for 2 months.
When we actually get a storm, not everyone takes it seriously.
I am sure this applies to many areas of modern life, and does become the new normal.

 

[EdwinWillers]

I think in general Americans suffer from normalcy bias about everything. It takes a tragedy to get Congress moving.

I think it's a natural human trait we do that. Not sure the psychology behind it, but like teenagers never think they'll die, we seem to think bad things will never happen to us either. I think we have a tendency to disassociate from our behaviors all but the positive consequences - even if such behaviors are demonstrably destructive. E.g. things like smoking. We know smoking can lead to cancer; but never think we'll contract it. Or as in overeating, we don't think it'll lead to obesity. And should we become obese because of our overeating, we downplay the consequences of that.

The list is endless. We don't like to contemplate bad things or difficult times - worse, we lead ourselves into believing they can't ever happen.

 

[EdwinWillers]

I think in general Americans suffer from normalcy bias about everything. It takes a tragedy to get Congress moving.

Ahyup. And I think that applies to most things too - that we refuse to take action until the tragedy is upon us. And even then, we have a difficult time "understanding" why this is happening to us.

 

[EdwinWillers]

Don't agree with everything you've said but bringing up the issue of normalcy bias is important to generating meaningful conversation and not just regarding our fiscal house.

I agree. Regardless our biases or ideologies, I think it's something from which we all suffer - and recognizing it is the first step to doing something about it - whatever the "it" may be.

 

[sangha]

In order to have normalcy bias, one has to be facing a disaster. I don't believe we are facing the disaster that the drama queens on the right have been constantly predicting for as long as I have been alive (and probably longer)

 

[EdwinWillers]

In order to have normalcy bias, one has to be facing a disaster. I don't believe we are facing the disaster that the drama queens on the right have been constantly predicting for as long as I have been alive (and probably longer)

...which is either true or - you're in the throes of your own normalcy bias.

 

[MaggieD]

Normalcy Bias (from Wikipedia): We could apply the definition to a lot of things, but given the fiscal issues we're facing seem to be at the forefront of people's minds, it seems appropriate to ask the question in that context.The premise here of course is that we ARE facing a pending fiscal disaster. I'm not talking about whether or not we raise the debt ceiling - though sadly, I think we must. I'm talking about the fiscal decisions we've made that have gotten us into this mess in the first place.

Some believe - and I've actually read comments here to this effect - that "debt is good," that the United States has "unlimited borrowing power" and that we have unlimited resources to fund our debt, that we can print all the money we need - that as a nation, we can never experience fiscal, economic collapse. Personally, I think such attitudes are indicative of normalcy bias. Just because we've never faced the sort of fiscal demise we do now (the great depression notwithstanding) does not mean America can never fall prey to our own excesses, to our own fiscal irresponsibility. And consequently, we see two totally diverse factions on this debate - as much ideological as anything, but many on BOTH sides, as evidenced by the general apathy for, and lethargy to act that I see among the general populace. Despite the issue, people are going about their normal daily affairs as if all this will eventually work itself out.

Your thoughts...

Do Americans, in general, suffer from normalcy bias when it comes to this nation's pending fiscal dangers?

Maybe we do. Or maybe we're ostriches hiding our heads in the sand. We have been led to believe that nothing can bring down our country's economy from which we cannot recover. Well, frankly, that's probably true. As painful a process as we'd necessarily endure, we'd come out of it okay-fine. Perhaps having learned some valuable lessons.

When a country has the power to print money, to control interest rates, to manipulate the stock market, to redistribute wealth? Well, I'd say it has all the power it needs to pull us out of any economic calamity. How painful the process? We haven't seen nothin' yet.

 

[sangha]

...which is either true or - you're in the throes of your own normalcy bias.

or you're in the throes of paranoia

Actually, there is no doubt that the drama queens on the right are paranoid.

 

[polgara]

...which is either true or - you're in the throes of your own normalcy bias.

On TV, they have had a running series on what "preppers" are doing to prepare for an unknown future. Would this fall outside the normalcy bias, since they are apparently getting ready for something, even though they may not know what it is?

The biblical story of Egypt's pharoah preparing for seven years of famine, which was predicted would follow the seven years of plenty which they were currently enjoying, seems like a lesson for future generations, since history does repeat.

Greetings, EdwinWillers. :2wave:

 

[EdwinWillers]

Maybe we do. Or maybe we're ostriches hiding our heads in the sand. We have been led to believe that nothing can bring down our country's economy from which we cannot recover. Well, frankly, that's probably true. As painful a process as we'd necessarily endure, we'd come out of it okay-fine. Perhaps having learned some valuable lessons.

Maybe sticking our heads in the sand is but a sign of the normalcy bias.

I agree though - we've been conditioned to believe our economy is rock solid and permanent. I think history would beg to differ. And any process, were we able to recover, will undoubtedly be quite painful. And who knows how we'll look after it's all over.

When a country has the power to print money, to control interest rates, to manipulate the stock market, to redistribute wealth? Well, I'd say it has all the power it needs to pull us out of any economic calamity. How painful the process? We haven't seen nothin' yet.

I agree - I fully believe we can get ourselves out of this mess - HOWEVER (and there's always a 'however' in life) it'll take some truly serious dedication on both sides of the aisle to accomplish it - something that doesn't usually happen until after the damage has been done.

 

[EdwinWillers]

On TV, they have had a running series on what "preppers" are doing to prepare for an unknown future. Would this fall outside the normalcy bias, since they are apparently getting ready for something, even though they may not know what it is?

The biblical story of Egypt's pharoah preparing for seven years of famine, which was predicted would follow the seven years of plenty which they were currently enjoying, seems like a lesson for future generations, since history does repeat.

Greetings, EdwinWillers. :2wave:

Yeah, I've seen the prepper shows - some are quite interesting, some pretty whacky. What cracks me up about those willing to have cameras come in and document all their preparations is that in so doing they're pretty much violating the cardinal principle of preparation -- letting it be known who they are, where they live, and what they're doing.

Yes, Joseph's vision/wisdom in getting Pharoah to make the necessary preparations is a good lesson. HOWEVER - there's one lesson that we should also take from that story - when the famine was over, the State owned all the wealth of the nation. That wasn't so good a thing for the Egyptian people.

 

[lizzie]

I agree - I fully believe we can get ourselves out of this mess - HOWEVER (and there's always a 'however' in life) it'll take some truly serious dedication on both sides of the aisle to accomplish it - something that doesn't usually happen until after the damage has been done.

Yeah, I'm basically just waiting for the house of cards to fall, as it will at some point in the future. I may not live to see it, but we can't continue on our current path without paying heavy consequences in the down the road, and a very very few, whether politicians, or general populace, have the will.

 

[EdwinWillers]

Yeah, I'm basically just waiting for the house of cards to fall, as it will at some point in the future. I may not live to see it, but we can't continue on our current path without paying heavy consequences in the down the road, and a very very few, whether politicians, or general populace, have the will.

And "house of cards" it definitely is.

I've posted this elsewhere - taken from data from the CBO and US Treaury:


We simply cannot sustain such exponential increases in our spending. Something's gotta give...

 

[polgara]

Yeah, I've seen the prepper shows - some are quite interesting, some pretty whacky. What cracks me up about those willing to have cameras come in and document all their preparations is that in so doing they're pretty much violating the cardinal principle of preparation -- letting it be known who they are, where they live, and what they're doing.

Yes, Joseph's vision/wisdom in getting Pharoah to make the necessary preparations is a good lesson. HOWEVER - there's one lesson that we should also take from that story - when the famine was over, the State owned all the wealth of the nation. That wasn't so good a thing for the Egyptian people.

They didn't teach us that part in Sunday school, but we probably wouldn't have known what they were talking about, anyway. Back then, our parents were the only "State" we recognized as authority.

Greetings, EdwinWillers. :2wave:

 

[EdwinWillers]

They didn't teach us that part in Sunday school, but we probably wouldn't have known what they were talking about, anyway. Back then, our parents were the only "State" we recognized as authority.

Greetings, EdwinWillers. :2wave:

Yeah - it's in Genesis 47. When the people ran out of money, they sold all their livestock to Pharoah, and then when that was gone, they all sold their land to him so that in the end Pharoah owned all the land and all the livestock.

 

[humbolt]

or you're in the throes of paranoia

Actually, there is no doubt that the drama queens on the right are paranoid.

Drama queens? I live with complete satisfaction that I will never, ever be required to pay my share of the national debt. I do have children, though, and it's highly likely that they will not only have to pay their share, but mine as well. That's not paranoia. It's simply reality heavily supported by even the government's own projections.

 

[sangha]

Drama queens? I live with complete satisfaction that I will never, ever be required to pay my share of the national debt. I do have children, though, and it's highly likely that they will not only have to pay their share, but mine as well. That's not paranoia. It's simply reality heavily supported by even the government's own projections.

I believe it is paranoia. There will be no payment of the debt. Instead, we will pay the interest and borrow more as our wealth increases.

It's the same thing businesses have done throughout the history of capitalism, and even longer.

Because it works.

 

[humbolt]

I believe it is paranoia. There will be no payment of the debt. Instead, we will pay the interest and borrow more as our wealth increases.

It's the same thing businesses have done throughout the history of capitalism, and even longer.

Because it works.

A credit downgrade might change your mind, as will an increase in interest - and it's only a matter of time before interest rates increase significantly. It only works until it doesn't. I do agree this is not a huge crisis at present in spite of the rhetoric, but it could easily become one if we don't get our spending and fiscal house in order soon. Right now there are no signs that we will.

 

[sangha]

A credit downgrade might change your mind, as will an increase in interest - and it's only a matter of time before interest rates increase significantly. It only works until it doesn't. I do agree this is not a huge crisis at present in spite of the rhetoric, but it could easily become one if we don't get our spending and fiscal house in order soon. Right now there are no signs that we will.

A credit downgrade will not result from out debt; it will result from the right wings unwillingness to pay the debts they voted to accumulate.

They want to burn down the house so they can say "See? We told you that you shouldn't have built your house there!"

 

[clownboy]

A credit downgrade will not result from out debt; it will result from the right wings unwillingness to pay the debts they voted to accumulate.

They want to burn down the house so they can say "See? We told you that you shouldn't have built your house there!"

Nope, not making our debt payments is one way, taking on too much debt is another.

 

[sangha]

Nope, not making our debt payments is one way, taking on too much debt is another.

We haven't taken on too much debt, nor will we