It is very hard to see a path to victory for Mitt Romney after how these conventions have been going.
At this point in the election, there are practically no undecideds left at all. We have had a series of huge events like Obama's executive order on immigration or the shocking Republican "legitimate rape" craziness or the study that showed that Romney's tax plan raises taxes on the middle class to lower them on the rich or the selection of Ryan as his running mate. Each one of those, many people on both sides predicted would totally change the election. After Obama's executive order, for example, there were people predicting a 15% bump for Romney and there were people predicting a 15% bump for Obama. But in each of those cases, the needle barely moved. The reality is that most people who still don't know which of the candidates they prefer aren't going to vote and very few people are going to switch from one side to the other.
So, the needle is pretty much where it is going to be on election day. So, if the needle stays where it is, what happens? Obama wins by a significant margin. The popular vote would slightly favor Obama, but the electoral college would dramatically favor Obama. The Republicans' problem is that their supporters are too packed in to red states. Obama is currently winning almost all the swing states in the polls.
But, that isn't the whole story because polls measure how people would vote if they showed up to vote. They aren't good at predicting turnout. Far more people say they will vote than actually show up when it actually comes down to it. So, the one fear Democrats had left was that they could suffer from an enthusiasm gap. That was a bit of a longshot anyways. Romney is one of the least liked presidential candidates in a long time. His own base was generally against him in the primaries and now is only begrudgingly on board. But still, you have to worry. With all the conspiracy theories and whatnot on the right, maybe they'd get themselves so worked up about crazy stuff that they really would show up to vote in larger numbers. But the conventions have put that fear to rest. The enthusiasm at the Democratic convention, and more importantly, the enthusiasm created by the incredibly successful, inspiring, passionate, broad, convention has been unbelievable. Comparing the two conventions side by side it is utterly obvious that the Democrats are far more pumped up than the Republicans about this election. The Republicans more or less lacked a message. People were generally bored by their convention. On the other hand, the Democrats have been ecstatic about the convention. All the real, core, moral and economic reasons that we are Democrats were brought right to the surface eloquently and forcefully. Practically every Democrat in the country is more amped up about the election now than they've ever been and Republicans are flipping the channel off the news and back to their usual programming.
This election is over.
