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Who will win the House?

Who will win the House?

  • Republicans will retain control

    Votes: 9 13.8%
  • Democrats will take control

    Votes: 43 66.2%
  • I don't know

    Votes: 13 20.0%
  • Other answer posted in the thread

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    65
  • Poll closed .
That cuts both ways. The Kavanaugh debacle and the Caravan infuriated and alienated millions of American voters.
Whether the GOP wins or loses one thing's for sure, I'll be glad when this election is over.

I don't watch Fox propaganda network. As for whether I'll be glad when it's over, I'm not sure. If Trump continues with no opposition, that's pretty scary.
 
Republican and Democratic enthusiasm are in a dead heat, so now it comes down to the simple question of which party has more voters (as well as which side are independents inclined toward, of course).

But the blue wave itself technically hasn’t lost any momentum. In fact, Democrats’ odds are better than they ever have been.

I follow quite a few Liberals and Democrat politicians on Twitter and Ive noticed that they seem to be managing their expectations, which is a big change from a couple of months ago

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.fo...ertainty-over-blue-wave-ahead-of-midterms.amp

That said I think the Democrats will regain control of the House by a slim margin while the GOP picks up 2 seats in the Senate and Cruz wins over Beto

I also think Scott will defeat Nelson.
 
I follow quite a few Liberals and Democrat politicians on Twitter and Ive noticed that they seem to be managing their expectations, which is a big change from a couple of months ago

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.fo...ertainty-over-blue-wave-ahead-of-midterms.amp

That said I think the Democrats will regain control of the House by a slim margin while the GOP picks up 2 seats in the Senate and Cruz wins over Beto

I also think Scott will defeat Nelson.

I can only speak for myself. But my general reticence is explained by feeling that the time for talk has been replaced by the time for action. My primary motive irl has been getting people to vote.
 
Same question (and answer) to those who show up at Trump rallies. Sure, having 20,000 people show up at half a dozen rallies would look impressive, but Texas has over 28 million citizens and 120,000 people is just 0.43% of the population. I don't know the actual numbers of those showing up at Trump and Beto rallies, but the concept remains the same: sure, it looks impressive, but the numbers are a meer fraction of the voting population.

Lets keep it in the realm of reality. No election gets numbers close to the state's population.

I did not ask for anyone to give me reasons Beto is not going to win. I'd rather hear why you believe cruz' numbers are so crappy for an Incumbent Senator of a Red State with a President that claims to be winning.

Where is the disconnect? How are both Cruz and Trump failing? If you don't believe that this race as close as it is..that is telling.

If Cruz loses, that is a total failure for Trump. Thats why you want no part of even considering Cruz losing.
 
I've noticed the " Blue Wave " phenomena has lost some of it's momentum. Is this because the Left doesn't think it has a chance in hell or are they simply tempering their expectations ?

It's a wave election if the Democrats take the house. Gerrymandering and self selection combine to give Republicans a huge structural advantage. After 2010 I thought the Senate would be pretty even but the House would remain Republican until the 2020s. It's kind of shocking that we're talking about a Dem win as near inevitable.

The Democrats need to win the generic ballot by 7 points to have a 50/50 shot at taking the house. Right now we're talking about a Democrats holding a 9 point advantage. In 2010 the GOP had a 7% advantage and it was record breaking to see polls with a 10pt GOP advantage. Today we're seeing outliers as high as 17% Dem advantage.

Gerrymandering works. A 9 point advantage Dem advantage is only predicted to yield as many seats as the GOP held with less than a 1 point advantage.
 
Beto won't win. Cruz had more votes in the primary than a Democrats has put together
Texans want nothing to do with Beto O'Rourke

If the Texans wanted "nothing to do with Beto O'Rourke" the race would be a blow-out. Its actually very close, which says quite the opposite, that Texans are very enamored with O'Rourke, but just not ready to leave their old guy for him.
 
Lets keep it in the realm of reality. No election gets numbers close to the state's population.

I did not ask for anyone to give me reasons Beto is not going to win. I'd rather hear why you believe cruz' numbers are so crappy for an Incumbent Senator of a Red State with a President that claims to be winning.

Where is the disconnect? How are both Cruz and Trump failing? If you don't believe that this race as close as it is..that is telling.

If Cruz loses, that is a total failure for Trump. Thats why you want no part of even considering Cruz losing.

IF. The fact remains Beto is trailing Cruz by a larger margin than Trump trailed Hillary....meaning outside the margin of error. It doesn't mean you or I have to like it. Just that it is.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/tx/texas_senate_cruz_vs_orourke-6310.html
 
Going on record. Dems pick up 36 in the House and hold a 231-204 majority.
 
It's a wave election if the Democrats take the house. Gerrymandering and self selection combine to give Republicans a huge structural advantage. After 2010 I thought the Senate would be pretty even but the House would remain Republican until the 2020s. It's kind of shocking that we're talking about a Dem win as near inevitable.

The Democrats need to win the generic ballot by 7 points to have a 50/50 shot at taking the house. Right now we're talking about a Democrats holding a 9 point advantage. In 2010 the GOP had a 7% advantage and it was record breaking to see polls with a 10pt GOP advantage. Today we're seeing outliers as high as 17% Dem advantage.

Gerrymandering works. A 9 point advantage Dem advantage is only predicted to yield as many seats as the GOP held with less than a 1 point advantage.

Frankly, republicans will never vote to get rid of Gerrymandering. They say vague platitudes of "both sides" or change the topic to the nonexistent issue of voter fraud.
What game theory tells us, is if you punish them for gerrymandering, by doing it back in 2020, then they might change their minds.
I predict the 2020s will be good years for democrats and for the country as well.
 
It's a wave election if the Democrats take the house. Gerrymandering and self selection combine to give Republicans a huge structural advantage. After 2010 I thought the Senate would be pretty even but the House would remain Republican until the 2020s. It's kind of shocking that we're talking about a Dem win as near inevitable.

The Democrats need to win the generic ballot by 7 points to have a 50/50 shot at taking the house. Right now we're talking about a Democrats holding a 9 point advantage. In 2010 the GOP had a 7% advantage and it was record breaking to see polls with a 10pt GOP advantage. Today we're seeing outliers as high as 17% Dem advantage.

Gerrymandering works. A 9 point advantage Dem advantage is only predicted to yield as many seats as the GOP held with less than a 1 point advantage.

Gerrymandering cuts both ways. Both parties do it. That said I think Senate and Gubenatorial races are a better barometer of partisan support due to neither being gerrymandered
 
Gerrymandering cuts both ways. Both parties do it. That said I think Senate and Gubenatorial races are a better barometer of partisan support due to neither being gerrymandered

Are you ready for the 2020 democratic gerrymander? I mean both sides will still be doing it, but the Democrats will be winning this time around. If you're looking for support or a "mandate" the popular vote will always describe it. The senate and gubernatorial will naturally lean a bit republican because of flyover land.
 
Gerrymandering cuts both ways. Both parties do it. That said I think Senate and Gubenatorial races are a better barometer of partisan support due to neither being gerrymandered

True. But the Republicans seem to benefit from it more. I’m not sure why, though. Maybe the Republicans are just better at it?
 
By most measures it looks like the House will change hands, the Senate on the other hand...

What it all comes down to is a repeat of prior split Congresses where little happened, other than usual spending sprees and bought votes for support.
 
Are you ready for the 2020 democratic gerrymander? I mean both sides will still be doing it, but the Democrats will be winning this time around. If you're looking for support or a "mandate" the popular vote will always describe it. The senate and gubernatorial will naturally lean a bit republican because of flyover land.

From 2010-2016 the GOP picked up 14 Governor's and won back the Senate majority, so as far as it leaning to the Right, I'm not sure that's the case.

Democrats had the Senate and all of those Governors back in 2009
 
Election history says the democrats will win the house back. There are indications that will happen.
Texas has more registered republicans that democrats. Senator Cruz will easily win reelection.


Midterm elections are sometimes regarded as a referendum on the sitting president's and/or incumbent party's performance. The party of the incumbent president tends to lose ground during midterm elections: over the past 21 midterm elections, the President's party has lost an average 30 seats in the House, and an average 4 seats in the Senate; moreover, in only two of those has the President's party gained seats in both houses.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_midterm_election
 
If the Texans wanted "nothing to do with Beto O'Rourke" the race would be a blow-out. Its actually very close, which says quite the opposite, that Texans are very enamored with O'Rourke, but just not ready to leave their old guy for him.

True, it's a close race and Beto might actually win, but the numbers seem off to me, especially when you consider that other Texas GOP candidates have double digit leads over their Democrat challengers

Last time I checked, Abbot had a 10 point lead and neither Senate races or Gubenatorial races are gerrymandered. Texas is still a very RED State, so why would Beto even be a threat here ?
 
A 24 hour poll to project who will win the House and then discuss the results after tomorrow night.

Personally, as usual, I'm going with the odds: The Democrats will take the House. What I find very interesting is that early voting (including yours truly) is up by 27 million votes. Most early voters are older, white, Christian Americans (the largest voting block in America).

fivethirtyeight.com currently has this 87% for a Democratic take over, with an expected value of D-234 and R-201.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/?ex_cid=rrpromo

In contrast, 538 had Hillary 70-30 over Trump, so this is an order of magnitude in confidence.
 
True. But the Republicans seem to benefit from it more. I’m not sure why, though. Maybe the Republicans are just better at it?

I think it's accurate to say that is just cause the GOP controlled most of the Governorships the last census year.
 
True, it's a close race and Beto might actually win, but the numbers seem off to me, especially when you consider that other Texas GOP candidates have double digit leads over their Democrat challengers

Last time I checked, Abbot had a 10 point lead and neither Senate races or Gubenatorial races are gerrymandered. Texas is still a very RED State, so why would Beto even be a threat here ?

Texas currently is a red state; but it is moving toward purple. Texas should be increasingly competitive over the next decade.

https://www.chron.com/news/houston-...ts-Texas-as-a-competitive-purple-12919625.php
 
Dems take control of the House. The GOP stranglehold on Congress is finished.

Thankfully, the party is over for Trump enablers/protectors like Devin Nunes.
 
Dems will sadly probably win the house. I dont think they'll flip the senate.
 
Republican and Democratic enthusiasm are in a dead heat, so now it comes down to the simple question of which party has more voters (as well as which side independents are inclined toward, of course).

But the blue wave itself technically hasn’t lost any momentum. In fact, Democrats’ odds are better than they ever have been.

Well, technically the "wave" was meant to be an overwhelming victory... originally envisioned to be the House and the Senate.

The "Blue wave" was not mean to be a narrow takeover of the house by 4 to 5 seats. That would be about average for a president's first midterm.

Edit: Also, I am in the "I don't know" camp because that really is the most honest response I can give. I don't think the Democrats confidence is any more helpful this time around than it was in 2016.
 
Well, technically the "wave" was meant to be an overwhelming victory... originally envisioned to be the House and the Senate.

The "Blue wave" was not mean to be a narrow takeover of the house by 4 to 5 seats. That would be about average for a president's first midterm.

Edit: Also, I am in the "I don't know" camp because that really is the most honest response I can give. I don't think the Democrats confidence is any more helpful this time around than it was in 2016.

You don't get to define what the term "wave" implies. At any rate, final polling numbers today has the Dems flipping a minimum of 35 GOP House seats.

As I see it, if Democrats gain 35-40 seats in the House and limit Republicans to no more than 52 seats in the Senate, it will be an overall Dem victory and a rebuke of Trumpism.
 
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