Who will win the House?

[Middleground]

I work with a guy who has a PhD. His thesis is voter tendencies. Based-on what he has read/seen so far he seems to think the GOP will keep the House and Senate. Hope he's wrong.

 

[SLC]

At least you acknowledge Democrats pay more in taxes than the gubmint tit sucking Neo-Cons. :lol:

At least you admit they are rich elitist that have lost touch with the common working man. You the Martha's Vineyard and Hollywood types.

 

[Divine_Wind]

I think the factors of this election favor Beto’s chances.

Ted Cruz is not exactly the most popular political figure in Texas politics and not all republicans are necessary in favor of him.


Also, Beto has been relentless in his get out the vote efforts.

I think Beto can win.

You forget that, like in 2016, no matter how deplorable the candidate, most people vote based along party lines.

The X factor here are the Independents, the largest voting block in America. Even among them, most lean right. Again, like in 2016, a lot depends upon how pissed off people are about the status quo. Hillary promised more of the same, Trump promised a shake up. In my case, I voted "shake up" by voting straight Libertarian and for every challenger, regardless of party. "Voting the bums out" is the best tool we have but, even though a lot of people say it, most people don't do it because they are, IMO, scared. Not the same fiber as our forefathers. Certainly not as brave as "the Greatest Generation". In short, too many spineless sheep and not enough wolves to make a major difference. Sad.

 

[Fenton]

Disagreed that "Beto doesn't have a chance in hell", but I will agree he'll lose. What's fascinating is that the margin is so close. Why do you think public records are "full Gestapo"? Do you think our government should keep more secrets? Remember that when the Liberals are in charge.

We had the same close margins and innacurate polling back when the Democrats thought Wendy Davis was going to defeat Rick Perry to be our new Governor.

She lost by double digits. Our current Governor has a double digit lead over his Democrat challenger, as do most GOP candidates in Texasz so the idea that Beto O'Rourke is going to win is ridiculous.
Texas is still very much a Red State, and thanks to our AG cracking down on voter fraud, its going to stay that way for some time.

And public records aren't full Gestapo, threatening messages meant to scare voter's into voting are full Gestapo

 

[Divine_Wind]

I work with a guy who has a PhD. His thesis is voter tendencies. Based-on what he has read/seen so far he seems to think the GOP will keep the House and Senate. Hope he's wrong.

As stated above, he could be correct because most people don't like change. The assclowns predicting "civil war" don't have a friggin' clue on how much angst it takes for people to risk their lives much less vote.

Like most mid-terms, we'll see a downturn in voting compared to 2016, IMO. What's interesting is the uptick in early voting, but most early voters are, like me, older white Americans. Guess where most of those go towards? I'm a bit of an outsider by voting Libertarian. Most, IMO, will vote based on the "R" at the end of the name.

 

[Fenton]

I work with a guy who has a PhD. His thesis is voter tendencies. Based-on what he has read/seen so far he seems to think the GOP will keep the House and Senate. Hope he's wrong.

They'll keep the Senate and probably gain a couple of seats. The House is doubtful

 

[Divine_Wind]

We had the same close margins and innacurate polling back when the Democrats thought Wendy Davis was going to defeat Rick Perry to be our new Governor.

She lost by double digits. Our current Governor has a double digit lead over his Democrat challenger, as do most GOP candidates in Texasz so the idea that Beto O'Rourke is going to win is ridiculous.
Texas is still very much a Red State, and thanks to our AG cracking down on voter fraud, its going to stay that way for some time.

And public records aren't full Gestapo, threatening messages meant to scare voter's into voting are full Gestapo

Voter fraud? LOL. Dude, that's more smoke than fire. I live by Roanoke, TX, very conservative as is most of northern Texas.

https://www.texastribune.org/2018/01/29/analysis-texas-politics-size-matters/

 

[Fenton]

I think the factors of this election favor Beto’s chances.

Ted Cruz is not exactly the most popular political figure in Texas politics and not all republicans are necessary in favor of him.


Also, Beto has been relentless in his get out the vote efforts.

I think Beto can win.

We had the same BS polls and innacurate predictions back when Wendy Davis ran for Governor. She lost by double digits.

That said Republican voter's in Texas are as energized as they were in 2016, if not more.

 

[SLC]

I work with a guy who has a PhD. His thesis is voter tendencies. Based-on what he has read/seen so far he seems to think the GOP will keep the House and Senate. Hope he's wrong.

If he is correct what kind of melt down will the left have.

 

[Unitedwestand13]

You forget that, like in 2016, no matter how deplorable the candidate, most people vote based along party lines.

The X factor here are the Independents, the largest voting block in America. Even among them, most lean right. Again, like in 2016, a lot depends upon how pissed off people are about the status quo. Hillary promised more of the same, Trump promised a shake up. In my case, I voted "shake up" by voting straight Libertarian and for every challenger, regardless of party. "Voting the bums out" is the best tool we have but, even though a lot of people say it, most people don't do it because they are, IMO, scared. Not the same fiber as our forefathers. Certainly not as brave as "the Greatest Generation". In short, too many spineless sheep and not enough wolves to make a major difference. Sad.

If Beto wins in Texas, I think that the votes of female independents and new voters will partly be responsible.

 

[Divine_Wind]

They'll keep the Senate and probably gain a couple of seats. The House is doubtful

I'd bet money that the Democrats take the House, but that's just playing the odds. Agreed on the Senate.

 

[Fenton]

Voter fraud? LOL. Dude, that's more smoke than fire. I live by Roanoke, TX, very conservative as is most of northern Texas.

https://www.texastribune.org/2018/01/29/analysis-texas-politics-size-matters/

Texas AG cracks down on voter fraud...
https://townhall.com/tipsheet/bethb...tion-fraud-guess-how-many-people-hes-n2533454

Texas Women arrested for voter fraud....
https://www.google.com/amp/amp.star...al/community/fort-worth/article219920740.html

 

[Divine_Wind]

If Beto wins in Texas, I think that the votes of female independents and new voters will partly be responsible.

Definitely agreed. Mostly female, IMHO, since they make up half of the voters. Mostly it's a matter of turnout. Will they or won't they? Most people are 90% talk and 10% action. Sad, but true.

 

[Fenton]

If Beto wins in Texas, I think that the votes of female independents and new voters will partly be responsible.

Cruz had more votes in the GOP primary than all the Democrats combined. No one is crossing the isle to vote for Beto

 

[HumblePi]

Not only will the Democrats take back control of the House of Representatives, they SHOULD have control of the House for some very logical reasons. Everyone knows that our government has three branches. This keeps any one part from having too much power. Sometimes people think a President is very powerful. But people must realize that Congress always keeps a watchful eye on a President's decisions. The President has special ways to check Congress and Congress has special ways to check the President.

The oversight of an opposing political party in the House is a way to prevent abuse of power. If one party holds all three branches of government, it creates an open pathway to abusing the powers ordained to them. Pretend that three people who weigh the same take turns on a seesaw. No matter which two people are on the seesaw at opposite ends, they are balanced. Our government is the same. Each branch has different powers from another branch. But each weighs the same.way.

The Constitution divided the Government into three branches, legislative, executive, and judicial for good reason. That was an important decision because it gave specific powers to each branch and set up something called checks and balances. Just like the phrase sounds, the point of checks and balances was to make sure no one branch would be able to control too much power, and it created a separation of powers.

 

[The Mark]

Texas is not up for grabs. Beto doesn't have a chance in hell.

That said it's not stopping the " Get Out the Vote " people from going full Gestapo.....
View attachment 67243707

There's always a chance.

Admittedly I think Beto's chance is less than 50%.


As for that stupid post, there will always be idiots, but that doesn't mean everyone trying to get out the vote is.

 

[SLC]

I think the factors of this election favor Beto’s chances.

Ted Cruz is not exactly the most popular political figure in Texas politics and not all republicans are necessary in favor of him.


Also, Beto has been relentless in his get out the vote efforts.

I think Beto can win.

I'm not a huge fan of Cruz and 6 years ago I voted against him in the primary but I'm much lea of a fan of Beto he is way too left for me.

 

[Middleground]

If he is correct what kind of melt down will the left have.

Seriously -- is that all you think??? Jeepers... it's like a football game to you, isn't it?

 

[Middleground]

They'll keep the Senate and probably gain a couple of seats. The House is doubtful

We'll see. He's not clairvoyant but he seems to think that the early voters have mostly been Republican.

 

[Middleground]

Cruz had more votes in the GOP primary than all the Democrats combined. No one is crossing the isle to vote for Beto

Too bad. He's such an awesome candidate.

 

[Middleground]

As stated above, he could be correct because most people don't like change. The assclowns predicting "civil war" don't have a friggin' clue on how much angst it takes for people to risk their lives much less vote.

Like most mid-terms, we'll see a downturn in voting compared to 2016, IMO. What's interesting is the uptick in early voting, but most early voters are, like me, older white Americans. Guess where most of those go towards? I'm a bit of an outsider by voting Libertarian. Most, IMO, will vote based on the "R" at the end of the name.

In a nutshell, that's pretty much what my co-worker told me.

 

[Divine_Wind]

Texas AG cracks down on voter fraud...
https://townhall.com/tipsheet/bethb...tion-fraud-guess-how-many-people-hes-n2533454

Texas Women arrested for voter fraud....
https://www.google.com/amp/amp.star...al/community/fort-worth/article219920740.html

EDIT: Sorry, I should have thanked you for the data.


WOW!!!! 33 fraud cases out of over 15 MILLION voters. Quick, what's the percentage of voter fraud based on that numbers??? If you can't do the math, let me know so I can help. EDIT: 33 out of 15 million is a blip, not a conspiracy. Sorry.

BTW, $20 says that most of those cases were from family members misuse of absentee ballots, not some assclown showing up and claiming to be someone else or, more laughable, being an illegal showing a fake ID.

 

[The Mark]

Cruz had more votes in the GOP primary than all the Democrats combined. No one is crossing the isle to vote for Beto

Usually less people vote in the primary than general election though, plus there are independent voters, etc.

I don't know that means Beto might win, but it's a factor.

 

[Captain America]

Republican and Democratic enthusiasm are in a dead heat, so now it comes down to the simple question of which party has more voters (as well as which side independents are inclined toward, of course).

But the blue wave itself technically hasn’t lost any momentum. In fact, Democrats’ odds are better than they ever have been.

Democrats need to realize that just having more voters does not necessarily mean they will win elections, what with the gerrymandering advantage that has benefitted their opposing party. If majority vote was the decisive measure, Trump wouldn't be president (in relation to presidential elections and the EC,) and states wouldn't have law suits bouncing arount the courts in regards to their unfair gerrymandering, thereby usurping the will of the majorities.

No. Today's elections, the Republican party is given a "handicap," much like a novice golfer might be given. That means democrats will have to not only out vote them, but out vote them with a tsunami vengence. Close only counts in horse shoes and hand grenades.

 

[Anagram]

We had the same BS polls and innacurate predictions back when Wendy Davis ran for Governor. She lost by double digits.

That said Republican voter's in Texas are as energized as they were in 2016, if not more.

While I do remember Davis's campaign garnered an unnecessary amount of media attention considering it was never a close race, I'd like to point out that she never led nor tied in any poll of that race, and only in one poll in all of 2014 was the margin single digits (9%). Additionally, the only poll in the last two weeks of that race got it exactly right. I don't see any BS polls from that race.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_gubernatorial_election,_2014

That said, this certainly doesn't mean O'Rourke will win. Polls, by and large, have had him down and Cruz at or approaching 50%. For O'Rourke to win, the Texas polls don't just have to be accurate, they have to be underestimating him.