• This is a political forum that is non-biased/non-partisan and treats every person's position on topics equally. This debate forum is not aligned to any political party. In today's politics, many ideas are split between and even within all the political parties. Often we find ourselves agreeing on one platform but some topics break our mold. We are here to discuss them in a civil political debate. If this is your first visit to our political forums, be sure to check out the RULES. Registering for debate politics is necessary before posting. Register today to participate - it's free!

Who will be the Republican nominee?

Who will be the Republican Nominee?


  • Total voters
    50

upsideguy

Pragmatic Idealist
DP Veteran
Joined
Nov 14, 2009
Messages
18,592
Reaction score
11,627
Location
Rocky Mtn. High
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Progressive
Pop the popcorn and chill the beer, the 2016 Republican nomination just got far more entertaining. With Trump clearly thumped in Wisconsin, his ability to secure the 1237 delegates necessary for the nomination seems a tad bit out of reach. With the campaign now turning northeast, Cruz' win in Wisconsin is but a mirage as his brand of Republican don't sell well in Philadelphia, New York, Boston, Hartford or Providence.

Cleveland is likely to be a contested convention. At a contested convention, the delegates are bound in the 1st round. In the 2nd round of balloting, its up to the rules of the delegates. Will the delegates affirm the rules of 2012 and require an 8 state victory threshold? If so, it would be Cruz v. Trump, with one of them the likely victor. Will Trump outdeal Cruz or will Cruz out politic Trump?

If it goes beyond, its any man's game. The convention will likely focus on an outsider... Romney? Ryan? Gingrich? Who?

Who will leave Cleveland with the Republican nomination?

1) Trump?
2) Cruz?
3) Kasich?
4) Rubio?
5) Ryan?
6) Romney?
7) Gingrich?
8) Clinton?
9) Other?

Don't tell us who you want, tell us who you think it will be. Discuss...
 
Last edited:

TheDemSocialist

Gradualist
DP Veteran
Joined
Apr 13, 2011
Messages
34,951
Reaction score
16,310
Gender
Undisclosed
Political Leaning
Socialist
Im gonna bet my money now on Paul Ryan.....

This whole process is such a cluster ****
 

Chomsky

Social Democrat
DP Veteran
Joined
Apr 28, 2015
Messages
59,852
Reaction score
46,624
Location
Third Coast
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Other
I'm going to say Ryan -

It's going to be a hard slog, but the GOP don't want Trump or Cruz, so I'm thinking now that the convention is going to be brokered they're just going to go for the guy they really want, after having survived a guy they didn't like for so long during the nomination process!

I think they learned their lesson with guys they don't want!
 

chuckiechan

DP Veteran
Joined
Dec 2, 2015
Messages
16,568
Reaction score
7,252
Location
California Caliphate
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Independent
It's either Trump, Cruz, or suicide.

We'll see if Trump has got the message to be more presidential. If not, it will be Cruz.

If the RNC snatches the leaders and "disposes" of them by some lawyerly rules, the RNC is done and a new party will have to emerge even if the RNC has to field a compromise candidate and win by default in 2016 because Hillary crashes and burns.

They won't have the support in 2020 unless they fulfill the promises of both Cruz and Trump.
 

Chomsky

Social Democrat
DP Veteran
Joined
Apr 28, 2015
Messages
59,852
Reaction score
46,624
Location
Third Coast
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Other
It's either Trump, Cruz, or suicide.

We'll see if Trump has got the message to be more presidential. If not, it will be Cruz.

If the RNC snatches the leaders and "disposes" of them by some lawyerly rules, the RNC is done and a new party will have to emerge even if they have to field a compromise candidate and win by default in 2016 because Hillary crashes and burns.

They won't have the support in 2020 unless they fulfill the promises of both Cruz and Trump.
They may begrudgingly accept Cruz (for the reasons you mentioned), but Trump is toast. They don't like him, they don't want him, he's not going to win 1237 - and that's all she wrote!
 

joG

DP Veteran
Joined
Jul 27, 2013
Messages
43,839
Reaction score
9,638
Gender
Undisclosed
Political Leaning
Independent
It's either Trump, Cruz, or suicide.

We'll see if Trump has got the message to be more presidential. If not, it will be Cruz.

If the RNC snatches the leaders and "disposes" of them by some lawyerly rules, the RNC is done and a new party will have to emerge even if the RNC has to field a compromise candidate and win by default in 2016 because Hillary crashes and burns.

They won't have the support in 2020 unless they fulfill the promises of both Cruz and Trump.

What dismal prospects.
 

Fiddytree

Neocon Elitist
DP Veteran
Joined
Jul 9, 2008
Messages
29,961
Reaction score
17,358
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Centrist
If it won't be Kasich, I doubt it will be anyone but either Trump or Cruz. Regardless, if it comes to that, I'm hoping the whole thing comes crashing down and they get burned big time in the fall. The Republican Party is on the verge of needing the biggest bitch slap money and power can buy.
 

Kobie

Banned
DP Veteran
Joined
Sep 17, 2013
Messages
48,281
Reaction score
25,273
Location
Western NY
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Liberal
Im gonna bet my money now on Paul Ryan.....

This whole process is such a cluster ****

This is a colossal mess, but I honestly think it will be Trump. He'll lose in a general, but I still think it will be the Orange Wonder.
 

Mycroft

Genius is where you find it.
DP Veteran
Joined
Oct 27, 2011
Messages
78,459
Reaction score
32,419
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Conservative
I selected "other", simply because I don't know who the GOP Elite will pick if Trump doesn't get the 1237 delegates...except that I know it won't be Cruz, who most definitely won't get 1237 delegates.
 

Chomsky

Social Democrat
DP Veteran
Joined
Apr 28, 2015
Messages
59,852
Reaction score
46,624
Location
Third Coast
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Other
I selected "other", simply because I don't know who the GOP Elite will pick if Trump doesn't get the 1237 delegates...except that I know it won't be Cruz, who most definitely won't get 1237 delegates.
I'm with you on Cruz, I think.

1] - Trump will not get to 1237 - they hate him, so out he goes.
2] - Cruz is hated 2nd only to Trump, so bye bye.
3] - Ryan gets drafted, and accepts!

Actually though, I'm not sure they'll have the guts to dump Cruz and lose any last vestiges of the pretext that they respect their voters; so Cruz just might squeak by. But Trump is already history as of yesterday, and for the GOP it's not a second too early!
 

joG

DP Veteran
Joined
Jul 27, 2013
Messages
43,839
Reaction score
9,638
Gender
Undisclosed
Political Leaning
Independent
I'm with you on Cruz, I think.

1] - Trump will not get to 1237 - they hate him, so out he goes.
2] - Cruz is hated 2nd only to Trump, so bye bye.
3] - Ryan gets drafted, and accepts!

Actually though, I'm not sure they'll have the guts to dump Cruz and lose any last vestiges of the pretext that they respect their voters; so Cruz just might squeak by. But Trump is already history as of yesterday, and for the GOP it's not a second too early!

You think he has a better chance than Kasich? That is interesting.
 

Sweden

DP Veteran
Joined
Jan 15, 2016
Messages
5,827
Reaction score
2,449
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Libertarian - Right
The Republicans will reject Trump and hand the Presidency to Clinton. So it does not in the least matter who their nominal, doomed to lose, candidate will be.
 

OrphanSlug

A sinister place...
DP Veteran
Joined
Sep 24, 2011
Messages
27,006
Reaction score
23,761
Location
Atlanta
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Independent
I have no idea now.

I have been saying that Trump, no matter if he had enough delegates or not, would end up facing a GOP convention full of establishment driven arguments, backroom deals, rules changes, brokering, and all sorts of media ready shenanigans.

Best I can tell post Wisconsin, Trump is still far enough out front and there are still enough delegates left for him to make it to 1,237. I am just not convinced it matters who ends up with however many delegates, the convention will be talked about for a long time and I am on the fence on whom the GOP will hand the nomination to.

Voted other.
 

WI Crippler

DP Veteran
Joined
Oct 10, 2006
Messages
15,427
Reaction score
9,577
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Centrist
The republicans best bet is to go with Cruz, lose the general with him and hold seats in Congress in 2018 mid terms because of reactionary public perception of a Democratic president (for what will have been 10 years). Trump would burn the party to the ground in a general. Cruz would just be another no-name in the dust bin of presidential losers that doesn't actually do much damage to the party brand.
 

SenorXm/Sirius

DP Veteran
Joined
Feb 23, 2015
Messages
17,062
Reaction score
12,843
Location
New York State, USA
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Slightly Liberal
I'll say Ryan.

Cruz is way too far to the right to carry any of the purple states. And the GOP knows this. So they'll push for Ryan. Because of the Electoral votes any GOP nom needs to carry a few purple states. Cruz is just too conservative and quite frankly too slimy to get enough moderates and Indy's to vote for him.
 

Redress

Liberal Fascist For Life!
Moderator
DP Veteran
Joined
Mar 5, 2008
Messages
108,708
Reaction score
53,072
Location
Bradenton Fla
Gender
Undisclosed
Political Leaning
Very Liberal
Pop the popcorn and chill the beer, the 2016 Republican nomination just got far more entertaining. With Trump clearly thumped in Wisconsin, his ability to secure the 1237 delegates necessary for the nomination seems a tad bit out of reach. With the campaign now turning northeast, Cruz' win in Wisconsin is but a mirage as his brand of Republican don't sell well in Philadelphia, New York, Boston, Hartford or Providence.

Cleveland is likely to be a contested convention. At a contested convention, the delegates are bound in the 1st round. In the 2nd round of balloting, its up to the rules of the delegates. Will the delegates affirm the rules of 2012 and require an 8 state victory threshold? If so, it would be Cruz v. Trump, with one of them the likely victor. Will Trump outdeal Cruz or will Cruz out politic Trump?

If it goes beyond, its any man's game. The convention will likely focus on an outsider... Romney? Ryan? Gingrich? Who?

Who will leave Cleveland with the Republican nomination?

1) Trump?
2) Cruz?
3) Kasich?
4) Rubio?
5) Ryan?
6) Romney?
7) Gingrich?
8) Clinton?
9) Other?

Don't tell us who you want, tell us who you think it will be. Discuss...

Assuming it is a contested convention(which is not a surety), it becomes a really interesting question, but most possibilities eliminate fairly easily. It won't be some one not in the race now, as that would further splinter the party, and puts the candidate at a major disadvantage having to start way behind the democrat. Why risk damaging a Ryan this year when a loss seems likely, when there is no major gain? Kasich is also probably out(though a likely VP contender) as his base of support simply is not strong enough. So we are back to the two front runners. If Cruz gets close to Trump's delegate total(or passes him), but does not reach 1237, then he would likely get the nomination in the second round. It is simply the least painful alternative. If Cruz does not get close though, then more than likely I think the delegates will see the least damage from just letting Trump run and taking their lumps. It sucks from their point of view, but the harm done will be transitory and easily undone in 4 years.
 

shagg

Wading Through Bull****
DP Veteran
Joined
Jun 28, 2013
Messages
1,681
Reaction score
1,219
Location
Rhode Island
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Independent
I see them pushing for Kasich. He's been in the race the whole time (as in technically participating, but never had a chance to win it), he has some crossover/independent appeal, and polls well in hypotheticals. They know they might as well throw in the towel if Cruz or Trump end up with the nomination. Ryan .... I mean I know they can pick him, but I just remember him as Romney's sidekick and being a "christian first american second" type. Santorum-lite maybe. As much as a portion of the base wants that type of candidate, its poison in the general. I think they're smart enough to know that and will go with Kasich, who doesn't have that issue at all. They may see Ryan as having some appeal to millenials, who are already miffed at Shillary. I'd still call that a bad move though, no ones getting excited about Ryan, and if Bernie loses most millenials won't bother to vote.
 

WCH

Believer
DP Veteran
Joined
Mar 30, 2013
Messages
30,953
Reaction score
9,018
Location
The Lone Star State.
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Conservative
I voted in the TX primary for Cruz but, I don't have any faith in the GOP. :moon::moon::moon:
 

calamity

Privileged
Supporting Member
DP Veteran
Monthly Donator
Joined
Feb 12, 2013
Messages
160,900
Reaction score
57,750
Gender
Undisclosed
Political Leaning
Centrist
Pop the popcorn and chill the beer, the 2016 Republican nomination just got far more entertaining. With Trump clearly thumped in Wisconsin, his ability to secure the 1237 delegates necessary for the nomination seems a tad bit out of reach. With the campaign now turning northeast, Cruz' win in Wisconsin is but a mirage as his brand of Republican don't sell well in Philadelphia, New York, Boston, Hartford or Providence.

Cleveland is likely to be a contested convention. At a contested convention, the delegates are bound in the 1st round. In the 2nd round of balloting, its up to the rules of the delegates. Will the delegates affirm the rules of 2012 and require an 8 state victory threshold? If so, it would be Cruz v. Trump, with one of them the likely victor. Will Trump outdeal Cruz or will Cruz out politic Trump?

If it goes beyond, its any man's game. The convention will likely focus on an outsider... Romney? Ryan? Gingrich? Who?

Who will leave Cleveland with the Republican nomination?

1) Trump?
2) Cruz?
3) Kasich?
4) Rubio?
5) Ryan?
6) Romney?
7) Gingrich?
8) Clinton?
9) Other?

Don't tell us who you want, tell us who you think it will be. Discuss...

I'm all in for John. Here's to hoping Kasich somehow pulls this out.
 

WCH

Believer
DP Veteran
Joined
Mar 30, 2013
Messages
30,953
Reaction score
9,018
Location
The Lone Star State.
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Conservative
I see them pushing for Kasich. He's been in the race the whole time (as in technically participating, but never had a chance to win it), he has some crossover/independent appeal, and polls well in hypotheticals. They know they might as well throw in the towel if Cruz or Trump end up with the nomination. Ryan .... I mean I know they can pick him, but I just remember him as Romney's sidekick and being a "christian first american second" type. Santorum-lite maybe. As much as a portion of the base wants that type of candidate, its poison in the general. I think they're smart enough to know that and will go with Kasich, who doesn't have that issue at all. They may see Ryan as having some appeal to millenials, who are already miffed at Shillary. I'd still call that a bad move though, no ones getting excited about Ryan, and if Bernie loses most millenials won't bother to vote.

Kasich is a Leftist but, doesn't know it. Of course he has cross-over appeal.
 

calamity

Privileged
Supporting Member
DP Veteran
Monthly Donator
Joined
Feb 12, 2013
Messages
160,900
Reaction score
57,750
Gender
Undisclosed
Political Leaning
Centrist
I'll say Ryan.

Cruz is way too far to the right to carry any of the purple states. And the GOP knows this. So they'll push for Ryan. Because of the Electoral votes any GOP nom needs to carry a few purple states. Cruz is just too conservative and quite frankly too slimy to get enough moderates and Indy's to vote for him.

Kasich is the guy to win Purple states. Ryan has issues. He may not win Ohio. Kasich will for sure. He probably wins Florida too.
 

SenorXm/Sirius

DP Veteran
Joined
Feb 23, 2015
Messages
17,062
Reaction score
12,843
Location
New York State, USA
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Slightly Liberal
Kasich is the guy to win Purple states. Ryan has issues. He may not win Ohio. Kasich will for sure. He probably wins Florida too.

Yeah, but Ryan is more well known. He was Romney's VP choice. He's Speaker of the House.

And quite frankly in the current condition of the GOP, Kasich might be seen as too moderate. Even without a Trump to screw up this years campaign, because of the current mess in the GOP, they have quite a balancing act on their hands. They need someone conservative enough to keep the very vocal far right base happy, but someone moderate enough to not piss off the moderate and Indy voters.

I doubt Kasich will make the far right, that 30% or so of the GOP base happy. Nominating Kasich might be enough for that 30% to split from the GOP. On the other hand Ryan might, MIGHT be conservative enough to keep that 30% happy, or at least semi-happy. And mod enough to get some moderate votes.

Of course all of this depends on if Ryan would run.
 

calamity

Privileged
Supporting Member
DP Veteran
Monthly Donator
Joined
Feb 12, 2013
Messages
160,900
Reaction score
57,750
Gender
Undisclosed
Political Leaning
Centrist
Yeah, but Ryan is more well known. He was Romney's VP choice. He's Speaker of the House.

And quite frankly in the current condition of the GOP, Kasich might be seen as too moderate. Even without a Trump to screw up this years campaign, because of the current mess in the GOP, they have quite a balancing act on their hands. They need someone conservative enough to keep the very vocal far right base happy, but someone moderate enough to not piss off the moderate and Indy voters.

I doubt Kasich will make the far right, that 30% or so of the GOP base happy. Nominating Kasich might be enough for that 30% to split from the GOP. On the other hand Ryan might, MIGHT be conservative enough to keep that 30% happy, or at least semi-happy. And mod enough to get some moderate votes.

Of course all of this depends on if Ryan would run.

The Far Right hates Kasich. I saw a FB meme the other day saying he was pro-abortion, gay marriage, assault weapons bans, etc. Of course, he's not. But, you know how they are.

IMO, they deserve saying President Sanders or Clinton for the next 4 years.
 

shagg

Wading Through Bull****
DP Veteran
Joined
Jun 28, 2013
Messages
1,681
Reaction score
1,219
Location
Rhode Island
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Independent
Kasich is a Leftist but, doesn't know it. Of course he has cross-over appeal.

Fielding a leftist may be the only way you'll see an (R) in the oval office
 
Top Bottom