Who will be the Republican nominee?

[Hawkeye10]

Trump on the second ballot, 65% confidence.

 

[jet57]

Im gonna bet my money now on Paul Ryan.....

This whole process is such a cluster ****

Koch is sponsoring Ryan now. I think it's gonna be Trump. The smart money will just let him get beat fair and square and just forget about it and do something smart for 2020.

 

[clownboy]

Koch is sponsoring Ryan now. I think it's gonna be Trump. The smart money will just let him get beat fair and square and just forget about it and do something smart for 2020.

I don't think the RNC power players are in the "smart" frame of mind right now. It's the thrashing of the dinosaur stage for them. The veil has been lifted enough that the party members have seen, and rejected, the man behind the curtain. It's not about party principle with the established figures right now, it's about the survival of personal power and control.

 

[haymarket]

That would work well for the Democrats, wouldn't it? Yeah....

In the short run - yes it would. In the long run - the Republican party needs to get a serious enema to purge itself of the infection of right libertarians and tea party folk that have tried to hijack it over the last years. So this is all just necessary and the GOP is not going to win the White House until that changed. The Republicans are strapped to a demographic time bomb that only increases its explosive power every four years against them . They must throw off the chains of their past and must reform and expand beyond the angry white mans party.

So this is just a part of that process. Trump is only speeding up the inevitable.

 

[haymarket]

Trump on the second ballot, 65% confidence.

I can see Trump winning on the first ballot if he takes New York, Pennsylvania and California. And then he should win.

How do you envision him winning on the second ballot when the GOP insiders are already maneuvering to screw him out truly Trump delegates who would stay loyal beyond the first round in many states?

I would be interested in your thinking process on this. thanks.

 

[haymarket]

If I were Trump, I would get out ads trumpeting NEW YORK VALUES. The would both quote Cruz showing him to be a foreigner who hates New York - as well as a vote for Trump is a vote for positive NEW YORK VALUES.

He could then hit 60% and win in a landslide there.

 

[vesper]

I agree with the most of that, except for this last line above. Cruz has only beat Hillary in one of these national polls on the general head to head.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election: Cruz vs. Clinton

Afternoon Clownboy the link you posted shows Clinton up 3 in several polls, but that also falls in the MOE, Cruz+1 in one poll and tied in another covering just the last couple of weeks. Prior to that Cruz had a stretch where he was ahead of Clinton from January 7 to March 14, see graph at bottom of your link. Also Trump against Clinton has him trailing in double digits or high singles.

 

[Hawkeye10]

I don't think the RNC power players are in the "smart" frame of mind right now. It's the thrashing of the dinosaur stage for them. The veil has been lifted enough that the party members have seen, and rejected, the man behind the curtain. It's not about party principle with the established figures right now, it's about the survival of personal power and control.

IT is about preserving power mostly, but they also have been shamed by the lefty elite for "allowing" Trump to happen, with a stipulation that the rightly elite now have a moral obligation to stop Trump if they want to maintain their elite member status.

Stupid cucks. The R elite not standing up to the D elite is the main reason much of their base has deserted them for Trump in the first place.

 

[Casper]

At this point it will not matter which, Cruz or Trump, gets the nomination, the GOP is too split for them to win the Whitehouse. Clue for Republicans: find a way to vet your candidates or get used to losing the Whitehouse to Democrats.
I had so hoped that this election would be better in choices, unfortunately we actually got worse, concentrate on the candidates running for other offices, at least we have a real say in those elections.

 

[Hawkeye10]

I can see Trump winning on the first ballot if he takes New York, Pennsylvania and California. And then he should win.

How do you envision him winning on the second ballot when the GOP insiders are already maneuvering to screw him out truly Trump delegates who would stay loyal beyond the first round in many states?

I would be interested in your thinking process on this. thanks.

He could still win on the first but he would need to do something that he has not been able to do, which is to grow his base fast. Also, while I never want to count Trump out because he is always full of surprises it is hard to see how he turns on a dime right at this moment with his staff so thin and it is claimed by some in disarray. I think Trump messed up his main claim to the throne (competence), and I dont think he has time to fix that before Cleveland, though he can make a good start.

As I said in another thread I dont think that the Elite will allow Cruz to be the nominee, even though he thinks he is the only not Trump still standing with any claim to the throne. I think that the elite will try to put in Kasich or Ryan or maybe even someone else, and at that point Cruz will throw in with Trump, agree to be his VP. These two will make their pitch to the delegates as being the people's choice, and it will be pointed out that if the people are not obeyed then there will be riots, and the party will be toast, so there is no option but to nominate Trump/Cruz. Trump will give Cruz a lot of power, which is what he wants, and he will be in a perfect position to run in 4 years for POTUS, because I dont think Trump is interested in doing more than 4 years.

The establishment pitch will be about branding of the party and beating Hillary. The Trump/Cruz pitch will be about obeying the will of the people and the very existence of the party surviving....and that riots suck.

Trump/Cruz win.

 

[Removable Mind]

Chuck Hagel might be good choice, but he wouldn't accept.

 

[matchlight]

I think it will probably be Ted Cruz. I heard George Will discussing that this morning, and that is also his view. He believes what happened in Wisconsin changed the whole ball game, and was the beginning of the end for Trump.

 

[Hawkeye10]

Rush today:

WALLACE: He came and sat with us and said that it is more important to maintain the principles and the dignity and the honor of the conservative movement with someone like Ted Cruz who he acknowledged may lose in November than to roll the dice with someone like Donald Trump. I shared this rumor, there's talk in Washington that "lose with Cruz" is becoming a bit of a punch line.

BROWNSTEIN: Better to lose with Cruz.

WALLACE: Better to lose with Cruz.

RUSH: Well, she's establishment. I mean, you may not like hearing that, but she is. She is part of the establishment establishment. So if she says that there are jokes running around inside the establishment with a punch line "better to lose with Cruz," then you've gotta believe that some people are indeed actually saying so. It's an interesting observation from F. Chuck Todd about Lindsey Grahamnesty. "Hey, Senator Cruz, we're on the way here to an open convention. We're on the way to denying Trump." Not, "Congratulations, Senator. We're on the way to you winning the nomination."

GOP Establishment Still Eyeing Way to Steal Nomination from Trump or Cruz - The Rush Limbaugh Show

And this is something that I have been saying for days....if the establishment was going to allow Cruz he would have a lot more establishment muckety mucks endorsing him. THey are using him to stop Trump, but they will not willingly allow him the throne anymore than they will allow Trump to have it. Cruz and Trump are going to have to come together and take it by force.

 

[Hawkeye10]

Chuck Hagel might be good choice, but he wouldn't accept.

What? He was a disaster at DOD, a completely incompetent cuck.

And his brand was not so hot before he took the job.

 

[Fiddytree]

If I were Trump, I would get out ads trumpeting NEW YORK VALUES. The would both quote Cruz showing him to be a foreigner who hates New York - as well as a vote for Trump is a vote for positive NEW YORK VALUES.

He could then hit 60% and win in a landslide there.

Trump's poll numbers there are between 52-55%, and as such he's the overwhelming favorite in New York. Still, that would be an enormously good advertisement to play in the northeast.

You can't continue to strum the "listen to country music, watch NASCAR. We are the true Americans" bull**** without it biting you in the bum.

 

[haymarket]

Trump's poll numbers are between 52-55%, and he's the overwhelming favorite in New York. Still, that would be an enormously good at to play in the northeast.

Trump cannot pass up the chance to run the table in New York and he needs to spend big time in the media to make sure that happens.

New York is about as opposite as Utah as you can get. And he needs to take those Utah results and turn them upside down in his home state to send a message - not just to Cruz but the GOP establishment as well.

 

[Fiddytree]

I can see Trump winning on the first ballot if he takes New York, Pennsylvania and California. And then he should win.

How do you envision him winning on the second ballot when the GOP insiders are already maneuvering to screw him out truly Trump delegates who would stay loyal beyond the first round in many states?

I would be interested in your thinking process on this. thanks.

He won't take California, though.

 

[haymarket]

Rush today:


GOP Establishment Still Eyeing Way to Steal Nomination from Trump or Cruz - The Rush Limbaugh Show

And this is something that I have been saying for days....if the establishment was going to allow Cruz he would have a lot more establishment muckety mucks endorsing him. THey are using him to stop Trump, but they will not willingly allow him the throne anymore than they will allow Trump to have it. Cruz and Trump are going to have to come together and take it by force.

If you think a woman is fat and ugly and smells bad and has bad habits that turn you off - her being the last one at the bar at closing time may not be enough for you. I think that explains what you just accurately described.

 

[haymarket]

He won't take California, though.

What do you think will happen there?

 

[Removable Mind]

What? He was a disaster at DOD, a completely incompetent cuck.

And his brand was not so hot before he took the job.

Uh huh. He just wouldn't play suck ass with the Republicans. And he certainly didn't with the Dems. But, you're entitled to your opinion...as am I.

 

[haymarket]

I think it will probably be Ted Cruz. I heard George Will discussing that this morning, and that is also his view. He believes what happened in Wisconsin changed the whole ball game, and was the beginning of the end for Trump.

And in two weeks in New York they will be saying the same thing about the beginning the end for Cruz.
And neither is accurate.

 

[NeverTrump]

I see them pushing for Kasich. He's been in the race the whole time (as in technically participating, but never had a chance to win it), he has some crossover/independent appeal, and polls well in hypotheticals. They know they might as well throw in the towel if Cruz or Trump end up with the nomination. Ryan .... I mean I know they can pick him, but I just remember him as Romney's sidekick and being a "christian first american second" type. Santorum-lite maybe. As much as a portion of the base wants that type of candidate, its poison in the general. I think they're smart enough to know that and will go with Kasich, who doesn't have that issue at all. They may see Ryan as having some appeal to millenials, who are already miffed at Shillary. I'd still call that a bad move though, no ones getting excited about Ryan, and if Bernie loses most millenials won't bother to vote.

This is the same scenario I see with a contested convention. Kasich is not leaving especially since he is propped up by a couple of close billionaires (not koch's) and more seem to keep endorsing him. Kasich has a very interesting history with contested conventions. Since he basically uprooted the entire Ohio government so that they could be more loyal to him. He has the same plan going in here with the delegates. I think John Kasich is one of the most powerful political figures in the country at the moment and the contested convention is his to lose.

BTW as much as I hate that word, I am a millennial.

 

[clownboy]

I think it will probably be Ted Cruz. I heard George Will discussing that this morning, and that is also his view. He believes what happened in Wisconsin changed the whole ball game, and was the beginning of the end for Trump.

Will has been predicting Trump's demise since the beginning. Wisconsin changed nothing. He's still going to go into the convention with such a large lead over Cruz that any other election he would have been given the nomination. People aren't going to forgive and forget that.

 

[Hawkeye10]

If you think a woman is fat and ugly and smells bad and has bad habits that turn you off - her being the last one at the bar at closing time may not be enough for you. I think that explains what you just accurately described.

you missed the part about her spending the first 15 minutes flirting, then the next two hours being a bitch and causing trouble throughout the bar, and then when she is found to be the last woman left on the market fully expecting someone will take her home in spite of everything she has done.

Probably not.

Except for Trump.

She is still useful to Trump.

And while they may or may not already have a deal, I think they will have one by closing time.

 

[Fiddytree]

What do you think will happen there?

Probably Cruz by a few points or a bit more.

Cruz is shaping up to be largely a western candidate, whereas Trump's scattered throughout the old Midwest, South, and North East. I think we largely have an east-west split on our hands.