What an Israeli Strike On Iran Might Look Like

[FlanaganReport]

The Center for Strategic and International Studies did a study on what an Israeli strike against Iranian nuclear sites would look like. It goes through number of planes needed, routes, projected losses, flying patterns of tankers, political backlash, etc... It is worth the read.

Some highlights:

A military strike by Israel against Iranian Nuclear Facilities is possible and the optimum route would be along the Syrian-Turkish border then over a small portion of Iraq then into Iran, and back the same route. However, the number of aircraft required, refueling along the way and getting to the targets without being detected or intercepted would be complex and high risk and would lack any assurances that the overall mission will have a high success rate.

• With regard to the Arab States, most probably they will not condone any attack on Iran under the pretext that Iran poses an existential threat to Israel and a security threat to the whole region, whilst Israel has some 200 to 300 nuclear weapons, and the delivery means using the Jericho missiles, in addition to Israel still occupying the West Bank and the Syrian Golan Heights.

• The more there is an Israeli threat to the survival of the regime in Iran, the more Iran will be determined to acquire nuclear weapons. Iran would withdraw from the NPT based on the argument that it needs to acquire nuclear weapons to protect its sovereignty and any further aggression by Israel and the U.S.

• A strike by Israel on Iran will give rise to regional instability and conflict as well as terrorism.

Certainly we can debate the points, but it sets up a good foundation to understand the complexities of a large scale military operation. Read the whole study here.

 

[RightinNYC]

One thing that the report (surprisingly) fails to mention is the Israeli strike against the Syrian nuclear reactor, which, as far as I can tell, resulted in absolutely no backlash/losses/destablization/etc.

If I were trying to predict how the ME would react to an Israeli strike against a nuclear reactor in an Arab nation, one would think that I would look to the recent Israeli strike against a nuclear reactor in an Arab nation for some clues.

It's quite possible that the strike against Iran would have completely different repercussions, but you'd think that they would at least explain why they concluded it would.

 

[FlanaganReport]

One thing that the report (surprisingly) fails to mention is the Israeli strike against the Syrian nuclear reactor, which, as far as I can tell, resulted in absolutely no backlash/losses/destablization/etc.

If I were trying to predict how the ME would react to an Israeli strike against a nuclear reactor in an Arab nation, one would think that I would look to the recent Israeli strike against a nuclear reactor in an Arab nation for some clues.

Well, Iran is not an Arab nations, but aside from that I wager there are more issues at play in the Syrian incident. Syria is not (was not) capable of action alone in any significant response. The total silence from the rest of the Middle East was a telling sign that (at least to me) showed other Arab states were not going to be offering any assistance for a Syrian response.

Of course that said, Syria continues to support terrorist groups and Iranian proxies. If there has been escalation in that regard, I would have to do more research. Then of course there is the whole idea that there really was no strike at all, and therefore nothing to respond to.

Additionally, there are the questions over the nuclear issue with the strike. If Syria opened itself up to this, they faced far greater international backlash, so it makes sense in a way to just let it go. Iran on the other hand, does not have this situation, and is fully capable of responding on its own, with or without help from the Middle East.

It's quite possible that the strike against Iran would have completely different repercussions, but you'd think that they would at least explain why they concluded it would.

True, perhaps we are taking it for granted that Iran would respond, but (to me at least) I just do not see what they have to gain by not. Syria at least had something to gain in my view by not making it a huge deal, whereas Iran does not.

 

[gree0232]

Well, here is an interesting factoid. To get to Iraq, Israeli fighters must pass through Iraq's airspace.

Guess who is responsible for Iraq's airspace? The US.

Anyone else see any possibe complications?

 

[FlanaganReport]

Well, here is an interesting factoid. To get to Iraq, Israeli fighters must pass through Iraq's airspace.

Guess who is responsible for Iraq's airspace? The US.

Anyone else see any possibe complications?

Well, they don't actually have to, it is just much easier for them to. Also, could see a missile attack by land or sea to circumvent that problem in a manner.

All of that said, Iraq has traditionally hated Iran. I would not be overly surprised (even with the religious element) if Iraq just let it go if Israel actually did this.

 

[gree0232]

Well, they don't actually have to, it is just much easier for them to. Also, could see a missile attack by land or sea to circumvent that problem in a manner.

All of that said, Iraq has traditionally hated Iran. I would not be overly surprised (even with the religious element) if Iraq just let it go if Israel actually did this.

Not really an answer. I am well aware that Iraq and Iran do not get along. That does not chang ethe fact that the US military currently has responsibility for Iraqi airspace. The decisin to allow a flight across that territory ultimately rests with the US.

Do you really think that Al-Maliki will come out after a strike and say, "Yep, Iraq, an Arab state, authorized a Jewish states to attack another Muslim state. What's the big deal?"

Israel has no missiles capable of hitting the irainain facility, and the deployment of its very small naval assets to the Persian Gulf to launch a strike is simply not feasible.

To claim otherwise it to avoid the reality of the situation.

 

[CaptainCourtesy]

http://www.debatepolitics.com/middle-east/57330-marital-law-me-forum.html

 

[FlanaganReport]

Not really an answer. I am well aware that Iraq and Iran do not get along. That does not chang ethe fact that the US military currently has responsibility for Iraqi airspace. The decisin to allow a flight across that territory ultimately rests with the US.

That is just not true at all.

Article 9 Section 3 of the Status of Forces Agreement (which came into effect January 2009) expressly states: "Surveillance and control over Iraqi airspace shall transfer to Iraqi authority immediately upon entry into force of this Agreement."

So, I am not quite sure what you basing your statement on that the United States is in charge of the airspace? You could perhaps say that in practical terms we control it, but we have no legal authority to grant an overflight for anyone.

Do you really think that Al-Maliki will come out after a strike and say, "Yep, Iraq, an Arab state, authorized a Jewish states to attack another Muslim state. What's the big deal?"

I think he would not come out and say anything at all, or if he did it would be a weak condemnation, followed by no action. A rising Iran is a direct threat to many other states in the Middle East. Those states are certainly not going to rush to defend Iran should they be knocked back a bit.

Israel has no missiles capable of hitting the irainain facility, and the deployment of its very small naval assets to the Persian Gulf to launch a strike is simply not feasible.

The Jericho III missile came into service in 2008. Depending on the warhead that is used, it has a range that includes North America. I assure you, Iran is well within its range.

 

[mbig]

Very difficult.
Iran has had Many years to spread out and harden targets and set up air defenses.
And of course all the possible retaliations against Israel and the West. Like stopping oil traffic in the Gulf for one.

Cordesman/WSJ/9-25

The Iran Attack Plan, in Wake of News on Qom - WSJ.com

 

[FlanaganReport]

Very difficult.
Iran has had Many years to spread out and harden targets and set up air defenses.
And of course all the possible retaliations against Israel and the West. Like stopping oil traffic in the Gulf for one.

I have serious doubts that Iran would attempt to stop oil traffic in the Gulf. If Israel attacked them, and they chose that response, it would do nothing more than to provoke the US Navy, which is really the last thing they want to do.

A much more likely scenario, should they opt to retaliate in the oil sector, would be so hit Saudi oil fields with Scuds or something similar to that.

 

[Vader]

One thing that the report (surprisingly) fails to mention is the Israeli strike against the Syrian nuclear reactor, which, as far as I can tell, resulted in absolutely no backlash/losses/destablization/etc.

If I were trying to predict how the ME would react to an Israeli strike against a nuclear reactor in an Arab nation, one would think that I would look to the recent Israeli strike against a nuclear reactor in an Arab nation for some clues.

It's quite possible that the strike against Iran would have completely different repercussions, but you'd think that they would at least explain why they concluded it would.

Isreal effectively neutered Assad and his nuclear facility. The Saudis have given Israel permission to use their air space for a strike on Iran. This tells you that the Saudis do not want Iran armed with nuclear weapons any more than anybody else does.

Sure... Iran will throw a fit ... Syria too ... but who cares. The main stream middle east couldn't care less if Iran gets hit. Iran is the biggest threat in the middle east.

 

[FlanaganReport]

Isreal effectively neutered Assad and his nuclear facility. The Saudis have given Israel permission to use their air space for a strike on Iran. This tells you that the Saudis do not want Iran armed with nuclear weapons any more than anybody else does.

Sure... Iran will throw a fit ... Syria too ... but who cares. The main stream middle east couldn't care less if Iran gets hit. Iran is the biggest threat in the middle east.

Syria throwing a fit I could agree is no big deal, but if Iran really wanted to throw a fit, it would a painful experience for the US, and others nations such as Saudi Arabia.

That said, I agree that the Saudis, Egypt as well, are opposed in a big way to a nuclear armed Iran.

 

[American]

Very difficult.
Iran has had Many years to spread out and harden targets and set up air defenses.
And of course all the possible retaliations against Israel and the West. Like stopping oil traffic in the Gulf for one.

Cordesman/WSJ/9-25

The Iran Attack Plan, in Wake of News on Qom - WSJ.com

The Carter Doctrine doesn't allow it.

 

[Vader]

Syria throwing a fit I could agree is no big deal, but if Iran really wanted to throw a fit, it would a painful experience for the US, and others nations such as Saudi Arabia.

That said, I agree that the Saudis, Egypt as well, are opposed in a big way to a nuclear armed Iran.

Indeed... which is why utterly destroying all of Iran's southernmost seaports and military bases would be essential. If the Republican Scumbags have no place to launch attacks from, they will not be able to interfere in the shipping lanes,

Iran needs to be understand that the world will NEVER allow them to have nuclear weapons. If they don't like it, they can suck it.

 

[Red_Dave]

Indeed... which is why utterly destroying all of Iran's southernmost seaports and military bases would be essential. If the Republican Scumbags have no place to launch attacks from, they will not be able to interfere in the shipping lanes

It would also mean that we would lose ten of thousands of opossition supporters both literally and figuratively

 

[creation]

Syria throwing a fit I could agree is no big deal, but if Iran really wanted to throw a fit, it would a painful experience for the US, and others nations such as Saudi Arabia.

That said, I agree that the Saudis, Egypt as well, are opposed in a big way to a nuclear armed Iran.

Probably true. Dont they oppose all nukes in the Middle East? Doubt they oppose nuclear power though, theyll probably want it themselves in time.

 

[Alex Libman]

(Q) What do you do when a country that ranks #76 in economic freedom wants to fight a country that ranks #80?

(A) Give them both nuclear weapons, stand back, and enjoy the show! :mrgreen:


AnCaps love the smell of statist self-destruction in the morning... it smells like... victory!

 

[Apocalypse]

(Q) What do you do when a country that ranks #76 in economic freedom wants to fight a country that ranks #80?

(A) Give them both nuclear weapons, stand back, and enjoy the show! :mrgreen:


AnCaps love the smell of statist self-destruction in the morning... it smells like... victory!

The Index of Economic Freedom places Israel at #42 and Iran at #168 out of 179 competing nations.

You are speaking about the Economic Freedom's ranking, which places Brazil for example in #96, 16 spots after Iran.
This ranking is based on the claim that low taxes and small government are the most important factors to Economic Freedom, rather than efficient rule of law and functioning property rights.

Economic freedom however, is by far not the major factor in determining the comfortably of the residents in the state.
There are much more important factors, such as the HDI status.

 

[Alex Libman]

The Index of Economic Freedom places Israel at #42 and Iran at #168 out of 179 competing nations.

The more Scientologists you have on a literary review board, the more likely will L. Ron Hubbard will end up being called the greatest novelist of all time. (While that distinction should most clearly go to Ayn Rand - tee hee hee, man, even I can't say that with a straight face, but I'm working on it.) Well, the same applies to Jews and Israel.

This ranking is based on the claim that low taxes and small government are the most important factors to Economic Freedom, rather than efficient rule of law and functioning property rights.

Efficient rule of law? Property rights? Israel?! Don't make me laugh. There are some mafia organizations that deserve to rank higher than Israel!

Economic freedom however, is by far not the major factor in determining the comfortably of the residents in the state.

The ~10 million Palestinian people are very comfortable indeed! Mordechai Vanunu raves that Israel is like one big 7-star hotel! The USS Liberty crew just can't stop talking about how great the room service was! The average American tax-payer raves about the value he's getting for his perfectly informed and voluntary investment!

There are much more important factors, such as the HDI status.

HDI is one of the most worthless economic indicators there is! The GDP per capita ranking favors countries with more government spending (which has far less objective value than voluntary private sector spending, but counts the same), as well as suicidal countries with catastrophically low fertility rates. Life expectancy is heavily based on infant mortality, which communist governments have been fudging for decades - the real life expectancy in Cuba is a decade lower than it is on paper! Literacy numbers are fudged as well (with Hong Kong being particularly disadvantaged in that area). Etc.

 

[mbig]

The more Scientologists you have on a literary review board, the more likely will L. Ron Hubbard will end up being called the greatest novelist of all time. (While that distinction should most clearly go to Ayn Rand - tee hee hee, man, even I can't say that with a straight face, but I'm working on it.) Well, the same applies to Jews and Israel.

Clearly that doesn't apply in your case.. and irrelevant to the debate quality presented.
Or Not presented.

Efficient rule of law? Property rights? Israel?! Don't make me laugh. There are some mafia organizations that deserve to rank higher than Israel!

Hidden behind under those words?

Globalresearch.ca, a Conspiracy and anti-semite website.
Zionismexplained' ('anti-zionist' cough)
and 'IsraeliCrimesBlogspot (arabic or english)
No wonder you hid them.

The ~10 million Palestinian people are very comfortable indeed! Mordechai Vanunu raves that Israel is like one big 7-star hotel! The USS Liberty crew just can't stop talking about how great the room service was! The average American tax-payer raves about the value he's getting for his perfectly informed and voluntary investment!

Under those words yet more outrageous Trash.. "whatreallyhappened.com'!!
Is that a Joke?
'IfAmericansknew', an anti-semitic/antizionist site.
And the old Standard I mention just a few weeks ago.. the USS Liberty! CLASSIC.

It's funny:
When you go to a board - you can generally tell who's who by who drags up the Old anti-semite Red Herring/Dead Horse.. 'Liberty'.
-

I've never seen ANYONE throw so many anti-semitic Garbage links and disparate Off Topic Spaghettii-at-the-wall bashing into ONE post.. Ever.
That would include over 100 message boards and a good dozen Arab/Muslim and white supremacist ones.
You only left out Rense, Prisonplanet (familiar?), 'Jewwatch' and a few more.. we await your next.
-

 

[CaptainCourtesy]

Moderator's Warning:

The usage of classically anti-semetic websites to support your argument is a poor choice, and under Martial Law, gets you a lengthy vacation.

 

[Vader]

It would also mean that we would lose ten of thousands of opossition supporters both literally and figuratively

I disagree.

If Iran is hit, those seaports MUST be destroyed or Iran WILL try to interfere in the shipping lanes.

It's a necessity.

P.S. the people in the middle east who want Iran gone ... WILL NOT stop supporting the effort to remove Iran from the world stage.

 

[Vader]

Probably true. Dont they oppose all nukes in the Middle East? Doubt they oppose nuclear power though, theyll probably want it themselves in time.

Only if Iran gets it... and that is why Iran has to be stopped.

 

[Red_Dave]

I disagree.

If Iran is hit, those seaports MUST be destroyed or Iran WILL try to interfere in the shipping lanes.

It's a necessity.

P.S. the people in the middle east who want Iran gone ... WILL NOT stop supporting the effort to remove Iran from the world stage.

Repeating the same point you made last time doenst quite cut it as a refutation

 

[Gardener]

I've never seen ANYONE throw so many anti-semitic Garbage links and disparate Off Topic Spaghettii-at-the-wall bashing into ONE post.. Ever.
That would include over 100 message boards and a good dozen Arab/Muslim and white supremacist ones.
You only left out Rense, Prisonplanet (familiar?), 'Jewwatch' and a few more.. we await your next.
-

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