We're already in WW3

[Rogue Valley]

No matter what happens in Ukraine, the defensive architecture of Europe has changed and will continue to change.

 

[NWRatCon]

Moldova and Georgia are prime targets. I don't think Putin would attack Finland.

None of these are NATO nations.

Exactly. If you don't think he has designs on Finland, you're grossly mistaken. Finland, like Ukraine, represents a successful country on its border. Finland was never part of the Warsaw pact, but did have a treaty with the USSR from 1948 to 1992. The Baltic states will be his first NATO targets.

 

[NWRatCon]

World war 2 had the stakes of industrial genocide and total war. This aint it.

Have you not been watching Ukraine? Chechnya? Syria? That's Putin's methodology. He targets civilians. He destroys cities. The point is terror. Ukraine is just the biggest target so far. It will not be the last, so long as Putin is in power. The biggest problem is, we have no idea who would succeed Putin. It could get worse.

 

[NWRatCon]

No matter what happens in Ukraine, the defensive architecture of Europe has changed and will continue to change.

I completely agree.

I don't like this. I abhor this. I want less military spending, fewer weapons of mass destruction. This is not a world I want to live in. Unfortunately, it is the world we are in.

I do see a possible best-case scenario, and that is the collapse of Putin's government. That might give those other opportunists pause. I can see a wave of democratic sentiment in Russia, and Maidan moments in Hungary and Turkey. I can see a resurgence of democracy. I would welcome it.

 

[Evilroddy]

How to have the best chance to win a war with the Russian Federation and Belarus in Ukraine:

Continue to supply weapons to the Ukrainian forces so that they can attrit the Russian ground and air forces savaging their country for as long as possible.

Continue and ratchet up sanctions and financial seizures on Russia, Putin's oligarchs and entourage, the members of the Duma who voted for this war (all of them) and Mr. Putin himself.

Open NATO borders to refugees and then transport them en masse to North America in order to relieve Europe from being overwhelmed.

Mobilise and rearm military reserves in all NATO countries and plan for mass conscriptions and wider mobilisation if necessary.

Threaten a Western European and North American total boycott on the buying of any Chinese exports if the PRC supports Russia or helps it make an end-run around any financial and trade sanctions.

NATO to move troops, military equipment and military aircraft to Eastern Europe and especially large numbers into Norway. Secretly negotiate either NATO entry for Sweden and Finland or a multilateral Scandinavian co-defence treaty with them. Then with the permission of the Swedes and the Finns declare a no-fly zone over Scandinavia and move in forces to help defend their borders, airspace and sovereignty. Do the same with Moldova if possible.

Encourage Ukrainians aged 15-17 who are fit to fight (young men and women both) to come West in order to be trained and equipped as regular soldiers or the best as highly trained infiltrating special forces when they reach the age of 18 years. Encourage any retreating members of Ukraine's military or Territorial Defence Forces who cannot carry on the fight in Ukraine to make their way west and let them come across frontiers if they agree to be disarmed by NATO forces upon arrival in the West. Then train them to use Western equipment, reequip them and then have them form the cadré of an Ukrainian Army and Air Force in exile under the direction of a Ukrainian Government in Exile and as a partner in NATO.

Immediately offer to return to the original Iran Nuclear Weapons non-proliferation deal and sweeten the pot by letting Iran spite Saudi Arabia by selling as much oil and gas as it can to the world. Help Venezuela through third-party countries get its oil and gas production back on its feet. Break the OPEC cartel if it does not allow increased gas and crude oil production among its member states.

Now, more secure behind fortified frontiers, with a large retrained and reequipped Ukrainian Army in exile chaffing at the bit, wait for sanctions to bite deeper to the quick and unleash a gradually widening cyber warfare campaign on the Russian Federation and Belarus in order to hamper them in war and inflict much higher financial costs on them. Warn Russia that any attack on NATO or any NATO-protected states will be met with total war up to and including Nuclear weapon use. Warn Russia to withdraw its navies and forces abroad to naval bases abroad or its own territorial waters or risk that they will be deemed legitimate targets at some point in the near future but set no clear date.

Under the pretext that the sitting Russian president is a threat to global peace and all life, put a ten-billion dollar bounty on Vladimir Putin's head and complete amnesty for those who plan and execute a successful assassination of Mr. Putin. Likewise a two-billion dollar bounty on President Lukanhesko for aiding and abetting an enemy of life.

As Russia is weakened over a year or more in the continuing battles or a guerrilla insurgency in Ukraine, prepare for a deliberate and well-planned, overwhelming conventional counterattack into Ukraine only but allowing for the suppression of artillery and air power in hostile regions surrounding Ukraine. Then counterattack to retake the country led by the Ukrainian Army in Exile and supported by NATO ground and air forces. This attack will be shielded by the threat to use nuclear weapons on any state which opposes the counterattack with NBC WMDs. While this happens in Ukraine hunt down and destroy every Russian military surface vessel and submarine outside of Russian bases or territorial waters in an accelerating attack.

Take back Ukraine and return the Ukrainian Government in Exile and its Army in Exile to control what's left of this war ravaged country. Create a new Marshall Plan in order to rebuild Ukraine. Make that Marshall Plan contingent on Ukraine forestalling joining NATO for 25 years but make sure that the Russian Federation knows that NATO will defend Ukraine if Russia atracks it during that 25-year period.

Continued next post.

 

[Evilroddy]

If the Russian Federation and Belarus surrenders or changes their governments for a more positive one which will respect Ukrainian sovreignity and negotiate peacefully while turning over leaders and politicians who brought about the war for international trial, then begin ending the sanctions incrementally to reward cooperation with what follows the war. Appoint some mutually trusted countries and organisations to mediate bilateral talks between the Russian Federation and Ukraine involving territorial swaps and money compensations to allow new frontiers to reflect a compromise which both sides can live with. If the Russian Federation agrees to talk in good faith with Ukraine, comes to a settlement and agrees to reduce nuclear inventories to far lower levels along with the USA (50% or more reductions) then lower sanctions more. If the Russians agree to substantial and verifiable nuclear and missile reductions then negotiate removing the ABM missile bases in Eastern Europe in return for more nuclear reductions and possibly conventional military reductions too. If all these preconditions are met, then extend that Marshal Plan to any parts of the Russian Federation and Belarus which were destroyed during the fighting to retake Ukraine. Have Europe, America, China and NATO countries pay for this Marshall Plan as well as Belarus and the Russian Federation through war reparations. Also negotiate a mutual drawing-down of conventional armed forces between Russia and the USA forces in Europe, if possible.

That's my plan. Pick it to pieces now, but only if you can offer better suggestions.

Cheers, be well and "F*** War!".
Evilroddy.

 

[NWRatCon]

The entire population of Russia is 1/5th that of the combined EU, United States and Canada (and shrinking). It has the 4th largest military (and shrinking), but the 11th largest economy (and shrinking). Russia cannot swallow the population or territory of Ukraine, which is 1/3 of its size, alone. But, it can destroy much of it, and intends to.

 

[NWRatCon]

If the Russian Federation and Belarus surrenders or changes its government for a more positive one which will respect Ukrainian sovreignity and negotiate peacefully while turning over leaders and politicians who brought about the war, then begin ending the sanctions incrementally to reward cooperation with what follows the war. Appoint some mutually trusted countries and organisations to mediate bilateral talks between the Russian Federation and Ukraine involving territorial swaps and money compensations to allow new frontiers to reflect a compromise which both sides can live with. If the Russian Federation agrees to talk in good faith with Ukraine, comes to a settlement and agrees to reduce nuclear inventories to far lower levels along with the USA (50% or more reductions) and if the Russians agree to substantial and verifiable nuclear and missile reductions then negotiate removing the ABM missile bases in Eastern Europe. If all these preconditions are met, then extend that Marshal Plan to any parts of the Russian Federation and Belarus which were destroyed during the fighting to retake Ukraine. Have Europe, America, China and NATO countries pay for this Marshall Plan as well as Belarus and the Russian Federation through war reparations. Also negotiate a mutual drawing-down of conventional armed forces between Russia and the USA forces in Europe, if possible.

That's my plan. Pick it to pieces now, but only if you can offer better suggestions.

Cheers, be well and "F*** War!".
Evilroddy.

In general, I agree with your entire program, although I would quibble about threatening nuclear conflagration or putting a bounty on heads of state. I think bounties for the surrender of Russian naval/military equipment (a la Red October), however, would be effective. $10,000 per tank/artillery piece, $50,000-100,000 per plane, millions per ship. (It would probably have to be tied to some kind of immigration status.)

 

[NWRatCon]

Running some numbers... Russia has/had 12,000 tanks/mechanized fighting systems; 4100 fighting aircraft; 605 capital ships, per GLOBAL FIREPOWER.com ("War does not determine who is right - only who is left." - Bertrand Russell) The world should budget accordingly.

 

[Checkerboard Strangler]

Why would he" engineer a nuclear disaster " on the country with 1200 mile land border with his own nation?

Messianic personalities tend to have clouded judgment.

 

[Evilroddy]

And while we are talking about security alliances, Belerus has allowed itself to be a part of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Belarus is member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) - Russia, Belarus, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan.

I wonder why Antony Blinken never mentions this?

Rogue Valley:

Perhaps to give Azerbaijan, Armenia and the 'Stans' wiggle room to abrogate their treaty responsibilities to a Russian Federation and a Belarus which entered into a reckless war of choice? I am pretty sure that Central Asia is quite worried about the loose cannons shooting off invasions and nuclear threats in the west are doing.

Cheers and be well.
Evilroddy.

 

[Checkerboard Strangler]

It appears I'm not alone. The Impossible Suddenly Became Possible (Ann Applebaum, Atlantic). "When Russia invaded Ukraine, the West’s assumptions about the world became unsustainable."

Reverse EVERY SINGLE ASPECT of Brexit NOW, United Kingdom I am talking to YOU.
Europe: LET THEM do that.
The time for a fully united Europe is NOW.
USA: This has been brewing since before Obama even considered running for the presidency, it's documented and acknowledged.
Get your heads out of your asses, shut off the Putin PR machine and understand the importance of preserving democracy, what's left of it, or learn to love the yoke of authoritarianism Russian style.

 

[Checkerboard Strangler]

The above is a supposition on your part that I strongly disagree with.

The onlly way NATO will get involved in warfare is if Putin attacks a NATO member.

That's coming.

 

[Checkerboard Strangler]

I completely agree.

I don't like this. I abhor this. I want less military spending, fewer weapons of mass destruction. This is not a world I want to live in. Unfortunately, it is the world we are in.

I do see a possible best-case scenario, and that is the collapse of Putin's government. That might give those other opportunists pause. I can see a wave of democratic sentiment in Russia, and Maidan moments in Hungary and Turkey. I can see a resurgence of democracy. I would welcome it.

Lord God, a resurgence of democratic sentiments is exactly what we have needed for the past forty ****ing years, especially here as well as elsewhere.
And I mean DEMOCRATIC, not "neo-liberal or neo-conservative" notions of "democratic"...actual representative democracies, in actual constitutional republics.
No gerrymandering, no super delegates, no legalized bribery a la Citizens United, no partisan poll watching.

"Don't it always seem to go, that you don't know what you've got till it's gone."

 

[oneworld2]

I am always amazed at how so thoroughly a point can be missed.

Yes, I was less articulate than I could have been (a lack of sleep), but the central point was not really about what particular "response" would be "appropriate", but acknowledgement of the reality we are already in.

When NATO gets involved in Ukraine, and it will, that is a major muscle movement - I'll acknowledge that up front. It will expand far beyond whatever we intend - just as it has already.

And it is broader than I even outlined. This is existential stuff, people. We're not just talking about Europe, or Ukraine. We're reliving WWII, almost explicitly. I've written about this before. And we're making the same mistakes.

In the 1930s, we watched as Hitler reconstituted the German war machine, and did nothing. We knew his ambitions, he repeated it incessantly, but we ignored it. When he saber-rattled, we sought appeasement, somehow believing he'd be content with the Sudetenland. Instead, it emboldened him. He believed, correctly, that the West would not stop his further moves. We ignored Italy's practice war in Ethiopia, again believing it "didn't involve us" because, well, those were primitive people in a faraway land (read, Africans). Does this not sound incredibly familiar?

I'm not advocating for expansion. I'm not advocating saber-rattling. Yes, Putin has more ferocious weapons than Europe faced in WWII (or so it thought). But his playbook is the same. And, he is not alone. He has the same motivations, the same lack of a moral compass, and the same ruthlessness. I'm not sanguine about this, I'm terrified.

China will see the West's involvement in war with Russia as an opportunity. North Korea and Iran will see opportunity. They all have the same ambitions and the same structure - autocracy, and territorial expansion. This is the same fight and the same stakes that WWII was fought over. It is not just Ukraine. It is Taiwan. It is the entire Korean peninsula. It is Syria, Turkey, Iraq and Egypt. Again, does this not sound familiar?

What I am saying is, we need to prepare for that, and expect that, and realize this is going to get much, much, much worse, whether or not it ever gets better. We're just ignoring reality and that never ends well.

Everything you said that I responded to was not based on logic.

To you there is no way back, there's no chance of a none military solution/outcome and the finger is always aimed at the Russians.

I will play your Hitler tape back to you from another perspective

After the Cold War, the Warsaw Pact, which was formed as a understandable response to the joining of Germany to NATO, was dissolved but NATO was not

In the negotiations on German reunification the Russians were told that there would be no eastward expansion of NATO. They lied

In 1999 the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland joined NATO. The Russians did nothing

In 2004 Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Bulgaria, Estonia joined NATO. The Russians did nothing

In 2008 Bucharest Summit Ukraine and Georgia were told that at some point in the future they would be full members of NATO.The Russians complained and Georgia attack ethnic Russians living in Georgia, Russia responded and occupied the area inhabited by those ethnic Russians

A year later, Croatia and Albania joined NATO, The Russians did nothing.

In 2019 Montenegro joined NATO. The Russians did nothing

In 2020 Northern Macedonia joined NATO. The Russians did nothing.

In February 2014 a US backed coup overthrew the elected government. The Russians occupied and annexed Crimea to hold on to their naval base. Seperatists opposed to the dictates of the new western backed government and engaged in an armed struggle with the Ukrainian army. They had Russian military support and the war has raged ever since

In March 2021 Zelensky declared that he was starting the ball rolling to attack and retake Crimea. A defacto declaration of war with Russia. Later that year arms were flooding in to Ukraine from the West.

In February this year Russia decided to put its plan to invade Ukraine into practice, after talks with NATO in January had failed to recognize Russian concerns over the threat NATO in Ukraine posed to their national security.

Does that sound like a country that is itching for war or wishes to recapture eastern Europe? I would argue that the eastward expansion of NATO is more akin to a Hitleresque mission creep and that the Russian response to it has been remarkable placid until now

 

[oneworld2]

That's coming.

It needn't

 

[Checkerboard Strangler]

It needn't

"You don't have to do this"



Quick, which one is Russia, Anton Chigurh or Carson?

 

[NWRatCon]

Rogue Valley:

Perhaps to give Azerbaijan, Armenia and the 'Stans' wiggle room to abrogate their treaty responsibilities to a Russian Federation and a Belarus which entered into a reckless war of choice? I am pretty sure that Central Asia is quite worried about the loose cannons shooting off invasions and nuclear threats in the west are doing.

Cheers and be well.
Evilroddy.

The CSTO is a defensive arrangement. Neither Russia nor Belarus is under attack. None of the other members of CSTO have significant firepower, and certainly not offensive capabilities. Look here. They are included in the alliance to give Russia places to stage from.

 

[bomberfox]

Have you not been watching Ukraine? Chechnya? Syria? That's Putin's methodology. He targets civilians. He destroys cities. The point is terror. Ukraine is just the biggest target so far. It will not be the last, so long as Putin is in power. The biggest problem is, we have no idea who would succeed Putin. It could get worse.

Ive seen it, really i have however if Putin were to go on a total war setting Ukraine would be desolate by now. Most wars involve destruction of cities when the target has major urban centers. We do not currently see the total war or industrial genocide which defined WW2, if Putin does not escalate much more than he has that would be to our benefit.

The major worry is Putin’s willingness to shell nuclear power plants which is ****ing wreckless as all hell.

 

[bomberfox]

Secondly Russian troops are showing reluctance to attack and puncturing some of their own fuel tanks. Not to mention Putin is including barely trained soldiers as the shock troops to invade.

 

[NWRatCon]

It needn't

All we need to do is capitulate to Putin. We all know, your tape is on a loop.

 

[oneworld2]

"You don't have to do this"



Quick, which one is Russia, Anton Chigurh or Carson?

We don't have to do this and we shouldn't do this. Dialogue now or potential extinction later ? Do we really need to dilly and dally on this?

 

[Checkerboard Strangler]

We don't have to do this and we shouldn't do this. Dialogue now or potential extinction later ? Do we really need to dilly and dally on this?

You and I don't really have much say in the matter...I'm just pointing out the futility of saying "We don't have to do this".
Of ****ing COURSE we don't have to, but it's coming.

"All the time you spend tryin to get back what's been took from you there's more goin out the door.
After a while you just try and get a tourniquet on it."

 

[oneworld2]

All we need to do is capitulate to Putin. We all know, your tape is on a loop.

Why is averting disaster capitulating to Putin?

The Russians have watched NATO creep right up to its border and arm a country who it is at war with. Legitimate Russian national security concerns have not been taken seriously, what would you have done if the greatest military power in history had you in its sights and was on your doorstep ?

 

[Cordelier]

Why is averting disaster capitulating to Putin?

The Russians have watched NATO creep right up to its border and arm a country who it is at war with. Legitimate Russian national security concerns have not been taken seriously, what would you have done if the greatest military power in history had you in its sights and was on your doorstep ?

All of the Eastern European countries that joined NATO in the wake of the Cold War.... are you somehow suggesting that Russia should have had a veto over their decision-making?