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The West needs to think through its endgame in Ukraine (Opinion, NYT)
"The United States and Europe are rightly backing Ukraine in its courageous defense against Russia’s invasion. But as the facts on the ground shift by the day, the West needs to think hard about its endgame: Is it Russian defeat or victory for Ukraine?"
"If its progress can be halted, Russia will be unable to force Ukraine to comply with its demands, thereby preserving Ukraine’s freedom. That’s what Russia’s defeat means.
But that’s only the start of matters. If its advance is halted, Russia will still occupy much newly seized Ukrainian territory, especially in the country’s south along the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea. It will also still possess Crimea and control the breakaway regions of Donetsk and Luhansk. Understandably, Ukraine is not going to settle for that. President Volodymyr Zelensky will want to retake Ukrainian territory and restore the borders promised to it in the 1994 Budapest Memorandum.
So that’s what Ukrainian victory means. And for the West, backing that effort would require much different levels and types of military support."
"The United States and Europe are rightly backing Ukraine in its courageous defense against Russia’s invasion. But as the facts on the ground shift by the day, the West needs to think hard about its endgame: Is it Russian defeat or victory for Ukraine?"
"If its progress can be halted, Russia will be unable to force Ukraine to comply with its demands, thereby preserving Ukraine’s freedom. That’s what Russia’s defeat means.
But that’s only the start of matters. If its advance is halted, Russia will still occupy much newly seized Ukrainian territory, especially in the country’s south along the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea. It will also still possess Crimea and control the breakaway regions of Donetsk and Luhansk. Understandably, Ukraine is not going to settle for that. President Volodymyr Zelensky will want to retake Ukrainian territory and restore the borders promised to it in the 1994 Budapest Memorandum.
So that’s what Ukrainian victory means. And for the West, backing that effort would require much different levels and types of military support."