It is 9:42 PM Pacific Time.
As I write this I wonder what the news from Ukraine (or about Ukraine) will be tomorrow morning. I am sensing that some very serious developments are near, and that in the next few mornings the taking Lyman will be accomplished. What will follow is unknown, but the 10s of thousands of newly conscripted are arriving and while I still believe they can halt Ukraine's offensive gains between now and the end of October, I also believe their slaughter will be inevitable.
Indeed, Russia sent in close to 200,000 troops, from which it lost approximately 40 to 50 percent. This army included conscripts who had completed training but the strong majority were professionals, many with experience in Syria, Chechnya, and and other conflicts.
Today the standing professional Army of Russia is half or less of what it was. Entire Russian "armies" have been destroyed, and their carnage continues. This mob of prior and older conscripts, without any refresher training, and raw conscripts and impressed civilians, will suffer much worse.
The 18 Himars will, I believe, be just the beginning of a new awakening to the the reality that this has never been a limited war in the mind of Putin, it has always been a proxy war since (or before) he invaded Georgia and then Crimea and NATO is his true enemy, not just Ukraine.
There is no off ramp because regardless of what the West does or does not do, Ukraine will never give up the fight. And hopefully neither will we.
We do not know if this will end with a collapse of the Russian army, a coup, or a nuclear event. All that can be said is that Russia will pay even more dearly for their quest for empire and enslavement, and that if eventually the west is willing to setup, train, and provide tanks, western aircraft, and more heavy weapons the Ukrainians can and will wipe the map clean of their enemy.
Till then, the Russians haven't seen anything yet.