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[W:119]AZ Senate likely to go Democrat

Lutherf

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AZ Secretary of State now shows McSally down by over 2,000 votes.

Yesterday McSally was ahead by 17,000 votes but 600,000 provisional and early ballots were sitting there uncounted (half were dropped off on Tuesday). In a shocking (not really) turn of events all those mail in ballots and provisional ballots trended more heavily to Sinema than McSally.

I'm trying to think of an election where all those leftover ballots trended Republican but I can't think of any.

-edit-

Sorry, forgot the link - https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/4/0

Keep in mind that the linked page will update on occasion so when you look the results might show different than what I have above.
 
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Winston

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Re: AZ Senate likely to go Democrat

AZ Secretary of State now shows McSally down by over 2,000 votes.

Yesterday McSally was ahead by 17,000 votes but 600,000 provisional and early ballots were sitting there uncounted (half were dropped off on Tuesday). In a shocking (not really) turn of events all those mail in ballots and provisional ballots trended more heavily to Sinema than McSally.

I'm trying to think of an election where all those leftover ballots trended Republican but I can't think of any.

I can't even think of an election that was reversed later on. That was crazy close, eh?
 

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Re: AZ Senate likely to go Democrat

AZ Secretary of State now shows McSally down by over 2,000 votes.

Yesterday McSally was ahead by 17,000 votes but 600,000 provisional and early ballots were sitting there uncounted (half were dropped off on Tuesday). In a shocking (not really) turn of events all those mail in ballots and provisional ballots trended more heavily to Sinema than McSally.

I'm trying to think of an election where all those leftover ballots trended Republican but I can't think of any.

-edit-

Sorry, forgot the link - https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/4/0

Keep in mind that the linked page will update on occasion so when you look the results might show different than what I have above.

In states that have more military ballots than provisionals, those tend to go Republican. Provisionals go overwhelmingly Democratic basically everywhere though.
 

Lutherf

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Re: AZ Senate likely to go Democrat

I can't even think of an election that was reversed later on. That was crazy close, eh?

I don't think the counting is done but it's remarkable how all these "spare" ballots trend differently than the ones cast at the polls or sent in early do.

I haven't seen figures by precinct or by county yet but in prior elections I've seen Pima county "spare" ballots trend 80% Democrat when in every other county the trend has been pretty much in line with "regular" votes.
 

Winchester

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Re: AZ Senate likely to go Democrat

So the provisional ballots were 309,500 dem vs 290,500 rep... doesn't seem that out of line given the younger and disenfranchised crowd are more likely to do provisional ballots.
 

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Re: AZ Senate likely to go Democrat

I don't think the counting is done but it's remarkable how all these "spare" ballots trend differently than the ones cast at the polls or sent in early do.

I haven't seen figures by precinct or by county yet but in prior elections I've seen Pima county "spare" ballots trend 80% Democrat when in every other county the trend has been pretty much in line with "regular" votes.

Yep...that's how it works. If the election's close and the Repub's ahead, "suddenly" lots of uncounted ballots discovered the next day or two to give the Dem the win; happened in Washington State Gov Race years ago, happens now. And if that won't work, as Norm Coleman found out, they get out magnifying glasses and ultraviolet readers looking for a manual recount, finding those stray marks and "intentions" behind a ballot that couldn't be seen by a neutral and non-partisan counting machine.

If the pub's have a lick of sense, they'll demand a hand recount and full audit of these "provisional" ballots.
 

Tanngrisnir

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Re: AZ Senate likely to go Democrat

AZ Secretary of State now shows McSally down by over 2,000 votes.

Yesterday McSally was ahead by 17,000 votes but 600,000 provisional and early ballots were sitting there uncounted (half were dropped off on Tuesday). In a shocking (not really) turn of events all those mail in ballots and provisional ballots trended more heavily to Sinema than McSally.

I'm trying to think of an election where all those leftover ballots trended Republican but I can't think of any.

-edit-

Sorry, forgot the link - https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/4/0

Keep in mind that the linked page will update on occasion so when you look the results might show different than what I have above.

Coupled with the news that Nelson is still in the running in FL, this is rather late good news for Dems.
 

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Re: AZ Senate likely to go Democrat

Yep...that's how it works. If the election's close and the Repub's ahead, "suddenly" lots of uncounted ballots discovered the next day or two to give the Dem the win; happened in Washington State Gov Race years ago, happens now. And if that won't work, as Norm Coleman found out, they get out magnifying glasses and ultraviolet readers looking for a manual recount, finding those stray marks and "intentions" behind a ballot that couldn't be seen by a neutral and non-partisan counting machine.

If the pub's have a lick of sense, they'll demand a hand recount and full audit of these "provisional" ballots.

It happened here in the 1994 Gubernatorial election but on election night. The heavy Dem counties all came in last after the GOP candidate looked to be on the way to winning and the amount needed to overtake her was known. I'm wondering how they'll erase Rick Scott's 17,000 vote lead, too
 

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Re: AZ Senate likely to go Democrat

I don't think the counting is done but it's remarkable how all these "spare" ballots trend differently than the ones cast at the polls or sent in early do.

I haven't seen figures by precinct or by county yet but in prior elections I've seen Pima county "spare" ballots trend 80% Democrat when in every other county the trend has been pretty much in line with "regular" votes.

I don't know if that's true, at least this in this election. No idea about other Arizona elections. Pinal, Mojave, Yavapai, and Yuma's ballots counted today also came in more Democratic than their countywide margin.

I think it's often just the people more likely to cast a provisional ballot or turn a ballot in later tend to be more Democratic.
 

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Re: AZ Senate likely to go Democrat

I can't even think of an election that was reversed later on. That was crazy close, eh?

Al Franken was losing...until the "car trunk box of ballots" showed up....
 

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Re: AZ Senate likely to go Democrat

AZ Secretary of State now shows McSally down by over 2,000 votes.

Yesterday McSally was ahead by 17,000 votes but 600,000 provisional and early ballots were sitting there uncounted (half were dropped off on Tuesday). In a shocking (not really) turn of events all those mail in ballots and provisional ballots trended more heavily to Sinema than McSally.

I'm trying to think of an election where all those leftover ballots trended Republican but I can't think of any.

-edit-

Sorry, forgot the link - https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/4/0

Keep in mind that the linked page will update on occasion so when you look the results might show different than what I have above.

Sort of how Al Franken and several other Democrats got elected. Just enough mysterious votes magically appear.
 

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Re: AZ Senate likely to go Democrat

Coupled with the news that Nelson is still in the running in FL, this is rather late good news for Dems.

I am inclined to think Nelson won't make it across the finish line. But Sinema will I think.
 

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Re: AZ Senate likely to go Democrat

It happened here in the 1994 Gubernatorial election but on election night. The heavy Dem counties all came in last after the GOP candidate looked to be on the way to winning and the amount needed to overtake her was known. I'm wondering how they'll erase Rick Scott's 17,000 vote lead, too

In Washington, after all the tallying, they "discovered" an uncounted box - most likely brought in by a guy named Guido who "found it" in the men's room at Democratic Election Headquarters.
 

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Re: AZ Senate likely to go Democrat

Just because your dead doesn't mean you can't cast a provisional ballet for the Democratic Party candidate. And that vote should be counted.
 

jnug

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Re: AZ Senate likely to go Democrat

In Washington, after all the tallying, they "discovered" an uncounted box - most likely brought in by a guy named Guido who "found it" in the men's room at Democratic Election Headquarters.

Oh OK...lets totally discount that Dems generally live in districts with higher population density which often brings their vote tallies in from Counties later...lets just ignore that completely.
 

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Re: AZ Senate likely to go Democrat

I am inclined to think Nelson won't make it across the finish line. But Sinema will I think.

There's been some very odd/shady discoveries to day of at least 25,000 uncounted ballots where Nelson is only down, at last count, by 21,000 and they're from a dem area.

That, and there's a runoff election on the 27th in MS, as well.
 

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Re: AZ Senate likely to go Democrat

Democrats have no ethics, that’s why republicans need to win by margins, because if it’s close then ineligible democrat voters who vote provisional can take it over.
 

EMNofSeattle

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Re: AZ Senate likely to go Democrat

There's been some very odd/shady discoveries to day of at least 25,000 uncounted ballots where Nelson is only down, at last count, by 21,000 and they're from a dem area.

That, and there's a runoff election on the 27th in MS, as well.

Oh just happened to discover Nelson ballots today? Very shady I agree
 

Lutherf

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Re: AZ Senate likely to go Democrat

Sort of how Al Franken and several other Democrats got elected. Just enough mysterious votes magically appear.

I don't think these are "trunk votes" like Franken had. I do think it's at least partially due to "vote harvesting". I've run into Democrat organizations "helping" people fill out ballots at dementia care facilities, nursing homes and the like. Basically they hit up people that are probably incapable of making an informed decision, help them fill out the ballot and then promise it will get filed. Some of the people getting helped still think they're voting for FDR.
 

EMNofSeattle

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Re: AZ Senate likely to go Democrat

In Washington, after all the tallying, they "discovered" an uncounted box - most likely brought in by a guy named Guido who "found it" in the men's room at Democratic Election Headquarters.

Yeah they just started finding mail trays full of absentee ballots that favored the democrats after Rossi won both the first and recount
 

Eriech

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Re: AZ Senate likely to go Democrat

With McCain and Flake gone "going Democrat" is a difference without a distinction.

A wall between California and Arizona is probably too late.

It will be a missed opportunity should McSally lose but not a net loss, IMO.

Sent from my SM-G892A using Tapatalk
 

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Re: AZ Senate likely to go Democrat

Oh just happened to discover Nelson ballots today? Very shady I agree

No. Please try and slow down and read just a bit better.

25,000 ballots were discovered, not 25,000 Nelson ballots. They are as of yet uncounted.
 

EMNofSeattle

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Re: AZ Senate likely to go Democrat

With McCain and Flake gone "going Democrat" is a difference without a distinction.

A wall between California and Arizona is probably too late.

It will be a missed opportunity should McSally lose but not a net loss, IMO.

Sent from my SM-G892A using Tapatalk

We need to get republicans living in lost cause states to start migrating to swing states. I’m debating whether I should move to Florida or Michigan?
 
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