Trump Has Edge Over Biden In AZ, FL, GA: Polls

[Rexedgar]

Every 30 seconds a Latino becomes eligible to vote while 2 old white people die. Arizona is turning purple.

Yeah, but the old ”white people” are likely to be Canadian!

 

[poweRob]

Every 30 seconds a Latino becomes eligible to vote while 2 old white people die. Arizona is turning purple.

And at the same time 30 mellenials move to AZ who don't give a damn about voting.

 

[Anagram]

You seem completely oblivious as to what happened four years ago. And what swing state polling indicated at the end of September 2016.

MSNBC was convinced Clinton would win both Texas and Georgia.

Several polls showed Clinton up by double digits in Pennsylvania.

The only swing state I can find where Trump was performing better four years ago is Ohio, but there hasn’t been an excessive amount of polling done.

I don't know why MSNBC would have been convinced of that considering Hillary did not lead a single poll in Texas or Georgia from September 1, 2016 forward.

In 2016, Trump led all 13 polls of Texas (September-November) by at least 3% and by an average of 7%. Not one single poll has shown Trump up by 7% this time around in Texas.

In 2016, Trump led 23/24 polls of Georgia (with Quinnipiac in one poll showing a tie) by an average of 4%. Only two polls have shown Trump up by at least 4% over the last six months.

Trump is performing worse in the polls at this point in almost every swing state on average than he was in 2016. In fact, comparing September 25 of both years I cannot find a single swing state where Trump was on average polling better this year than in 2016. Obviously this will change in October. Hillary got a huge bump in polling that quickly faded after the Access Hollywood tape came out so come October I expect Trump to be polling better in almost every state than 2016 at the same point. But that was a bump that quickly faded so if things stay as they are, Biden will also be polling better than Hillary was by late October. (Obviously no guarantees of that though. There's still a month plus of things to happen).

But based on polling, I would rather be Biden than Trump, even if you expect the same polling error as 2016 in each state.

 

[ReubenSherr]

I don't know why MSNBC would have been convinced of that considering Hillary did not lead a single poll in Texas or Georgia from September 1, 2016 forward.

In 2016, Trump led all 13 polls of Texas (September-November) by at least 3% and by an average of 7%. Not one single poll has shown Trump up by 7% this time around in Texas.

In 2016, Trump led 23/24 polls of Georgia (with Quinnipiac in one poll showing a tie) by an average of 4%. Only two polls have shown Trump up by at least 4% over the last six months.

Trump is performing worse in the polls at this point in almost every swing state on average than he was in 2016. In fact, comparing September 25 of both years I cannot find a single swing state where Trump was on average polling better this year than in 2016. Obviously this will change in October. Hillary got a huge bump in polling that quickly faded after the Access Hollywood tape came out so come October I expect Trump to be polling better in almost every state than 2016 at the same point. But that was a bump that quickly faded so if things stay as they are, Biden will also be polling better than Hillary was by late October. (Obviously no guarantees of that though. There's still a month plus of things to happen).

But based on polling, I would rather be Biden than Trump, even if you expect the same polling error as 2016 in each state.

I’m on board with most of this, except that Trump is polling better this time around in Pennsylvania than he was in 2016, this is being misrepresented by liberal media. Polls had Hillary up 10 and 12 points in PA at the end of September.

Hillary got a large polling bounce, nationally, in October, up to a 7.1 RCP lead, and it wasn’t necessarily pro-Hillary as it was anti-Trump. And Trump recovered easily.

Which indicates that Trump can just as easily recover from this policing deficit, if it is accurate and real.

I don’t see the purpose in comparing Sept 25 to Sept 25, it has very little meaning. The events which occurred in the 2016 season do not match dates with current events.

 

[Anagram]

I’m on board with most of this, except that Trump is polling better this time around in Pennsylvania than he was in 2016, this is being misrepresented by liberal media. Polls had Hillary up 10 and 12 points in PA at the end of September.

Hillary got a large polling bounce, nationally, in October, up to a 7.1 RCP lead, and it wasn’t necessarily pro-Hillary as it was anti-Trump. And Trump recovered easily.

Which indicates that Trump can just as easily recover from this policing deficit, if it is accurate and real.

I don’t see the purpose in comparing Sept 25 to Sept 25, it has very little meaning. The events which occurred in the 2016 season do not match dates with current events.

I agree that specific date matching is not helpful. I was trying to illustrate that by pointing out that because of the Access Hollywood bump Hillary got in 2016, Trump will almost assuredly be doing better than he was in 2016 in most swing states come early-mid October. But that does not reflect that he will necessarily be in a better position this time around because there will likely not be a corresponding event artificially inflating Biden's averages as they did Hillary's in October.

I was just pointing out Trump is doing worse in every swing state than he was on this date in 2016 because you seemed to be saying he was doing better in every state besides Ohio, which is not accurate.

 

[ReubenSherr]

I agree that specific date matching is not helpful. I was trying to illustrate that by pointing out that because of the Access Hollywood bump Hillary got in 2016, Trump will almost assuredly be doing better than he was in 2016 in most swing states come early-mid October. But that does not reflect that he will necessarily be in a better position this time around because there will likely not be a corresponding event artificially inflating Biden's averages as they did Hillary's in October.

I was just pointing out Trump is doing worse in every swing state than he was on this date in 2016 because you seemed to be saying he was doing better in every state besides Ohio, which is not accurate.

Trump is doing better in Pennsylvania than he was around this date in 2016.

The only swing state where Trump is clearly doing worse, compared to 2016, is Ohio.

 

[Perotista]

Trump with the edge over Biden in Arizona, Florida and Georgia battlegrounds: polls

New polls in three crucial general election battleground states show President Trump holding the edge over Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden.

www.foxnews.com

"New polls in three crucial general election battleground states show President Trump holding the edge over Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden.

The president tops Biden 51%-47% among likely voters in Florida and Trump holds a 1-point 49%-48% edge over the former vice president among likely voters in Arizona, according to ABC News/Washington Post public opinion surveys released on Wednesday.

The president’s ahead of his Democratic challenger 48%-46% among likely voters in Georgia, according to a high voter turnout model in a Monmouth University survey that was also released on Wednesday."

All recent polls, not just on, RCP averages

Florida

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Florida: Trump vs. Biden

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Florida: Trump vs. Biden

www.realclearpolitics.com

Arizona

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Arizona: Trump vs. Biden

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Arizona: Trump vs. Biden

www.realclearpolitics.com

Georgia

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Georgia: Trump vs. Biden

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Georgia: Trump vs. Biden

www.realclearpolitics.com

I like the averaging of all recent polls as I think that gives us a more accurate reflection as to what is happening to day. Your ABC Arizona poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 points. Which simply means Trump may be trailing by 3.5 points or ahead by 5.5 or it is somewhere in-between. Hence averaging bring that margin of error down to a more meaningful number.

Your ABC poll on Florida ending 20 Sep gives Trump a 4 point lead, but another poll ending the same day give Biden a 3 point lead. Both have a margin of error of 4.5 points. There's a more recent poll there ending on the 22nd, a new poll which also has Biden up by 3. But with a margin of error of just 1,8 points. Meaning the most recent poll is showing Biden leading between 1.2 point to 4.8 points. Still, I like the average of all recent polls.

Your Monmouth poll does have Trump up by 2 in Georgia, but with a huge 4.9 margin of error. again meaning Trump could be ahead as much as 6.9 points or behind by 2.9. Regardless, everyone expected Florida to be as close as it can get. But Trump having problems in Arizona and Georgia, that isn't good news as Trump should be leading by much larger numbers in traditional red reliable states.

 

[ReubenSherr]

All recent polls, not just on, RCP averages

Florida

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Florida: Trump vs. Biden

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Florida: Trump vs. Biden

www.realclearpolitics.com

Arizona

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Arizona: Trump vs. Biden

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Arizona: Trump vs. Biden

www.realclearpolitics.com

Georgia

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Georgia: Trump vs. Biden

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Georgia: Trump vs. Biden

www.realclearpolitics.com

I like the averaging of all recent polls as I think that gives us a more accurate reflection as to what is happening to day. Your ABC Arizona poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 points. Which simply means Trump may be trailing by 3.5 points or ahead by 5.5 or it is somewhere in-between. Hence averaging bring that margin of error down to a more meaningful number.

Your ABC poll on Florida ending 20 Sep gives Trump a 4 point lead, but another poll ending the same day give Biden a 3 point lead. Both have a margin of error of 4.5 points. There's a more recent poll there ending on the 22nd, a new poll which also has Biden up by 3. But with a margin of error of just 1,8 points. Meaning the most recent poll is showing Biden leading between 1.2 point to 4.8 points. Still, I like the average of all recent polls.

Your Monmouth poll does have Trump up by 2 in Georgia, but with a huge 4.9 margin of error. again meaning Trump could be ahead as much as 6.9 points or behind by 2.9. Regardless, everyone expected Florida to be as close as it can get. But Trump having problems in Arizona and Georgia, that isn't good news as Trump should be leading by much larger numbers in traditional red reliable states.

You all need to read the thread title lol.

The last word in the title is “Polls.”

Meaning these two polls, referenced in the Fox article.

Conservatives literally have to put up with this nearly every day. Liberals starting thread after thread based on one poll.

And now, when a single, reliable poll shows good news for Trump, liberals seem to be freaking out.

 

[poweRob]

Trump is doing better in Pennsylvania than he was around this date in 2016.

The only swing state where Trump is clearly doing worse, compared to 2016, is Ohio.

2016 RCP average in Pennsyvlania Clinton +2.6
Final result Trump +0.7

2020 RCP average in Pennsylvania Biden +4.3

To your point... Trump is doing better this time around. He's at 44.5 when at this point in 2016 he was at 43. Biden is also doing better than Hillary in 2016.

2016 Hillary at this point was 45.4
2020 Biden at this point - 48.8

There are less undecideds so both are doing better. The dem is doing more betterer with Trump doing 1.5 points better and the dem doing 3.4 points better.

Hillary vs Trump RCP averaging

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Clinton

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Clinton

www.realclearpolitics.com

Biden vs Trump RCP averaging

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden

www.realclearpolitics.com

 

[Anagram]

Trump is doing better in Pennsylvania than he was around this date in 2016.

The only swing state where Trump is clearly doing worse, compared to 2016, is Ohio.

That's just a meaningless statement. He's also doing worse in Pennsylvania than he was around this date in 2016 as from September 24-October 2 Hillary led by like an average of 2. It is not especially helpful to compare September 25 to September 25 but it is also not especially helpful to compare September 25 2020 to October 3 2016 like you are doing here.

It's also pretty clear your second statement is not true. As shown in my first post in this thread, Trump is very clearly polling worse in Georgia and Texas than he was at this point in 2015. He's also very clearly doing worse in Arizona, Nevada (not that there's a ton of polling there), and Iowa. Trump isn't really polling appreciably better than 2016 anywhere. Like Pennsylvania there are some periods around September 25, 2016 where he is currently polling better than he did than in Wisconsin, Florida, Michigan, and North Carolina. But there are also periods around now of 2016 that he is currently polling worse than.

I feel like you look at the polling, identify a specific area where Trump has improved since 2016 and hold onto that, but ignore the areas where he hasn't. The fact that there were those two polls in Pennsylvania that showed Clinton up double digits has been mentioned by you several times in this thread, but the fact that there were also periods around now in 2016 where Trump polled worse than he is currently polling just seems to be ignored.

 

[Perotista]

You all need to read the thread title lol.

The last word in the title is “Polls.”

Meaning these two polls, referenced in the Fox article.

Conservatives literally have to put up with this nearly every day. Liberals starting thread after thread based on one poll.

And now, when a single, reliable poll shows good news for Trump, liberals seem to be freaking out.

Regardless of conservative, liberal, pro-Trump, anti-Trump, Republican, Democrat, I always refer those who I see citing one poll to RCP and their averages. Any poll can be skewed, but averaging evens everything out. Which polls to be believed? The one who puts my guy up or the one who puts the other guy up? Just average them all together, as long as all are recent.

 

[calamity]

Here's the good news. Trump is not leading in any state he lost in 2016. But, he is far behind in three that he won: Michigan, Wisconsin and PA.

The bad news?

The damage has been done, boys. The US will never recover from Trumpism.

 

[Carolina]

At least I like my candidate.

The fact that you like Trump as a person tells me all I need to know about you.

 

[ReubenSherr]

2016 RCP average in Pennsyvlania Clinton +2.6
Final result Trump +0.7

2020 RCP average in Pennsylvania Biden +4.3

You keep comparing current Pennsylvania polling with the final average from 2016.

By October 4, 2016, Clinton was +7.5, in Pennsylvania, per RCP.

On August 25, 2016, in PA, Clinton was +9.2

On October 10, 2016 in PA, Clinton was back to +9.2

As you can tell from the RCP graph, the last week of September was not characteristic of Clinton's PA lead in 2016.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Clinton

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Clinton

www.realclearpolitics.com

Trump's current PA lead is +4.3. Comparing this to the last week in September 2016 is extremely misleading. As is obvious by the RCP graph.

 

[Anagram]

2016 Hillary at this point was 45.4
2020 Biden at this point - 48.8

There are less undecideds so both are doing better. The dem is doing more betterer with Trump doing 1.5 points better and the dem doing 3.4 points better.

I think this is something not enough people are paying attention to. In the states where the polls missed the margins the most in 2016, they did not really overstate Hillary's support for the most part. There was one poll in Pennsylvania from September 1, 2016 forward which had Hillary at 50% or higher. Most polls had her support at or below her eventual 47.5% while having a high number of undecideds and overestimating the support for the Libertarians and Greens. Michigan and Wisconsin are the same way. Few polls overestimated Hillary's eventual support in those states. No polls in Wisconsin had her at 50% and only one in Michigan did. There's not really evidence these polls were overestimating Hillary's support at all.

If that holds true in 2020, then Biden is in a much stronger position. He's currently averaging 50% in Wisconsin. There have already been 4-5 post September polls in Pennsylvania with him over 50% and most at 48-49%. About half the polls in Michigan have him at 50%. If this time around, like in 2016, the polls are not overestimating his support, then it doesn't really matter what happens to the third party support or undecideds, even if they all eventually voted for Trump.

 

[Man0in3Black]

You like Biden?

What do you like about him?

He’ll put people in place that are experts, unlike what we have in this administration (DeVoss, Carson, etc.). He’ll listen to those experts and not say he knows more than his generals, the scientific community (my uncle was a doctor, so that makes me an expert), he won’t lie every 10 seconds (yes, a bit of an exaggeration, but he won’t be say a lot of people tell me/ are saying - to try to defend himself) and most of all—he’s not afraid to reach across the aisle when compromise is needed because he’s done it before and some Republicans have all ready said they’d be willing to work with him when he asks, and he’s going to ask.

 

[ReubenSherr]

The fact that you like Trump as a person tells me all I need to know about you.

The fact that you judge people based on what you hear Don Lemon spew at you tells me all I need to know about you.

Your political party is already engaged in voter fraud. You have no moral highground.

https://www.star-telegram.com/news/politics-government/state-politics/article245985960.html

 

[ReubenSherr]

Regardless of conservative, liberal, pro-Trump, anti-Trump, Republican, Democrat, I always refer those who I see citing one poll to RCP and their averages. Any poll can be skewed, but averaging evens everything out. Which polls to be believed? The one who puts my guy up or the one who puts the other guy up? Just average them all together, as long as all are recent.

I hear you, but remember that ABC is given an "A+" by 538 (not surprisingly, they own 538 lol)

Regardless, according to Nate Silver, whom some on this site worship as a God, ABC is the most accurate polling firm. And they have Trump ahead in both Arizona and Florida.

 

[JANFU]

What’s inappropriate about it? Even the Republican controlled Senate unanimously feels that Trump has gone too far in trying to undermine the election results. They felt Trump way out of line. In a completely unprecedented move they passed the following resolution:


RESOLUTION
Reaffirming the Senate’s commitment to the orderly and peaceful transfer of power called for in the Constitution of the United States, and for other purposes.
Whereas the United States is founded on the principle that our Government derives its power from the consent of the governed and that the people have the right to change their elected leaders through elections;
Whereas our domestic tranquility, national security, general welfare, and civil liberties depend upon the peaceful and orderly transfer of power; and
Whereas any disruption occasioned by the transfer of the ex- ecutive power could produce results detrimental to the safety and well-being of the United States and its people: Now, therefore, be it

Resolved, That the Senate—
(1) reaffirms its commitment to the orderly and peaceful transfer of power called for in the Constitu- tion of the United States; and
(2) intends that there should be no disruptions by the President or any person in power to overturn the will of the people of the United States.


No one ever said that Nate Silver is politically neutral lol. Nate has an opinion just like everyone else and he has every right to publish it.

You are confused about the difference between the website’s opinion articles (in this case it’s not an article, it’s a video) and the forecasts. The forecasts are based on statistical models which have been fine tuned over time to give the most accurate predictions he can come up with. The predictions are not opinions. That doesn’t mean that they will always be right either, but Nate’s goal in his forecasts is accuracy, not political slant. His methodology is all laid out for anyone to examine.

Take Fox as another example, their opinion shows are basically just red meat for the radical right, but that doesn’t mean that they don’t publish well regarded polls (much to Trump’s dismay...his first tweet of the day today out of 46 so far as of 3pm was to complain about Fox’s polling). Trump loves the Fox red meat, but hates it when they publish polls that are based on mathematically sound methodology without some right wing nut job massaging the results.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Reflective of what a mess your country is in

 

[PoliSciXtina]

You all need to read the thread title lol.

The last word in the title is “Polls.”

Meaning these two polls, referenced in the Fox article.

Conservatives literally have to put up with this nearly every day. Liberals starting thread after thread based on one poll.

And now, when a single, reliable poll shows good news for Trump, liberals seem to be freaking out.

Biden and trump virtually tied in Georgia is not good news for trump. If you think thats good news then I don’t know what else to say, LOL


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Perotista]

I hear you, but remember that ABC is given an "A+" by 538 (not surprisingly, they own 538 lol)

Regardless, according to Nate Silver, whom some on this site worship as a God, ABC is the most accurate polling firm. And they have Trump ahead in both Arizona and Florida.

I like Nate, but my preference is RCP. I do a lot of comparison with both. I'll also follow Cook, Rothenberg, 270 to win, Larry Sabato, and a few others. I think what some folks forget is all these polls do is show you where things stand today within a certain margin of error. One can use them to look for trends over 3 or 4 months, see who moving up or down over a fairly long period of time. There all useful in their own way, but none can tell you where things will stand 40 days from now. Not me, not any poll taken today.

 

[poweRob]

You keep comparing current Pennsylvania polling with the final average from 2016.

By October 4, 2016, Clinton was +7.5, in Pennsylvania, per RCP.

On August 25, 2016, in PA, Clinton was +9.2

On October 10, 2016 in PA, Clinton was back to +9.2

As you can tell from the RCP graph, the last week of September was not characteristic of Clinton's PA lead in 2016.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Clinton

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Clinton

www.realclearpolitics.com

Trump's current PA lead is +4.3. Comparing this to the last week in September 2016 is extremely misleading. As is obvious by the RCP graph.

Then Comey did Trump's bidding and collapsed the polling margins. Are you depending on collective amnesia to support your optimistic claims? I guess you think Durham report will be this elelction's Comey bombshell?

Here's what you are not grasping. Trump isn't an unknown risk anymore. There is no more "taking a chance with the unknown" trump will bring. He's a known disaster. So... sweet dreams. Election is 39 days away.

 

[poweRob]

Here's the good news. Trump is not leading in any state he lost in 2016. But, he is far behind in three that he won: Michigan, Wisconsin and PA.

The bad news?

The damage has been done, boys. The US will never recover from Trumpism.

We don't need to recover. We need to redirect. "Going back" isn't appealing either.

 

[lurchadams]

Trump with the edge over Biden in Arizona, Florida and Georgia battlegrounds: polls

New polls in three crucial general election battleground states show President Trump holding the edge over Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden.

www.foxnews.com

"New polls in three crucial general election battleground states show President Trump holding the edge over Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden.

The president tops Biden 51%-47% among likely voters in Florida and Trump holds a 1-point 49%-48% edge over the former vice president among likely voters in Arizona, according to ABC News/Washington Post public opinion surveys released on Wednesday.

The president’s ahead of his Democratic challenger 48%-46% among likely voters in Georgia, according to a high voter turnout model in a Monmouth University survey that was also released on Wednesday."

Hey, lookie here! According to Faux Noose:

Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump in the battleground states of Nevada, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, according to Fox News statewide likely voter surveys.


In each of the three states, majorities disapprove of the job Trump is doing as president, pluralities say coronavirus is “not at all” under control, and Biden is the preferred choice when it comes to handling the virus. Plus, he’s favored over Trump to nominate the next U.S. Supreme Court justice.

 

[poweRob]

I hear you, but remember that ABC is given an "A+" by 538 (not surprisingly, they own 538 lol)

Regardless, according to Nate Silver, whom some on this site worship as a God, ABC is the most accurate polling firm. And they have Trump ahead in both Arizona and Florida.

Whatever. The only one I see that 538 give the lowest grade (that they will display results) of D- is Survey Monkey and they also rate them as the most liberal of all the polls they will display. Your claims of bias at 538 are a last gasp effort to not acknowledge that you don't know wtf you are talking about. Which is why you cherry pick polls so awfully.