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Trump argument bolstered: Clinton received 800,000 votes from noncitizens, study find

Re: Trump argument bolstered: Clinton received 800,000 votes from noncitizens, study

https://fs.wp.odu.edu/jrichman/2016...argin-of-trumps-popular-vote-loss-to-clinton/

January 24, 2017.



Which is not to say that Trump is right or wrong, but rather that maybe there is something to the idea that a significant number of illegal votes are being cast.

Here are some slightly better assessments of this supposed study.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...f-non-citizens-voting/?utm_term=.3ced2c9ff472

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261379415001420

As it turns out the entire study is more likely explained simply by misreporting by people in the poll. There's a whole other study on how often people in polls of this size tend to give inaccurate answers to questions.

There's so many ifs, buts, maybes, and hopefullys needed to justify this study there's really no way you can rely on it at all. Voting by non-citizens in the United States is illegal, therefore there is really no way to study it with any reliability.

In fact I would argue that if I was a non-citizen who some how managed to vote in a federal election I wouldn't tell anybody about it even in an anonymous poll because I wouldn't want anybody realizing it happened and looking into it. What actually seems more likely to me is that a bunch of Republicans just lied and claimed they weren't citizens hoping to influence the poll to justify increasing laws that make it harder to vote.

Realistically about the only way a non-citizen could get away with voting is if they had some really good fake documents that allowed them to get past the screening process for registration. If that's the case they're not going anywhere anyway so you might as well let them have a say.

Just think about it logically for one second. Why on earth would someone risk getting caught committing a felony just to influence a federal election by 1 vote, when that election is almost certainly going to be won by thousands and thousands of votes? You're basically risking prison for no gain whatsoever. If you're seriously trying to illegally rig an election you need to be able to do something that adds thousands of votes to your sides total. The idea of individuals committing crimes like this intentionally is just absurd.

I mean 60% of the country that does have the legal right to vote won't even go through the minimal effort of voting because they don't think their vote matters.
 
Re: Trump argument bolstered: Clinton received 800,000 votes from noncitizens, study

Republicans have never adequately explained what voter ID laws would accomplish. Voter fraud, as it exists today, typically takes the form of absentee ballots. Impersonation at the polls is extraordinarily rare.

Absentee ballots typically favor GOPs, therefore GOPs don't want them investigated.

Republicans have been caught on tape bragging about what voter ID does.

Sessions as the AG overlooking GOP voter suppression laws is a disaster for DEMs .
 
Re: Trump argument bolstered: Clinton received 800,000 votes from noncitizens, study

If I had control over the odds it wouldn't be "betting." So do you want to make that bet or not?

Not really.
 
Re: Trump argument bolstered: Clinton received 800,000 votes from noncitizens, study

Hillary Clinton received 800,000 votes from noncitizens, bolsters Trump argument, study finds - Washington Times



My point is this: We have no problem studying everything that comes across the radar screen, so there is nothing wrong with studying this. California, and other "machine" states, certainly have certainly created a climate of illegality being "no big thing".

This is directly from the study.

"extrapolated that of a 19.4 million estimate of adult noncitizens, about 620,000 were illegally registered to vote in the 2008 presidential election. Using other measuring tools, they said, the actual number of noncitizen voters could be as low as 38,000 and as high as 2.8 million."

a range of 2,762,000... Not very scientific.

Hillary Clinton received 800,000 votes from noncitizens, bolsters Trump argument, study finds - Washington Times
 
Re: Trump argument bolstered: Clinton received 800,000 votes from noncitizens, study

I thought his supporters were very concerned about HRC because she lied?

GOPeople began going after Clinton and lying about her over 40 years ago when she was on the Watergate staff.

GOP voters were simply more dedicated to their party in the six states trump flipped from 2012.

Clinton could not reassemble Obama's coalition for more reasons than I care to repeat.

Now it's just one piece of disinformation and blatant lie after another from trump and his people.

One thing we do know, trump will **** on his allies and kiss putin's ass.

When yer president decides what's happened first and then demands proof from government workers, such as 3-5 million illegal voters or the largest ever inaugural crowds, you can be sure any statistics coming from the government will be skewed .
 
Re: Trump argument bolstered: Clinton received 800,000 votes from noncitizens, study

The original original report is here

http://www.judicialwatch.org/wp-con...tizens-Vote-in-US-Elections-Richman-et-al.pdf

And his comments are based on extrapolation from that. There isnt any real hard facts here, just estimates. So Trump is not neccesarily wrong, but we also dont have any evidence either way. Democrats are hard against voter ID so I dont know if we'll ever really know who is voting.

If he's basing his estimate on this study, Trump is wrong. Also, one problem the courts routinely cite with "voter ID" laws is ID is not intended to verify eligibility to vote. Lots of legal residents, and the study includes ALL non-citizens whether here legally or not, have DLs and other forms of legitimate ID that can be used at voting booths.
 
Re: Trump argument bolstered: Clinton received 800,000 votes from noncitizens, study

Not really.

As I thought. Well if you decide you have any faith in Trump you know where to find me.
 
Re: Trump argument bolstered: Clinton received 800,000 votes from noncitizens, study

Are you saying he lied or Trump lied?

Trump - it's impossible to use that study to support a number of 3 million.
 
Re: Trump argument bolstered: Clinton received 800,000 votes from noncitizens, study

Hmmmm....some 830K votes would seem to be more than the "few" that liberals always like to throw out there touting that there is NO voter fraud problem...Do you think over 800K votes fraudulently cast is a problem deserving an investigation?

You, like Trump, are misinterpreting the results of the study.

https://www.rawstory.com/2017/01/st...-twisting-his-research-on-non-citizen-voting/

“First of all, he’s confusing our study with another study, and then he’s flipping ours around and exaggerating the most extreme estimates from it,” Richman told The Virginian-Pilot.

Those figures sound alarming, but Richman pointed out that non-citizens are just a fraction of the U.S. population, at about 20 million adults.

“They maybe make up — at the very, very high end — 1 percent of an electorate,” Richman said.

Even if non-citizens attempted to vote at the same rate last last, and every single one of them had voted for Clinton, Richman said they would not have cost Trump the popular vote.

More info here:
Trump’s order for “major investigation” into voter fraud is based on misquoted ODU research

Not to mention, the study itself has flaws that have been pointed out.

The Perils of Cherry Picking Low Frequency Events in Large Sample Surveys | CCES
 
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Re: Trump argument bolstered: Clinton received 800,000 votes from noncitizens, study

Hmmmm....some 830K votes would seem to be more than the "few" that liberals always like to throw out there touting that there is NO voter fraud problem...Do you think over 800K votes fraudulently cast is a problem deserving an investigation?

Just to be clear, almost always what 'liberals' claim is there is the amount of impersonation fraud at the polls addressed by "voter ID" laws is trivial, because that's what all the evidence tells us.

I don't know if non-citizens are voting, or in what numbers. The estimate above isn't a good one, but it appears there are at least thousands. The problem is the study looks at citizens and non-citizens, many of whom are legal residents and so will HAVE a valid ID like a DL - that might even be how they got registered and vote, through the DMV and either DMV or the person getting a DL made a mistake.

Point is "voter ID" won't address this problem, like it won't address the problems with absentee voting.
 
Re: Trump argument bolstered: Clinton received 800,000 votes from noncitizens, study


Ok, let's use your numbers here that YOU quoted, then you can tell me where I am going wrong....

Your quotes said:

"Those figures sound alarming, but Richman pointed out that non-citizens are just a fraction of the U.S. population, at about 20 million adults."

and most importantly

"hey maybe make up — at the very, very high end — 1 percent of an electorate,” Richman said."

Now we know that approximately 130,000,000 people voted this past election. If 1% of that were illegals voting, than that works out to 1.3 million, NO? Is that not a problem?
 
Re: Trump argument bolstered: Clinton received 800,000 votes from noncitizens, study

Just to be clear, almost always what 'liberals' claim is there is the amount of impersonation fraud at the polls addressed by "voter ID" laws is trivial, because that's what all the evidence tells us.

I don't know if non-citizens are voting, or in what numbers. The estimate above isn't a good one, but it appears there are at least thousands. The problem is the study looks at citizens and non-citizens, many of whom are legal residents and so will HAVE a valid ID like a DL - that might even be how they got registered and vote, through the DMV and either DMV or the person getting a DL made a mistake.

Point is "voter ID" won't address this problem, like it won't address the problems with absentee voting.

I think I see the shifting from "there is no problem" to "not a problem that can be solved" Sorry, that is not good enough for me at least.
 
Re: Trump argument bolstered: Clinton received 800,000 votes from noncitizens, study

I think I see the shifting from "there is no problem" to "not a problem that can be solved" Sorry, that is not good enough for me at least.

What would be good enough? No black voters? That's the bottom line for all this fake concern about a NON ISSUE.
 
Re: Trump argument bolstered: Clinton received 800,000 votes from noncitizens, study

I think I see the shifting from "there is no problem" to "not a problem that can be solved" Sorry, that is not good enough for me at least.

The problem can be solved, but the point is "voter ID" is NOT likely the solution. You're misstating both our actual assertions on "voter fraud" and why we make them, which is almost always in response to some claim about "voter ID" which means in these conversations means the narrow lists of government issued photo ID in a few red states, not "ID" in general.

If those non-citizens voted, the actual problem that needs addressing was in the process of them getting registered to vote. Voter ID simply is NOT intended to be verification of eligibility because ineligible voters of all kinds (e.g. non-citizens and convicted felons in some states) can get ID accepted at the polls - that's what registering is supposed to do.
 
Re: Trump argument bolstered: Clinton received 800,000 votes from noncitizens, study

Rape and rob the nation by trying to bring back jobs to the U.S. and develop our own natural resources?

Rape and rob the nation by pretending those are his goals and getting fools to believe him.
 
Re: Trump argument bolstered: Clinton received 800,000 votes from noncitizens, study

I think I see the shifting from "there is no problem" to "not a problem that can be solved" Sorry, that is not good enough for me at least.

Not "can't be solved."

Your solution doesn't accomplish anything, and in fact makes things worse.

Just because you don't have a functional solution doesn't mean it doesn't exist.
 
Re: Trump argument bolstered: Clinton received 800,000 votes from noncitizens, study

Trump's claim was 3-5 million. Trump exaggerates. This is a trend. My question is that was there or was there not data that showed people who were not citizens that voted?

Sure, I would imagine that nationwide one could probably string together a couple of hundred non-citizen illegal votes in any presidential election year.

As to "Trump exaggerates", no Trump simply lies. For example, if I said I caught a flathead this morning that had a mouth on him the size of a 5 gallon bucket, that would be an exaggeration. However, if I said I caught the world record flathead and its on a traveling exhibit and I have many awards for my fishing skills, no one is a better fisherman than I am. That would be a lie.
 
Re: Trump argument bolstered: Clinton received 800,000 votes from noncitizens, study

Ok, let's use your numbers here that YOU quoted, then you can tell me where I am going wrong....

Your quotes said:

"Those figures sound alarming, but Richman pointed out that non-citizens are just a fraction of the U.S. population, at about 20 million adults."

and most importantly

"hey maybe make up — at the very, very high end — 1 percent of an electorate,” Richman said."

Now we know that approximately 130,000,000 people voted this past election. If 1% of that were illegals voting, than that works out to 1.3 million, NO? Is that not a problem?

Here's where you are going wrong: The 1% figure is not the number of non-citizens who voted. This is where the Trump Administration misrepresented the research findings. The study in question claimed that at least 14 percent of non-citizens were registered to vote, not that they had actually casted ballots in the election.

When it comes to the ones that voted, the study estimated that about 6.4% of non-citizens turned out to vote.

That is where the 800,000 estimate came from. But the author of the study acknowledges that it wouldn't be enough to give Hillary the popular vote.

6.4 percent turnout among the roughly 20.3 million non-citizen adults in the US would add only 834,318 votes to Clinton’s popular vote margin. This is little more than a third of the total margin.

Is it plausible that non-citizen votes added to Clinton’s margin. Yes. Is it plausible that non-citizen votes account for the entire nation-wide popular vote margin held by Clinton? Not at all.

If the percentage of non-citizens voting for Clinton is held constant, roughly 18.5 percent of non-citizens would have had to vote for their votes to have made up the entire Clinton popular vote margin. I don’t think that this rate is at all plausible. Even if we assume that 90 percent voted for Clinton and only 10 percent for Trump, a more than fourteen percent turnout would be necessary to account for Clinton’s popular vote margin. This is much higher than the estimates we offered. Again, it seems too high to be plausible.

https://fs.wp.odu.edu/jrichman/2016...argin-of-trumps-popular-vote-loss-to-clinton/
 
Re: Trump argument bolstered: Clinton received 800,000 votes from noncitizens, study

I haven't read the whole study, but an internet survey where people indicate whether they are citizens or not? Sounds fishy to me, seems like people could put in whatever they want. The only reason we are even talking about this is that our new president's ego can't stand the fact that he lost the popular vote. Even if this study is correct, he still lost by more than 2 million. If there is some validity to this what's the answer?
 
Re: Trump argument bolstered: Clinton received 800,000 votes from noncitizens, study

As I thought. Well if you decide you have any faith in Trump you know where to find me.

So far he's moving forward, and I'm fine with that. And you have nothing more than your hate to see you through. Sucks to be you.
 
Re: Trump argument bolstered: Clinton received 800,000 votes from noncitizens, study

So far he's moving forward, and I'm fine with that. And you have nothing more than your hate to see you through. Sucks to be you.

I am love given human form. And words are cheap -- when you decide you want to back them up with something more concrete, you know where to find me.
 
Re: Trump argument bolstered: Clinton received 800,000 votes from noncitizens, study

trump is a blatant irrational cowardly liar

I wouldn't call him a cowardly liar, more like a brazen liar.
 
Re: Trump argument bolstered: Clinton received 800,000 votes from noncitizens, study

Rape and rob the nation by pretending those are his goals and getting fools to believe him.

So what are his goals by trying to do those things? What's his end-game?
 
Re: Trump argument bolstered: Clinton received 800,000 votes from noncitizens, study

Sure, I would imagine that nationwide one could probably string together a couple of hundred non-citizen illegal votes in any presidential election year.

As to "Trump exaggerates", no Trump simply lies. For example, if I said I caught a flathead this morning that had a mouth on him the size of a 5 gallon bucket, that would be an exaggeration. However, if I said I caught the world record flathead and its on a traveling exhibit and I have many awards for my fishing skills, no one is a better fisherman than I am. That would be a lie.

That makes sense. I'll not deny he likes to have his own facts, but that's hardly distinctive these days.
 
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