Let's review and paraphrase a recent article by
Louis Woodhill:
In 1955, the top individual income tax rate was 91% and the top capital gains tax rate was 25%. Under this incentive structure, the 400 most successful Americans earned income equal to 0.20% of GDP and contributed 0.59% of Federal revenues. In 2008, the top individual income tax rate was 35% and the top capital gains tax rate was 15%. Faced with these lower tax rates, the 400 most successful Americans earned income equal to 0.75% of GDP and provided 0.80% of Federal revenues.
Woodhill notes that a supply-sider might look at these numbers and say that the tax rate cuts produced the expected result: it caused the "top 400" to produce more income and pay more in taxes.
Let's look further: in FY1955, federal revenues were 16.5% of GDP. In FY2008, they were 17.5% of GDP. Conclusion: over this 53 year span, the top marginal rate went down significantly, as did the top capital gains rate, and revenues as a percent of GDP went
up.
So what is the problem?
Between FY1955 and FY2008, federal revenues increased by 1.0% of GDP. But, federal spending increased 3.4% of GDP, resulting in the deficit increasing by 2.4% of GDP. Defense spending wasn't the problem, falling from 10.8% of GDP in '55 to 4.3% of GDP in '08.
Maybe it was this: Between '55 and '08, transfer payments, or "Payments to Individuals" went from 3.6% of GDP to 12.7% of GDP. Better known as the 'rise of the welfare state.'
The top 400 taxpayers are not the problem. The numbers show that they are paying more taxes and a greater share of total taxes than they were in your so-called 'good old days' of 91% marginal tax rates.
But wait! Here is a 'shoot the messenger' alert! The article paraphrased above is from Forbes, which some might say is a decidedly conservatively-oriented publication. Hence, the conclusions therein should be dismissed out of hand.
Unfortunately for those who would wish to do so, the supporting hard data is available in the
IRS Statistics of Income.
Clearly, the priorities and resulting spending decisions set by successive administrations, regardless of party affiliation, have brought us to our current predicament. Even if you don't accept the legitimacy of the hard data-and granted that ideologically wed die-hards still will not and most likely never will-you must admit that without the increased tax revenues, we would be in even worse shape now.