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Surprise, surprise, states with lower vaccine rates seeing rise in covid cases

justabubba

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Look, this is debate over vaccination and infection rates - not on the seasonality of CV-19. But after doing a little research I now get why you are obsessing on it while ignoring the op - apparently Trump mentioned seasonality and ever since then its tainted this subject because, as we know, if trump says the world is more like a sphere than a disk the TDS folk will say Trump is a liar.

So NOW I (we) get your obsession over a tangential observation. However, I don't intend to waste time getting derailed by your TDS inspired hobby horse but I will give you a chance to learn something.


This shouldn't be news to you. All Coronaviruses have a seasonal component and are more virulent in cold, dry air in winter. There is no reason to suppose that CV-19 is any different. And if you bother to look up the stuff I refer you to (and I doubt you will) then put worldometers on your list look at the CV-19 death chart (far more reliable than the case rate) for the US and it is face slapping clear: the explosion in cases (starting upon initial infections) exploded from February 2020 on. THEN deaths per day shrank dramatically for those Northern Eastern States during the summer, and this in the late fall exploded again to even greater rates than early 2020.

So yes, it is seasonal BUT there is a twist to CV19...its almost completely harmless outdoors and requires prolonged exposure inside structures. Moreover its mode of transmission is not primarily by visual droplets, but by invisible vapor particles that float. When a super-spreader (say in a bar or restaurant) pumps his/her covid into a room it recirculates and infects when the air reaches a particular density of virial particles.

So IN SPITE of the natural seasonality of COVID (meaning the summer UV, heat, and humidity work against it outdoors) the states (the south and south west) that require the most indoor air cooling at the peak of summer are the ones that were more infected in the summer of 2020...accounting for the smaller "wave" in that period.

So yes, it would not be surprising if this summer there was a bump in new cases in certain states due to increased indoor exposure ...which also happen to be the several states being compared (I assume) in the op.
That’s not how it works. Pity that you do not realize that you were the one who posted the assertion and thus, you are the one responsible for showing that it is a valid one. Given that you have presented it as long established data, it should be easy for you to offer a cite to support your argument. That you can’t tells us that your argument has no value
 

NuffSaid

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Trump got vaccinated and so did his wife........ so why are the robots not getting vaccinated?

If the vaccination isn't safe why was Trump allowed to get vaccinated?
Trump did it in secret, as to not upset the rubes.
 

bullseyelqcs

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I debunked that ploy days ago. The rise is insignificant and, by the way, given that COVID has a summer seasonality component even that should not be a surprise.

YAWN.
Its more a case of the WHERE its happening than anything.....and the fact that in the face of the claim you made, places with higher vaccination rates arent seeing the same rises.

Yawn indeed.
 

maxparrish

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So your contention is that education makes people more stupid?

That's stupid.
When their education exceeds their ability to use it, not only does it tend to make them more stupid, it also makes them dangerious.
 

maxparrish

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it doesn't have a season.....Covid has been ongoing for over a year now...it didn't abate in the summer months. What I do know is that here in Florida, a government office had 7 employees....and only 1 was vaccinated....someone brought Covid in...and 6 were infected with it...of those 5 were hospitalized and 1 died...the only one who didn't get it was the person fully vaccinated.

All CV's have a seasonality component, the difference here being that because CV is transmitted almost entirely indoors there is a correlation between when people are forced in doors due to cold or heat. Hence, no surprise that a smaller but still detectable rise in cases occur in the hottest states in the US in summer.
 

Deuce

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I didn't forget, I am stating a uncontroversial fact available in any COVID reference work. I assume that reader in these threads are sufficiently literate to know the uncontroversial baseline facts of COVID and shouldn't need remedial education on things he/she should have known by now if they want to be taken seriously - any more than I'd assume you need a cite for the fact that CV-19 is a corona virus or that at S.L. water boils at 100 degree Celsius.

Curious though, how is it you first forget to tell the author of the OP to cite anything at all in his original assertion - you know, so that we could be acquainted with the facts of his claim which has been "recently established" solely by him?

Hypocritical criticism, is it?

It's long established fact that Joe Biden won the election and that global warming is a problem we need to deal with.

I just assume you're sufficiently literate to know those uncontroversial facts.
 

maxparrish

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That’s not how it works. Pity that you do not realize that you were the one who posted the assertion and thus, you are the one responsible for showing that it is a valid one. Given that you have presented it as long established data, it should be easy for you to offer a cite to support your argument. That you can’t tells us that your argument has no value

I cited support for my observation. You have cited nothing to date, nor has the op. Ergo your denial has no value.

Moving on to someone who is informed.
 

bullseyelqcs

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Look, this is debate over vaccination and infection rates - not on the seasonality of CV-19. But after doing a little research I now get why you are obsessing on it while ignoring the op - apparently Trump mentioned seasonality and ever since then its tainted this subject because, as we know, if trump says the world is more like a sphere than a disk the TDS folk will say Trump is a liar.

So NOW I (we) get your obsession over a tangential observation. However, I don't intend to waste time getting derailed by your TDS inspired hobby horse but I will give you a chance to learn something.


This shouldn't be news to you. All Coronaviruses have a seasonal component and are more virulent in cold, dry air in winter. There is no reason to suppose that CV-19 is any different. And if you bother to look up the stuff I refer you to (and I doubt you will) then put worldometers on your list look at the CV-19 death chart (far more reliable than the case rate) for the US and it is face slapping clear: the explosion in cases (starting upon initial infections) exploded from February 2020 on. THEN deaths per day shrank dramatically for those Northern Eastern States during the summer, and this in the late fall exploded again to even greater rates than early 2020.

So yes, it is seasonal BUT there is a twist to CV19...its almost completely harmless outdoors and requires prolonged exposure inside structures. Moreover its mode of transmission is not primarily by visual droplets, but by invisible vapor particles that float. When a super-spreader (say in a bar or restaurant) pumps his/her covid into a room it recirculates and infects when the air reaches a particular density of virial particles.

So IN SPITE of the natural seasonality of COVID (meaning the summer UV, heat, and humidity work against it outdoors) the states (the south and south west) that require the most indoor air cooling at the peak of summer are the ones that were more infected in the summer of 2020...accounting for the smaller "wave" in that period.

So yes, it would not be surprising if this summer there was a bump in new cases in certain states due to increased indoor exposure ...which also happen to be the several states being compared (I assume) in the op.
What the hell are you getting on about? I bet you dont even understand that you just shot your entire premise in the foot yourself. Let me explain....

There are going to ne LESS people inside during the summer, seeing as to how most people are doing outdoor activities, and just like last year in July when the numbers started falling and Trump and Co. tried to say things were over and we could get back to normal, you would expect the numbers to be dropping even more this year with vaccination on the table. Instead, we are seeing a rise in cases, and not surprisingly, in places with the lowest vaccination rates.

As for your claim about air conditioning and such....again, in the vast majority of cases, that would affect a familial unit, not the general public, excepting for the few idiots last year who were simply hell bent on not using common sense and following some sort of guidelines.....but again, those are the same people who are likely to be the unvaccinated now who are being spoken of, so my point still stands and yours still fails.
 

maxparrish

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Its more a case of the WHERE its happening than anything.....and the fact that in the face of the claim you made, places with higher vaccination rates arent seeing the same rises.

Yawn indeed.

You haven't even shown that it (rising rates) is happening anywhere in the US, nor provided a single citation or evidence of who is and is not seeing "the same rises".

So ya, you continue to make an unsupported truth claim.
 

beefheart

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I am truly sorry that you lost your sister from Covid. I had Covid in January...even when I had cancer and was going through treatments I was not as sick as I was from Covid...it is an experience that I pray never repeats.
I tested positive for Covid one year ago today, my GF had tested a few days before and was positive. But it took 8 days to get the results...but I knew I had it, I had the symptoms, I was sick.
 

maxparrish

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What the hell are you getting on about? I bet you dont even understand that you just shot your entire premise in the foot yourself. Let me explain....

There are going to ne LESS people inside during the summer, seeing as to how most people are doing outdoor activities, and just like last year in July when the numbers started falling and Trump and Co. tried to say things were over and we could get back to normal, you would expect the numbers to be dropping even more this year with vaccination on the table. Instead, we are seeing a rise in cases, and not surprisingly, in places with the lowest vaccination rates.

As for your claim about air conditioning and such....again, in the vast majority of cases, that would affect a familial unit, not the general public, excepting for the few idiots last year who were simply hell bent on not using common sense and following some sort of guidelines.....but again, those are the same people who are likely to be the unvaccinated now who are being spoken of, so my point still stands and yours still fails.

Incorrect. People's use of indoors is affected by outside comfort levels. In the most temperate states, using the outdoors in winter (e.g. Florida, Arizona, etc.) isn't nearly as unpleasant as using the outdoors in summer (and it is the opposite for the most Northern of US states). Hence, in summer people tend to go out more and congregate in bars, theaters, etc. All these places are hot spots for infection and recirculated AC air (again this is well known, which is why "lockdowns" were pushed).

As Nate Silver has shown, for deep south and south-west states there was a strong correlation between heating/cooling degree days and COVID case/death rates.

And you can see it in the data - last year the NE had the hotspots in winter/spring...then the south/southwest had the hot spots in summer (although much smaller), and then in winter the seasonality kicked in again with a vengeance for the upper midwest/great plain states (e.g. the Dakotas).

Of course there are other factors but latitude, inside/outside exposure, and cooling/heating days are all factors.
 

Visbek

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All CV's have a seasonality component, the difference here being that because CV is transmitted almost entirely indoors there is a correlation between when people are forced in doors due to cold or heat. Hence, no surprise that a smaller but still detectable rise in cases occur in the hottest states in the US in summer.
Except... that isn't what actually happened.

Keep in mind that reports of new cases are delayed by 2-3 weeks, in part because it takes about a week for symptoms to appear, and then tack on another 7-10 days because of delays in testing.

There was a surge in reported cases in last spring/early summer last year (which seemed big at the time, but in retrospect looks small). It started to recede in early August, because the hardest-hit states started social distancing. There was then a small bump as the virus spread to new states, mostly the Midwest, in no small part because those states were taking fewer precautions.

Then, in the winter, the number of cases exploded. This was partly because people were congregating indoors, as well as ignoring social distancing to do things such as visit family and friends during the three major holidays (Thanksgiving, Xmas, New Year's). Cases then started to fall, in part because of vaccination, and because people went back to social distancing.

Note how cases started to fall in early January -- long before most Americans could socialize outdoors.

And again... Those reports are all at least 3 weeks late. Meaning the initial surge was in early spring (not summer), and started to recede in late July (when temps really start to rise). The big winter surge also really started receding after Xmas.

Also note how the US, which is around 50% fully vaccinated, isn't seeing a big surge yet this summer -- and that's despite an early heat wave hitting numerous states.

91-DIVOC-countries-UnitedStates.png

We see the same pattern in states that have intense heat during summer (driving people indoors) and mild winters (where weather is less likely to drive people indoors).

91-DIVOC-states-normalized-Arizona.png

Whatever "seasonal effect" there is of heat driving people indoors, it is clearly overwhelmed by the ways summer weather reduces the virus -- e.g. more people able to socialize outdoors, and the virus getting killed fairly quickly by the UV in sunlight.

Now, we can see from the above graphs that the lower vaccination rates have not resulted in a major surge in the US. So far, the bumps are small -- which isn't too surprising, as even the slowest states have fully vaccinated at least 30% of their population.

However, those bumps aren't happening in the hottest states. They're happening in Alaska, Missouri, and Oklahoma. :unsure:
 

justabubba

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I cited support for my observation. You have cited nothing to date, nor has the op. Ergo your denial has no value.
no, you have not
you have made statements you cannot defend, while insisting they are "long established" facts
so long established that there is nothing which supports the stupidity you posted regarding covid's presence during different seasons
Moving on to someone who is informed.
that would be a good move. hopefully, you will then absorb some of what is being shared so that you will refrain from posting more unsubstantiated garbage
 

maxparrish

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Except... that isn't what actually happened.

Keep in mind that reports of new cases are delayed by 2-3 weeks, in part because it takes about a week for symptoms to appear, and then tack on another 7-10 days because of delays in testing.

There was a surge in reported cases in last spring/early summer last year (which seemed big at the time, but in retrospect looks small). It started to recede in early August, because the hardest-hit states started social distancing. There was then a small bump as the virus spread to new states, mostly the Midwest, in no small part because those states were taking fewer precautions.

Then, in the winter, the number of cases exploded. This was partly because people were congregating indoors, as well as ignoring social distancing to do things such as visit family and friends during the three major holidays (Thanksgiving, Xmas, New Year's). Cases then started to fall, in part because of vaccination, and because people went back to social distancing.

Note how cases started to fall in early January -- long before most Americans could socialize outdoors.

And again... Those reports are all at least 3 weeks late. Meaning the initial surge was in early spring (not summer), and started to recede in late July (when temps really start to rise). The big winter surge also really started receding after Xmas.

Also note how the US, which is around 50% fully vaccinated, isn't seeing a big surge yet this summer -- and that's despite an early heat wave hitting numerous states.

View attachment 67339342

We see the same pattern in states that have intense heat during summer (driving people indoors) and mild winters (where weather is less likely to drive people indoors).

View attachment 67339343

Whatever "seasonal effect" there is of heat driving people indoors, it is clearly overwhelmed by the ways summer weather reduces the virus -- e.g. more people able to socialize outdoors, and the virus getting killed fairly quickly by the UV in sunlight.

Now, we can see from the above graphs that the lower vaccination rates have not resulted in a major surge in the US. So far, the bumps are small -- which isn't too surprising, as even the slowest states have fully vaccinated at least 30% of their population.

However, those bumps aren't happening in the hottest states. They're happening in Alaska, Missouri, and Oklahoma. :unsure:

Thank you for providing a post that backup EXACTLY what I've been saying since the OP...that states with lower vaccination rates are NOT seeing significant rises in COVID cases, and if they did it would not be surprising because they are, for the most part, extremely hot summer states that drive people to congregate socially indoors.

There are two seasonality factors, one natural and the other behavioral. Summer (increased UV and heat) does harm COVID outdoors. On the other hand, COVID thrives indoors in conditioned systems (which are usually closed or partially closed ventilation).

As for the claim of increases I note three facts:

First, the media keeps changing their claims and examples as it suits them. Just a week ago it was 8 states that was said to be lower vaccinated and suffering increases, including Texas and Utah. https://www.deseret.com/u-s-world/2...ates-increase-daily-average-coronavirus-cases

Second, now it is claimed to be just four states, Wyoming, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana...of which just TWO were categorized as low vaccination states.

c) In reality, there hasn't been any significant increases in rates correlated to vaccination level.

The media is as reckless and ignorant as ever in the US - a media of yellow journalism by the incompetent or agenda driven.
 

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Doesn't it surprise you that those states with lower vaccine rates are all at once seeing a spike in covid cases>Apparently the new variant is both spreading faster, but is also more deadly. that is a deadly twosome for sure. what is funny is that I saw something that said out of the five states with the lowest vaccine rates are also part of the five states with the lowest education levels. i guess those with less education are mor easily fooled into not taking the vaccine.
So? Why should you care? This is America. We are a free country. You have the right to get Covid if you so choose. And, you have the right to be afraid of vaccines. How many drugs, etc have there been that people have taken, only to be party to class action lawsuits later on because of problems? It happens all the time.
 

Sandy Shanks

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the five states with the lowest vaccine rates are also part of the five states with the lowest education levels.

Doesn't it surprise you that those states with lower vaccine rates are all at once seeing a spike in covid cases>Apparently the new variant is both spreading faster, but is also more deadly.
There are ten states with the lowest vaccination rate. All ten are Republican-run states.
 

Metric Mouse

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Doesn't it surprise you that those states with lower vaccine rates are all at once seeing a spike in covid cases>Apparently the new variant is both spreading faster, but is also more deadly. that is a deadly twosome for sure. what is funny is that I saw something that said out of the five states with the lowest vaccine rates are also part of the five states with the lowest education levels. i guess those with less education are mor easily fooled into not taking the vaccine.

Certain types of people do seem to be more easily fooled than others. But in a few months this problem will sort itself out, I think.
 

Metric Mouse

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no surprise. You are correct. What kind of idiot would NOT get a vaccine??. Well, the same mentality that would vote for DJT .......

Among other types of idiots...

 

Metric Mouse

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Pretty much.

Most of their decisions are consistent with sufferers of severe blunt force trauma.

"Should I get a free, effective vaccine during a pandemic?"

"Answer Part One: No! Answer Part Two: Freedommmmmmmmmm!"
 

Metric Mouse

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Why are you offended that your right wing brethren in red states are too goddamned stupid to get vaccinated?
While talking points are fun, facts are better...

 

tres borrachos

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You are ignorant of CV-19 epidemic patterns. It has been long established that in summer, in those state (south and southwest) that are the most heavy users of A/C people tend to congregate more in doors, and that drove up the rates for those states last summer. In contrast, in the North, those states where winter keeps people in doors their rates tend to rise.

Therefore, as last year, it would not be surprising where those same states will bump a little higher - ALTHOUGH there is no proof that has done so, so far.

Unless you can support your parroted panic porn mantra's, you are not making an argument you are wasting our time.

I'm in NH. Our rates never rose, even when we were indoors. In fact, we had one of the lowest rates in the country.
 

Visbek

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Thank you for providing a post that backup EXACTLY what I've been saying since the OP...that states with lower vaccination rates are NOT seeing significant rises in COVID cases, and if they did it would not be surprising because they are, for the most part, extremely hot summer states that drive people to congregate socially indoors.
...except that my post utterly and completely demolishes the claim that "COVID rises in the summer."

And I am not making the claim that we're seeing massive surges anywhere in the US right now.

Try not to cherry pick, mmkay?

There are two seasonality factors....
Nope, just one. The data is quite clear that your "indoor" theory doesn't hold -- unless you believe that Idaho, Washington State and Oregon are scorching in the summer, and Illinois, Maryland and Virginia are not.

And again... We aren't seeing huge leaps in cases, despite states relaxing restrictions, and both Western and Southwestern states getting nailed with a massive heat wave. It's clear that the vaccine is significantly slowing the spread of COVID, even in states with lower vaccination rates.

And even that one may not be anywhere near as important as factors such as social distancing, vaccination rate, replication rate of specific variants, and so on. E.g. "people staying indoors" doesn't spread the virus, except when people start to associate with large groups indoors.

First, the media keeps changing their claims and examples as it suits them.
Whatever, dude. Nothing in my post cited the media.
 

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All CV's have a seasonality component, the difference here being that because CV is transmitted almost entirely indoors there is a correlation between when people are forced in doors due to cold or heat. Hence, no surprise that a smaller but still detectable rise in cases occur in the hottest states in the US in summer.
this one didn't go away in the summer...it kept right on forward....we have 600k deaths and we are into summer again.it is only slowing down now because of the vaccinations.
 
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