RCP updates Electoral College Map: 222 Biden, 125 Trump, 12 swing states

[Aunt Antifa]

So, to clarify, Andrew Cuomo didn’t “kill” anybody, because he’s not running for President.

Gotcha.

That a was world class ****ty clarification, Reub. You really ****ed that up.

 

[Aunt Antifa]

This isn't quite so easy, when it comes to seating electors. The states essentially have the last say in who they send. And I believe the SCOTUS will not get directly involved in elector matters once they become the purview of Congress.

I know it's Fox, but this is an interesting article below. I had another similar article from Forbes, but I lost it. I might post a thread on it, if I get a chance & get motivated anough.

(Fox News) President Pelosi? How a contested election brawl could unfold on Capitol Hill

BTW, I should also add this:

*I* do not believe Trump is signaling his intention to fight to retain power. I think he’s creating his post-election whine. That’s it.

Thank about Trump. Think about how he thinks. “We’ll never know who won” “The most rigged election of all time” these are the words of someone who knows he’s going to spend the rest of his life being asked about losing to Sleepy Joe.

“When you lost the election to Biden - “

“Excuse me! Excuse me. I did not lose to sleepy joe. EVeryone knows that election was rigged, everyone has admitted it. No one knows who won that election. I wasn’t going to put the country through anything so I stepped down, I did not concede.”

And the folks on here will be arguing with us about that. After they get over being crushed that their guy was just a massive loser who just wanted to go back to Mar A Lago and drool over young women in shorts.

 

[Chomsky]

Listen, I’m never sure what someone wants me to say when they keep insisting that the GOP is gonna successfully steal the election. Okay? I dunno. I think there is a fair amount of fear porn driven by PTSD from 2016. Trump has failed at every endeavor. Putin had to help carry him across the finish line. Also: our country’s infrastructure is garbage. Which is why both rigging things and making them work smoothly is equally problematic.

I guess ultimately I have no hot take on if the GOP successfully honest to god steals the election and Trump retains power despite losing. I have never been part of a soft coup before and not real sure what my response(s) should be or how I should prep for such a thing.

'Stealing the election' has many implication, most of which are overt. But there are a lot of little things that cause influence, and they can come to bear in a tight election. We only need to look at voter suppression, and recent Florida elections. If there's a lot of legal and other tie-ups putting the vote totals in question at the state level, the governors & legislatures will have a hand in it, including picking the electors if they can make the case. It has happened before, and is Constitutional. I think some of us don't realize just how fragile & fluid the Electoral College system actually is.

 

[ReubenSherr]

We have gone over this before multiple times.

According to RCP final electoral college map, they had Clinton at 272, Trump at 266. If you look at the non-toss-up map, they were accurate in 47 out of the 51 contests. They had Clinton winning Wisconsin, Michigan and Penn, and Trump winning Nevada. Wisconsin was the only state that was outside the margin of error territory.

So far this election cycle, we're seeing the swing states highly favor Biden. 9 out of the 12 are projected to go to Biden. A tight race wouldn't see Biden at 352 projections.

In the national popular vote, Biden is at 7%. Clinton was at 3%. This is yet another sign, its not a close race.

???

You’re comparing the RCP predictions from November 2016 to the RCP predictions in September 2020.

The race tightened up in 2016, it will tighten up here as well I think.

The momentum is in Trump’s direction, at least with the popular vote.

In October of 2016 BTW there were polls that had Clinton up by 10, 12, and even 14 points.

 

[Chomsky]

Sorry, Biden CAN'T"do without Florida".
He can't "do without" anything at all because Trump intends to leverage the full weight, power and force of the government to promote state sanctioned CHEATING by any means necessary, even to the point of promulgating actual civil war as the votes are made, tallied and counted. Together with all the help from Russia and any other Trump-friendly adversary in cahoots, Biden can't afford anything short of something resembling a 375 plus landslide.

That is why the Bloomberg offices, in deep slumber since primary season, just reawakened and committed a hundred million dollars to ensure a Biden victory IN Florida.

I might not be a very big fan of Mike Bloomberg but I respect the fact that he's a pretty savvy strategist and a move like this underlines some very valid concerns about a state which has played host to several instances of outright election tampering, such as the Brooks Brothers Riot which halted the 2000 Election vote recount in Florida at the behest of Roger Stone.

Biden needs a landslide convincing enough to cause Mitch McConnell, Karl Rove, Sean Hannity and Tucker Carlson to collectively lower themselves into a tub of warm water and slit their miserable wrists and bleed to death by their own hand.

In electoral terms he can, and in my opinion there's a reasonable shot he will lose FL. Trump has made pretty strong inroads into the Miami Cuban community. He will need to make-up for that by stealing some of Trump Caucasian retiree base, which I must admit he's made some progress.

 

[Chomsky]

BTW, I should also add this:

*I* do not believe Trump is signaling his intention to fight to retain power. I think he’s creating his post-election whine. That’s it.

Thank about Trump. Think about how he thinks. “We’ll never know who won” “The most rigged election of all time” these are the words of someone who knows he’s going to spend the rest of his life being asked about losing to Sleepy Joe.

“When you lost the election to Biden - “

“Excuse me! Excuse me. I did not lose to sleepy joe. EVeryone knows that election was rigged, everyone has admitted it. No one knows who won that election. I wasn’t going to put the country through anything so I stepped down, I did not concede.”

And the folks on here will be arguing with us about that. After they get over being crushed that their guy was just a massive loser who just wanted to go back to Mar A Lago and drool over young women in shorts.

I think he will definitely fight to retain power, though to what final degree I do not know. But when I see the same things you do, I see someone trying pretty damn hard to motivate their base.

 

[Court Jester]

He lost the pop vote by 3m.

Presidents aren't elected by popular votes, didn't you get the memo? Hillary having millions more extra votes in Blue states where Democrats outnumber Republican voters 4 to 1, and where she was going to get all those state's electoral votes anyway, means nothing to the final electoral count--- which wasn't even close really.

Having more popular votes in states you already have in the bag is like over filling the gas tank on your car and spilling many gallons of fuel on the ground. That spilled fuel will not make your car go any further on a tank of gas.

 

[BrotherFease]

???

You’re comparing the RCP predictions from November 2016 to the RCP predictions in September 2020.

The race tightened up in 2016, it will tighten up here as well I think.

The momentum is in Trump’s direction, at least with the popular vote.

All what I am pointing out is the state of race right now. The poster above is claiming that the polls were wrong in 2016. In reality, Wisconsin (Wisky as I call it) was the only surprise state. Nevada, Michigan, and Penn were within margin of error.

The polls may very well tightened up. Trump could logically win the debates and convince skeptical Americans to vote for him in 2020. We could also see an October surprise which benefits Trump.

I have also pointed here numerous times about the 1948 presidential election between Dewey and Truman. Dewey was leading in the polls, but then there was a late late break toward Truman. In 2016, there was late, late break toward Trump thanks to Clinton's email scandal.

We should always keep in mind that about 8-10% of Americans make their final decision really late in the game. We could see voters telling pollsters Biden, and then change their mind to Trump when they reached their polling location.

Personally I am reserving my official vote after the 3rd debate.

 

[ReubenSherr]

All what I am pointing out is the state of race right now. The poster above is claiming that the polls were wrong in 2016. In reality, Wisconsin (Wisky as I call it) was the only surprise state. Nevada, Michigan, and Penn were within margin of error.

The polls may very well tightened up. Trump could logically win the debates and convince skeptical Americans to vote for him in 2020. We could also see an October surprise which benefits Trump.

I have also pointed here numerous times about the 1948 presidential election between Dewey and Truman. Dewey was leading in the polls, but then there was a late late break toward Truman. In 2016, there was late, late break toward Trump thanks to Clinton's email scandal.

We should always keep in mind that about 8-10% of Americans make their final decision really late in the game. We could see voters telling pollsters Biden, and then change their mind to Trump when they reached their polling location.

Personally I am reserving my official vote after the 3rd debate.

Right, remember what happened to Dukakis.

The other factor to take into consideration is that millions of voters have hardly seen Biden (this year), his appearance at the DNC was relatively brief.

So the debates could definitely change the dynamics of this.

In terms of the RCP average, it was slightly narrower for Hillary four years back at this time, but there also may be more liberal polling firms this year. There are definitely MORE polling firms on RCP this year than there were four years ago, so it’s not necessarily a perfectly accurate comparison.

Back then, in October, there was a poll that had Hillary ahead by 14, one that had her ahead by 12, and one that had her ahead by 10.

 

[d0gbreath]

We shouldn't let this country go down the trump tubes. His anti-Midas touch is legendary.

 

[ALiberalModerate]

Right leaning poll averages?

Never in the history of public opinion polls on a presidential election, have polls been more meaningless than they are now... Far too many Trump supporters won't reveal that their voting for him out fear of retribution by the far left and their cancel culture.

.

Keep thinking that...

Basically what you are saying is you are banking on there being a large number of Trump voters that are ashamed to admit they will vote for such an utterly despicable human being.

 

[BrotherFease]

Right, remember what happened to Dukakis.

The other factor to take into consideration is that millions of voters have hardly seen Biden (this year), his appearance at the DNC was relatively brief.

So the debates could definitely change the dynamics of this.

In terms of the RCP average, it was slightly narrower for Hillary four years back at this time, but there also may be more liberal polling firms this year.

Back then, in October, there was a poll that had Hillary ahead by 14, one that had her ahead by 12, and one that had her ahead by 10.

I don't think Biden running a virtual front porch campaign is going to be a factor. That's just right-wing talking points memo. Historically, front porch campaigns have been extremely successful. I mean William Jennings Bryan ran three times for President and faced off against opponents who spent most of the campaign inside their home.

Back on September 15th of 2016, Clinton had a 1% lead in the national popular vote. Biden has a 7% lead.

Biden is in a much better position than Clinton was. Biden only really needs 48 more electoral college votes to victory. The pathway to victory is much more wide open. You also have to consider that Texas is in play, and that's a state which hasn't gone Democrat since Johnson.

You also see close polls in South Carolina and Montana too. When Republican stronghold states are struggling, you know your campaign is in trouble.

But like I said, Trump has plenty of opportunity to get back in the game.

 

[ReubenSherr]

Back on September 15th of 2016, Clinton had a 1% lead in the national popular vote. Biden has a 7% lead.

???

Three polls on September 15, 2016 had Hillary up by 6. Where did you get that figure?

By October, polls had Hillary up by 10, 12, 14 points.

It also appears that many new polling firms were added recently, mostly liberal from what I can tell.

 

[BrotherFease]

???

Three polls on September 15, 2016 had Hillary up by 6.

By October, polls had Hillary up by 10, 12, 14 points.

It also appears that many new polling firms were added recently, mostly liberal from what I can tell.

You can look at the website yourself:

RealClearPolitics - RCP National Average (2020 vs. 2016)

Sorry, it's not looking good for Trump at all. As I said before, watch out for the late-breakers.

 

[ReubenSherr]

You can look at the website yourself:

RealClearPolitics - RCP National Average (2020 vs. 2016)

Sorry, it's not looking good for Trump at all. As I said before, watch out for the late-breakers.

The next day, on September 15, 2016, three polls came out which had Hillary up by 6. Another poll had Hillary up by 5.

It’s on RCP, that 9/14 average must have been a fluke.

That internet only Reuters poll is currently messing up the RCP average BTW.

 

[BrotherFease]

The next day, on September 15, 2016, three polls came out which had Hillary up by 6. Another poll had Hillary up by 5.

It’s on RCP, that 9/14 average must have been a fluke.

This doesn't change the narrative that Trump is way behind in 2020. Biden is doing better than Clinton was in 2016.

 

[ReubenSherr]

This doesn't change the narrative that Trump is way behind in 2020. Biden is doing better than Clinton was in 2016.

Trump’s behind, not sure he’s “way behind”.

Let’s see what happens once that internet only Reuters poll clears out, and what happens after the first debate.

 

[Aunt Antifa]

I think he will definitely fight to retain power, though to what final degree I do not know. But when I see the same things you do, I see someone trying pretty damn hard to motivate their base.

I don’t think he cares. His team have kept him in a bubble for months, perhaps years. He has no grip on the same reality you and I share. He knows they’re marks. That’s as much as he thinks about them.

Case in point: know how some argue he needs to retain power cause he’s afraid of jail? Nah. He has spent his entire life avoiding any consequences. And he was validated by becoming potus. And then the GOP took Stormy’s place. This guy has no sense that anything is coming for him.

 

[BrotherFease]

Trump’s behind, not sure he’s “way behind”.

Let’s see what happens once that internet only Reuters poll clears out, and what happens after the first debate.

Look at it this way: Biden has 222 electoral college votes pretty much locked in. He needs 48 more electors to win. He is leading in 9 of the 12 swing states and a 7% lead in the national polls. Biden path to victory is pretty big. Trump has to win Florida, Ohio, Penn, and Texas in order to have a shot at winning the electoral college. We have yet to see any big movement for Trump.

 

[Chomsky]

I don’t think he cares. His team have kept him in a bubble for months, perhaps years. He has no grip on the same reality you and I share. He knows they’re marks. That’s as much as he thinks about them.

Case in point: know how some argue he needs to retain power cause he’s afraid of jail? Nah. He has spent his entire life avoiding any consequences. And he was validated by becoming potus. And then the GOP took Stormy’s place. This guy has no sense that anything is coming for him.

Wel, I must admit this: I aways saw his election as a P.R. ploy gone wrong. I don't think he entered the race intending to win. He was after the P.R. But he went with the flow, and here he now is!

 

[poweRob]

I don’t think he cares. His team have kept him in a bubble for months, perhaps years. He has no grip on the same reality you and I share. He knows they’re marks. That’s as much as he thinks about them.

Case in point: know how some argue he needs to retain power cause he’s afraid of jail? Nah. He has spent his entire life avoiding any consequences. And he was validated by becoming potus. And then the GOP took Stormy’s place. This guy has no sense that anything is coming for him.

I bet that perspective changes in him around November 4th - January 20th and we can expect some seriously erratic behavior growing thorughout that time frame from him.

 

[Aunt Antifa]

I bet that perspective changes in him around November 4th - January 20th and we can expect some seriously erratic behavior growing thorughout that time frame from him.

He’s going to **** us hard until Biden is sworn in. He is going to troll his own country and steal hand over fist. He will pardon whomever for whatever.

But I’m sticking by my prediction: he has been a loser his whole life. He runs from trouble. He isn’t anti war, he just doesn’t have the stones for it.

Started a loser, and his trajectory ain’t changing. You guys fret for me. I got this. We are gonna drink Champaign, **** our spouses, and cry in victory. I am gonna drown Trump voters in all the tears of patriotism and joy I can squirt out when Joe and Kamala seal the deal.

 

[poweRob]

He’s going to **** us hard until Biden is sworn in. He is going to troll his own country and steal hand over fist. He will pardon whomever for whatever.

But I’m sticking by my prediction: he has been a loser his whole life. He runs from trouble. He isn’t anti war, he just doesn’t have the stones for it.

Started a loser, and his trajectory ain’t changing. You guys fret for me. I got this. We are gonna drink Champaign, **** our spouses, and cry in victory. I am gonna drown Trump voters in all the tears of patriotism and joy I can squirt out when Joe and Kamala seal the deal.

He definitely is a loser. Daddy handed him hundreds of millions and he pissed it all away and to maintian treading water he got more and more illegal until he got neck deep in trouble with russians via Deutche Bank. I hope it all comes out in full sunlight some day and all the actors pay the price for it all.

As far as pardons... Tiger King. That's who my money is on. Dude has specifically asked trump for it and that dude's fame will allow for trump to create a noisy distraction pardoning that one.

 

[Aunt Antifa]

He definitely is a loser. Daddy handed him hundreds of millions and he pissed it all away and to maintian treading water he got more and more illegal until he got neck deep in trouble with russians via Deutche Bank. I hope it all comes out in full sunlight some day and all the actors pay the price for it all.

As far as pardons... Tiger King. That's who my money is on. Dude has specifically asked trump for it and that dude's fame will allow for trump to create a noisy distraction pardoning that one.

Wait. Wait. Is...no. Okay: would a 2nd Trump term be worth it for...Secretary of the Interior Tiger King!?? :O

TOTALLY ****ING KIDDING!

 

[Checkerboard Strangler]

'Stealing the election' has many implication, most of which are overt. But there are a lot of little things that cause influence, and they can come to bear in a tight election. We only need to look at voter suppression, and recent Florida elections. If there's a lot of legal and other tie-ups putting the vote totals in question at the state level, the governors & legislatures will have a hand in it, including picking the electors if they can make the case. It has happened before, and is Constitutional. I think some of us don't realize just how fragile & fluid the Electoral College system actually is.

Of course, this is NOT a SOFT coup, it is shaping up to be a coup on a level that resembles an unstable Latin American country controlled by an oligarchy that is fed up with detestable peasants seeking a fair shake.
And I expect no less than a hundred credible daily threats on Biden's life in the first hundred days if he wins.

Secret Service protection for Obama began after he received a death threat in 2007, while serving as the junior United States senator from Illinois and running for president. This marked the earliest time a candidate received such protection before being nominated.

Since Obama was inaugurated on January 20, several individuals and groups have made threats against the life of the President. The rate of threats against Obama has surged by 400% from the 3,000 a year or so under former President George W Bush, according to Ronald Kessler, author of In the Presidents Secret Service.

I do not believe it is any exaggeration to say that outlier militia movements and other right wing domestic terror operations are now receiving much more funding than ever before, and the online chatter about plans for civil war, widespread violence and attempts at overthrow has now risen to an almost deafening roar.
Elected Republican officials in both state legislatures and even Congress itself have issued threats, and some in Congress, like Matt Schea of Washington State, have even penned and distributed manifestos endorsing such ideas.

The openness and sense of impunity with which these open threats are enunciated reveals an undercurrent that is now transforming into a tidal wave of state sanctioned insurrection against the democratic process itself.