RCP updates Electoral College Map: 222 Biden, 125 Trump, 12 swing states

[Aunt Antifa]

Not only are they not shy, why would they be afraid to tell some nameless, faceless pollster on the phone who they support? But the polls went really wrong last time, and there's no reason to think it's right this time. I think polls should outlawed during campaign season. It influences too many people on how--or if--to vote. Let it be a surprise.

They will scream in the faces of people working in supermarkets over masks but they’re gonna back down over a *phone call* asking who they’re voting for?

Trump voters are as wackadoodle as their boy.

 

[MaryP]

They will scream in the faces of people working in supermarkets over masks but they’re gonna back down over a *phone call* asking who they’re voting for?

Trump voters are as wackadoodle as their boy.

Somehow, my phone number got to pollsters this year--it had been eons since I'd been polled, and so far I've been asked four times. I participated in two, and then told them I already gave at the office. At least two calls have been from the same firm. Are they double counting voters they have already gotten results from?

 

[Chomsky]

All what he needs is 270. If he's at 222. That's only 48 more electoral college votes to go.

He wins Wisconsin (10), Michigan (16), Penn (20) and NH (4), he's got enough to win.

If he wins Wisconsin (10), Michigan (16), Nevada (6), NH (4), Arizona (11) and the second district of Maine, he's got enough to win.

I realize all this. But notice I used the term, 'bellwether'. I'm designating PA a tipping-point state. If Biden takes it, I believe the general nationwide vote is such that he will win the election. Conversely if Trump wins it (PA), Biden will be in trouble in many of the other battle-grounds.

I base my theory on PA being a net +2.5 Red leaning state - in relation to the national average. Therefore if Trump takes PA, he is likely to take other 2.5 or 3 pt Red leaners, which includes battleground states Biden needs to prevail.

I see the electoral map as 50 states on a Blue-Red continuum, in relation to the national average. If Trump takes PA at +2.5 Red, I'm going to assume he will likely take all other states that are +2.5 Red or Redder. Simply add them up, and you have a rough idea of where the election wi be.

So mark my words: As goes PA, will likely go the election.

(This used to be said about MO, then OH, then FL. Now, I'm positing PA is the new bellwether state - at least for this election.)

 

[Chomsky]

That's why the polls nailed it in 2016.

.

They pretty much did. Within 1.1%. But in a very tight race, that 1.1% mad a huge electoral difference.

 

[Chomsky]

Whereas, the left might point and giggle at Trump supporter's much like the rude children do at the kids riding the short bus, Trump supporters are in no danger from them.

I would be more worried about what the right is going to do if Trump loses. He is already setting them up to cry foul and cry the election is rigged, if he loses. And those Trump folks have shown, time and time again, they will believe just about anything if it soothes their warped ideology. Even if it's the Liar-in-Chief telling them what they want to hear.

If you want quite an eye-opening eduction in the bolded matter, scan the public comment sections of some of the Trump media sites. It ain't pretty!

 

[Chomsky]

I hear you, and yeah I clench a little but I have two thoughts that pull me out of it:

-We have lawyers too. We have billionaires too. We have media too. We have platforms too. WE can fight too.
-The Trump team’s incompetence always outpaces their criminality.

The real concern I have, is we can't control the Republican governors & state legislatures. They are the ones who determine vote tabulation & logistics, and ultimately determine the electors sent to D.C.

 

[Aunt Antifa]

The real concern I have, is we can't control the Republican governors & state legislatures. They are the ones who determine vote tabulation & logistics, and ultimately determine the electors sent to D.C.

Correct. Which is why it’s good we have lawyers too.

 

[Captain America]

If you want quite an eye-opening eduction in the bolded matter, scan the public comment sections of some of the Trump media sites. It ain't pretty!

Hell, I read somewhere, the other day, Trump has already commented that he is "negotiating" for a "3rd term." I'll go see if I can find that on Google.

No sir, if Trump loses, and all indicator's shows that he will, I'm certain we can count on a significant amount of sore losers to get their panties in a bundle over it. As I said, he's already got his minions crying foul and the election hasn't even taken place yet.

It does not even make sense to a Trump supporter, nay, worshiper, that Trump could possibly lose even though just about every poll out there shows that they are the minority and more people are voting for Biden. The only real hope they have, unless something drastic changes, is for the EC to go their way.

But, in their mind, if Trump loses it will be because of election rigging, etc. Facts be damned. Facts have never really registered that well with the Trump crowd. They make up their own "facts."

 

[Grim17]

You could foolishly make stupid statements or you could educate yourself.

Stupid statements? Let me guess... You are talking about the nationwide popular vote compared to the nationwide polling?

News Flash: This discussion is about STATE polling.

In 2016:

North Carolina
Polls - Clinton +2-4%
Result - Trump +4%

Pennsylvania
Polls - Clinton +4-6%
Result - Trump +1%

Michigan
Polls - Clinton +5-9%
Result - Trump +1%

Wisconsin
Polls - Clinton +4-8%
Result - Trump +1%

Florida
Polls - Clinton +1-2%
Result - Trump +1%

Iowa
Polls - Trump +1-3%
Result - Trump +9%

Missouri
Polls - Trump +11-14%
Result - Trump +19%

Minnesota
Polls - Clinton +6-11%
Result - Clinton +1%

 

[Captain America]

I think Biden is just gonna win convincingly. It’s going to be very anti-climactic.

You’ll see.

Even a landslide victory will not convince the Trumptards the election was/is not rigged.

They are already receiving their talking-points in case Trump loses.

 

[Anagram]

Stupid statements? Let me guess... You are talking about the nationwide popular vote compared to the nationwide polling?

News Flash: This discussion is about STATE polling.

In 2016:

North Carolina
Polls - Clinton +2-4%
Result - Trump +4%

Pennsylvania
Polls - Clinton +4-6%
Result - Trump +1%

Michigan
Polls - Clinton +5-9%
Result - Trump +1%

Wisconsin
Polls - Clinton +4-8%
Result - Trump +1%

Florida
Polls - Clinton +1-2%
Result - Trump +1%

Iowa
Polls - Trump +1-3%
Result - Trump +9%

Missouri
Polls - Trump +11-14%
Result - Trump +19%

Minnesota
Polls - Clinton +6-11%
Result - Clinton +1%

Where did you get those numbers? It looks like you took the high rolls for Hillary's margins in most of those states to use for your averages and ignored the polls favorable to Trump.

 

[Piner]

These polls don't mean a thing. Get the **** out and vote.

 

[Aunt Antifa]

Even a landslide victory will not convince the Trumptards the election was/is not rigged.

They are already receiving their talking-points in case Trump loses.

I’m making my “I cannot pretend to care about Trump voters and their feels after we kick their disgusting nazi loser leader out of our WH” face.

Great face. You’d love it.

 

[MTAtech]

Right leaning poll averages?

Never in the history of public opinion polls on a presidential election, have polls been more meaningless than they are now... Far too many Trump supporters won't reveal that their voting for him out fear of retribution by the far left and their cancel culture.

.

How do you know this? Trump supporters don't seem shy to me. The boast their support on their cars and lawns.

 

[Captain America]

I’m making my “I cannot pretend to care about Trump voters and their feels after we kick their disgusting nazi loser leader out of our WH” face.

Great face. You’d love it.

Myself, I prefer to not get any egg on my face. I never thought he could possibly win a 1st term. We all know how that worked out.

I no longer have any faith in any poll or indicator's.

I would not bet a nickel on either one of the candidates.

People'z got'z to get off their ass and go vote. And the dems do need a landslide victory because they are not only running against Trump, they are running against the EC which has given the last two GOP presidents their victory with a minority vote. They would never win if the election was determined by a majority vote. There just aren't enough dumb-asses around to gain a majority. EC is the only hope they got.

 

[Aunt Antifa]

Myself, I prefer to not get any egg on my face. I never thought he could possibly win a 1st term. We all know how that worked out.

I no longer have any faith in any poll or indicator's.

I would not bet a nickel on either one of the candidates.

People'z got'z to get off their ass and go vote. And the dems do need a landslide victory because they are not only running against Trump, they are running against the EC which has given the last two GOP presidents their victory with a minority vote. They would never win if the election was determined by a majority vote. There just aren't enough dumb-asses around to gain a majority. EC is the only hope they got.

I have no fear of egg on my face. I didn’t believe TRump was winning before he killed 200k Americans in a pandemic. He is a historically unpopular and incompetent potus.

2016 was an outlier, not predictive.

 

[Chomsky]

Correct. Which is why it’s good we have lawyers too.

This isn't quite so easy, when it comes to seating electors. The states essentially have the last say in who they send. And I believe the SCOTUS will not get directly involved in elector matters once they become the purview of Congress.

I know it's Fox, but this is an interesting article below. I had another similar article from Forbes, but I lost it. I might post a thread on it, if I get a chance & get motivated anough.

(Fox News) President Pelosi? How a contested election brawl could unfold on Capitol Hill

 

[ReubenSherr]

Keep in mind RCP is a right-leaning site and they like to see Republican pollsters to even out the alleged left-leaning bias in polling.

They like to see Republican pollsters?

Lol at least they don’t weight the Republican pollsters up, and the Democratic pollsters down, like a certain other site people use with a three digit number as its name.

 

[ReubenSherr]

2016 was an outlier, not predictive.

The election you’re labeling an outlier is the only other election Trump has participated in lol.

BTW what’s your feeling on how many Americans Andrew Cuomo killed? Wait, he’s a Democrat, never mind, that won’t help you.

 

[Aunt Antifa]

This isn't quite so easy, when it comes to seating electors. The states essentially have the last say in who they send. And I believe the SCOTUS will not get directly involved in elector matters once they become the purview of Congress.

I know it's Fox, but this is an interesting article below. I had another similar article from Forbes, but I lost it. I might post a thread on it, if I get a chance & get motivated anough.

(Fox News) President Pelosi? How a contested election brawl could unfold on Capitol Hill

Listen, I’m never sure what someone wants me to say when they keep insisting that the GOP is gonna successfully steal the election. Okay? I dunno. I think there is a fair amount of fear porn driven by PTSD from 2016. Trump has failed at every endeavor. Putin had to help carry him across the finish line. Also: our country’s infrastructure is garbage. Which is why both rigging things and making them work smoothly is equally problematic.

I guess ultimately I have no hot take on if the GOP successfully honest to god steals the election and Trump retains power despite losing. I have never been part of a soft coup before and not real sure what my response(s) should be or how I should prep for such a thing.

 

[Aunt Antifa]

The election you’re labeling an outlier is the only other election Trump has participated in lol.

BTW what’s your feeling on how many Americans Andrew Cuomo killed? Wait, he’s a Democrat, never mind, that won’t help you.

You mean the election where a reality TV game show host won on an EC quirk wasn’t an outlier? I don’t think I agree with that, Reub.

Andrew Cuomo isn’t running for president. So no, nothing he does will help me.

 

[BrotherFease]

That's why the polls nailed it in 2016.
.

We have gone over this before multiple times.

According to RCP final electoral college map, they had Clinton at 272, Trump at 266. If you look at the non-toss-up map, they were accurate in 47 out of the 51 contests. They had Clinton winning Wisconsin, Michigan and Penn, and Trump winning Nevada. Wisconsin was the only state that was outside the margin of error territory.

So far this election cycle, we're seeing the swing states highly favor Biden. 9 out of the 12 are projected to go to Biden. A tight race wouldn't see Biden at 352 projections.

In the national popular vote, Biden is at 7%. Clinton was at 3%. This is yet another sign, its not a close race.

 

[ReubenSherr]

Andrew Cuomo isn’t running for president. So no, nothing he does will help me.

So, to clarify, Andrew Cuomo didn’t “kill” anybody, because he’s not running for President.

Gotcha.

 

[Chomsky]

They pretty much did outside of some states in the Upper Midwest. Is that the only place shy Trump voters live? And even there they did not really overestimate Hillary's vote share, but underestimated Trump's with a big number of undecideds. Only one pollster in September 2016 onward found Hillary with 50% of the vote in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, or Michigan and that pollster's most recent poll before the election had Hillary at 46%.

Comparing that to the polls this year where Biden has over 50% in 2/3 September Pennsylvania polls, 1/3 September Michigan polls, and 6/8 September Wisconsin polls. This does not necessarily mean that there will not be some polling error in favor of Trump. Sometimes polling errors happen. But I do not think the evidence for shy Trump voters is very strong looking at 2016. and the polling in the states where the polls did miss their margins the most in 2016 shows some fairly big differences between the polls then and now.

I think the effect you described has less to do with 'shy' voters, and more to do with 13% 'undecided' going into the booths, with their breaking 2:1 for Trump. The unusually large number of undecideds broke for Trump in the same manner they usually break against the incumbent. Except this time, Trump is the incumbent, whereas in 2016 HRC ran as a pseudo-incumbant.

 

[Checkerboard Strangler]

Biden can do without FL, whereas Trump cannot.

Sorry, Biden CAN'T "do without Florida".
He can't "do without" anything at all because Trump intends to leverage the full weight, power and force of the government to promote state sanctioned CHEATING by any means necessary, even to the point of promulgating actual civil war as the votes are made, tallied and counted. Together with all the help from Russia and any other Trump-friendly adversary in cahoots, Biden can't afford anything short of something resembling a 375 plus landslide.

That is why the Bloomberg offices, in deep slumber since primary season, just reawakened and committed a hundred million dollars to ensure a Biden victory IN Florida.

I might not be a very big fan of Mike Bloomberg but I respect the fact that he's a pretty savvy strategist and a move like this underlines some very valid concerns about a state which has played host to several instances of outright election tampering, such as the Brooks Brothers Riot which halted the 2000 Election vote recount in Florida at the behest of Roger Stone.

Biden needs a landslide convincing enough to cause Mitch McConnell, Karl Rove, Sean Hannity and Tucker Carlson to collectively lower themselves into a tub of warm water and slit their miserable wrists and bleed to death by their own hand.