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RCP updates Electoral College Map: 222 Biden, 125 Trump, 12 swing states

BrotherFease

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Just an update for everybody. RCP has changed their Electoral college map. Minnesota (10) has moved into the lean Biden column. Missouri (10) has moved into the lean Trump column. There are now 12 swing states, according to their algorithm.

Here are the standings for those 12:

Wisconsin - 7% Biden
Michigan - 4% Biden
Ohio - 2% Biden
Penn - 4% Biden
Florida - 2% Biden
Georgia - 1% Trump
North Carolina - 1% Biden
Arizona - 5% Biden
NH - 6% Biden
Iowa - 2% Trump
Nevada - 6% Biden
Texas - 4% Trump

Out of the 12 swing states, Biden is leading in 9 of them.

If we look at their no toss-up map, they have Biden 352, Trump 186.

Keep in mind RCP is a right-leaning site and they like to see Republican pollsters to even out the alleged left-leaning bias in polling.
 

Chomsky

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Just an update for everybody. RCP has changed their Electoral college map. Minnesota (10) has moved into the lean Biden column. Missouri (10) has moved into the lean Trump column. There are now 12 swing states, according to their algorithm.

Here are the standings for those 12:

Wisconsin - 7% Biden
Michigan - 4% Biden
Ohio - 2% Biden
Penn - 4% Biden
Florida - 2% Biden
Georgia - 1% Trump
North Carolina - 1% Biden
Arizona - 5% Biden
NH - 6% Biden
Iowa - 2% Trump
Nevada - 6% Biden
Texas - 4% Trump

Out of the 12 swing states, Biden is leading in 9 of them.

If we look at their no toss-up map, they have Biden 352, Trump 186.

Keep in mind RCP is a right-leaning site and they like to see Republican pollsters to even out the alleged left-leaning bias in polling.
Well the changes net well for Biden, I think. Missouri moving away from him is totally expected. Whereas MN moving towards him is very welcome! That's a big deal.

Sad to see FL moving more towards Trump. To Dems, FL recently seems to be the piñata they swing away at, but always miss. I think they'll likely miss this year as well, but it will be another nail-biter.

Biden can do without FL, whereas Trump cannot. I think it's PA that will be this year's bellwether, and lucky for us they are amongst the earliest reporters. If Biden looks good in PA on the 3rd, regardless of the vote count remaining, the election will be his. But I suspect the expected quick Red report, followed by a Blue catch-up, is what we'll see.
 

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Grim17

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Just an update for everybody. RCP has changed their Electoral college map. Minnesota (10) has moved into the lean Biden column. Missouri (10) has moved into the lean Trump column. There are now 12 swing states, according to their algorithm.

Here are the standings for those 12:

Wisconsin - 7% Biden
Michigan - 4% Biden
Ohio - 2% Biden
Penn - 4% Biden
Florida - 2% Biden
Georgia - 1% Trump
North Carolina - 1% Biden
Arizona - 5% Biden
NH - 6% Biden
Iowa - 2% Trump
Nevada - 6% Biden
Texas - 4% Trump

Out of the 12 swing states, Biden is leading in 9 of them.

If we look at their no toss-up map, they have Biden 352, Trump 186.

Keep in mind RCP is a right-leaning site and they like to see Republican pollsters to even out the alleged left-leaning bias in polling.

Right leaning poll averages?

Never in the history of public opinion polls on a presidential election, have polls been more meaningless than they are now... Far too many Trump supporters won't reveal that their voting for him out fear of retribution by the far left and their cancel culture.

.
 

Captain Adverse

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Just an update for everybody. RCP has changed their Electoral college map. Minnesota (10) has moved into the lean Biden column. Missouri (10) has moved into the lean Trump column. There are now 12 swing states, according to their algorithm.

Here are the standings for those 12:

Wisconsin - 7% Biden
Michigan - 4% Biden
Ohio - 2% Biden
Penn - 4% Biden
Florida - 2% Biden
Georgia - 1% Trump
North Carolina - 1% Biden
Arizona - 5% Biden
NH - 6% Biden
Iowa - 2% Trump
Nevada - 6% Biden
Texas - 4% Trump

Out of the 12 swing states, Biden is leading in 9 of them.

If we look at their no toss-up map, they have Biden 352, Trump 186.

Keep in mind RCP is a right-leaning site and they like to see Republican pollsters to even out the alleged left-leaning bias in polling.

And?

For the thousandth time with such posts from members of this Forum, I have to ask...who are you trying to convince?

Back in 2016, based on ALL reports I expected Trump to lose. I still voted for him.

Here in 2020 many seem to expect him to lose.

As with 2016, I don't know if he will win or lose, but I will STILL vote for him. :shrug:
 
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BrotherFease

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Well the changes net well for Biden, I think. Missouri moving away from him is totally expected. Whereas MN moving towards him is very welcome! That's a big deal.

Sad to see FL moving more towards Trump. To Dems, FL recently seems to be the piñata they swing away at, but always miss. I think they'll likely miss this year as well, but it will be another nail-biter.

Biden can do without FL, whereas Trump cannot. I think it's PA that will be this year's bellwether, and lucky for us they are amongst the earliest reporters. If Biden looks good in PA on the 3rd, regardless of the vote count remaining, the election will be his. But I suspect the expected quick Red report, followed by a Blue catch-up, is what we'll see.

All what he needs is 270. If he's at 222. That's only 48 more electoral college votes to go.

He wins Wisconsin (10), Michigan (16), Penn (20) and NH (4), he's got enough to win.

If he wins Wisconsin (10), Michigan (16), Nevada (6), NH (4), Arizona (11) and the second district of Maine, he's got enough to win.
 

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Congratulations to the Dems.

Their four-year war against the President has paid off.

In just 49 more days, the Dems will take back the Executive Mansion and probably both Houses.

There will be wild celebrations in the street as the BLM-friendly Dems prepare to take back power and transform this nation beyond anyone's imagination.

Next January will be the most joyous and biggest inauguration crowd ever, even bigger than in 2009. People will be dancing, singing, and weeping as Mr. Joseph R. Biden, Jr., and Ms. Kamala D. Harris appear at the Capitol.
 

Aunt Antifa

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Right leaning poll averages?

Never in the history of public opinion polls on a presidential election, have polls been more meaningless than they are now... Far too many Trump supporters won't reveal that their voting for him out fear of retribution by the far left and their cancel culture.

.

There is no such thing as shy Trump voters. This is fantasy. Christmas isn’t coming.
 

BrotherFease

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And?

For the thousandth time with such posts from members of this Forum, I have to ask...who are you trying to convince?

Back in 2016, based on ALL reports I expected Trump to lose. I still voted for him.

Here in 2020 many seem to expect him to lose.

As with 2016, I don't know if he will win or lose, but I will STILL vote for him. :shrug:

Who said I am trying to "convince" anymore? I am just looking at the state of the race.
 

Aunt Antifa

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Congratulations to the Dems.

Their four-year war against the President has paid off.

In just 49 more days, the Dems will take back the Executive Mansion and probably both Houses.

There will be wild celebrations in the street as the BLM-friendly Dems prepare to take back power and transform this nation beyond anyone's imagination.

Next January will be the most joyous and biggest inauguration crowd ever, even bigger than in 2009. People will be dancing, singing, and weeping as Mr. Joseph R. Biden, Jr., and Ms. Kamala D. Harris appear at the Capitol.

Actually, not even close. We have a gigantic mess to clean up. Same as the last time we “celebrated” when a Republican left office.
 

Aunt Antifa

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That's why the polls nailed it in 2016.

.

He lost the pop vote by 3m. And then 2018 happened and the GOP were swept out of the House with record turn out on both sides, you guys just got swallowed whole.

Your shy Trump voters are so shy there doesn’t seem to be a meaningfully statistical means to prove they exist whether via polling or voting.

Besides, it’s so weird that ya’ll think it’s just a matter of you showing up. Like there isn’t a super majority mobilized against Trump. Enthusiasm *is* certainly with Trump! ;)
 

Captain America

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Right leaning poll averages?

Never in the history of public opinion polls on a presidential election, have polls been more meaningless than they are now... Far too many Trump supporters won't reveal that their voting for him out fear of retribution by the far left and their cancel culture.

.

Whereas, the left might point and giggle at Trump supporter's much like the rude children do at the kids riding the short bus, Trump supporters are in no danger from them.

I would be more worried about what the right is going to do if Trump loses. He is already setting them up to cry foul and cry the election is rigged, if he loses. And those Trump folks have shown, time and time again, they will believe just about anything if it soothes their warped ideology. Even if it's the Liar-in-Chief telling them what they want to hear.
 

poweRob

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Just an update for everybody. RCP has changed their Electoral college map. Minnesota (10) has moved into the lean Biden column. Missouri (10) has moved into the lean Trump column. There are now 12 swing states, according to their algorithm.

Here are the standings for those 12:

Wisconsin - 7% Biden
Michigan - 4% Biden
Ohio - 2% Biden
Penn - 4% Biden
Florida - 2% Biden
Georgia - 1% Trump
North Carolina - 1% Biden
Arizona - 5% Biden
NH - 6% Biden
Iowa - 2% Trump
Nevada - 6% Biden
Texas - 4% Trump

Out of the 12 swing states, Biden is leading in 9 of them.

If we look at their no toss-up map, they have Biden 352, Trump 186.

Keep in mind RCP is a right-leaning site and they like to see Republican pollsters to even out the alleged left-leaning bias in polling.

If Florida goes Biden it's all over. If it goes to trump, this entire election is going to boil down to Pennsylvania.
 

Aunt Antifa

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If Florida goes Biden it's all over. If it goes to trump, this entire election is going to boil down to Pennsylvania.

I think Biden is just gonna win convincingly. It’s going to be very anti-climactic.

You’ll see.
 

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That's why the polls nailed it in 2016.

.

They pretty much did outside of some states in the Upper Midwest. Is that the only place shy Trump voters live? And even there they did not really overestimate Hillary's vote share, but underestimated Trump's with a big number of undecideds. Only one pollster in September 2016 onward found Hillary with 50% of the vote in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, or Michigan and that pollster's most recent poll before the election had Hillary at 46%.

Comparing that to the polls this year where Biden has over 50% in 2/3 September Pennsylvania polls, 1/3 September Michigan polls, and 6/8 September Wisconsin polls. This does not necessarily mean that there will not be some polling error in favor of Trump. Sometimes polling errors happen. But I do not think the evidence for shy Trump voters is very strong looking at 2016. and the polling in the states where the polls did miss their margins the most in 2016 shows some fairly big differences between the polls then and now.
 

poweRob

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Right leaning poll averages?

Never in the history of public opinion polls on a presidential election, have polls been more meaningless than they are now... Far too many Trump supporters won't reveal that their voting for him out fear of retribution by the far left and their cancel culture.

.

Always funny watching people drop into a thread because it's so meaningful that to go on about how the topic is so meaningless.
 

poweRob

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And?

For the thousandth time with such posts from members of this Forum, I have to ask...who are you trying to convince?

And as I've already told you, posting stats in a political doesn't mean they are trying to convince anyone.
 

poweRob

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I think Biden is just gonna win convincingly. It’s going to be very anti-climactic.

You’ll see.

I think in reality the support you are talking about is absolutely true. What I'm concerned with is how successful the dirty republican election counting tricks will be.
 

Aunt Antifa

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I think in reality the support you are talking about is absolutely true. What I'm concerned with is how successful the dirty republican election counting tricks will be.

I hear you, and yeah I clench a little but I have two thoughts that pull me out of it:

-We have lawyers too. We have billionaires too. We have media too. We have platforms too. WE can fight too.
-The Trump team’s incompetence always outpaces their criminality.
 

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Just an update for everybody. RCP has changed their Electoral college map. Minnesota (10) has moved into the lean Biden column. Missouri (10) has moved into the lean Trump column. There are now 12 swing states, according to their algorithm.

Here are the standings for those 12:

Wisconsin - 7% Biden
Michigan - 4% Biden
Ohio - 2% Biden
Penn - 4% Biden
Florida - 2% Biden
Georgia - 1% Trump
North Carolina - 1% Biden
Arizona - 5% Biden
NH - 6% Biden
Iowa - 2% Trump
Nevada - 6% Biden
Texas - 4% Trump

Out of the 12 swing states, Biden is leading in 9 of them.

If we look at their no toss-up map, they have Biden 352, Trump 186.

Keep in mind RCP is a right-leaning site and they like to see Republican pollsters to even out the alleged left-leaning bias in polling.

I like this analysis today by Cook:
Trump's Ceiling Is Too Low for Him to Be Reelected | The Cook Political Report
 

W_Heisenberg

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Right leaning poll averages?

Never in the history of public opinion polls on a presidential election, have polls been more meaningless than they are now... Far too many Trump supporters won't reveal that their voting for him out fear of retribution by the far left and their cancel culture.

.

They should feel fear for being called out for being evil pieces of crap.

This is the administration they support, this is the evil Trump is responsible for:

  • forcing immigrant women to undergone hysterectomies.
  • kidnapping children from their parents at the border.
  • refusing to confront Putin for paying bounties to the Taliban to kill American soldiers.
  • knowing the dangers of Covid-19 and subsequently lying about it by playing down the dangers and also not doing enough to combat the pandemic, resulting in the unnecessary deaths of tens of thousands of American citizens.
  • whisking protesters off the streets in unmarked cars by unidentified federal agents in order to intimidate and threaten Trump's political opponents.
  • coercing a foreign government into helping him win re-election in 2020.
  • obstructing justice.
  • suppressing the votes of the supporters of Trump's political opponents.

OF COURSE one should feel embarrassed and ashamed and not want to show their face to the world if they supported such evil.
 

MaryP

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There is no such thing as shy Trump voters. This is fantasy. Christmas isn’t coming.


Not only are they not shy, why would they be afraid to tell some nameless, faceless pollster on the phone who they support? But the polls went really wrong last time, and there's no reason to think it's right this time. I think polls should outlawed during campaign season. It influences too many people on how--or if--to vote. Let it be a surprise.
 

poweRob

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I hear you, and yeah I clench a little but I have two thoughts that pull me out of it:

-We have lawyers too. We have billionaires too. We have media too. We have platforms too. WE can fight too.
-The Trump team’s incompetence always outpaces their criminality.

The scenario that freaks me out, Trump gets Florida and Penn... Biden lands AZ. This is a very likley 269-269 tie.

Im in the 270 to win electoral map all the time flushing out various scenarios.
 
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