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Paul Ryan says he's not ready to support Trump

Chomsky

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Whoa! What's this? This sure caught me by surprise! Paul Ryan says he's not ready to support Trump

The backstory: How Ryan decided to ditch Trump

And some general background reference: House Republicans fear Trump effect

Not to be outdone, Mr. Trump responded with this:

"- MAY 05, 2016 -

DONALD J. TRUMP RESPONDS TO SPEAKER PAUL RYAN

"I am not ready to support Speaker Ryan's agenda. Perhaps in the future we can work together and come to an agreement about what is best for the American people. They have been treated so badly for so long that it is about time for politicians to put them first!"


Donald J. Trump"


Source: Trump.com: Donald Trump Statement on Paul Ryan

---

So what are we to make of it?

After party chairman Reince Priebus declared Mr. Trump "the presumptive nominee" immediately after Sen Cruz' concession speech, I thought the floodgates of support would open to Mr. Trump. Apparently not.

I do find it interesting that this comes the day after Mr. Trump announces he will not self-fund his campaign. Could this be related? Is the GOP establishment attempting to limit or bargain with Trump, before allowing access to their donor base?

Or could they be considering throwing-in-the-towel on Trump & the 2016 Presidency, and isolating their down-ticket races by running against Trump? Could Ryan subsequently be looking to running (and saving the party for the establishment) in 2020?

Crazy ideas above, but it's a crazy cycle!

Actually, I'm thinking this is a little less hyperbolic than the above, and believe the nomination and subsequent GOP capitulation all went down too fast for the establishment; so Spkr Ryan decided to freeze the action. His actions could serve the tri-fold purpose of: 1] freezing Trump from further access to party resources. 2] giving establishment members a bit more time to remain uncommitted while they check their pulses and strategize. 3] while also putting Trump on notice that the party is still in control of the show.

What says you?
 

TurtleDude

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I think the most obvious explanation is that if Trump loses Ryan can claim he's not tied to the fail

the more disturbing one is he's a sore loser and is putting his butt hurt ahead of his party
 

Chomsky

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I think the most obvious explanation is that if Trump loses Ryan can claim he's not tied to the fail

the more disturbing one is he's a sore loser and is putting his butt hurt ahead of his party
Some CNN commentary is now saying this is a way to give cover to down-ticket races, where the candidates can choose to say, "I'm a Republican, but I'm a Ryan guy".

If so, it's interesting that we might start seeing a resurgence in split-ticket voting. No one seems to do that anymore, and I'm all for the electorate more greatly discerning their ballot!
 

Hawkeye10

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Some CNN commentary is now saying this is a way to give cover to down-ticket races, where the candidates can choose to say, "I'm a Republican, but I'm a Ryan guy".

If so, it's interesting that we might start seeing a resurgence in split-ticket voting. No one seems to do that anymore, and I'm all for the electorate more greatly discerning their ballot!

Which might be a plan that Ryan and Don cooked up weeks ago.

We are in the big leagues now.

Seriously.
 

Orly?

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The establishment guys the voters are so fed up with aren't endorsing the anti-establishment guy who just trounced them all? No way..
 

Hawkeye10

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The establishment guys the voters are so fed up with aren't endorsing the anti-establishment guy who just trounced them all? No way..

Ryan is a homeboy, I am from Rockford, I refuse to believe that he is a stupid mother****er.



EDIT: But could be.
 

Chomsky

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Which might be a plan that Ryan and Don cooked up weeks ago.

We are in the big leagues now.

Seriously.
My gut still says this might be tied to financing.

On Morning Joe, Trump mentioned he wan't crazy about selling off properties to raise the $1.0-1.5B he'll need. That makes sense. I very severely doubt he's liquid to 1.5B, and he doesn't want throw that kind of money at it even if he had it. I don't know enough about this to know if Trump can raise that kind of money without the GOP donor base, or even if the donors want him. It might be the donors running the show here.
 

Riveroaks

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I know ... this is stunning.

Not only Ryan, but also GHWB, GWB, McCain, and Romney.

Practically a palace coup against Trump.
 

Redress

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I think the most obvious explanation is that if Trump loses Ryan can claim he's not tied to the fail

the more disturbing one is he's a sore loser and is putting his butt hurt ahead of his party

It is multiple things. One is it is a negotiation ploy(by both of them). Trump really does need Ryan, and Ryan will most likely be ready to support Trump at some point. Between now and then, they want agenda concessions, and so you get this public tiff. Ryan has a better hand, Trump needs him more than Ryan needs Trump(though not by much), but it will get worked out.

It is also a way to protect and separate people downticket from Trump. Republicans in Washington and state capitals are much more worried about the prospect of Trump at the top of the ticket costing seats for republicans further down, than they are of a Trump presidency. Democrats plan to exploit Trump at the top of the ticket in a big way too, as one of the ads the Clinton campaign released today made clear. What Ryan is doing is paving the way for downticket candidates to not be as connected to Trump as they might be.

I think he is also sending a message letting Trump know that republican support is not his for the taking, he has to earn it.

However, in the long run, republicans need a happy Trump. He is going to be the heart and soul of their fundraising this year. They are going to have to court him at some level.
 

Hawkeye10

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My gut still says this might be tied to financing.

On Morning Joe, Trump mentioned he wan't crazy about selling off properties to raise the $1.0-1.5B he'll need. That makes sense. I very severely doubt he's liquid to 1.5B, and he doesn't want throw that kind of money at it even if he had it. I don't know enough about this to know if Trump can raise that kind of money without the GOP donor base, or even if the donors want him. It might be the donors running the show here.

For sure it would hurt Trump bad to pay that kind of money, it would kill what he had planned to leave his kids, and I dont think that he is going to put this gambit ahead of his kids, he is not a dick. But all he needs is 3 guys. And if anyone can do it Don can.
 

Redress

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My gut still says this might be tied to financing.

On Morning Joe, Trump mentioned he wan't crazy about selling off properties to raise the $1.0-1.5B he'll need. That makes sense. I very severely doubt he's liquid to 1.5B, and he doesn't want throw that kind of money at it even if he had it. I don't know enough about this to know if Trump can raise that kind of money without the GOP donor base, or even if the donors want him. It might be the donors running the show here.

Between now and the convention(and to an extent after), Trump will spend the majority of his time fundraising, not just for himself but for the party.
 

Orly?

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Huckabee scolds them..
 

Hawkeye10

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It is multiple things. One is it is a negotiation ploy(by both of them). Trump really does need Ryan, and Ryan will most likely be ready to support Trump at some point. Between now and then, they want agenda concessions, and so you get this public tiff. Ryan has a better hand, Trump needs him more than Ryan needs Trump(though not by much), but it will get worked out.

It is also a way to protect and separate people downticket from Trump. Republicans in Washington and state capitals are much more worried about the prospect of Trump at the top of the ticket costing seats for republicans further down, than they are of a Trump presidency. Democrats plan to exploit Trump at the top of the ticket in a big way too, as one of the ads the Clinton campaign released today made clear. What Ryan is doing is paving the way for downticket candidates to not be as connected to Trump as they might be.

I think he is also sending a message letting Trump know that republican support is not his for the taking, he has to earn it.

However, in the long run, republicans need a happy Trump. He is going to be the heart and soul of their fundraising this year. They are going to have to court him at some level.

Ya right. The Establishment can go FVCK themselves. Trump wins and loses with the people, and if he wins these establishment pukes have two choices:

1) work for America

2) lose their heads(Figuratively OK!)

Sorry people, this is the cold reality.

IT'S COFFEE TIME!

Smells great!

Seriously!
 

Chomsky

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It is multiple things. One is it is a negotiation ploy(by both of them). Trump really does need Ryan, and Ryan will most likely be ready to support Trump at some point. Between now and then, they want agenda concessions, and so you get this public tiff. Ryan has a better hand, Trump needs him more than Ryan needs Trump(though not by much), but it will get worked out.

It is also a way to protect and separate people downticket from Trump. Republicans in Washington and state capitals are much more worried about the prospect of Trump at the top of the ticket costing seats for republicans further down, than they are of a Trump presidency. Democrats plan to exploit Trump at the top of the ticket in a big way too, as one of the ads the Clinton campaign released today made clear. What Ryan is doing is paving the way for downticket candidates to not be as connected to Trump as they might be.

I think he is also sending a message letting Trump know that republican support is not his for the taking, he has to earn it.

However, in the long run, republicans need a happy Trump. He is going to be the heart and soul of their fundraising this year. They are going to have to court him at some level.
Hell, if I had known you were going to do such an excellent job analyzing this, I woulda' let *you* write the OP commentary! :mrgreen:
 

Hawkeye10

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True, the 3rd most powerful man in the Federal Government. However the other 4 obviously agree with and support Ryan in this therefore it looks GOP-wide not just personal between Ryan and Trump.

Old man Bush was throwing his footwear at the TV when Trump was on in OCT, long before Ryan had thought a word on this. And Romney? Not having him on your team is a plus.
 
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Redress

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Ya right. The Establishment can go FVCK themselves. Trump wins and loses with the people, and if he wins these establishment pukes have two choices:

1) work for America

2) lose their heads(Figuratively OK!)

Sorry people, this is the cold reality.

IT'S COFFEE TIME!

Smells great!

Seriously!

Like it or not, Trump has to work with the adults in Washington. Throwing a hissy won't get him what he needs, and he does need alot from them.
 

Riveroaks

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Old man Bush was throwing his footwear at the TV when Trump was on in OCT, before Ryan had thought a word on this. And Romney? Not having him on your team is a plus.

True, yes, but the 5 of them are definitely united, and they are the crème de la crème of the GOP even though Romney is sour crème.

McConnell was the only missing king pin but I know he agrees with Ryan because he said so before when the Trump gaffs first began to appear on tv.
 

Riveroaks

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I think the main problem that Trump has is that he has been ultra rich his whole life so he has never had to learn to think before he opens his mouth before.

Now this is the first time where he is not in full control of everything around him.

Before he has always had daddy's money. But now he is playing with real political and military power and daddy's money can't help him with that.

Another thing I don't think has occurred to Trump is that Ryan can impeach him and McConnell can try him with Roberts as presiding judge.

Trump has no idea what that is like.

Trump has been a frat boy his entire life right up to this moment in history.
 

Hawkeye10

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Like it or not, Trump has to work with the adults in Washington. Throwing a hissy won't get him what he needs, and he does need alot from them.

If Trump comes into office it will be because of the Army that put him there. It will be "work for America or else **** you, you get flushed".

The Army will confirm this.
 

Hawkeye10

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True, yes, but the 5 of them are definitely united, and they are the crème de la crème of the GOP even though Romney is sour crème.

McConnell was the only missing king pin but I know he agrees with Ryan because he said so before when the Trump gaffs first began to appear on tv.

Given how poorly the party has proven to operate you choose to assume that these guys have a coordinated plan??!!?!?!?!?!?

OK.....


"ASSUME...this means to make...".
 
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