Nuclear war

[rickc]

if NATO decided Putin's human rights violations warranted intervention and they established a no fly zone over Ukraine would Putin resort to nuclear war?

 

[BirdinHand]

Let's not even consider the option. No NATO intervention. (Answered poll incorrectly - I do think Putin would go nuclear - hence why I do not see NATO intervention as an option)

 

[Rickeroo]

I don't think so. Putin loves Mother Russia. He knows it would be destroyed utterly.

 

[Cordelier]

Yes, he would. So would we. That's how deterrence works.

 

[Credence]

I did not answer the poll. The reason NATO / US did not establish a no fly zone is because they would have to enforce it by shooting down a Russian plane. Should that happen and we fired the first shot, you damn right Putin would use nuclear weapons and NY would be the first target. I understand Zelensky wants a no fly zone established to protect his citizens however Biden and the other countries of NATO have to protect their citizens too MOO

On a side note; is the board slow or is it me?

 

[MamboDervish]

if NATO decided Putin's human rights violations warranted intervention and they established a no fly zone over Ukraine would Putin resort to nuclear war?

That's entirely outside of NATO's purview and charter, so it's a fantasy not even worth exploring. The only no-fly zone NATO will ever attempt to enforce will be over NATO countries - which is just as it should be.

 

[Arkantos]

Nuclear war... not happening. NATO is not stepping a foot in Ukraine.

Nuke Ukraine to end a frustrating war for Russia? I think so.

 

[phoenix2020]

If NATO intervened in Ukraine, I do not believe that would directly trigger a nuclear exchange. Such a conflict would be, ultimately, yet another in a long line of proxy wars that resulted in great harm and damage to many, but no nuclear detonations. What it would do, unfortunately, is put NATO forces potentially within miles of Russian territory, and a conflict that spills into Russian soil may well create the pretext for a nuclear exchange.

I think a similar analogue would be the United States hypothetically launching a land invasion and overthrow of the entirety of Cuba. Russia could intervene, even directly with its troops on Cuban soil, and I don't think that would drive us to a nuclear exchange in this day and age. However were that war to spill over to Florida's coastal waters or the Florida Keys? Different story.

 

[Questerr]

if NATO decided Putin's human rights violations warranted intervention and they established a no fly zone over Ukraine would Putin resort to nuclear war?

From that step alone? Probably not.

 

[Noodlegawd]

Let's not even consider the option. No NATO intervention. (Answered poll incorrectly - I do think Putin would go nuclear - hence why I do not see NATO intervention as an option)

So what about when he attacks Poland, Latvia or Lithuania? If you think he's sufficiently unhinged to use nukes if we intervene to stop his precious little invasion, you must naturally allow for the possibility that he won't stop his invasion in Ukraine.

 

[BirdinHand]

So what about when he attacks Poland, Latvia or Lithuania? If you think he's sufficiently unhinged to use nukes if we intervene to stop his precious little invasion, you must naturally allow for the possibility that he won't stop his invasion in Ukraine.

Poland is NATO.

Are the other 2?

We stand by our alliances.

 

[Mach]

Why would Putin destroy Russia if NATO helped defend Ukraine? Doesn't seem rational.
Some love claiming Ukraine is so "unimportant", but then will insist Putin would go nuclear for Ukraine. It's seems silly.

 

[Noodlegawd]

Poland is NATO.

Are the other 2?

We stand by our alliances.

You're missing the point.

Do you think a person, who would launch nuclear weapons at us if we intervene militarily to stop his invasion of Ukraine, would hesitate to invade little old Latvia (another former Soviet republic) simply because it's a NATO member?

 

[molten_dragon]

I think a nuclear war is a very unlikely possibility. Putin grew up during the cold war. He understands MAD quite well. He doesn't want to rule over a smoking crater.

The biggest concern is that there's something wrong with Putin and he's no longer capable of making rational decisions. If that's the case, then a nuclear war becomes a bigger possibility, but I still think it's still fairly unlikely. I think he'll get deposed first.

 

[grip]

I think Putin would resort to air combat with MIGs and ground-to-air missiles first. If the Russian airforce got skunked, he might resort to hypersonic cruise missiles at NATO airbases. Nukes are the last act of desperation and suicide.

The US needs to tread carefully how much pressure they apply to a dangerous dictator who thinks he can live out his days in a nuclear-hardened bunker complex.

 

[StillBallin75]

Who the **** knows, he cray cray

 

[EdwinWillers]

I think a nuclear war is a very unlikely possibility. Putin grew up during the cold war. He understands MAD quite well. He doesn't want to rule over a smoking crater.

The biggest concern is that there's something wrong with Putin and he's no longer capable of making rational decisions. If that's the case, then a nuclear war becomes a bigger possibility, but I still think it's still fairly unlikely. I think he'll get deposed first.

I tend to agree. Depends on who's actually running Russia right now besides Putin. If there are some who think he's gone off the deep end and his actions are threatening MAD, they'll act, and act swiftly.

 

[StillBallin75]

Poland is NATO.

Are the other 2?

We stand by our alliances.

All three are NATO. Poland and all three Baltic states. In case there was any confusion.

Agree with the last sentence.

 

[Mircea]

if NATO decided Putin's human rights violations warranted intervention and they established a no fly zone over Ukraine would Putin resort to nuclear war?

No, Putin would just point out the hypocrisy of the US and its human rights violations in the puppet-States the US rules.

I did not answer the poll. The reason NATO / US did not establish a no fly zone is because they would have to enforce it by shooting down a Russian plane. Should that happen and we fired the first shot, you damn right Putin would use nuclear weapons and NY would be the first target.

Um, no, Russian nuclear weapons policy has always been no first use, quid pro quo response.

Your failure to understand that is why you don't understand that Russia put SS-4 and SS-5 IRBMs in Cuba -- after Kennedy gave them the green-light by swearing up and down and guaranteeing that the US would never invade Cuba in a radio and TV address broadcast around the world -- in retaliation for the US deployment of Jupiter IRBMs to Italy and Turkey.

Get it?

The Jupiter IRBMs could hit every city in every East Bloc State, plus Moscow and most other major cities in Russia-proper, meaning everything west of the Urals.

The only way the Russians could respond to that is by escalating to the use of ICBMs, which would be unthinkable, even for the Russians.

 

[Patriotic Voter]

if NATO decided Putin's human rights violations warranted intervention and they established a no fly zone over Ukraine would Putin resort to nuclear war?

Nuclear war against who?

We already know what NATO thinks.

 

[Patriotic Voter]

If NATO intervened in Ukraine, I do not believe that would directly trigger a nuclear exchange. Such a conflict would be, ultimately, yet another in a long line of proxy wars that resulted in great harm and damage to many, but no nuclear detonations. What it would do, unfortunately, is put NATO forces potentially within miles of Russian territory, and a conflict that spills into Russian soil may well create the pretext for a nuclear exchange.

NATO can't do anything with Ukraine as a group. Ukraine must be a NATO member to get any such benefits. So all NATO members who want to help must do it independently. Only Ukraine can make a no-fly zone over itself.

 

[PeacefulWarrior]

if NATO decided Putin's human rights violations warranted intervention and they established a no fly zone over Ukraine would Putin resort to nuclear war?

I strenuously doubt it.
There would be nothing to gain.

 

[Mircea]

That's entirely outside of NATO's purview and charter, so it's a fantasy not even worth exploring. The only no-fly zone NATO will ever attempt to enforce will be over NATO countries - which is just as it should be.

Um, no, the other No-Fly Zone is the future No-Fly Zone the US intends to establish when it gains control of the eastern Russian republics.

That's why Ukraine is important.

Russia wants a neutral Ukraine as a buffer-State between NATO and Russia, just as Belarus serves as a buffer-State between NATO and Russia.

If you don't understand buffer-States, then you don't know your history, and you especially don't understand Russian history.

Ukraine is even more important now that Russia controls Crimea.

Russian surface groups can operate out of Crimea and they're extremely good at providing anti-ship/anti-air screening. They would shoot down US/NATO aircraft coming out of Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey to enforce the future No-Fly Zone. Russian ADA systems in Crimea will also help.

Then there's the matter of using Crimea as FOBs for Russian fighters to interdict US/NATO aircraft and Russian bombers to destroy US/NATO airbases in Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey attempting to enforce the future No-Fly Zone.

If NATO intervened in Ukraine, I do not believe that would directly trigger a nuclear exchange. Such a conflict would be, ultimately, yet another in a long line of proxy wars that resulted in great harm and damage to many, but no nuclear detonations. What it would do, unfortunately, is put NATO forces potentially within miles of Russian territory, and a conflict that spills into Russian soil may well create the pretext for a nuclear exchange.

No, it wouldn't.

The US ERWs (Enhanced Radiation Warheads) or "neutron bomb" if you prefer were removed from the Army inventory and dismantled by 1993.

Russia still has ~3,000 ERWs ranging from 1 kt to 12 kt (20 kt is the limit).

Those are tube fired artillery in the 1 kt range, plus short range missiles in the 5 kt to 12 kt range and gravity bombs in the 5 kt to 12 kt range (and possibly the 1 kt range, too.)

The good thing about neutron weapons is that US troops will have up to 3 days to contact their families before they keel over and die

You're missing the point.

Do you think a person, who would launch nuclear weapons at us if we intervene militarily to stop his invasion of Ukraine, would hesitate to invade little old Latvia (another former Soviet republic) simply because it's a NATO member?

No, you're missing the point.

Russia is not interested in expansion. Russia is only interested in neutral buffer-States between it and NATO.

I think a nuclear war is a very unlikely possibility. Putin grew up during the cold war. He understands MAD quite well. He doesn't want to rule over a smoking crater.

He wouldn't be ruling over a "smoking crater" but then you'd never know since you and 300+ Million Americans will be dead in less than 6 months, and only 2 or 3 450-750 kt warheads detonated 85 miles above the surface would be needed to do that.

The biggest concern is that there's something wrong with Putin and he's no longer capable of making rational decisions. If that's the case, then a nuclear war becomes a bigger possibility, but I still think it's still fairly unlikely. I think he'll get deposed first.

Invading Ukraine is a rational decision.

The US wants the eastern Russian republics. This is just King's Knight to King Bishop-3.

 

[Noodlegawd]

No, you're missing the point.

Russia is not interested in expansion. Russia is only interested in neutral buffer-States between it and NATO.

I couldn't give a **** what they're "interested in." NATO has never threatened Russia, and Russia is invading a sovereign nation for no good reason.

And more importantly, that has nothing to do my comment.

 

[Lursa]

Havent read the latest posts...anyone speculating on the use of EMPs?

Havent heard or read anything in the media.