Make Your Prediction (1 Viewer)

[cpwill]

alright ladies and gents; time to put 'em on the line. rather than let any of you lefties run away with the "well of course we always knew it was going to be a Republicanyearpartyoutofpoweralwayssuffersohlook!abeagle!" routine, i want ya'll to go ahead and go on record; lefties, righties, and those of you out there in the nethers and wierd middle.

what is congress going to look like this time next year?

my bet: the msm will do everything it can to convince Americans that the economy is improving. Americans will be grudging to accept that; a majority don't see any real recovery any time soon. the msm will quickly forget about the oil spill, and attempt to marginalize the Tea Party. this will be counterproductive; and Republicans will take the House and poooosibly the Senate.

 

[Redress]

I predict the right will blame every story that they do not like on the media.

House is too close to call, small majority either way, within 5 or so seats.

Senate will remain with democrats by 1 or 2 seats.

Republicans will blame not getting control of both houses on, surprise, the media.

 

[USA_1]

alright ladies and gents; time to put 'em on the line. rather than let any of you lefties run away with the "well of course we always knew it was going to be a Republicanyearpartyoutofpoweralwayssuffersohlook!abeagle!" routine, i want ya'll to go ahead and go on record; lefties, righties, and those of you out there in the nethers and wierd middle.

what is congress going to look like this time next year?

my bet: the msm will do everything it can to convince Americans that the economy is improving. Americans will be grudging to accept that; a majority don't see any real recovery any time soon. the msm will quickly forget about the oil spill, and attempt to marginalize the Tea Party. this will be counterproductive; and Republicans will take the House and poooosibly the Senate.

Republicans will gain control of senate and the house. By then people will have forgotten that they are the ones that got us in this mess. It will go back and forth for decades.

 

[Republicanideal]

I forsee a definite Republican House with maybe a 1 or two seat majority in the senate going either way but most likely Republican. Republicans will pick up Colorado, Louisiana, Illinois,Missouri, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Kentucky, and Nevada in my prediction in very close elections decided by 1 or 2 percentage points in Illinois and New hampshire but by slightly larger margins of 3 or 4 percent in the other states.

 

[Spaceman_Spiff]

I forsee a definite Republican House with maybe a 1 or two seat majority in the senate going either way but most likely Republican. Republicans will pick up Colorado, Louisiana, Illinois,Missouri, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Kentucky, and Nevada in my prediction in very close elections decided by 1 or 2 percentage points in Illinois and New hampshire but by slightly larger margins of 3 or 4 percent in the other states.

If that is your projection for how the Senate races will turn out, then the Democrats will still control the Senate. Of the ten Republican victories they already control six of the seats, putting them far short of the ten victories they need to regain the Senate. Is there a reason you didn't include Arkansas, South Dakota, Indiana, and Delaware as Republican wins?

As for my predictions I'm expecting the Republicans to regain control of the House of Representatives, but will fall short three or four seats of a majority in the Senate.

 

[disneydude]

Although it is possible that the GOP could pick up enough seats to regain the house, I doubt it will happen. They will pick up some seats, but I think will fall substantially short of retaking the house. Primarily because although voters are angry with both parties, they are less happy with Republicans than they are with Democrats. Also, although there is a large "vote them out" feeling in the air, most voters want to vote out other people's congressperson, not their own. Ultimately, I don't see voters giving the house back to the party that got us into this mess in the first place.
As for the Senate...there is zero chance the Republicans pick up enough seats to regain the senate.

 

[zimmer]

I predict the right will blame every story that they do not like on the media.

Republicans will blame not getting control of both houses on, surprise, the media.

Republicans will blame their own party for picking candidates that weren't conservative enough.

We blamed McCain and the selection process, as well as the press.

A competent, eloquent candidate that would have forced the feet of the press to cover Obama a little ...as he should have been covered (relentlessly on Wright for example) would have brought the defeat of our Imposter President.

The mid-term races aren't like the Presidential; they're less about national news organs than local, though Obama's sheer incompetence and overreach has contaminated his already reeling party of wackos.

The nation is currently paying a heavy price for a public left ignorant due to the misdeeds and incompetence of the press... their transition to unabashed, "tingle up their legs" propagandists.

Howard Fineman well explained how the press has been playing the public not long ago:

Still, the notion of a neutral, non-partisan mainstream press was, to me at least, worth holding onto. Now it's pretty much dead...

...The problem was that, once the AMMP declared its existence by taking sides, there was no going back. A party was born.

It was not accident that the birth coincided with an identity crisis in the Democratic Party. The ideological energy of the New Deal had faded; Vietnam and various social revolutions of the ’60s were tearing it apart. Into the vacuum came the AMMP, which became the new forum for choosing Democratic candidates.

Fineman: 'Mainstream Media Party' is over - Politics - Howard Fineman - msnbc.com

 

[disneydude]

Republicans will blame their own party for picking candidates that weren't conservative enough.

We blamed McCain and the selection process, as well as the press.

A competent, eloquent candidate that would have forced the feet of the press to cover Obama a little ...as he should have been covered (relentlessly on Wright for example) would have brought the defeat of our Imposter President.

The mid-term races aren't like the Presidential; they're less about national news organs than local, though Obama's sheer incompetence and overreach has contaminated his already reeling party of wackos.

The nation is currently paying a heavy price for a public left ignorant due to the misdeeds and incompetence of the press... their transition to unabashed, "tingle up their legs" propagandists.

Howard Fineman well explained how the press has been playing the public not long ago:

LOL...you just proved Redress' point. The Republican's will blame their failures on the press.....

 

[soccerboy22]

Senate will probably stay Democratic, but the majority will be by 2 or 3 seats. The House will probably go Republican, but not by much. Again by 5 or 6 seats.

 

[Groucho]

The Democrats will definitely lose seats -- that almost always happens in a midterm -- but it won't be enough to lose either House.

 

[Goshin]

I think the Republicans stand a very good chance of gaining a narrow majority in the House.

I seriously doubt they will retake the Senate this year, but I expect the Democrat majority to narrow considerably.

 

[Slartibartfast]

According to the latest simulation from fivethirtyeight.com, it looks like:

Our latest Senate simulation has the chamber convening in 2011 with an average of 53.4 Democrats (counting Joe Lieberman and Bernie Sanders), 46.1 Republicans, and 0.5 Charlie Crists.

The model gives Republicans a 17 percent chance of taking over the Senate if Charlie Crist caucuses with them, up significantly from 6 percent three weeks ago. If Crist does not caucus with them, their chances of a takeover are 12 percent. However, the model does not account for the contingency that someone like Joe Lieberman or Ben Nelson could decide to switch parties, which makes their chances slightly better than we suggest here.

Democrats' chances of gaining a net of one or more seat and re-claiming a 60-seat majority are 7 percent, down from 12 percent three weeks ago. If they could persuade Charlie Crist to caucus with them, however, their chances would improve to 10 percent.

Also, a quick note on the types of polls they use

Likely voter adjustment. We now notate whether each poll is of likely voters, registered voters, or all adults, and include variables for this in the regression analysis we use to calculate pollster house effects. The regression shows that, holding house effects constant, Democrats do a net of 4 points better in polls of registered voters (with a 95 percent confidence interval of about 2-6 points) than in polls of likely voters, and roughly 7 points better in polls of all adults.

 

[PeteEU]

No matter what, the US and the world is screwed. When one side refuses to have an opinion other than no, and the over side lacks balls, then you have a defacto stalemate that achieves nothing good.

 

[Republicanideal]

Is there a reason you didn't include Arkansas, South Dakota, Indiana, and Delaware as Republican wins?

Yes, I forgot to include them thanks for pointing those out. I like to think I am infallible but I clearly am not. LOL!

 

[Demon of Light]

I think Crist stands a good chance of winning and if he caucuses with the Democrats as some predict it pretty much assures a Dem Senate. However, the House is very likely in my opinion to go Republican. Either way Obama is going to find it essentially impossible to get anything done.

 

[PeteEU]

I think Crist stands a good chance of winning and if he caucuses with the Democrats as some predict it pretty much assures a Dem Senate. However, the House is very likely in my opinion to go Republican. Either way Obama is going to find it essentially impossible to get anything done.

Which is only slightly less than now. Only real difference will be a Democratic party able but not willing (aka dont have the balls) to call the hypocritical NO party out and bust any filibuster the Republicans throw in the way, vs a Democratic party not able to break up a filibuster, but still having a Republican party say NO to any and all legislation without coming with any alternatives what so ever themselves.

 

[Redress]

...and 0.5 Charlie Crists...

I found that hilarious.

 

[TheNextEra]

Prediction: Dems will still control the senate and house with a slight majority.

America will still be screwed and the GOP will still be the party of no ideas.

 

[Deuce]

I found that hilarious.

I'm picturing the legless torso of Crist dragging himself bleeding into the room after the election.

I wonder what 538 says about the House. There's a lot more data to go over there, but his stuff is pretty thorough and interesting.

 

[Groucho]

Today's Gallup Poll has the democrats surging to a 6 point lead on the generic ballot:

Democrats Jump Into Six-Point Lead on Generic Ballot

Among independents, it rose quite a bit:

Gallup thinks it's due to the popular Wall Street reform bill that was passed: It's possible the increased voter support for Democratic candidates this past week is linked with the Wall Street regulatory reform bill that passed in the U.S. Senate last Thursday, July 15. The financial reform bill is the second-biggest piece of legislation to get through Congress this year, after healthcare reform, and it enjoyed majority support.

 

[Goshin]

Gallup thinks it's due to the popular Wall Street reform bill that was passed: It's possible the increased voter support for Democratic candidates this past week is linked with the Wall Street regulatory reform bill that passed in the U.S. Senate last Thursday, July 15. The financial reform bill is the second-biggest piece of legislation to get through Congress this year, after healthcare reform, and it enjoyed majority support.

Gallup is ignorant. It's because the Republicans have stalled the extension of unemployment benefits... a very unpopular position just now.

 

[Redress]

Gallup is ignorant. It's because the Republicans have stalled the extension of unemployment benefits... a very unpopular position just now.

It's almost certainly some of both.

 

[cpwill]

I predict the right will blame every story that they do not like on the media.

House is too close to call, small majority either way, within 5 or so seats.

Senate will remain with democrats by 1 or 2 seats.

Although it is possible that the GOP could pick up enough seats to regain the house, I doubt it will happen. They will pick up some seats, but I think will fall substantially short of retaking the house... As for the Senate...there is zero chance the Republicans pick up enough seats to regain the senate.

The Democrats will definitely lose seats -- that almost always happens in a midterm -- but it won't be enough to lose either House.

note to self; i should have made this a public poll.

current predictions are Republicans take about 55 seats in the House; they need 39 to pick up a majority. The Senate will probably remain Democrat, but there is an outside chance that that will flip as well (though slim).