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Is the Bottom Finally Falling Out from Under Trump

calamity

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The red line has fallen sharply over the past week. I expect it to sink even lower.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election: Trump vs. Clinton

Logic has it that Trump gets zero Obama voters. While Hillary maintains a hold on most of them. And, that's good news because Obama wiped the electoral vote floor with both McCain and Romney.

Turnout is the key, however. Hillary needs to get the Obama voter out. But, baring Donald pulling a Russian hacker out of his sleeve, this is probably over because Trump is not going to be getting much Christian support.
 

Quag

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The red line has fallen sharply over the past week. I expect it to sink even lower.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election: Trump vs. Clinton

Logic has it that Trump gets zero Obama voters. While Hillary maintains a hold on most of them. And, that's good news because Obama wiped the electoral vote floor with both McCain and Romney.

Turnout is the key, however. Hillary needs to get the Obama voter out. But, baring Donald pulling a Russian hacker out of his sleeve, this is probably over because Trump is not going to be getting much Christian support.

They both suck!
 

calamity

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They both suck!

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manise

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The red line has fallen sharply over the past week. I expect it to sink even lower.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election: Trump vs. Clinton

Logic has it that Trump gets zero Obama voters. While Hillary maintains a hold on most of them. And, that's good news because Obama wiped the electoral vote floor with both McCain and Romney.

Turnout is the key, however. Hillary needs to get the Obama voter out. But, baring Donald pulling a Russian hacker out of his sleeve, this is probably over because Trump is not going to be getting much Christian support.
I don't put much trust in logic this campaign season. How many times has Trump had a voter ceiling shattered? Those polls still show a neck and neck nationwide race and too many toss up swing states for Democrats to take any comfort. We'll get a better view of the campaign after the post DNC polls come in next week. If Clinton gets no bounce, her campaign is in real trouble.

BTW, all this fuss about the Russian hackers makes Democrats furious, and rightly so, but it also reminds voters of Clinton's most recent email scandal. If more emails drip, drip, drip into the media over the coming months, then these aggregate polls may change again---in the wrong direction.

I hope you are right and that I'm wrong. I sincerely do.
 

PeteEU

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Pft did the "your own predictions" and got a 269 vs 269 ... lets all just get drunk for 4 years?
 

Chomsky

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The red line has fallen sharply over the past week. I expect it to sink even lower.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election: Trump vs. Clinton

Logic has it that Trump gets zero Obama voters. While Hillary maintains a hold on most of them. And, that's good news because Obama wiped the electoral vote floor with both McCain and Romney.

Turnout is the key, however. Hillary needs to get the Obama voter out. But, baring Donald pulling a Russian hacker out of his sleeve, this is probably over because Trump is not going to be getting much Christian support.
I can't speak to his "bottom falling out", but do see him as competitive and possibly winning.

Exactly.

It's a multi-candidate election, *not* a one-on-one personality contest.

N.B. 2K Bush v Gore v Nader

[And also very importantly, it's an electoral college vote - not popular vote]
 

Chomsky

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I don't put much trust in logic this campaign season. How many times has Trump had a voter ceiling shattered? Those polls still show a neck and neck nationwide race and too many toss up swing states for Democrats to take any comfort. We'll get a better view of the campaign after the post DNC polls come in next week. If Clinton gets no bounce, her campaign is in real trouble.

BTW, all this fuss about the Russian hackers makes Democrats furious, and rightly so, but it also reminds voters of Clinton's most recent email scandal. If more emails drip, drip, drip into the media over the coming months, then these aggregate polls may change again---in the wrong direction.

I hope you are right and that I'm wrong. I sincerely do.
Right on!

Actually, much of the country doesn't pay much attention until they get the kids back in school and have put Labor Day behind them! That's when the polls start converging & getting more accurate.

But you make good points. I believe Clinton stands more to lose, since these emails and all surrounding them is out of her control. Trump can somewhat control his own destiny by simply not screwing-up, but often that seems too tall of an order for him!

But barring a very large post-convention HRC bump, I'd call Trump extremely competitive, and while I can't support it with quantified evidence - my gut says Trump just may pull this off.

Watch Florida: I'm predicting the candidate that wins FL, will win the election! I feel strongly about this.
 

Threegoofs

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The first post-convention poll shows Clinton with a healthy lead. About 950 voters.


Clinton 46
Trump 31
Johnson 7
Stein 2

MOE is about 3%


"The poll comes from RABA Research, a bipartisan polling firm, which conducted an online nationwide survey the Friday following the convention.

Among likely voters, Clinton is now polling at 46 percent; Donald Trump, 31 percent. Libertarian Gary Johnson’s polling at 7 percent; the Green Party’s Jill Stein, 2. (The day after the Republican National Convention, RABA had Clinton and Trump at 39 and 34, respectively.)"

RABA Research – Fast. Fair. Accurate. Affordable.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 

Moot

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Right on!

Actually, much of the country doesn't pay much attention until they get the kids back in school and have put Labor Day behind them! That's when the polls start converging & getting more accurate.

But you make good points. I believe Clinton stands more to lose, since these emails and all surrounding them is out of her control. Trump can somewhat control his own destiny by simply not screwing-up, but often that seems too tall of an order for him!

But barring a very large post-convention HRC bump, I'd call Trump extremely competitive, and while I can't support it with quantified evidence - my gut says Trump just may pull this off.

Watch Florida: I'm predicting the candidate that wins FL, will win the election! I feel strongly about this.

I predict Trump will take Florida....and Pennsylvania will decide the election....because of the blue collar working class.
 

CanadaJohn

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I can't speak to his "bottom falling out", but do see him as competitive and possibly winning.

Exactly.

It's a multi-candidate election, *not* a one-on-one personality contest.

N.B. 2K Bush v Gore v Nader

[And also very importantly, it's an electoral college vote - not popular vote]

Don't forget Pat Buchanan in that 2000 Presidential race. Reportedly, many old bitties in Florida were confused by the ballot and voted for Buchanan when they meant to vote for Gore. As a result, in some predominantly Democrat areas, Buchanan did remarkably well and far beyond expectations. A few thousand votes that way may have given Bush Florida and the electoral college win.

If either or both of Stein/Johnson can cause that kind of effect in some areas and take votes away, legitimately or by mistake, it could be relevant - but I'm pretty much of the opinion now that Clinton will waltz home with a comfortable electoral college win.
 

countryboy

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The red line has fallen sharply over the past week. I expect it to sink even lower.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election: Trump vs. Clinton

Logic has it that Trump gets zero Obama voters. While Hillary maintains a hold on most of them. And, that's good news because Obama wiped the electoral vote floor with both McCain and Romney.

Turnout is the key, however. Hillary needs to get the Obama voter out. But, baring Donald pulling a Russian hacker out of his sleeve, this is probably over because Trump is not going to be getting much Christian support.

Good grief. At what point do your silly wishful thinking BS threads become spam? You just make this stuff up as you go along. :roll:
 

TobyOne

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It will be very ironic if the bitter clingers decide the election.

I predict Trump will take Florida....and Pennsylvania will decide the election....because of the blue collar working class.
 

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I predict Trump will take Florida....and Pennsylvania will decide the election....because of the blue collar working class.
You know, after just checking the polls for the first time since before the DEM convention - you may be right.

I didn't realize how far PENN is now lagging OH & FL for Trump.

I'm wondering if Sen Rubio's entrance into the Senate race might be helping bringing FL around for Trump, too.

Thanks for bringing this to my attention.
 

Threegoofs

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You know, after just checking the polls for the first time since before the DEM convention - you may be right.

I didn't realize how far PENN is now lagging OH & FL for Trump.

I'm wondering if Sen Rubio's entrance into the Senate race might be helping bringing FL around for Trump, too.

Thanks for bringing this to my attention.

According to 538, it's pretty even in PA.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/




Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 

joG

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The red line has fallen sharply over the past week. I expect it to sink even lower.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election: Trump vs. Clinton

Logic has it that Trump gets zero Obama voters. While Hillary maintains a hold on most of them. And, that's good news because Obama wiped the electoral vote floor with both McCain and Romney.

Turnout is the key, however. Hillary needs to get the Obama voter out. But, baring Donald pulling a Russian hacker out of his sleeve, this is probably over because Trump is not going to be getting much Christian support.

That would have made me feel better till I listened to her speech. Now it is only a question of which contender makes me feel less ill.
 

manise

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The first post-convention poll shows Clinton with a healthy lead. About 950 voters.


Clinton 46
Trump 31
Johnson 7
Stein 2

MOE is about 3%


"The poll comes from RABA Research, a bipartisan polling firm, which conducted an online nationwide survey the Friday following the convention.

Among likely voters, Clinton is now polling at 46 percent; Donald Trump, 31 percent. Libertarian Gary Johnson’s polling at 7 percent; the Green Party’s Jill Stein, 2. (The day after the Republican National Convention, RABA had Clinton and Trump at 39 and 34, respectively.)"

RABA Research – Fast. Fair. Accurate. Affordable.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
I've never heard of RABA Research. 537 gives the firm a B- rating after reviewing just one of their polls this season. I would feel better if RABA's findings were replicated in one of 537's most rated polling firms like Survey USA or Quinnipiac or the like.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/
 

Moot

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You know, after just checking the polls for the first time since before the DEM convention - you may be right.

I didn't realize how far PENN is now lagging OH & FL for Trump.

I'm wondering if Sen Rubio's entrance into the Senate race might be helping bringing FL around for Trump, too.

Thanks for bringing this to my attention.

You're welcome. Of course, I could be wrong about Florida...it's a very tight race there too. I just think the blue collar union democrats in Pennsylvania are making it tight race there. Not sure why it's such a tight race in Florida...unless Rick Scott's environmental disaster is finally getting to people.

I don't think Rubio is very popular right now....Trump really damaged him. I doubt he'll even win back his seat.
 

Threegoofs

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I've never heard of RABA Research. 537 gives the firm a B- rating after reviewing just one of their polls this season. I would feel better if RABA's findings were replicated in one of 537's most rated polling firms like Survey USA or Quinnipiac or the like.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

Yep. It's a single poll.

But it's the first.

We shall see if the bounce is really this large.
 

Tigerace117

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The red line has fallen sharply over the past week. I expect it to sink even lower.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election: Trump vs. Clinton

Logic has it that Trump gets zero Obama voters. While Hillary maintains a hold on most of them. And, that's good news because Obama wiped the electoral vote floor with both McCain and Romney.

Turnout is the key, however. Hillary needs to get the Obama voter out. But, baring Donald pulling a Russian hacker out of his sleeve, this is probably over because Trump is not going to be getting much Christian support.


People have been asking that question for weeks.

The sad truth is that no matter what he says or does, Donald Trump will always be able to get people to vote for him because he's not Hilary. He could literally go on record as saying slavery was great for African Americans and he'd still get a ton of votes.
 

Threegoofs

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. He could literally go on record as saying slavery was great for African Americans and he'd still get a ton of votes.

Well, the people who agree with that statement are already voting for him, so it probably wouldn't change a whole lot...
 

Tigerace117

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Well, the people who agree with that statement are already voting for him, so it probably wouldn't change a whole lot...

True. Point is, people seem to think that being a total asshole is a good thing in a politician for some reason.
 

calamity

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People have been asking that question for weeks.

The sad truth is that no matter what he says or does, Donald Trump will always be able to get people to vote for him because he's not Hilary. He could literally go on record as saying slavery was great for African Americans and he'd still get a ton of votes.

Sure. But the ceiling is low. He's not going to get much past 45-47%. The issue though is will Hillary?
 
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