Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day

[j brown's body]

To be clear, I'm not attacking The Des Moines Register as a source. It just doesn't look good when you consider that poll as one data point. Likewise I'm not saying the Emerson poll is better, just recent enough that we could also expect it to show some kind of shift in Harris's favor. The fact that the Emerson poll actually shows Trump gaining ground since Harris entered the race isn't a good sign. Granted, there haven't been a whole lot of polls in Iowa, but I would like some kind of confirmation for something so unexpected.

Interesting to note it was the Selzer poll in 2016 that tipped off the Clinton campaign that things may not end well.

 

[Ethel2]

there are some MAGA women on this very site that would allow trump to "grab" them in their parts.

I doubt it. He’s pretty disgusting. My guess is that they’d want him punished if he sexually attacked them as he did Ms Carroll

 

[Hip octogenarian]

That’s right. The much revered Des Moines Register of the deep red state of Iowa places Harris ahead of Traitor Trump.

• Democrat Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in Iowa 47% to 44%, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows.
• A victory for Harris would be a shocking development after Iowa has swung aggressively to the right in recent elections, delivering Trump solid victories in 2016 and 2020.
• The poll shows that women — particularly those who are older or are politically independent — are driving the late shift toward Harris.
• Trump continues to lead with his core base of support: men, evangelicals, rural residents and those without a college degree.

Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day. Here's how

The new Iowa Poll shows Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by 3 points. Pollster J. Ann Selzer: “It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming.”

www.desmoinesregister.com

A sign of what we’ll see on Tuesday?

This is great news, and yes, I believe it is a sign of what we'll see on Tuesday.

 

[Linc]

She's helping them out with money.

How do you know this conjecture without evidential sources?
Democrats on the ground on DP paint a poor picture, especially in NM.

This isn’t the first time you’ve corrected a truthful story from me you don’t like though.
Kind of a bizarre, fascist way of squelching criticism you accuse of magas.

 

[Grogu]

That we're even talking about Iowa is crazy.

Women

And guess what’s leading off the local newscasts here in Iowa tonight? Two days before Election Day. No matter what anyone thinks of the Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll, everybody sees it here, and it opens eyes to the fact that Trump could actually lose this state.

 

[j brown's body]

How do you know this conjecture without evidential sources?
Democrats on the ground on DP paint a poor picture, especially in NM.

This isn’t the first time you’ve corrected a truthful story from me you don’t like though.
Kind of a bizarre, fascist way of squelching criticism you accuse of magas.

Isn't it. though.

Harris campaign, DNC, announce unprecedented down-ballot spending​

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/09/03/harris-campaign-down-ballot-spending-00177075

 

[RaleBulgarian]

You don't know that. Mathematically, you can't possibly know that. I've explained this ad nauseam.

I do know, but we don’t need to argue about it.

Finally down to the last few days.

Amen.

 

[Captain Adverse]

There's another poll that has Trump with a 10+ lead in Iowa. I'm afraid this is hopium and a false positive. But maybe Iowa shocks the world on election day

No, the OP poll, it's a bullsh*t poll.

Nothing would get Trump to drop that massively in the space of a week in this State.

We are talking about IOWA people. Not New York or California.

 

[madman]

I doubt it. He’s pretty disgusting. My guess is that they’d want him punished if he sexually attacked them as he did Ms Carroll

he is disgusting but im willing to bet that those women would allow it to happen to get him to win

 

[Beruit 1978]

The real poll takes place in two days. Everything says the race is within the margin of error, and I'm not taking a late outlier poll as something special.

 

[Ethel2]

No, the OP poll, it's a bullsh*t poll.

Nothing would get Trump to drop that massively in the space of a week in this State.

We are talking about IOWA people. Not New York or California.

Lol
It’s a bs poll because you don’t like the results?
Too bad.
Relax. It’s only one poll. Tomorrow Harris could be ahead in Iowa by an even larger margin!
To me what the poll indicates is that the race in Iowa is tightening. I don’t think Harris will win the state. But wouldn’t it be wonderful?
Women don’t like the rapist. That’s clear.

 

[JMR]

Maybe we don’t want his protection, even if he demands that we take it.

Living in a solidly blue state I don't see many Trump commercials, until I saw one tonight. Three very elderly ladies sitting at a table in a coffee shop talking.....saying they are democrats, and have NEVER voted for a Republican, BUT Trump, he is going to protect us, so we will vote for Trump. Kind of laughable. I doubt Trump is getting any women converts, but I welcome him spending his money on his lost cause here.

 

[RaleBulgarian]

To be clear, I'm not attacking The Des Moines Register as a source. It just doesn't look good when you consider that poll as one data point. Likewise I'm not saying the Emerson poll is better, just recent enough that we could also expect it to show some kind of shift in Harris's favor. The fact that the Emerson poll actually shows Trump gaining ground since Harris entered the race isn't a good sign. Granted, there haven't been a whole lot of polls in Iowa, but I would like some kind of confirmation for something so unexpected.

And I’m not saying that the Des Moines Register is infallible, but it does have an excellent track record for accurately predicting which presidential candidate will win the state.

 

[Beruit 1978]

And I’m not saying that the Des Moines Register is infallible, but it does have an excellent track record for accurately predicting which presidential candidate will win the state.

How long is that record? Maybe 120 years? Or 150 years? Oh, nuts. It seems they are only citing 20 years of being on target. Whatever . . .

Ooops, I counted wrong. It's only 12 years of accurate predicitions. I'm even less impressed. I think a lot of Dems are putting a lot of faith in a very fallible poll.

 

[RaleBulgarian]

No, the OP poll, it's a bullsh*t poll.

Nothing would get Trump to drop that massively in the space of a week in this State.

We are talking about IOWA people. Not New York or California.

Your butthurt doesn’t change the fact that The Des Moines Register has accurately predicted which presidential candidate would win the state in every election since ‘04, and is considered the “gold standard” of Iowa statewide polls.

 

[RaleBulgarian]

How long is that record? Maybe 120 years? Or 150 years? Oh, nuts. It seems they are only citing 20 years of being on target. Whatever . . .

More pathetic Traitor Trump supporter excuses. If The Des Moines Register was predicting a Traitor Trump win, you’d be singing a different tune.

 

[Beruit 1978]

More pathetic Traitor Trump supporter excuses. If The Des Moines Register was predicting a Traitor Trump win, you’d be singing a different tune.

Actually, no. I've been watching the polls that say Trump wins in a landslide - and mocking those just like I'm mocking this Des Moines poll. Not one of the polls has a very remarkable record of predicting the winner.

Nov 5 will be the poll that matters.

Now, if someone claimed that Punxsatawney Phil had predicted the winner for the last 80 years, I would look at Phil to see what how he's doing it.

 

[RaleBulgarian]

Living in a solidly blue state I don't see many Trump commercials, until I saw one tonight. Three very elderly ladies sitting at a table in a coffee shop talking.....saying they are democrats, and have NEVER voted for a Republican, BUT Trump, he is going to protect us, so we will vote for Trump. Kind of laughable. I doubt Trump is getting any women converts, but I welcome him spending his money on his lost cause here.

I’ve seen that ad. A total waste of money, and an insult to women.

 

[RaleBulgarian]

Actually, no. I've been watching the polls that say Trump wins in a landslide - and mocking those just like I'm mocking this Des Moines poll. Not one of the polls has a very remarkable record of predicting the winner.

Nov 5 will be the poll that matters.

Now, if someone claimed that Punxsatawney Phil had predicted the winner for the last 80 years, I would look at Phil to see what how he's doing it.

No reputable polling organization is predicting a Traitor Trump “landslide”.

You’re talking out of your ass.

 

[Beruit 1978]

I've made no claims of "reputable" polls. In fact, I'm mocking any claims of reputations, either left or right. No one has a solid history going back 60, 80, or 100 years.

Meanwhile, Newsweek is talking about a Trump landslide, only hours ago.

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-kamala-harris-polls-swing-states-landslide-1967717

 

[Deuce]

Todays polling is all over the place. They used to be conducted the same and except for Fox the results were pretty much the same. This is no longer true. Do some research. With the disappearance of land lines things have changed. They all have different ways of doing their research now. The results show this and they can vary widely.

Yeah, I remember an NPR article interviewing someone at a polling firm, who basically said they can't get random samples anymore because the participation rates are terrible. Not only has the entire population been given PTSD from we've been trying to reach you about your car's warranty, but we've also got a generation of voters who never talk on the phone. The text message generation.

 

[Ethel2]

No reputable polling organization is predicting a Traitor Trump “landslide”.

You’re talking out of your ass.

I've made no claims of "reputable" polls. In fact, I'm mocking any claims of reputations, either left or right. No one has a solid history going back 60, 80, or 100 years.

Meanwhile, Newsweek is talking about a Trump landslide, only hours ago.

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-kamala-harris-polls-swing-states-landslide-1967717

From your own link:
“With just a month remaining until the election, polls in all seven battleground states show the race within the margin of error, leaving the door open for EITHER CANDIDATE to potentially sweep all key swing states.”

Try reading your own links.

 

[Linc]

No, the OP poll, it's a bullsh*t poll.

Nothing would get Trump to drop that massively in the space of a week in this State.

We are talking about IOWA people. Not New York or California.

More BULLSHIT tRumpistani conjecture without links. ️

 

[Deuce]

I've made no claims of "reputable" polls. In fact, I'm mocking any claims of reputations, either left or right. No one has a solid history going back 60, 80, or 100 years.

Meanwhile, Newsweek is talking about a Trump landslide, only hours ago.

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-kamala-harris-polls-swing-states-landslide-1967717

...this is an article talking about how unlikely that is.

LMAO.

 

[Parker_Chess]

No, the OP poll, it's a bullsh*t poll.

Nothing would get Trump to drop that massively in the space of a week in this State.

We are talking about IOWA people. Not New York or California.

Tbh it's smaller states with lower populations that can shift quickly. This pollster does have a track record of predicting the election with pin point precision. Personally I still believe Trump carries Iowa but it may be closer than expected.