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Interest on the National Debt in 2018 Was 325 Billion Dollars

Exquisitor said:
Oil reserves don't expand.

Eventually they're going to run out and when I checked last decade it was now, right at the (first) Convergence (2020-2026), oil production will begin to dwindle (as demand rises).

I'm all for using it up, but how is the replacement fuel coming along?

Do I trust them to get it right?

Do I trust them not to Max Out?

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Known exploitable reserves have absolutely expanded. Peak Oil turned out to be a(nother) malthusian bust. Production can increase for the better part of a century.

What Convergence?
 
cpwill said:
.... while I'm not sure what you mean by the Convergence, exploitable oil reserves have consistently expanded over the last century.
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But what if continued expansion of oil reserves (via fracking, arctic and deep-sea drilling) demand an ever-higher environmental price to be paid? Are you going to be willing to pay a premium at the pumps to pay for remediation costs?
 
Cordelier said:
But what if continued expansion of oil reserves (via fracking, arctic and deep-sea drilling) demand an ever-higher environmental price to be paid? Are you going to be willing to pay a premium at the pumps to pay for remediation costs?
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Funny you should say that: as our ability to find and exploit these reserves has increased, so has our ability to minimize ecological damage.
 
cpwill said:
Funny you should say that: as our ability to find and exploit these reserves has increased, so has our ability to minimize ecological damage.
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At a cost, though.... and as those costs increase, so too will the viability of alternative energy sources.
 
cpwill said:
Known exploitable reserves have absolutely expanded. Peak Oil turned out to be a(nother) malthusian bust. Production can increase for the better part of a century.

What Convergence?
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Are you sure?

Let's see a link.

oil production peak - Google Search

www.google.com

Has world oil production peaked?

In a Thursday statement, the fossil fuel giant said its “oil production peaked in 2019,” and that we can now expect it to decline gradually by 1 or 2% per year. ... The oil market has been in decline for years, and since the covid-19 pandemic began last year, fuel prices went from bad to catastrophically bad.
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Cordelier said:
I'd suggest that the risk lies in other countries someday not accepting our dollars because we watered down our currency too much. Inflation doesn't start in domestic markets.... it starts with import prices.
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I can't tell you how many decades I've been hearing that warning -- the warning that if we use borrowed money to do good things, the dollar is doomed. Ron Paul made that warning in 2009, claiming that Federal Reserve action of increasing the money supply will "debase" the dollar. The dollar got stronger over the years following that action.
 
[MTA Said: QUOTE]That may be true for a household but the economy is not like a household and government debt is not like an individual's debt. The federal government has the ability to do something you and I cannot -- create money out of thin air. The government can replace old debt coming due with newly issued debt.

There is no risk that the government will lose access to available money. [/QUOTE]

Exquisitor said:
Government can't do that without hyperinflation or other problems.
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That's exactly what we did after World War II, when the nation owed 120% of GDP. That period was the most prosperous period in history.
 
MTAtech said:
I can't tell you how many decades I've been hearing that warning -- the warning that if we use borrowed money to do good things, the dollar is doomed. Ron Paul made that warning in 2009, claiming that Federal Reserve action of increasing the money supply will "debase" the dollar. The dollar got stronger over the years following that action.
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I don't know what to tell you.... the dollar isn't going to hold it's worth indefinitely. There's going to come a point where one more straw breaks the camel's back.

I do know that adhering to easy money is pretty habit-forming.... and the more we do it, the harder it's going to be to break the habit.

We're still a democracy... so how politically viable is it going to be to tighten our fiscal belt when we have the ready option to just print new money? And how willing are foreigners going to be to hold our debt when the Federal Reserve is the one controlling long-term rates? There's going to come a point where they start demanding that debt be denominated in non-US dollars.
 
Cordelier said:
I don't know what to tell you.... the dollar isn't going to hold it's worth indefinitely. There's going to come a point where one more straw breaks the camel's back.etc etc
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Dollar down and inflation up . Hyper inflation likely with lines going missing and distribution channels breaking down .
Both have started and then the overvalued Markets will correct with a 1929 level scenario . Silver and BTC to the stars .

Almost convinces you of a great CT where The Donald himself actually had the election rigged to allow Sleepy to be the Patsy for this ghastly period . Followed by Trump's resurrection , the missing jigsaw piece -- to clear the mess

and get rid of the treasonous and corrupt . Even more clever than the Chess Master's original superb plan .
 
Monica33 said:
Dollar down and inflation up . Hyper inflation likely with lines going missing and distribution channels breaking down .
Both have started and then the overvalued Markets will correct with a 1929 level scenario . Silver and BTC to the stars .

Almost convinces you of a great CT where The Donald himself actually had the election rigged to allow Sleepy to be the Patsy for this ghastly period . Followed by Trump's resurrection , the missing jigsaw piece -- to clear the mess

and get rid of the treasonous and corrupt . Even more clever than the Chess Master's original superb plan .
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Donald Trump is a silver-spoon idiot who has wrecked everything he has ever touched. Move on.
 
cpwill said:
.... while I'm not sure what you mean by the Convergence, exploitable oil reserves have consistently expanded over the last century.
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The way you say that makes it sound like you believe oil is not a limited resource
 
cpwill said:
Known exploitable reserves have absolutely expanded. Peak Oil turned out to be a(nother) malthusian bust. Production can increase for the better part of a century.

What Convergence?
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Peak oil is a fact if you understand the point of it.

Production of conventional oil has peaked. ( as defined as easy to extract and or process oil) We are now using what was unconventional means to extract oil. From shale fracking and oil sands type of oil. All of which are far more costly to extract and use than oil typically extracted 15 years ago
 
Lord Tammerlain said:
The way you say that makes it sound like you believe oil is not a limited resource
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All resources are limited. But a collapse of oil supply between now and 2026?
 
cpwill said:
Not Likely is certainly one way to describe it ;)
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I learned my lesson in 2016 to never say something will occur.

So I am open to the possibility that anything could potentially occur, no matter how unlikely
 
Monica33 said:
Dollar down and inflation up . Hyper inflation likely with lines going missing and distribution channels breaking down .
Both have started and then the overvalued Markets will correct with a 1929 level scenario . Silver and BTC to the stars .

Almost convinces you of a great CT where The Donald himself actually had the election rigged to allow Sleepy to be the Patsy for this ghastly period . Followed by Trump's resurrection , the missing jigsaw piece -- to clear the mess

and get rid of the treasonous and corrupt . Even more clever than the Chess Master's original superb plan .
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I’m sure there also will be cats and dogs living together.

Your warning reminds me of the dire warnings about inflation -- from the Ron Paul/Glenn Beck types bellowed in 2009. Even the conservative monetary economist Allan Meltzer warned that we would become "inflation nation."

Yet, none of the catastrophes occurred — low inflation, a strong dollar and no high interest rates for over a decade.
 
Exquisitor said:
Are you sure?

Let's see a link.

oil production peak - Google Search

www.google.com
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Just to be clear Hubbert predicted his peak (the oil peak) in 1970. Since then, once every couple of years we see someone say we hit oil peak. Then magically production increases.

The problem being, when Hubbert made his prediction we were able to extract about 20% of oil in a reservoir, today secondary recovery methods takes that closer to 35%. We also have tertiary extraction methods that are not economical currently but push that up significantly.

Given the above, the simple peak model is outdated and stupid. We expect two things to continue to happen with supply (1) tertiary recovery methods will become cheaper and (2) demand driven price increases will make tertiary extraction economically viable.

As shale oil and tar sands become economically viable, our production capacity expands massively. In 2008, when crude hit $100 a barrel ($~150 today), shale extraction suddenly became profitable and several new operation started. Today U.S. shale production remains profitable under $50 per barrel.

This is the problem with Hubbert's oil peak, it confuses today's economically viable production with total available production. What we learned from 2008 is that there is a lot of extractable oil left and oil is not nearly as inelastic as we believed. Which means two things happen as prices rise (1) production increases and demand decreases. Given our new perspective the oil peak is much further away and much less important than we believed 20 years ago.
 
cpwill said:
Hey out of curiosity, what happens when our interest rates return to historic norms?
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Inflation and economic growth will have taken interest rates there.

Out of curiosity, tell me about the math regarding Japan. Surely you do remember!
 
Exquisitor said:
Interest on the National Debt in 2018 Was 325 Billion Dollars:

A third of a Trillion dollars, by now half a Trillion Dollars a year on interest.

But I guess you can't blame them, when you're only paying 1.625%.

Revenue is only 3.5 Trillion dollars. round it up to four, and your payments may not exceed one Trillion dollars.

We can borrow maybe another five-Trillion dollars before we're maxed out and then instead of living off an extra Trillion on the credit card you have to do with forty percent less.

This is it, 2021 we can either pay the debt or go bankrupt.

Repeal the Revenue Cut ASAP.
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What revenue cut? And why should we do that instead of cutting spending? Revenue is fine. Spending is the real problem. Ever since obamacare was passed, spending has increased at a faster pace. Healthcare spending now accounts for the entire deficit. And its going to go up with the latest democrat spending bill. Both healthcare and other welfare.

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MTAtech said:
[MTA Said: QUOTE]That may be true for a household but the economy is not like a household and government debt is not like an individual's debt. The federal government has the ability to do something you and I cannot -- create money out of thin air. The government can replace old debt coming due with newly issued debt.

There is no risk that the government will lose access to available money.
Click to expand...

That's exactly what we did after World War II, when the nation owed 120% of GDP. That period was the most prosperous period in history.
[/QUOTE]
Ya, and then it taxed the Hell out of it.
 
cpwill said:
.... You know that "prices being bad" means LOW, right? They are complaining that they have more supply relative to demand than they want.
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Sure, for a little bit longer, we won't feel the pinch for some years yet.

It's a bell shaped curve, one or two percent in the beginning , but you could be out in twenty years.
 
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