Germany before the election: Anti-Euro party will enter parliament?

[German guy]

As you probably know, Germany has a parliamentary system, meaning the voters elect the parliament which then elects the Chancellor. Unlike in Britain, Germany has a proportional representation system, meaning that a party that gets X% of the votes gets X% of the seats -- with one exception: A party needs to reach at least 5.0% of the votes (or win the plurality in at least three constituencies) to get seats at all.

This "5% hurdle" accordingly is the most important margin for small parties.

For the past decades, the system was very stable, meaning that only four parties (since 1990 five) were represented in the parliament, always the same parties (counting Merkel's center-right CDU/CSU as one party).

This may change after the election on September 22nd:

The anti-euro party AfD ("Alternative for Germany") was polled at 4% of the votes in a new poll by Forsa institute today (3% in most older polls by other institutes). But pollsters suggest that many people intending to vote for them won't reveal that in polls, because of the stigma still attached to voting for "protest parties". So it's not unlikely that the real potential of that party is higher.

What does the AfD want?

Alternative for Germany - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The founding members of the party are reputable intellectuals (such as economy professors and a former chairman of the employer organization) with a conservative or economically liberal leaning. Their main point is the protest against the euro bailouts with German taxpayer money and the euro currency. They emphasize they're not against the EU and European integration, but against the euro currency and in favor of national sovereignty in economic matters.

The party has taken many efforts to make sure no far-right populists or former neo-Nazis infiltrate the party, but nevertheless flirted with some mild right-populist slogans at local ralleys. But on the bottom line, they're certainly not a far-right party, but rather an anti-euro competition slightly right of Merkel's Christian Democrats.


Here a picture of AfD chairman and professor for economy, Bernd Lucke:



If the current polls are correct, there is a neck-and-neck race between Merkel's coalition of center-right Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) and moderately libertarian Free Democrats (FDP) on one side, and the "left camp" of center-left Social Democrats (SPD), environmentalist Greens and socialist Left Party.

Since the SPD refuse to cooperate with the Left Party, it boils down to a race for the spot of Merkel's junior partner: Will the FDP make it again, or will the SPD replace them as Merkel's junior partners, like they once did 2005-2009?

If the AfD manages to enter the parliament by making more than 5% of the votes, that would make a continuation of Merkel's current CDU/CSU-FDP coalition very improbable. In that case, the most likely outcome is a "grand coalition" between Merkel's CDU/CSU and opposition SPD.

And it would be the first time since 1961 that another right-wing party besides the CDU/CSU enters the parliament.

 

[lizzie]

I certainly don't blame them for their stance on economic issues. It will be interesting to see how the numbers come out.

 

[Artevelde]

As you probably know, Germany has a parliamentary system, meaning the voters elect the parliament which then elects the Chancellor. Unlike in Britain, Germany has a proportional representation system, meaning that a party that gets X% of the votes gets X% of the seats -- with one exception: A party needs to reach at least 5.0% of the votes (or win the plurality in at least three constituencies) to get seats at all.

This "5% hurdle" accordingly is the most important margin for small parties.

For the past decades, the system was very stable, meaning that only four parties (since 1990 five) were represented in the parliament, always the same parties (counting Merkel's center-right CDU/CSU as one party).

This may change after the election on September 22nd:

The anti-euro party AfD ("Alternative for Germany") was polled at 4% of the votes in a new poll by Forsa institute today (3% in most older polls by other institutes). But pollsters suggest that many people intending to vote for them won't reveal that in polls, because of the stigma still attached to voting for "protest parties". So it's not unlikely that the real potential of that party is higher.

What does the AfD want?

Alternative for Germany - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The founding members of the party are reputable intellectuals (such as economy professors and a former chairman of the employer organization) with a conservative or economically liberal leaning. Their main point is the protest against the euro bailouts with German taxpayer money and the euro currency. They emphasize they're not against the EU and European integration, but against the euro currency and in favor of national sovereignty in economic matters.

The party has taken many efforts to make sure no far-right populists or former neo-Nazis infiltrate the party, but nevertheless flirted with some mild right-populist slogans at local ralleys. But on the bottom line, they're certainly not a far-right party, but rather an anti-euro competition slightly right of Merkel's Christian Democrats.


Here a picture of AfD chairman and professor for economy, Bernd Lucke:
View attachment 67153112


If the current polls are correct, there is a neck-and-neck race between Merkel's coalition of center-right Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) and moderately libertarian Free Democrats (FDP) on one side, and the "left camp" of center-left Social Democrats (SPD), environmentalist Greens and socialist Left Party.

Since the SPD refuse to cooperate with the Left Party, it boils down to a race for the spot of Merkel's junior partner: Will the FDP make it again, or will the SPD replace them as Merkel's junior partners, like they once did 2005-2009?

If the AfD manages to enter the parliament by making more than 5% of the votes, that would make a continuation of Merkel's current CDU/CSU-FDP coalition very improbable. In that case, the most likely outcome is a "grand coalition" between Merkel's CDU/CSU and opposition SPD.

And it would be the first time since 1961 that another right-wing party besides the CDU/CSU enters the parliament.

You oversimplify the German electoral system and don't take into account the directly elected Bundestag-members, elected in the constituencies through the first vote. This also explains why, contrary to what you state, not 4 but 5 parties are represented in the Bundestag (even if you consider CDU/CSU as one party).

Personaly I think the defining fact is that - if the polls are correct (a big if) - the CDU/CSU is miles ahead of any other party and Merkel looks to be headed for a resounding victory. Assuming the FDP does gain somewhere between 5 and 10% a continuation of the current coalition would be likely, even if the AfD got into the Bundestag (My feeling is that they will also drain votes away from the left-wing parties, since they are not really an explicit right-wing party). The fact that the votes will further be scattered by the participation of many parties (PDS, Piraten, NPD, ...) there will in effect be an added bonus for the largest party (CDU/CSU).

 

[German guy]

You oversimplify the German electoral system and don't take into account the directly elected Bundestag-members, elected in the constituencies through the first vote. This also explains why, contrary to what you state, not 4 but 5 parties are represented in the Bundestag (even if you consider CDU/CSU as one party).

Look, I simplified it because nobody on a non-German forum cares about the exact details of the German electoral system, which would take at least three long paragraphs to explain, especially when that's not even necessary for the topic of the thread.

At any rate, what I said is absolutely correct insofar as that is what it boils down to. Especially since there are no longer "Überhangmandate" which aren't 100% compensated with seats for the remaining parties (since the BVG ruled the law has been changed, all parties which don't win "Überhangmandate" get extra seats for every "Überhangmandat" another party wins). So in the end, the only thing the "Erststimme" affects is if a direct candidate, or a candidate from a state list of each party enters the parliament, but it has no influence on the share of seats for the party.

And yes, technically CSU (in Bavaria only) and CDU (in all other states) are two seperate parties, but on federal level, they have been acting as one united block and share a united faction in the federal parliament ever since 1949.

You apparently overlooked that I wrote "since 1990 five" parties.

Personaly I think the defining fact is that - if the polls are correct (a big if) - the CDU/CSU is miles ahead of any other party and Merkel looks to be headed for a resounding victory. Assuming the FDP does gain somewhere between 5 and 10% a continuation of the current coalition would be likely, even if the AfD got into the Bundestag (My feeling is that they will also drain votes away from the left-wing parties, since they are not really an explicit right-wing party).

Well, *if* the polls are correct, than what you say is not the case:

Sonntagsfrage – Wahlumfragen zur Bundestagswahl 2013 – #btw13

Keep in mind that in order to win a majority, CDU/CSU and FDP together need more votes than all other parties in the parliament combined.

In the current polls, the results of CDU/CSU + FDP vs. SPD + Greens + Left Party are --

Allensbach: 46% / 45%
Emnid: 45% / 44%
Forsa: 45% / 43%
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen: 47% / 44%
GMS: 47% / 45%
Infratest Dimap: 46% / 45%
INSA: 44% / 47%

As you can see, it's very close. The moment CDU/CSU and FDP together have just one seat less than all other parties combined, they've lost their majority and cannot continue. Even when SPD and Greens refuse to cooperate with the Left Party (as I said, in that case, the SPD would likely join the CDU/CSU as junior partners once again).

The fact that the votes will further be scattered by the participation of many parties (PDS, Piraten, NPD, ...) there will in effect be an added bonus for the largest party (CDU/CSU).

If any more party enters the parliament, such as the AfD, CDU/CSU and FDP together need more seats than SPD + Greens + Left Party +AfD, which is even much more unlikely, considering that not all of the votes for the AfD will go on the cost of the left-wing parties, but especially from former abstainees, "switch voters" and to some extent from the right side. Also, the 3%-4% the party is currently polled at would be included in the calculation -- which would otherwise not be relevant. Makes sense?

Even if the AfD entered the parliament with their current 3%-4% (assuming for a moment they were excempt from the 5%-hurdle), that would already keep CDU/CSU+FDP from winning a majority.

The Piraten are another party with small prospects of entering the parliament for the first time. And even if they don't, maybe they'll cost the left the votes necessary to prevent Merkel's coalition to continue. If they enter, though, it would be the same as in case of the AfD -- bad for the FDP.

The NPD has never won more than 1.6% in federal elections in the past decades and isn't really relevant at all.

 

[DDD]

Look, I simplified it because nobody on a non-German forum cares about the exact details of the German electoral system, which would take at least three long paragraphs to explain, especially when that's not even necessary for the topic of the thread.

DeutchGuy, how about a synopsis? Make it sound fun too!

 

[RabidAlpaca]

I really hope they win and do well. I really support their goals. There's no reason we need to be taxed our asses off to hand that money to our friends to the south. But you already knew where I stood on that one.

 

[German guy]

DeutchGuy, how about a synopsis? Make it sound fun too!

Okay!

We are asked to cast two votes: The "1st vote" and the "2nd vote".

The 2nd vote is more important: It determines the number of seats for the parties in the parliament. Each state has a designated number of seats in the federal parliament. So in each state, the parties propose candidate lists. So let's say, for example, party ABC wins enough 2nd votes in Bavaria to get 15 seats, the first 15 candidates on their state list get seats. Number 16, 17 and so on, don't. That happens in all states.

BUT: The 1st vote determines a winner in each constituency by plurality. These "direct candidates" have priority over the state list. So let's assume party ABC wins 3 pluralities in 3 Bavarian constituencies, these 3 candidates get seats first, and the remaining seats are given to the candidates 1 to 12 from the state list. Direct candidates determined by the 1st vote always have priority over the state lists.

Now it gets tricky: Let's assume party DEF wins 20 constituencies in one state via 1st vote, but only 15 seats via 2nd vote. That means they get 20 seats -- 5 more than their percentage of 2nd votes allows. In that case, these 5 "Überhangmandate" ("prominence mandates") are simply added seats to the parliament. Until recently, that would distort the proportional representation, but a few months ago, the Federal Constitutional Court decided that's unconstitutional, and in order to compensate the other parties for it, they get an appropriate share of additional seats too, to balance this distortion.

So in previous elections, it would have been possible in theory that even a coalition that had won less 2nd votes than the opposition, might have won enough "prominence mandates" to get a majority of seats after all. Fortunately, that never happened so far, but this problem only benefited coalitions that had a majority anyway. It would probably have caused a lot of trouble.

Another special case is when a party wins a constituency via 1st vote, but fails to win at least 5% of the 2nd vote and thus does not enter parliament. In that case, there is a special rule: When a party wins the plurality in at least 3 constituencies via 1st vote, they are excempt from the 5%-hurdle. That happened to the socialist PDS, the predecessor of the Left Party, which entered the parliament with only 4.4% of the votes in 1994, by winning a plurality in 4 east Berlin constituencies.

In 2002, the PDS only won 4.0% of the 2nd votes and 2 constituencies via 1st vote -- so the party itself did not enter the parliament, but only these two direct candidates. All other candidates from the state lists were out. Technically, those two isolated PDS members of parliament held "prominence mandates".

Makes sense?

 

[German guy]

I really hope they win and do well. I really support their goals. There's no reason we need to be taxed our asses off to hand that money to our friends to the south. But you already knew where I stood on that one.

As you know, I'd never vote for them, but I kind of respect that party and part of me wishes they'll make it, just in order to shake up our politics a little.

 

[Artevelde]

Look, I simplified it because nobody on a non-German forum cares about the exact details of the German electoral system, which would take at least three long paragraphs to explain, especially when that's not even necessary for the topic of the thread.

At any rate, what I said is absolutely correct insofar as that is what it boils down to. Especially since there are no longer "Überhangmandate" which aren't 100% compensated with seats for the remaining parties (since the BVG ruled the law has been changed, all parties which don't win "Überhangmandate" get extra seats for every "Überhangmandat" another party wins). So in the end, the only thing the "Erststimme" affects is if a direct candidate, or a candidate from a state list of each party enters the parliament, but it has no influence on the share of seats for the party.

And yes, technically CSU (in Bavaria only) and CDU (in all other states) are two seperate parties, but on federal level, they have been acting as one united block and share a united faction in the federal parliament ever since 1949.

You apparently overlooked that I wrote "since 1990 five" parties.



Well, *if* the polls are correct, than what you say is not the case:

Sonntagsfrage – Wahlumfragen zur Bundestagswahl 2013 – #btw13

Keep in mind that in order to win a majority, CDU/CSU and FDP together need more votes than all other parties in the parliament combined.

In the current polls, the results of CDU/CSU + FDP vs. SPD + Greens + Left Party are --

Allensbach: 46% / 45%
Emnid: 45% / 44%
Forsa: 45% / 43%
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen: 47% / 44%
GMS: 47% / 45%
Infratest Dimap: 46% / 45%
INSA: 44% / 47%

As you can see, it's very close. The moment CDU/CSU and FDP together have just one seat less than all other parties combined, they've lost their majority and cannot continue. Even when SPD and Greens refuse to cooperate with the Left Party (as I said, in that case, the SPD would likely join the CDU/CSU as junior partners once again).



If any more party enters the parliament, such as the AfD, CDU/CSU and FDP together need more seats than SPD + Greens + Left Party +AfD, which is even much more unlikely, considering that not all of the votes for the AfD will go on the cost of the left-wing parties, but especially from former abstainees, "switch voters" and to some extent from the right side. Also, the 3%-4% the party is currently polled at would be included in the calculation -- which would otherwise not be relevant. Makes sense?

Even if the AfD entered the parliament with their current 3%-4% (assuming for a moment they were excempt from the 5%-hurdle), that would already keep CDU/CSU+FDP from winning a majority.

The Piraten are another party with small prospects of entering the parliament for the first time. And even if they don't, maybe they'll cost the left the votes necessary to prevent Merkel's coalition to continue. If they enter, though, it would be the same as in case of the AfD -- bad for the FDP.

The NPD has never won more than 1.6% in federal elections in the past decades and isn't really relevant at all.

Even if parties don't enter Parliament they are relevant, because they siphen off votes and make it possible to achieve a majority with less than 50% of the vote.

 

[German guy]

Even if parties don't enter Parliament they are relevant, because they siphen off votes and make it possible to achieve a majority with less than 50% of the vote.

Yes. But that's the case anyway. A majority of the votes has never been relevant, just a majority of the seats in the parliament. Many (West-)German governments which had a majority of seats had won less than 50% of the votes.

 

[German guy]

Even if parties don't enter Parliament they are relevant, because they siphen off votes and make it possible to achieve a majority with less than 50% of the vote.

Or, explaining the point I was making above regarding this election:

We have clear blocks, CDU/CSU+FDP one one side, and SPD+Greens on the other. None of them wants to cooperate with either Left Party or AfD.

That means the more seats Left Party and AfD win, the less likely is that either coalition wins a majority and the result would be a stalemate. In that case, the most likely outcome is a centrist "grand coalition" of center-right CDU/CSU and center-left SPD.

Now if the AfD failed to enter, with, say, 4.9% of the votes, that would probably increase the prospects for CDU/CSU+FDP, because it's likely some voters of the AfD come from the left or from former abstainees. But if the AfD enters, that decreases the chances for that coalition.

 

[Ikari]

As you probably know, Germany has a parliamentary system, meaning the voters elect the parliament which then elects the Chancellor. Unlike in Britain, Germany has a proportional representation system, meaning that a party that gets X% of the votes gets X% of the seats -- with one exception: A party needs to reach at least 5.0% of the votes (or win the plurality in at least three constituencies) to get seats at all.

This "5% hurdle" accordingly is the most important margin for small parties.

For the past decades, the system was very stable, meaning that only four parties (since 1990 five) were represented in the parliament, always the same parties (counting Merkel's center-right CDU/CSU as one party).

This may change after the election on September 22nd:

The anti-euro party AfD ("Alternative for Germany") was polled at 4% of the votes in a new poll by Forsa institute today (3% in most older polls by other institutes). But pollsters suggest that many people intending to vote for them won't reveal that in polls, because of the stigma still attached to voting for "protest parties". So it's not unlikely that the real potential of that party is higher.

What does the AfD want?

Alternative for Germany - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The founding members of the party are reputable intellectuals (such as economy professors and a former chairman of the employer organization) with a conservative or economically liberal leaning. Their main point is the protest against the euro bailouts with German taxpayer money and the euro currency. They emphasize they're not against the EU and European integration, but against the euro currency and in favor of national sovereignty in economic matters.

The party has taken many efforts to make sure no far-right populists or former neo-Nazis infiltrate the party, but nevertheless flirted with some mild right-populist slogans at local ralleys. But on the bottom line, they're certainly not a far-right party, but rather an anti-euro competition slightly right of Merkel's Christian Democrats.


Here a picture of AfD chairman and professor for economy, Bernd Lucke:
View attachment 67153112


If the current polls are correct, there is a neck-and-neck race between Merkel's coalition of center-right Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) and moderately libertarian Free Democrats (FDP) on one side, and the "left camp" of center-left Social Democrats (SPD), environmentalist Greens and socialist Left Party.

Since the SPD refuse to cooperate with the Left Party, it boils down to a race for the spot of Merkel's junior partner: Will the FDP make it again, or will the SPD replace them as Merkel's junior partners, like they once did 2005-2009?

If the AfD manages to enter the parliament by making more than 5% of the votes, that would make a continuation of Merkel's current CDU/CSU-FDP coalition very improbable. In that case, the most likely outcome is a "grand coalition" between Merkel's CDU/CSU and opposition SPD.

And it would be the first time since 1961 that another right-wing party besides the CDU/CSU enters the parliament.

If Germany were smart, they'd go back to the deutsche mark. Control your own currency, control your own economy.

 

[Red_Dave]

If Germany were smart, they'd go back to the deutsche mark. Control your own currency, control your own economy.

And lose the benefits of an artificially deflated currency to making your exports competitive.

 

[Ikari]

And lose the benefits of an artificially deflated currency to making your exports competitive.

Germany's exports are competitive as is. They're one of the few countries in Europe producing anything, and with German engineering. They're an economic power house, being able to control their own currency is just asserting their own sovereignty.

 

[gunner]

And lose the benefits of an artificially deflated currency to making your exports competitive.

Germany's exports are competitive as is. They're one of the few countries in Europe producing anything, and with German engineering. They're an economic power house, being able to control their own currency is just asserting their own sovereignty.

As Ikari points out, Germany is Europes power house, and is taking advantage of present economic conditions.

Paul

 

[Artevelde]

In any event I certainly hope Merkel can continue as chancellor (preferably with the current coalition).

 

[German guy]

In any event I certainly hope Merkel can continue as chancellor (preferably with the current coalition).

Considering the polls, that is most likely. Merkel's CDU/CSU is strongest party leading more than 10% ahead of the SPD.

Since the SPD declared they won't cooperate with the Left Party, and it's very unlikely the FDP will agree on a coalition with SPD and Greens, the only question is whether Merkel can continue with the FDP, or if the SPD joins them as junior partner, as they already did in Merkel's first term 2005-09.

 

[German guy]

Germany's exports are competitive as is. They're one of the few countries in Europe producing anything, and with German engineering. They're an economic power house, being able to control their own currency is just asserting their own sovereignty.

Germany benefited a lot from the euro, because it made it cheaper for other Europeans to buy German products. That increased German exports considerably. The exchange rate for a new Deutsche Mark would probably skyrocket, resulting in less German exports.

 

[German guy]

If Germany were smart, they'd go back to the deutsche mark. Control your own currency, control your own economy.

You're naturally assuming that national considerations have priority. For many Germans, like for many other Europeans, that's probably true. But I consider myself as much European as German (and as Berlin citizen). And I hope a layer of European identity will grow stronger in the future.

That doesn't mean I think Germany should just throw more German taxpayer money into bottomless pits that are some southern EU countries ... at least not without getting anything in return. But say, if this support resulted in political agreement for closer European integration (and ideally, a democratization of existing European structures), and some structural reforms there, I'm fine with it.

In the end, it matters that the whole of Europe is better off, not just Germany. Because they're our friends and fellow Europeans, and on the long run, Germany can only prosper when our neighbors do well enough too. IIRC, more than 70% of German exports and imports are within the EU.

 

[Artevelde]

Considering the polls, that is most likely. Merkel's CDU/CSU is strongest party leading more than 10% ahead of the SPD.

Since the SPD declared they won't cooperate with the Left Party, and it's very unlikely the FDP will agree on a coalition with SPD and Greens, the only question is whether Merkel can continue with the FDP, or if the SPD joins them as junior partner, as they already did in Merkel's first term 2005-09.

While I doubt that the SPD would materially change the policies of a Merkel-led coalition, I still prefer the current coalition. Only benefit of a coalition with the SPD would be that it might offer the prospect of less trouble with the Bundesrat but the significance of that is limited.

 

[Artevelde]

The euro benefited Germany a lot, because it made it cheaper for other Europeans to buy German products. That increased German exports considerably. The exchange rate for a new Deutsche Mark would probably skyrocket, resulting in less German exports.

On the whole I tend to agree with that, although I would argue that German export strength isn't solely predicated on the existence of the Euro (which is too strong anyway). There are also many other reasons why Germany remains a very competitive economy, with major export strength outside the Euro-area.

 

[Red_Dave]

Germany's exports are competitive as is. They're one of the few countries in Europe producing anything, and with German engineering. They're an economic power house, being able to control their own currency is just asserting their own sovereignty.

Don't get me wrong I'm all for Germany leaving the Euro i'm just making the point that it will benefit the Eurozones Southern members (which suffer from an artificially inflated currency) a lot more then it will benefit Germany.