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First returns in election

Infinite Chaos

Infinite Chaos

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Houghton & Sunderland return a Labour candidate.

Really surprised to see how low the exit polls have the Liberal democrats - projecting 59 seats overall tonight.

Lab 50% of local vote (19,000+)
Cons 21% (8000)


Swing from Labour to Conservatives of 8.4%
 
Why?

What are they in Sunderland now?
 
Pictures of queues of potential voters who were turned away, unable to vote today in Ealing and Leeds.

Should have gone to vote earlier in the day methinks.
 
How many people can choose when to go?


Not everyone's unemployed, though under Labour you're forgiven for mistaking!
 
Darn internet slowed down. Another Labour hold in Sunderland - 11.8% swing to the Tories in Labour's 11th safest seat.

Sunderland results suggest a swing approx 9.9% which across the country COULD give Cameron an absolute majority.
 
Funny discussion going on on Radio 4 with Shirley Williams, Sayeeda Warsi and Margaret Beckett. Beckett's clearly pissed!
 
Sunderland Central results (I'm off to bed soon...)

Lab - 19495
Cons - 12770
Lib Dem - 7191

The tories had this as a long shot - if they took this seat we'd be on for an overall if not huge majority.

Swing 4.5%.
 
Sunderland Central goes to Labour. Lab to Con swing 4.8%. Lower than the exit poll predicted. The other two results showed a greater swing than the exit poll. No firm conclusions yet to be drawn.
 
Republic_Of_Public said:
How many people can choose when to go?


Not everyone's unemployed, though under Labour you're forgiven for mistaking!
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So it's a good thing that Jeremy Kyle viewers get off their oversized posteriors and waddle down to vote on their way to the bookies? Whilst working people have to queue for hours...some have been filmed actually going home and bringing their dinner back with them to eat whilst queueing...and are then denied their democratic right?!!

I went straight from work at 7pm and had to queue for about 20mins. Funny thing is, in my last job, we used to shut production down for 2hrs to allow everyone to go and vote. Mind you, we did work 6x12hr shifts.

p.s. For what it's worth, I have only, ever been unemployed under a tory regime and that was for 2 solid years! Grrrrr
 
Labour'sdoing brilliantly in Scotland, as expected. I hope to god that Gordon Brown will still be our Prime Minister in the morning, but if not, he's certainly putting up a damn good fight.
 
I don't hate the man. Wouldn't vote for him but I'm a long way from hating him. But I could slap Cameron daft with a wet kipper.
 
Ben Bradshaw just kept his seat. Damn.

Turnout tho seems really high
 
It looks like the conservatives cannot get an outright majority, leaving the possibility that the Lib Dems and Labour can form a coalition government. This is advantagous for the Lib Dems, since they can demand several big concessions in return for their support.
 
Anima said:
Labour'sdoing brilliantly in Scotland, as expected. I hope to god that Gordon Brown will still be our Prime Minister in the morning, but if not, he's certainly putting up a damn good fight.
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Actually the Party he heads up is fighting for it's collective life to form the next Government.

Gordon has done the UK irreparable harm during first of all his (his words) Prudent stewardship as Chancellor and latterly as dictator of Nu-Labour Government.

However if as I imagine the Tories will not gain a Majority, Gordon will also only be able to continue as PM with full backing from not only LibDems but will also need all other left wing party's, what price they will extract for their support is something I dread to imagine, certainly it will not be good for the UK.
The only other way he can continue his sinecure is by running a Minority Government, with this method he is subject to winning votes on an Bill by Bill basis.

I would very much doubt Parliament will run to full term before another election is called.

Whether Prudence can restore international belief is UK finances in whatever time he has left must be in doubt.
 
Caroline Lucas will be Britain's first Green Party MP after winning the Brighton Pavilion seat.
Ms Lucas, the leader of the Green Party of England and Wales, notched up a majority of 1,252 over her nearest rival, Labour's Nancy Platts.
She said the people of the constituency had made history by propelling her party to power on a swing of 8.4%.
Green Party Breakthrough: BBC
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Major breakthrough for the Greens, I'm pleased with this result. The only one of the smaller parties to break through so far. Very pleased there's no "BNP Breakthrough" - we can't give in to hate in this country.
 
jujuman13 said:
-- However if as I imagine the Tories will not gain a Majority, Gordon will also only be able to continue as PM with full backing from not only LibDems but will also need all other left wing party's, what price they will extract for their support is something I dread to imagine, certainly it will not be good for the UK.
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Nick Robinson this morning on BBC saying that Gordon Brown will remain Prime Minister until he resigns. If Labour and the Libs form any sort of pact (by current forecasts) they could lose every major vote when you consider the Tories are in a stronger position and have allies.

jujuman13 said:
-- The only other way he can continue his sinecure is by running a Minority Government, with this method he is subject to winning votes on an Bill by Bill basis --
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I have a feeling Cameron will be in better position to form a minority Govt, whether he approaches the Lib-Dems for a coalition remains to be seen.

Brown has already been back into Downing Street this morning, no resignation forthcoming. I think he coveted the position of PM for so many years behind Tony Blair's back that he will do what he can today to cling on.
 
I'm going to have to swallow some humble pie. I dissed the BBC/ITV/Sky exit poll and it turned out to be pretty accurate. I'm fairly surprised the LibDems did so badly, I'm not surprised by the results for the Tories and Labour.

Now, Gordon Brown has the constitutional right to try to form a coalition but any tiny majority he can cobble together would be fragile in the extreme. A Tory-Liberal-Unionist coalition could be stable, but could Cameron and Clegg work together? I think that's a big question mark.

What is interesting is that this has been the first election in my lifetime in which all three main parties have lost. Cameron has failed to shoot the Labour fish in its leaky barrel. Brown has lost his legitimacy in a more emabrrassing way than trailer trash on a Jerry Springer paternity test. Clegg and the LibDems have failed to make their big breakthrough. Again.
 
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I find it amazing how badly the conservatives have done considering the current situation in the UK.

1 seat in Scotland, 6 seats in Wales, no seats in Northern Ireland.

The Tories are an English party not a UK party these days.
 
PeteEU said:
I find it amazing how badly the conservatives have done considering the current situation in the UK.

1 seat in Scotland, 6 seats in Wales, no seats in Northern Ireland.

The Tories are an English party not a UK party these days.
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and have been for a long time. Looks like it will be a few days until we know what is going to happen.

Could be a Lab/LibDem coalition + backed up by other minorities or could be a minority Conservative government.

To some extent it may depend on what Labour really think about the Cons economic policy and how ethically they respond to it. If they really believe it will throw Britain into another depression, they could fight to avoid that or allow it to happen knowing they will get back in in a year or so.

Interestingly for all his woes, Gordon Brown's majority went up by 5000 to a whopping 29,000

I suspect whoever takes over it will be a short term.
 
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The case for electoral reform?

Based on projections:

Con 36% of vote, 307 seats (47% of seats). Seats per 1% of vote = 8.52

Lab 28% of vote, 255 seats (39% of seats). Seats per 1% of vote = 9.1

LibDem 23% of vote, 51 seats (7.8% of seats). Seats per 1% of vote = 2.2

Seems pretty clear to me.
 
PeteEU said:
I find it amazing how badly the conservatives have done considering the current situation in the UK.

1 seat in Scotland, 6 seats in Wales, no seats in Northern Ireland.

The Tories are an English party not a UK party these days.
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We have just had a UK wide election, the Conservatives have clearly won the majority of both the popular vote and the number of seats.

As far as I am concerned, they now have the right to attempt to form a Government. I may dislike Tories but I would be even more angry if Labour stayed in power.

Now about this issue over Scotland. I think the Scottish should get over it and stop complaining (and believe me, some of my friends from up North have been complaining). If the Scottish people or politicans cannot accept the fact the British people have elected a Conservative victory (In the sense that they have the most seats) then Scotland needs to leave the union.

If Labour also starts doing backdeals with Scottish nationalists on the backdrop of the English voting majority Tories is no less than treachery imo.

I think the Tories have done pretty well for a party that has been out of power for over a decade and seeing Lib Dems have given the covert nod to Cameron to form Government, all Brown needs to do is get some humility and step down.
 
Laila said:
We have just had a UK wide election, the Conservatives have clearly won the majority of both the popular vote and the number of seats.
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And yet the conservatives have 90% of their seats in England, where as Labour is far more spread out the whole country.. which is my point. The Tories are the party of England, not of the UK.

As far as I am concerned, they now have the right to attempt to form a Government. I may dislike Tories but I would be even more angry if Labour stayed in power.
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That is not how it works according to the rules. Gordon Brown has first shot at making a government. If he fails, then the Conservatives can have their chance. It is ironic how conservatives always want to change the rules on who gets first shot, but are not for electoral reform ...

Now about this issue over Scotland. I think the Scottish should get over it and stop complaining (and believe me, some of my friends from up North have been complaining). If the Scottish people or politicans cannot accept the fact the British people have elected a Conservative victory (In the sense that they have the most seats) then Scotland needs to leave the union.
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Scotland had in 1983, 23 conservative seats.. today 1 and they barely won that seat. As for Scotland leaving the UK.. good luck on that.

If Labour also starts doing backdeals with Scottish nationalists on the backdrop of the English voting majority Tories is no less than treachery imo.
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Wow wait a min. The Tories do not have a majority of seats or votes. They have the most yes, but not a majority. And as you stated this is a UK election so the Scottish nationalists are as important as the English conservatives.

I think the Tories have done pretty well for a party that has been out of power for over a decade and seeing Lib Dems have given the covert nod to Cameron to form Government, all Brown needs to do is get some humility and step down.
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The Tories have done horribly considering the state of the economy and considering they were miles ahead just a few months ago.

While it is clear that Labour has lost along with the Lib dems, the Tories have hardly won since they could not even under these circumstances gain a clear majority.

This should have been a slam dunk for the conservative party, but what this shows in my opinion, is that people in the UK are not conservative as they once were, and the vote for the Conservatives was more a protest against Labour and Brown than anything else.. and that frankly is dire news for the Tories.

If there is electoral reform, then it will mean the end of the Tory party in power, which is why the are against electoral reform of course.
 
PeteEU said:
And yet the conservatives have 90% of their seats in England, where as Labour is far more spread out the whole country.. which is my point. The Tories are the party of England, not of the UK.
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Conservatives are the party of UK because our first past the post system has given them the most seats.

That is not how it works according to the rules. Gordon Brown has first shot at making a government. If he fails, then the Conservatives can have their chance. It is ironic how conservatives always want to change the rules on who gets first shot, but are not for electoral reform ...
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Yes but not if Lib Dems side against Labour and seeing Nick Clegg has acknowledged Conservatives right to seek to form Government. Brown has no chance of clawing power at num 10.
But hey, if Brown wants to amuse the nation for a few weeks then he can go right ahead but I see a no confidence vote.

As for Scotland leaving the UK.. good luck on that.
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What are you talking about?
All Scotland seems to go on about is leaving the Union with SNP in particular.
This is a perfect time, they can complain about lack of representation (which is funny seeing Scottish MP's can and have come down and voted on English issues and they have their own Parliament and powers) and leave.

Wow wait a min. The Tories do not have a majority of seats or votes. They have the most yes, but not a majority. And as you stated this is a UK election so the Scottish nationalists are as important as the English conservatives.
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They will form Minority Government
As far I can see, Conservatives have a larger mandate to Govern not Labour. No matter how many parties they go begging to join.

The Tories have done horribly considering the state of the economy and considering they were miles ahead just a few months ago
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Considering they needed a swing larger than that of 97. They did brilliant.

While it is clear that Labour has lost along with the Lib dems, the Tories have hardly won since they could not even under these circumstances gain a clear majority.
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They may not have won the "slam dunk" but they sure are more legitimate than Labour. Out of all the parties, they have made gains. Lib Dems and Labour has just had losses
Lib Dems as I have said, has given the nod to Cameron.

And Conservatives doesn't necessarily have to budge on electoral reform.
As a Lib Dem voter, I'd be happy if Nick Clegg got Cameron's agreement on a tax reform, healthcare/education, written constitution, fixed terms, elected Lords, smaller number of MPs, referendum on Europe (please God).

I'd trade electoral reform for all of those and those listed above are do-able things that Cameron and Lib Dems can negotiate on.
 
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