Electoral College Predictions

[Perotista]

trump had a huge uphill climb in 2016. I am simply not paying attention to these polls for a very specific reason.
They have the same sampling issue as the 2016 polls.

They are ignoring the silent voters that support trump and on election day will vote for him even though they will deny it.

Most scientific models based on other criteria are showing a much closer race to trump winning.
If he can get the economy back on foot then he will be ok. Things have tightened up since joe biden started talking.

Did you actually pay attention to the polls in 2016 or just took what you heard and ran with it? Here's all the latest polls from 2016.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein

RCP averages had Clinton winning the popular vote by 3.3 points, in reality she won it by 2.1 points. Now considering these polls have an average margin of error of plus or minus 3 points. What those polls were telling us Hillary's lead was somewhere between 0.3 of a point to 6.3. Her finally tally of 2.1 falls well within that margin of error.

Now take a look at all the polls on the list, almost all of them were within the MOE. All of them with the exception of IBD which had Trump winning the popular vote. You can't get any better results than that. 10 of 11 polls within the MOE. That's quite a record, a very good record for the polls if one knows how to read them.

 

[Linc]

Keep telling yourself that. Trump won Ohio by 8% in 2016.

Isn't it great to see Trump waste valuable resources in AZ, TX, GA, FL, NC, and Ohio?

That's it in a nutshell, though it would be only 11%, 63 to 70. It's worth repeating that the Libertarian party jump over 3 million votes from 2012 to 2016, plus Evan McMullin pulled over 700K. It's reasonable for almost all (say 90%) of those to return home. That makes it only a 6% increase.

5.8% of the voters will not be voting third party this time.

 

[Redress]

Did you actually pay attention to the polls in 2016 or just took what you heard and ran with it? Here's all the latest polls from 2016.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein

RCP averages had Clinton winning the popular vote by 3.3 points, in reality she won it by 2.1 points. Now considering these polls have an average margin of error of plus or minus 3 points. What those polls were telling us Hillary's lead was somewhere between 0.3 of a point to 6.3. Her finally tally of 2.1 falls well within that margin of error.

Now take a look at all the polls on the list, almost all of them were within the MOE. All of them with the exception of IBD which had Trump winning the popular vote. You can't get any better results than that. 10 of 11 polls within the MOE. That's quite a record, a very good record for the polls if one knows how to read them.

He is referring to the fallacy that polls under report republicans and over report democrats. Apparently the number of self-reported democrats and republicans never changes. This belief started with the 2012 election, with republicans believing only the "adjusted" polls that adjusted the polls more favorably for Romney. The "adjusted" polls have never been right yet, but that is not going to stop some people from believing them.

 

[Linc]

Did you actually pay attention to the polls in 2016 or just took what you heard and ran with it? Here's all the latest polls from 2016.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein

RCP averages had Clinton winning the popular vote by 3.3 points, in reality she won it by 2.1 points. Now considering these polls have an average margin of error of plus or minus 3 points. What those polls were telling us Hillary's lead was somewhere between 0.3 of a point to 6.3. Her finally tally of 2.1 falls well within that margin of error.

Now take a look at all the polls on the list, almost all of them were within the MOE. All of them with the exception of IBD which had Trump winning the popular vote. You can't get any better results than that. 10 of 11 polls within the MOE. That's quite a record, a very good record for the polls if one knows how to read them.

I don't get why people don't ignore general polls and just focus on the state ones.
That Trafalgar Group out of your state got 47 of 50 states correctly and hit the EC exactly.
I watch them like a hawk, and generally just add 2 to 3 points to Trump for the rest.

 

[Finch]

Not hardly. In a midterm, a big turnout of the core can swamp everything. See 2014. My opinion is that the Democrats turned out almost all the Trump haters. If they didn't vote in 2018, they likely are not on board now. Given the disaster of the impeachment, some of those who did vote may no longer be on board.


That's it in a nutshell, though it would be only 11%, 63 to 70. It's worth repeating that the Libertarian party jump over 3 million votes from 2012 to 2016, plus Evan McMullin pulled over 700K. It's reasonable for almost all (say 90%) of those to return home. That makes it only a 6% increase.

Don't worry. It's not like you have been calling Trump supporters names, is it?

Disagree, 59 million voter turn out in 2018 for the Dems (which is high for a midterm), however Clinton got 65 million votes 2016....The Dem voter turn out will be higher in 2020 Presidential election than what Clinton got . Disagree on the notion that all 3 million libertarians are going to jump over, not going to happen...Would be surprised if a million jumped over, if they werent on the trump train in 2016 highly doubtful they jump on in 2020...Trump will pick up a couple million votes, but there is no credible source indicating Trump will come close winning the popular vote. I understand you are using your numbers to justify your optimism, but Im going to have to disagree with those optimistic numbers.

 

[noonereal]

I don't get why people don't ignore general polls and just focus on the state ones.

Sadly, this is correct. We have no majority rule as we do for every other elected office in the country.

 

[Finch]

I don't get why people don't ignore general polls and just focus on the state ones.
That Trafalgar Group out of your state got 47 of 50 states correctly and hit the EC exactly.
I watch them like a hawk, and generally just add 2 to 3 points to Trump for the rest.

If I recall Trafalgar Group was one of the least accurate polls in 2018 midterm elections....

 

[Linc]

If I recall Trafalgar Group was one of the least accurate polls in 2018 midterm elections....

I wouldn't mind seeing a link on that, though it sounds plausible.
Polls do try to move voter outcomes.
They waited until late in 2016 to show their hand.

This time around, they have a lot of polls out for them.
And, TG skews to the R's.
NV and NH woke Dems up today.

 

[Patriotic Voter]

View attachment 67295097

Gave Trump Penn, Florida, and NC....Biden still wins by a slim margin.

Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida are the wrong color on that map IMO.

 

[Carolina]

My current prediction

 

[Finch]

Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida are the wrong color on that map IMO.

Out of all the toss ups Ohio is the least chance to flip to blue...jmo

Penn is looking better for biden I do like his chances there, but trump got a high turn out in that state in 2016.

Florida 50/50

 

[Patriotic Voter]

He is referring to the fallacy that polls under report republicans and over report democrats. Apparently the number of self-reported Democrats and Republicans never changes. This belief started with the 2012 election, with Republicans believing only the "adjusted" polls that adjusted the polls more favorably for Romney. The "adjusted" polls have never been right yet, but that is not going to stop some people from believing them.

Every time more Democrats than Republicans respond to polls, elephants scream the poll was biased. Never mind how small the difference was between those parties or why more donkeys than elephants responded to poll questions. Then after the election what we hear is "the silent majority" skewed poll results by refusing to answer questions. Which is it? If people don't want polls to be biased in favor of donkeys, why don't they tell pollsters who will get their votes?

The solution is obvious to me. Survey an equal number of voters from each party. In states with party registrations for voters, that is an easy task.

 

[Jay59]

We'll see come November. I took the 2016 election a bit differently, especially the independent vote. Gallup showed that 54% of all independents disliked both major party candidates.
One in Four Americans Dislike Both Presidential Candidates

Disliking both candidates is almost the definition of independent. If they liked or hated either candidate, they would be on the fence. You will see many posts to the effect that opposition to Trump has grown, "now that they have seen what he's like." If it were true, it would show in the polls, but it doesn't.

Which lead to 12% of independents voting third party, some 9 million voters.

Meh. There are ways to read this that do not track.

The vote for all other candidates went from 1% in 2012 to 6% in 2016. That 5% breaks down 0.84% increase for Jill Stein, 0.83% to write ins and other candidates, 0.62% to Evan McMullin, 2.73% to Gary Johnson. The vote for McMullin and the increase for Johnson represents 3.95 million votes, or over 3.3% of the entire vote.

It's true Trump won the independent vote in 2016 46-42 with the fore mentioned 12% voting third party against both Trump and Clinton. I was one of those 9 million who was so disgusted with both major party candidates, I wanted my vote officially registered as voting against both. So Trump lost the independent vote if you add them up, the 42% who voted for Clinton and the 12% who voted against both, that's 54%.

Gallup hasn't been so kind this year as to give us the amount of folks who dislike both major party candidates. Even so, Biden isn't as disliked by independents as Hillary was. I expect him to pick up at leave half of those 12% who disliked both candidates and voted against both via the third party ballot.

Dislike is one thing. Respect is another.

I think this is important as the Republican Party is still the smaller of the two major parties. They, Trump must win the independent vote or lose the election. The Democrats just have to keep it close, not win them. Trump won the independent vote in Pennsylvania by a 48-41 margin, in Michigan by a 52-35 margin and in Wisconsin by a 50-40 margin. https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/wisconsin/president

Turnout has always been an issue, particularly for Democrats.

I don't think he can pull that off a second time. Give it 7 plus weeks and we'll know one way or the other.

Trump does not need to do it again. He has almost 4 million defectors he can bring back. Also, his support in 2016 was somewhat timid. Now they know it can be done and they have an ax to grind. Democrats and the media have not been polite the last four years.

 

[Ethel2]

Trump isn't leading in a single state Hillary Clinton won in 2016. However Biden is leading in Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Then as you stated, Georgia, Texas, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, all states Trump won in 2016 is pretty darn close with Florida, Ohio and North Carolina switching back and forth from poll to poll.

Trump has a huge uphill climb if he is to win reelection. Not impossible, but a very long, hard climb.

Biden has consistently led by 7-10 points for months. Its the most consistent lead since at least 1940. Most people have made up their minds. Even if the donkey wins every undecided vote he will still lose. He will try to steal the election.....and if he loses he won't leave willingly:

New CBS News/YouGov polls reveal that former Vice President Joe Biden maintains his grip on the 2020 race for president.

Biden's up 52% to 42% over President Donald Trump among likely voters nationally, and he has a 50% to 44% edge over Trump in the key battleground state of Wisconsin as well.
Biden's 10 point and 6 point advantages are the exact same they were when CBS News/YouGov polled the contests before the party conventions.
The polls are reflective of a race that barely budges even after two conventions, protests and unrest in some cities over police brutality and as the nation navigates the coronavirus pandemic. Indeed, the stability of this race is record breaking when looking at polling dating back to 1940.

Joe Biden: polls reveal lead remains the steadiest on record - CNNPolitics

 

[Jay59]

A math person doesn't assume that all 230 million eligible voters will turn out.

Nor did I.

Democrats didn't vote in 2010 and 2014. R's barely voted in 2014, but it was enough to flip 9 Senate seats. Why do you assume all 94 million people who didn't vote in 2016 will vote this time?

Was there a point?

Isn't it great to see Trump waste valuable resources in AZ, TX, GA, FL, NC, and Ohio? 5.8% of the voters will not be voting third party this time.

On this we agree. The bulk of those who don't vote 3rd party will vote for Trump. See last post for analysis and hard numbers.

 

[Linc]

On this we agree. The bulk of those who don't vote 3rd party will vote for Trump. See last post for analysis and hard numbers.

The term 'bulk' is Non-Euclidean.
Should be fun to see where those 3rd-party voters go in the swing states.

 

[Carolina]

Nor did I.


Was there a point?


On this we agree. The bulk of those who don't vote 3rd party will vote for Trump. See last post for analysis and hard numbers.

Third party voters from 2016 are backing Biden 2-to-1

Poll: Third party voters from 2016 are backing Biden 2-to-1

 

[Jay59]

Disagree, 59 million voter turn out in 2018 for the Dems (which is high for a midterm), however Clinton got 65 million votes 2016....The Dem voter turn out will be higher in 2020 Presidential election than what Clinton got . Disagree on the notion that all 3 million libertarians are going to jump over, not going to happen...Would be surprised if a million jumped over, if they werent on the trump train in 2016 highly doubtful they jump on in 2020...Trump will pick up a couple million votes, but there is no credible source indicating Trump will come close winning the popular vote. I understand you are using your numbers to justify your optimism, but Im going to have to disagree with those optimistic numbers.

Nothing you said invalidates the premise.

There were 26 million more votes cast in 2016. All that is required is that Clinton received 6 million of them, not even one in four.

Bear in mind that there were not 3 million Libertarian votes. There were 4.5 million. If the number goes back to 1.5 million, as in 2012, then the bulk of the movement will be away from Biden.

 

[Finch]

Nothing you said invalidates the premise.

There were 26 million more votes cast in 2016. All that is required is that Clinton received 6 million of them, not even one in four.

Not sure where that 26million number is coming from...2018 midterm 59 million dems voted to 50 million repubs...My premise is the fact that the Dems had very high turn out in 2018 and there's no indication that it is slowing down for Biden...And I disagreed that Trump will be getting all the 3rd party voters, he will be lucky to get half. However. I did agree with your premise that trump may get more votes in 2020 but only a couple more million votes or so...If I was going to make a prediction I would say Biden will edge Trump 69 mill to 65...Biden winning electoral by slim margin...But we shall see.

 

[upsideguy]

Trump isn't leading in a single state Hillary Clinton won in 2016. However Biden is leading in Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Then as you stated, Georgia, Texas, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, all states Trump won in 2016 is pretty darn close with Florida, Ohio and North Carolina switching back and forth from poll to poll.

Trump has a huge uphill climb if he is to win reelection. Not impossible, but a very long, hard climb.

I do take exception to the characterization that Florida has been switching back and forth poll to poll. No, Florida polls have very consistently showed Biden as up.

Florida President: general election Polls | FiveThirtyEight

Why that is important is that why Biden does not need Florida to win; Florida is a MUST WIN for Trump. As long as Biden is up in Florida, he is very likely to win the overall election.

 

[Jay59]

Not sure where that 26million number is coming from...2018 midterm 59 million dems voted to 50 million repubs...

137 million in 2016 minus 111 million in 2018. It's not rocket science.

My premise is the fact that the Dems had very high turn out in 2018 and there's no indication that it is slowing down for Biden.

Even if true, it says almost nothing about Republican and independent turnout. Given that the turnout numbers were at record levels for a midterm, there is good reason to believe Biden may get less of the same pool of voters.

And I disagreed that Trump will be getting all the 3rd party voters, he will be lucky to get half.

Read for comprehension. I said basically all of Evan McMullin's 700K and the large bulk of the Libertarian increase. If you want to make the case that half the libertarian vote is closer to Democrat than Republican, I'd love to see it. I'm going with 90% Republican

However. I did agree with your premise that trump may get more votes in 2020 but only a couple more million votes or so...If I was going to make a prediction I would say Biden will edge Trump 69 mill to 65...Biden winning electoral by slim margin...But we shall see.

If you mean a couple million more from former third part voters, I think you're light. If you mean a couple million total, check out the enthusiasm numbers. There may be 5 million in that alone.

We'll see. Trump has been letting Biden carry the torch all summer. Now that the fall is here, expect Trump to get serious.

 

[Jay59]

Third party voters from 2016 are backing Biden 2-to-1
Poll: Third party voters from 2016 are backing Biden 2-to-1

That story really misrepresents things. The poll had six third party voters. Here is the actual question and replies.

A lot of people are unable to get out and vote for many reasons. Did you happen to vote in the November 2016
election for president? (IF “YES,” ASK Which of the following statements describes your vote? (ROTATE
STATEMENTS:1-4 TOP TO BOTTOM, BOTTOM TO TOP) (IF “SOMEONE ELSE,” ASK And, was your vote for Gary Johnson, Jill Stein, or someone else? +
Voted for Trump because you liked him or his policies ....................23
Voted for Trump because you did not like Clinton or her policies .........15
Voted for Clinton because you did not like Trump or his policies .........18
Voted for Clinton because you liked her or her policies ..............23
Voted for Gary Johnson (VOL) ......................................2
Voted for Jill Stein (VOL) .............................................1
Voted for someone else (VOL) ......................................3
Voted, not sure ..........................................................1
No, Did Not Vote ........................................................12
Not sure..................................................................2

 

[ReubenSherr]

Third party voters from 2016 are backing Biden 2-to-1

Poll: Third party voters from 2016 are backing Biden 2-to-1

Kanye West: Pressure to Vote Hillary Clinton Felt Like 'Arranged Marriage' - Rolling Stone

The dynamics of each presidential race are unique.

 

[Finch]

137 million in 2016 minus 111 million in 2018. It's not rocket science.


Even if true, it says almost nothing about Republican and independent turnout. Given that the turnout numbers were at record levels for a midterm, there is good reason to believe Biden may get less of the same pool of voters.


Read for comprehension. I said basically all of Evan McMullin's 700K and the large bulk of the Libertarian increase. If you want to make the case that half the libertarian vote is closer to Democrat than Republican, I'd love to see it. I'm going with 90% Republican


If you mean a couple million more from former third part voters, I think you're light. If you mean a couple million total, check out the enthusiasm numbers. There may be 5 million in that alone.

We'll see. Trump has been letting Biden carry the torch all summer. Now that the fall is here, expect Trump to get serious.

I just dont see your projected numbers coming to fruition... But like I said, we'll see.

 

[RAMOSS]

If I recall Trafalgar Group was one of the least accurate polls in 2018 midterm elections....

It was actually Rasmussen that was least accurate.