Electoral College Predictions

[Patriotic Voter]

We talk a lot about which states Joe Biden or Donald Trump could win this year, but this is only relevant if Electoral College votes are noted in the discussion. That is how we know which states someone needs to win to reach 270 (the minimum to win the election). So I looked up the Electoral Map on Real Clear Politics, which includes how many votes are assigned to each state. Gray means tossup. You can also create your own map.

RealClearPolitics - 2020 Election Maps - 2020 Electoral College Map

 

[PNW Guy]

We talk a lot about which states Joe Biden or Donald Trump could win this year, but this is only relevant if Electoral College votes are noted in the discussion. That is how we know which states someone needs to win to reach 270 (the minimum to win the election). So I looked up the Electoral Map on Real Clear Politics, which includes how many votes are assigned to each state. Gray means tossup. You can also create your own map.

RealClearPolitics - 2020 Election Maps - 2020 Electoral College Map

If the vote is heard, will be a landslide for Biden, clearly. What I worry about is the cheating. The Trump® "team", led by Bill Barr is at war with our very democratic elections. I really fear they can "win" certainly not legitamately though. Trump will carry too many southern state, but way too many votes.

We have the propagandists at Fox, OANN and all the others to thank for this disonance. This should be NOWHERE near as close as it is....

 

[rickc]

RealClearPolitics - 2020 Election Maps - 2020 Electoral College Map

 

[Cardinal]

This map is actually a lot more nervewracking than it looks at first glance.

 

[Cardinal]

Personally, I like my own interactive map better because I can add a "tilt" color that shows a lead inside the margin of error (1-4% lead). Less than 1% lead is a dead heat.

 

[Cardinal]

Florida is, once again, fingernail-bitingly important. The reason for this is because Florida uses some kind of early reporting system (I forget the details) that will result in the state calling their results on November 3rd. The reason why this is important is because if Biden wins this state, that's it....the election is over and he wins. If Trump gets it, there are still plenty of paths left open to Biden, but the problem is this: on the day of the election, the in-person voting will be counted first, showing Trump with a clear win. But 65% of mail-in ballots will be for Biden, and those will continue to be counted in the following month(s) and Trump's lead will vanish, possibly to a loss. The problem? Trump will use every mechanism at his disposal to stop those counts, via the courts and possibly even through the DOJ itself, somehow. If he loses Florida it's going to be much harder for him to pull this stunt.

Since we live in a cruel, unfair and cold universe, Trump is likely going to take Florida, and 2020 is going to be 2000 on methamphetamine.

 

[Perotista]

We talk a lot about which states Joe Biden or Donald Trump could win this year, but this is only relevant if Electoral College votes are noted in the discussion. That is how we know which states someone needs to win to reach 270 (the minimum to win the election). So I looked up the Electoral Map on Real Clear Politics, which includes how many votes are assigned to each state. Gray means tossup. You can also create your own map.

RealClearPolitics - 2020 Election Maps - 2020 Electoral College Map

I think Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin will revert to their long history of voting Democratic and go to Biden. Biden also picks up Arizona. So without calling Ohio, North Carolina and Florida, I have Biden 289-186 which make those three states irrelevant. One can give them to whoever one wants to.

 

[weprayforusall]

I'm from Texas and I can tell you, on this election cycle we Texan's are voting for Biden

 

[Redress]

I think Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin will revert to their long history of voting Democratic and go to Biden. Biden also picks up Arizona. So without calling Ohio, North Carolina and Florida, I have Biden 289-186 which make those three states irrelevant. One can give them to whoever one wants to.

This is kinda one of the advantages Biden has right now. He needs to hold the states Clinton got(which does not look really hard), and regain Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin(which is very doable) and he wins. Trump in the meantime has to hold all those states he took last time that look close now, such as Georgia, Florida, Texas. If he loses just one of those, he can't win, so he has to pour a lot of resources into them, while Biden can effectively ignore them for the most part and focus on Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

 

[Linc]

I think Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin will revert to their long history of voting Democratic and go to Biden. Biden also picks up Arizona. So without calling Ohio, North Carolina and Florida, I have Biden 289-186 which make those three states irrelevant. One can give them to whoever one wants to.

Trump can lose 37 EVs and still win, as he’d win at 269-269. That could be losing PA, MI, and ME-02. Plenty of combos. D states of NH, MN, and NV were won by a total of only 74k, so there’s definitely that.

AZ was only lost by 91k and McCain’s coattails won that one. Same with Rubio helping Trump in FL, where Trump only won by 113k, whereas Rubio won by 713k.

I don’t see as much ticket-splitting this time in crucial Senate/Potus states, such as NC and AZ. I see this far more explosive than most simply because of Bill Barr and election tampering.

 

[Aunt Antifa]

If the vote is heard, will be a landslide for Biden, clearly. What I worry about is the cheating. The Trump® "team", led by Bill Barr is at war with our very democratic elections. I really fear they can "win" certainly not legitamately though. Trump will carry too many southern state, but way too many votes.

We have the propagandists at Fox, OANN and all the others to thank for this disonance. This should be NOWHERE near as close as it is....

It’s gonna be a landslide. Whatever that looks like now, but there won’t be any doubt Trump has lost the EC. ANd I know we are all bracing for the worst and there will probably be shenanigans but it won’t matter. And he wont’ fight too hard. I’m one of those folks that thinks he’s just fine retiring to Mar A Lago to heckle Biden and everyone else.

 

[Cardinal]

Trump can lose 37 EVs and still win, as he’d win at 269-269. That could be losing PA, MI, and ME-02. Plenty of combos. D states of NH, MN, and NV were won by a total of only 74k, so there’s definitely that.

AZ was only lost by 91k and McCain’s coattails won that one. Same with Rubio helping Trump in FL, where Trump only won by 113k, whereas Rubio won by 713k.

I don’t see as much ticket-splitting this time in crucial Senate/Potus states, such as NC and AZ. I see this far more explosive than most simply because of Bill Barr and election tampering.

The only point I would correct in your post is that Trump would actually lose in a perfect tie, since the House would pick the President and the Senate would pick the VP.

 

[Ethel2]

This map is actually a lot more nervewracking than it looks at first glance.

View attachment 67295051

I think that map is about right except I think the donkey will carry Florida. Its going to be a landslide with the dems taking the senate as well. How can it not be? The donkey has the blood of hundreds of thousands of Americans on his filthy hands.

 

[Ethel2]

I'm from Texas and I can tell you, on this election cycle we Texan's are voting for Biden

I would take a bite out of my hat if that happens.

 

[Linc]

The only point I would correct in your post is that Trump would actually lose in a perfect tie, since the House would pick the President and the Senate would pick the VP.

Well, each state only gets one vote when the House elects the President. R’s have more state delegations than D’s do. D’s must flip at least 38 EVs to win.

Make that the newly elected House, so some states could be tied and have no vote, such as PA currently. It is correct to say that the new Senate would elect the VP.

 

[MTAtech]

Personally, I like my own interactive map better because I can add a "tilt" color that shows a lead inside the margin of error (1-4% lead). Less than 1% lead is a dead heat.

View attachment 67295054

This is mine. I think FL and NC can go either way.

 

[MTAtech]

I'm from Texas and I can tell you, on this election cycle we Texan's are voting for Biden

I hope you are right. 538 has it as a tie but give DT a 68% chance of winning TX, and R's usually win TX, so I gave it to them on my map.

 

[Patriotic Voter]

This is kinda one of the advantages Biden has right now. He needs to hold the states Clinton got(which does not look really hard), and regain Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin(which is very doable) and he wins. Trump in the meantime has to hold all those states he took last time that look close now, such as Georgia, Florida, Texas. If he loses just one of those, he can't win, so he has to pour a lot of resources into them, while Biden can effectively ignore them for the most part and focus on Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

Joe Biden needs to campaign harder in Florida and Texas than any other swing states, which both went to Donald Trump in 2016. RCP features pie charts for all 50 states and DC that show percentages of each candidate's support rounded up to whole numbers. I could rearrange them to display in tightest to most lopsided order.

 

[PNW Guy]

This is mine. I think FL and NC can go either way.

View attachment 67295066

I think they both go Trump® (though I bet there is MUCH controversy on how Florida calls it a Trump win), but your map is basically just about same as I came up with.

That's TOO close, it won't probably reflect on election day, and I expect Bill Barr to use the FULL powers of his office to make it into a Trump® win. I forsee MASSIVE legal battles to negate mail in votes, for MONTHS, likely doomed to fail unless they get a chance to throw that Jellyfish Cruz in the court (can RGB hold out? :shock: ), then bank it Trump® if he's anywhere close to only 6 million votes down.

That's basically my most likely prediction of the final deal. Trump® reselected by the Injustice department. Hopefully senate races will flip it, and it will be the lamest duck that ever ducked, and tossed on it's ear soon. I hate to say it, but, that's what I'm currently banking on as a likely BEST case scenario.

There's too much idiocy down south, too many scared racists, and the problem is, the west coast, which is literally ablaze, will account for his entire advantage, so all these red state orange™ splooge guzzlers, can feel justified that "Trump® won again, suck it libs!"; which is really the only part of his platform relevant to 9 out of 10 of them.

In popularity, a landslide, in reality, a rigged bunch of staged "illegal procedures", by the coverup general, done deal....

I do think in the aftermath, even without 66 senators, will end up much easier grabbing the few needed senators to toss him, or god I hope so anyway....

Problem is, can they deal to toss Pence too? That I doubt, very strongly.....

Clearly, Pence has orange™ baby **** all over his hands and face, but the GOP will protect him, sealing the power in even if they are willing to toss Trump® under a bus once they got all the mileage they could out of him.

 

[digitusmedius]

Florida is, once again, fingernail-bitingly important. The reason for this is because Florida uses some kind of early reporting system (I forget the details) that will result in the state calling their results on November 3rd. The reason why this is important is because if Biden wins this state, that's it....the election is over and he wins. If Trump gets it, there are still plenty of paths left open to Biden, but the problem is this: on the day of the election, the in-person voting will be counted first, showing Trump with a clear win. But 65% of mail-in ballots will be for Biden, and those will continue to be counted in the following month(s) and Trump's lead will vanish, possibly to a loss. The problem? Trump will use every mechanism at his disposal to stop those counts, via the courts and possibly even through the DOJ itself, somehow. If he loses Florida it's going to be much harder for him to pull this stunt.

Since we live in a cruel, unfair and cold universe, Trump is likely going to take Florida, and 2020 is going to be 2000 on methamphetamine.

Especially since the state managed to get the courts to nullify the overwhelming will of the voters who lifted the ban on ex-felons voting. Having low friends in high places is how Republicans succeed in politics

 

[PNW Guy]

Joe Biden needs to campaign harder in Florida and Texas than any other swing states, which both went to Donald Trump in 2016. RCP features pie charts for all 50 states and DC that show percentages of each candidate's support rounded up to whole numbers. I could rearrange them to display in tightest to most lopsided order.

I agree on Florida, but Texas is a gamble to throw too much into. I think he pulls Florida MUCH easier than Texas, but Florida, if it's close, I trust less to be honest with results, ANY opening to negate something to tip it Trump™ and Florida has crack teams of lawyers on that! I just think campaigning enough, he could win Florida "bigly" enough, that it'd be undeniable Florida rejected Trump™, and with not a crazy big effort either, he screwed us on COVID. Redneck Texans less likey to hear that reality than retirees in Florida I think.

The Hispanic vote is fickle in FL because of Cubans going Trump, but the minority vote in Texas is how Biden could win it if he did. Still I think Texas has higher than average Latino support for Trump. All those tech Jobs Texas was so proud of brought in a lot of blue vote. Sure would be great to see Biden win both though, either one though is more than enough. I REALLY don't trust FL on close calls though, and IDK how anyone could?

 

[MTAtech]

I think they both go Trump® (though I bet there is MUCH controversy on how Florida calls it a Trump win), but your map is basically just about same as I came up with.

That's TOO close, it won't probably reflect on election day, and I expect Bill Barr to use the FULL powers of his office to make it into a Trump® win. I forsee MASSIVE legal battles to negate mail in votes, for MONTHS, likely doomed to fail unless they get a chance to throw that Jellyfish Cruz in the court (can RGB hold out? :shock: ), then bank it Trump® if he's anywhere close to only 6 million votes down.

That's basically my most likely prediction of the final deal. Trump® reselected by the Injustice department. Hopefully senate races will flip it, and it will be the lamest duck that ever ducked, and tossed on it's ear soon. I hate to say it, but, that's what I'm currently banking on as a likely BEST case scenario.

There's too much idiocy down south, too many scared racists, and the problem is, the west coast, which is literally ablaze, will account for his entire advantage, so all these red state orange™ splooge guzzlers, can feel justified that "Trump® won again, suck it libs!"; which is really the only part of his platform relevant to 9 out of 10 of them.

In popularity, a landslide, in reality, a rigged bunch of staged "illegal procedures", by the coverup general, done deal....

I do think in the aftermath, even without 66 senators, will end up much easier grabbing the few needed senators to toss him, or god I hope so anyway....

Problem is, can they deal to toss Pence too? That I doubt, very strongly.....

Clearly, Pence has orange™ baby **** all over his hands and face, but the GOP will protect him, sealing the power in even if they are willing to toss Trump® under a bus once they got all the mileage they could out of him.

I agree. There will be massive chaos after the election -- just like Putin wanted.

 

[Perotista]

This is kinda one of the advantages Biden has right now. He needs to hold the states Clinton got(which does not look really hard), and regain Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin(which is very doable) and he wins. Trump in the meantime has to hold all those states he took last time that look close now, such as Georgia, Florida, Texas. If he loses just one of those, he can't win, so he has to pour a lot of resources into them, while Biden can effectively ignore them for the most part and focus on Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

Trump isn't leading in a single state Hillary Clinton won in 2016. However Biden is leading in Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Then as you stated, Georgia, Texas, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, all states Trump won in 2016 is pretty darn close with Florida, Ohio and North Carolina switching back and forth from poll to poll.

Trump has a huge uphill climb if he is to win reelection. Not impossible, but a very long, hard climb.

 

[Cardinal]

This is mine. I think FL and NC can go either way.

View attachment 67295066

I'm just working off 538's current averages.

 

[Perotista]

Trump can lose 37 EVs and still win, as he’d win at 269-269. That could be losing PA, MI, and ME-02. Plenty of combos. D states of NH, MN, and NV were won by a total of only 74k, so there’s definitely that.

AZ was only lost by 91k and McCain’s coattails won that one. Same with Rubio helping Trump in FL, where Trump only won by 113k, whereas Rubio won by 713k.

I don’t see as much ticket-splitting this time in crucial Senate/Potus states, such as NC and AZ. I see this far more explosive than most simply because of Bill Barr and election tampering.

Yes, there certainly are reverse coat tails where a senate candidate helps the presidential candidate as you pointed out. I don't see Trump making the three peat of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania this time around. Those three states will go back to their normal ways of voting Democratic.

This time around, I think Kelly the democratic senate candidate in Arizona will pull Biden to a win in Arizona. Another reverse coat tail.