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Electoral College Predictions

I agree on Florida, but Texas is a gamble to throw too much into. I think he pulls Florida MUCH easier than Texas, but Florida, if it's close, I trust less to be honest with results, ANY opening to negate something to tip it Trump™ and Florida has crack teams of lawyers on that! I just think campaigning enough, he could win Florida "bigly" enough, that it'd be undeniable Florida rejected Trump™ and with not a crazy big effort either, he screwed us on COVID. Redneck Texans less likey to hear that reality than retirees in Florida I think.

The Hispanic vote is fickle in FL because of Cubans going Trump, but the minority vote in Texas is how Biden could win it if he did. Still I think Texas has higher than average Latino support for Trump. All those tech Jobs Texas was so proud of brought in a lot of blue vote. Sure would be great to see Biden win both though, either one though is more than enough. I REALLY don't trust FL on close calls though, and IDK how anyone could?

You know what makes no sense in Florida?

It can have runoff elections for local races, but not the President, despite needing one in 2000. Go figure. All Jeb Bush did was change the voting method to one that prevented me from correcting a huge mistake in 2018.

Why did you put TM after the name Trump?
 
Trump isn't leading in a single state Hillary Clinton won in 2016. However Biden is leading in Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Then as you stated, Georgia, Texas, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, all states Trump won in 2016 is pretty darn close with Florida, Ohio and North Carolina switching back and forth from poll to poll.

Trump has a huge uphill climb if he is to win reelection. Not impossible, but a very long, hard climb.
2016 was hard. In addition to facing a better funded, more capable opponent, Trump was the outsider with unknown ability. To some degree that worked for him, but the Libertarian party had a 3 million vote jump from 2012 and Evan McMullin sucked off another 700,000 votes. This year, Trump is well established as capable, has a funding and enthusiasm advantage and is running as incumbent.

More concretely, Trump has all the votes he needs in the 43% support he routinely draw in polls. Given the same turnout ratios as 2016, we will get very close to 140 million total votes. If 75% of Trump supporters vote, then he gets 71 million votes, enough for a clear majority. This sort of analysis explains why Democrats are not acting confident, even with support of the polls. Indeed, they are acting frightened.

Prediction Trump 350 - Biden 188.
 
Trump can lose 37 EVs and still win, as he’d win at 269-269. That could be losing PA, MI, and ME-02. Plenty of combos. D states of NH, MN, and NV were won by a total of only 74k, so there’s definitely that.

That is constitutionally impossible. The House of Representatives can't add an extra delegate to give one of them the 270th Electoral College vote.

Fortunately Donald Trump has no chance of causing that ridiculous tie.
 
2016 was hard. In addition to facing a better funded, more capable opponent, Trump was the outsider with unknown ability. To some degree that worked for him, but the Libertarian party had a 3 million vote jump from 2012 and Evan McMullin sucked off another 700,000 votes. This year, Trump is well established as capable, has a funding and enthusiasm advantage and is running as incumbent.

More concretely, Trump has all the votes he needs in the 43% support he routinely draw in polls. Given the same turnout ratios as 2016, we will get very close to 140 million total votes. If 75% of Trump supporters vote, then he gets 71 million votes, enough for a clear majority. This sort of analysis explains why Democrats are not acting confident, even with support of the polls. Indeed, they are acting frightened.

Prediction Trump 350 - Biden 188.

Did you take General Math at Trump U.?
 
That is constitutionally impossible. The House of Representatives can't add an extra delegate to give one of them the 270th Electoral College vote.

Fortunately Donald Trump has no chance of causing that ridiculous tie.

They’re called ‘contingent elections’.
 
Well, each state only gets one vote when the House elects the President. Rs have more state delegations than Ds do. Ds must flip at least 38 EVs to win.

Make that the newly elected House, so some states could be tied and have no vote, such as PA currently. It is correct to say that the new Senate would elect the VP.

There can be a "faithless voter" in the HOR. Although unlikely in this scenario, a Republican Representative could legally vote for Joe Biden.

In the Senate, there would be a conflict of interest because VP candidate Kamala Harris did not resign this summer. Can she vote for herself?
 
Trump has already spent more money on campaigning than any other presidential candidate and yet as an incumbent is trailing.

This may result in reduced capability to campaign in the remaining 2 months. As Stormy said, he isn't a distance runner.


Trump’s re-election campaign has squandered its early cash advantage, spending over $800 million of the $1.1 billion it raised from early 2019 to July, a New York Times report has found, forcing the campaign to implement stricter financial planning for the months ahead.


https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump...lmost-dollar200-million-cash-advantage-report
 
2016 was hard. In addition to facing a better funded, more capable opponent, Trump was the outsider with unknown ability. To some degree that worked for him, but the Libertarian party had a 3 million vote jump from 2012 and Evan McMullin sucked off another 700,000 votes. This year, Trump is well established as capable, has a funding and enthusiasm advantage and is running as incumbent.

More concretely, Trump has all the votes he needs in the 43% support he routinely draw in polls. Given the same turnout ratios as 2016, we will get very close to 140 million total votes. If 75% of Trump supporters vote, then he gets 71 million votes, enough for a clear majority. This sort of analysis explains why Democrats are not acting confident, even with support of the polls. Indeed, they are acting frightened.

Prediction Trump 350 - Biden 188.

You do understand the Dems out voted the Party of Trump in 2018 midterms by 10 percentage points right? Trump base voted just the same....your number don't add up....
 
Did you take General Math at Trump U.?

He did not take general math in high school, apparently. It is not possible to have 43% of the popular vote and clinch 350 electoral votes.
 
If the vote is heard, will be a landslide for Biden, clearly. What I worry about is the cheating. The Trump® "team", led by Bill Barr is at war with our very democratic elections. I really fear they can "win" certainly not legitamately though. Trump will carry too many southern state, but way too many votes.

We have the propagandists at Fox, OANN and all the others to thank for this disonance. This should be NOWHERE near as close as it is....

And that is a partial explanation of a divided US
 
Did you take General Math at Trump U.?
Bachelors in Mathematics.

You do understand the Dems out voted the Party of Trump in 2018 midterms by 10 percentage points right? Trump base voted just the same....your number don't add up....
I highlighted the key word.

Democrats whipped up the base with the promise of impeachment if they won the House. That enthusiasm gap is reversed this year.

He did not take general math in high school, apparently. It is not possible to have 43% of the popular vote and clinch 350 electoral votes.
I won awards in HS Mathematics competitions--1st in state in Geometry and Trig.

It's not hard. The expected pool is 220 million eligible voters and 140 million expected votes. 43% of 220 million is 94.6 million votes. 75% of that is 71.0 million votes, more than 50%. This is without any other votes, ie undecided voters, Democrats flipping or shy Republicans. For a benchmark, Hillary had 65.8 million votes, equivalent to 67.1 with 2020 population.

Do you understand why Democrats are acting scared. their internal polling is telling them the same thing.
 
I highlighted the key word.

Democrats whipped up the base with the promise of impeachment if they won the House. That enthusiasm gap is reversed this year

Your rebuttal is an opinion that the Dems base is not as enthused to vote out trump than it was in 2018 midterm?

Haha..okay, ill disagree with that.
 
Trump isn't leading in a single state Hillary Clinton won in 2016. However Biden is leading in Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Then as you stated, Georgia, Texas, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, all states Trump won in 2016 is pretty darn close with Florida, Ohio and North Carolina switching back and forth from poll to poll.

Trump has a huge uphill climb if he is to win reelection. Not impossible, but a very long, hard climb.

Ohio should go to Biden after its former nine-term 12th District Representative and two-term Governor sent a very strong message against Trump for the DNC.
 
I'm from Texas and I can tell you, on this election cycle we Texan's are voting for Biden

You can say that you are voting for biden. you are not all texans.
You do not speak for the rest of texas.
 
Trump isn't leading in a single state Hillary Clinton won in 2016. However Biden is leading in Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Then as you stated, Georgia, Texas, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, all states Trump won in 2016 is pretty darn close with Florida, Ohio and North Carolina switching back and forth from poll to poll.

Trump has a huge uphill climb if he is to win reelection. Not impossible, but a very long, hard climb.

trump had a huge uphill climb in 2016. I am simply not paying attention to these polls for a very specific reason.
They have the same sampling issue as the 2016 polls.

They are ignoring the silent voters that support trump and on election day will vote for him even though they will deny it.

Most scientific models based on other criteria are showing a much closer race to trump winning.
If he can get the economy back on foot then he will be ok. Things have tightened up since joe biden started talking.
 
Your rebuttal is an opinion that the Democratic base is not as enthused to vote out Trump than it was in 2018 midterm?

Haha..okay, I'll disagree with that.

He thinks only his own wishful thinking matters. Educated voters know what happened two years after Donald Trump literally stole the election is more important for the purposes of this thread than how many stupid voters decided he is better than Hillary Clinton.
 
You know what makes no sense in Florida?

It can have runoff elections for local races, but not the President, despite needing one in 2000. Go figure. All Jeb Bush did was change the voting method to one that prevented me from correcting a huge mistake in 2018.

Why did you put TM after the name Trump?

Because all he really is is a nearly empty suit, a failed orange™ painted brand name leading a cult. He's a sick man to begin with, losing his mind for other reasons unknown, but with him it's all about the take. EVERYTHING is about branding and is also for sale. It's my way of protesting it I guess.
 
He thinks only his own wishful thinking matters. Educated voters know what happened two years after Donald Trump literally stole the election is more important for the purposes of this thread than how many stupid voters decided he is better than Hillary Clinton.

I agree with his premise that Trump may get more votes this year, however he thinks Trump is going to increase his voter turn out by almost 20% (60mil to 71mil) not happening...Clinton was not an attractive candidate, Dems thought she had it in the bag, and the turn out for her was not great. She still managed to get 65 million votes. This time around is different.
 
We talk a lot about which states Joe Biden or Donald Trump could win this year, but this is only relevant if Electoral College votes are noted in the discussion. That is how we know which states someone needs to win to reach 270 (the minimum to win the election). So I looked up the Electoral Map on Real Clear Politics, which includes how many votes are assigned to each state. Gray means tossup. You can also create your own map.

RealClearPolitics - 2020 Election Maps - 2020 Electoral College Map

The site lets you create your own map.

here's mine as of sep 13. Yes it could change next week or next month.

I was generous, giving Biden WI, AZ and NV. I left three big ones, OH, NC and FL as toss-ups. Can't see trump winning at this stage. Biden could lose one of the three I suspect he'll get, but take just one toss up and still win. Trump needs all three toss-ups and at least one of Biden's.

my map sep 13.jpg
 
electoral prediction.jpg

Gave Trump Penn, Florida, and NC....Biden still wins by a slim margin.
 
Your rebuttal is an opinion that the Dems base is not as enthused to vote out trump than it was in 2018 midterm? Haha..okay, ill disagree with that.
Not hardly. In a midterm, a big turnout of the core can swamp everything. See 2014. My opinion is that the Democrats turned out almost all the Trump haters. If they didn't vote in 2018, they likely are not on board now. Given the disaster of the impeachment, some of those who did vote may no longer be on board.

Ohio should go to Biden after its former nine-term 12th District Representative and two-term Governor sent a very strong message against Trump for the DNC.
Keep telling yourself that. Trump won Ohio by 8% in 2016.

He thinks only his own wishful thinking matters. Educated voters know what happened two years after Donald Trump literally stole the election is more important for the purposes of this thread than how many stupid voters decided he is better than Hillary Clinton.
Pot, meet Kettle. I have solid factual reasons for my opinion. You have fake news, alternate facts and wishful thinking.

I agree with his premise that Trump may get more votes this year, however he thinks Trump is going to increase his voter turn out by almost 20% (60mil to 71mil) not happening...Clinton was not an attractive candidate, Dems thought she had it in the bag, and the turn out for her was not great. She still managed to get 65 million votes. This time around is different.
That's it in a nutshell, though it would be only 11%, 63 to 70. It's worth repeating that the Libertarian party jump over 3 million votes from 2012 to 2016, plus Evan McMullin pulled over 700K. It's reasonable for almost all (say 90%) of those to return home. That makes it only a 6% increase.

Don't worry. It's not like you have been calling Trump supporters names, is it?
 
2016 was hard. In addition to facing a better funded, more capable opponent, Trump was the outsider with unknown ability. To some degree that worked for him, but the Libertarian party had a 3 million vote jump from 2012 and Evan McMullin sucked off another 700,000 votes. This year, Trump is well established as capable, has a funding and enthusiasm advantage and is running as incumbent.

More concretely, Trump has all the votes he needs in the 43% support he routinely draw in polls. Given the same turnout ratios as 2016, we will get very close to 140 million total votes. If 75% of Trump supporters vote, then he gets 71 million votes, enough for a clear majority. This sort of analysis explains why Democrats are not acting confident, even with support of the polls. Indeed, they are acting frightened.

Prediction Trump 350 - Biden 188.

We'll see come November. I took the 2016 election a bit differently, especially the independent vote. Gallup showed that 54% of all independents disliked both major party candidates.

One in Four Americans Dislike Both Presidential Candidates

Which lead to 12% of independents voting third party, some 9 million voters. It's true Trump won the independent vote in 2016 46-42 with the fore mentioned 12% voting third party against both Trump and Clinton. I was one of those 9 million who was so disgusted with both major party candidates, I wanted my vote officially registered as voting against both. So Trump lost the independent vote if you add them up, the 42% who voted for Clinton and the 12% who voted against both, that's 54%.

Gallup hasn't been so kind this year as to give us the amount of folks who dislike both major party candidates. Even so, Biden isn't as disliked by independents as Hillary was. I expect him to pick up at leave half of those 12% who disliked both candidates and voted against both via the third party ballot.

I think this is important as the Republican Party is still the smaller of the two major parties. They, Trump must win the independent vote or lose the election. The Democrats just have to keep it close, not win them. Trump won the independent vote in Pennsylvania by a 48-41 margin, in Michigan by a 52-35 margin and in Wisconsin by a 50-40 margin.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/wisconsin/president

I don't think he can pull that off a second time. Give it 7 plus weeks and we'll know one way or the other.
 
Bachelors in Mathematics.


I highlighted the key word.

Democrats whipped up the base with the promise of impeachment if they won the House. That enthusiasm gap is reversed this year.


I won awards in HS Mathematics competitions--1st in state in Geometry and Trig.

It's not hard. The expected pool is 220 million eligible voters and 140 million expected votes. 43% of 220 million is 94.6 million votes. 75% of that is 71.0 million votes, more than 50%. This is without any other votes, ie undecided voters, Democrats flipping or shy Republicans. For a benchmark, Hillary had 65.8 million votes, equivalent to 67.1 with 2020 population.

Do you understand why Democrats are acting scared. their internal polling is telling them the same thing.

A math person doesn't assume that all 230 million eligible voters will turn out.
 
Ohio should go to Biden after its former nine-term 12th District Representative and two-term Governor sent a very strong message against Trump for the DNC.

Ohio is close and could go either way.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Ohio: Trump vs. Biden

I don't think endorsement mean much if anything at all. I remember all the talk about the Never Trumpers back in 2016 and they didn't amount to a hill of beans. Kasich coming out for Biden is one vote. He may persuade a few other republicans to join him, but no mass exodus from Trump.
 
Not hardly. In a midterm, a big turnout of the core can swamp everything. See 2014. My opinion is that the Democrats turned out almost all the Trump haters. If they didn't vote in 2018, they likely are not on board now. Given the disaster of the impeachment, some of those who did vote may no longer be on board.
Democrats didn't vote in 2010 and 2014.
R's barely voted in 2014, but it was enough to flip 9 Senate seats.
Why do you assume all 94 million people who didn't vote in 2016 will vote this time?
 
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