Can Trump win?

[Helix]

With what I see from the Great White North, he has been sliding in EV for the past month or 2.
He had a slim path, Rust Belt and Florida and or Pennsylvania. Not sure if that slim path included Ohio.
As you can see from this link he is wither behind on almost even in many of the above mentioned States
I bolded and gave these to Trump.- he still loses
HRC V DT

Illinois 51 to 34
Indiana 41 to 48
Michigan 41 to 35
Ohio 43 to 42
Pennsylvania 47 to 41
Florida 43 to 42

what worries me is that Clinton is our last failsafe against a Trump presidency. that's not very reassuring, considering the stakes. he should have never gotten this close.

 

[Fearandloathing]

Each of the polls you cite oversimple Democrats by 10 to 15%. Social media has Trump destroying Hillary. Twice the likes on FB, 4 times the views on youtube,,,etc.

If you have contrary stats, post them. You saying so doesn't make it so.

If you want to bet on social media, be my guest, but first take a guess how many accounts Trump has so he can vote for himself.

 

[JANFU]

Each of the polls you cite oversimple Democrats by 10 to 15%. Social media has Trump destroying Hillary. Twice the likes on FB, 4 times the views on youtube,,,etc.

Social media? It is the in depth polling that will tell the story of how the Voter looks at each

 

[Fearandloathing]

I am working on that for October- detailed, links and battleground States

check out "This is That" on CBC radio Saturdays. This past week they interviewed the "new deputy minister of Trump fleeing Americans department", whose job will be to make a smooth transition to the Canadian way of life. The spoof was about how Trudeau cried when he was a baby when his dad told him about American draft dodgers, so they are creating a new department to avoid the criticisms we had in the 60's and 70's.

They are working on John Cleese as minister and reprise the immigrant skit in Monty Python.

 

[Redress]

Can Trump win?
Yes - Why
No - Why
Other - pls explain?
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

RealClearPolitics - 2016 Election 2016 Presidential Polls

2016 Presidential Election Polls: Clinton vs. Trump

Consensus Pundit Electoral Map

Of course he can win. I do not even think you can get a real good idea of the probability until a couple weeks after the Olympics. RCP polls list has a ton of undecided voters, and a huge spread of results(in heads up Clinton v Trump, the range is Clinton +1 to Clinton +15). I think Trump is certainly an underdog, but underdogs do win from time to time.

 

[JANFU]

what worries me is that Clinton is our last failsafe against a Trump presidency. that's not very reassuring, considering the stakes. he should have never gotten this close.

I have stated this repeatedly, each one sucks. Now who will create the least damage to the US and including Foreign Affairs.
Many countries look to and need leadership from the US
US paying all nATO- Military bills, no.
EU should be increasing their defense budgets and assisting with equipment for front line states that are in the South China Sea.
If that entailed a new Org, mostly ASEAN Countries and NATO, then it should be given a good look.

 

[TheGoverness]

Social media? It is the in depth polling that will tell the story of how the Voter looks at each

Exactly. Donald's Twitter Account means absolutely nothing in the long run.

 

[JANFU]

Of course he can win. I do not even think you can get a real good idea of the probability until a couple weeks after the Olympics. RCP polls list has a ton of undecided voters, and a huge spread of results(in heads up Clinton v Trump, the range is Clinton +1 to Clinton +15). I think Trump is certainly an underdog, but underdogs do win from time to time.

True and when you look at Red V blue States for the EV's needed, Trumps included the RB Sates and either Pen or Florida. But of the last 2, 1 was critical to a win. His path to 270 is slim.
HRC is on the move in the battleground states, and not to many appearances in Blue States.

 

[Redress]

All Trump has to do is bring up a bunch of Hillary's baggage. If he does that on a consistent basis, he might actually do quite well in the debates.

I do not know if that will work so well. Clinton's baggage is known. Well known. It is not like he is going to be surprising any one with it. And with that baggage, Clinton is still ahead, and still has a much easier path to 270. Trump's biggest problem is with people like me, who think both of them are kinda ****ty people, so is judging on things other than that. If you kinda go with Trump's ****tyness cancelling out Clinton's ****tyness, you are left with looking at issues and ideology. Trump has made little effort to run in that area.

 

[JANFU]

Exactly. Donald's Twitter Account means absolutely nothing in the long run.

No it is very useful for when he goes wacko.

 

[Skeptic Bob]

Each of the polls you cite oversimple Democrats by 10 to 15%. Social media has Trump destroying Hillary. Twice the likes on FB, 4 times the views on youtube,,,etc.

Which has nothing to do with how likely registered voters will vote.

 

[Redress]

True and when you look at Red V blue States for the EV's needed, Trumps included the RB Sates and either Pen or Florida. But of the last 2, 1 was critical to a win. His path to 270 is slim.
HRC is on the move in the battleground states, and not to many appearances in Blue States.

Trump's paths to 270 are narrow, and pretty much require him to pick up the vast majority of undecided voters. But world events do have a habit of springing up, some new claim against Clinton might cost her support, Trump voters might just be more motivated to get out and vote. I would not bet on this election at this time for just about any odds.

 

[TheGoverness]

I do not know if that will work so well. Clinton's baggage is known. Well known. It is not like he is going to be surprising any one with it. And with that baggage, Clinton is still ahead, and still has a much easier path to 270. Trump's biggest problem is with people like me, who think both of them are kinda ****ty people, so is judging on things other than that. If you kinda go with Trump's ****tyness cancelling out Clinton's ****tyness, you are left with looking at issues and ideology. Trump has made little effort to run in that area.

Well that's true. Trump hasn't really gone that much in depth on much of anything policy wise. He's kind of "I'm gonna do this and this", but nothing really of any significant substance.

That's where he'll definitely be struggling the most in the debates for sure, because there's no doubt that Hillary's going to bring that up.

 

[JANFU]

Trump's paths to 270 are narrow, and pretty much require him to pick up the vast majority of undecided voters. But world events do have a habit of springing up, some new claim against Clinton might cost her support, Trump voters might just be more motivated to get out and vote. I would not bet on this election at this time for just about any odds.

Agreed, but it is going to be one hell of a ride.

 

[TheGoverness]

Agreed, but it is going to be one hell of a ride.

It's been one hell of a ride. This election season is straight-up crazy.

 

[Redress]

Well that's true. Trump hasn't really gone that much in depth on much of anything policy wise. He's kind of "I'm gonna do this and this", but nothing really of any significant substance.

That's where he'll definitely be struggling the most in the debates for sure, because there's no doubt that Hillary's going to bring that up.

It is what I would do if I was her for the debates. No major attacks, except those based on things he has proposed, and make it look like a formal debate. Stick to the topic of issues, go in depth. Sound presidential.

Now, I would definitely plan some new, hard attacks for the week before the debate. Try and get him simmering angry and wanting to rumble, then talk calmly about the issues.

 

[JANFU]

It is what I would do if I was her for the debates. No major attacks, except those based on things he has proposed, and make it look like a formal debate. Stick to the topic of issues, go in depth. Sound presidential.

Now, I would definitely plan some new, hard attacks for the week before the debate. Try and get him simmering angry and wanting to rumble, then talk calmly about the issues.

2 or 3 weeks before the debate, the attacks adds, using his own words will be non stop.

 

[JANFU]

For Americans concerned about National Security. well check this out
50 GOP national security experts oppose Trump - CNNPolitics.com

Washington (CNN)Fifty prominent Republican foreign policy and national security experts -- many veterans of George W. Bush's administration -- have signed a letter denouncing Donald Trump's presidential candidacy and pledging not to vote for him.
The letter, first reported by The New York Times Monday, warns: "We are convinced that in the Oval Office, he would be the most reckless President in American history."

Its signatories include former CIA and National Security Agency Director Michael Hayden, former Director of National Intelligence and Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte and Eric Edelman, who was Vice President Dick Cheney's national security adviser and has worked closely with Michele Flournoy -- a candidate for secretary of defense in a prospective Clinton administration -- to forge a centrist group of defense experts on key military issues.
It also includes two Homeland Security secretaries under Bush, Tom Ridge and Michael Chertoff, and Robert Zoellick, a former World Bank president, U.S. trade representative and deputy secretary of state.
Trump's campaign responded with a statement from Trump denouncing the signatories as people who deserve the "blame for making the world such a dangerous place."

 

[Dragonfly]

Yes he can win. Why?

He's running against H. Clinton.

 

[natsb]

He will win. There is no if.

The Clintonistas keep rolling out nothing burger after nothing burger with the same exact hyperbole: "This one will sink his campaign."

Just like the boy who cried wolf, it has gotten old.

They will soon, if not already, find themselves in a position where anything they say will be ignored.

Just like in the story, when a real wolf does show up, the cries will be unheard.

 

[Risky Thicket]

Both candidates have deep character flaws. Against a quality opponent neither candidate would stand a chance. Two of the worst candidates ever pitted against each other makes the race a toss up. Trump could be victorious but overall voter apathy and willful ignorance will win no matter who is elected.

 

[Chomsky]

I don't know how he's going to manage 90 second answers when he cant deflect to anyone else on the stage.

:lamo

 

[Perotista]

Can Trump win?
Yes - Why
No - Why
Other - pls explain?
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

RealClearPolitics - 2016 Election 2016 Presidential Polls

2016 Presidential Election Polls: Clinton vs. Trump

Consensus Pundit Electoral Map

Trump could still win, but the odds are hugely against it. The last presidential candidate seven points down in the polls on the first week of August to come back and win was G.H.W. Bush or Bush the elder back in 1988. It hasn't been done since. Truman accomplish the feat back in 1948, the only other time it had been done.

 

[Anagram]

Of course Trump can win. Any number of things can happen that can completely shift the race. It seems equally clear that Clinton is winning right now and his a moderate favorite for November though.

 

[SDET]

Trump can't help himself. He won't be able to stop himself from walking into Clinton's traps. I can't see how T-Rump could possibly win.