Around 350,000 Americans will die from COVID in 12 months. Is that winning?

[pamak]

Bullshit. Yesterday you criticised the President because you claimed his travel ban was overbroad for including all of China. Today you praise New Zealand because they shut down 100% of travel to their island. The only thing consistant in your "analysis" is your hatred of the administration. You have zero credibility. We're done. I'm tired of your Trump hating nonsense.

I criticized him for treating the virus as an "illegal imigrant" who could be contained in the border and for his failure to prepare the country for a real fight that would require sacrifices and measures within the US

From

Around 350,000 Americans will die from COVID in 12 months. Is that winning?

that has to be the saddest commentary about this entire era. 800-1,000 American deaths in a day is getting BETTER. But it's not 800-1000 deaths a day in the US. With a little luck for the Dem party, it could reach that again and possibly more. You'll have to check out worldometers. I think...

debatepolitics.com

Nope!

I am saying that NZ took effective measures to control the pandemic after the virus was detected there.
And the virus in both places came from outside.
Alabama does not control the US borders. Heck, it cannot even control its border since interstate travel is still controlled by feds ( recall air travel and FAA). The Feds controlled the US borders and they did close them. But they also downplayed the CV threat because they thought that the virus was just an illegal immigrant who could be controlled by a border wall. So, they failed to prepare the US population a to deal with the threat and now we see the US death rate above those of most developed nations of different sizes and geographic characteristics. And of course, red governors bought often the federal ratonale and were complicit in undermining the response within their state. This also undermined other states since domestic travelers from states wih loose or no measures could travel to states which chose to adopt more strict measures.

If Trump had managed to actually have a decent domestic plan for the pandemic, his overreaction with the general Chinese travel ban would not even be on the radar. His choice attracts attention now because he falsely tries to claim that this was the best thing a president could do to handle the pandemic effects. And international experience shows that this claim is nuts!

 

[Lord of Planar]

Today the report and this is early, 1030 new cases with 6 deaths Cases is not equal to deaths I did not report on the future

Overall from the start we have had 55153 cases and only 541 deaths As you can tell of all cases we have had 0.98 percent deaths.

Inder a tenth of a percent in other words.

idaho coronavirus - Google Search

www.google.com

And the lion's share of those deaths are people who are already old and ready ti die from almost any complication.

 

[pamak]

And the lion's share of those deaths are people who are already old and ready ti die from almost any complication.

Wrong!

Did not we go again through this nonsense claim?

Apparently, the tactic here when conservatives cannot refute counterpoints is to wait for a while and crawl in another thread repeating the same claims

Again

Final jobs report before Election Day shows US employers added 661,000 workers in September

The economy IS the only issue along with National security that the President impacts, all social programs come from the states and local communities. Pro growth economic policies boost state and local revenue and pro military protects even radicals on the left to allow them to attack the...

debatepolitics.com

According to their analysis , men are losing, on average, 13 years of their lives, and women, 11 years.

Even after accounting for high blood pressure, diabetes and other common chronic conditions found in people dying of the pandemic virus, death from COVID-19 resulted in more than a decade of life lost per person, the analysis shows, similar to the years of life lost from heart disease...

Estimated lost years of life, or YLLs, were more than a decade for deaths from COVID-19, and taking into account the underlying diseases did not change it dramatically – which means that most people “Have lost much more than the” 1-2 “years suggested by some commentators,” the researchers wrote

 

[year2late]

Our doctors here say we have different metrics.


TWIN FALLS, Idaho (KMVT/KSVT) - As the coronavirus continues to take its hold on parts of the country, one concern in several states is running out of intensive care unit hospital beds and ventilators — something Idaho has been able to avoid.

Dr. Joshua Kern with St. Luke’s says one contributing factors for this is the population density. In the Magic Valley and Wood River Valley people are able to spread out more than in densely populated cities like Miami, Houston and Phoenix, where they are seeing some of the most hospitalizations in the country. He also attributes it to the fact more people are wearing masks and following safety procedures put in place. While the state’s coronavirus website shows the state has a good number of ICU beds and ventilators that’s not the main concern if there happens to be a spike in hospitalizations.

“Bed capacity and vent capacity really, for the most part is truly not the limiting factor, it’s staffing; it’s human capital; it’s our own employees,” Kern said, who is the vice president of medical affairs for St. Luke’s Magic Valley, Jerome and Wood River. “ICU nurses are really the rate limiting set in being able to care for really sick COVID patients. We really only have a limited number of highly trained ICU nurses in the state.”

Idaho hospitals focus on staff, not ventilators and beds during COVID-19

Idaho has been able to avoid running low on ICU beds and ventilators, but hospitals say they need to focus on staff.

www.kmvt.com

He said Idaho at this time has more ventilators than they have qualified nurses to run them. So while the state’s website does show the Gem State is not running low on beds and equipment, the issue will always be to ensure the hospitals are staffed and healthcare workers are able to stay healthy.

Idaho hospitals focus on staff, not ventilators and beds during COVID-19

Idaho has been able to avoid running low on ICU beds and ventilators, but hospitals say they need to focus on staff.

www.kmvt.com

Your article was from over 2 months ago. Now Idaho is having big issues,

With 1 in 4 patients sick with COVID-19, an Idaho hospital tries to weather the storm

COVID-19 patients are inundating a hospital in Twin Falls, Idaho, that serves more than 100,000 people. Hospital resources are strained; staffers are tired. They wonder how much longer they can keep up.

www.seattletimes.com

And we are headed towards flu season

 

[Thazgor]

Majority will die in dems state, but you blame republicans!

 

[ElChupacabra]

Majority will die in dems state, but you blame republicans!

That hasn't happened since the first peak. Ever since then, the deaths have been coming in from other parts of the country which have seen surges.

 

[pamak]

Majority will die in dems state, but you blame republicans!

Because death rates during the epidemic are linked to bigger population densities (weighted) and bigger urban centers and both are mostly found in blue states. And the blue states with the biggest casualties were the ones which had the biggest and most densely populated cities

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.01167.pdf

Using both our measure of population- weighted density and the Hofstede score we can significantly explain half the variation in the current size of epidemics across Europe and North America.

 

[PoS]

Yea thats what liberals believe, good one. ha

So tell us then, how many would have died if Hillary was POTUS?

 

[CaughtInThe]

That hasn't happened since the first peak. Ever since then, the deaths have been coming in from other parts of the country which have seen surges.

View attachment 67300741

They don't care.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

I think I am. The infection rate is going up and that's not being influenced by the number of tests being conducted. The daily death rate in the US is going down over a time scale that I'v chosen to consider to be relevant. However, the decline in the death rate is beginning to look like it's being reversed.
I'm relying on worldometers for my information.

I agree that there appears to be an increase in the daily death rate in the US

​

When you smooth that out using the seven day average it looks like this

​

And when you smooth that out even more by using the 10 day average of the 7 day averages it looks like this

​

I'm not interested in following you on that level of debate. The death rate most certainly does have something to do with defining a pandemic, but is not limited to just that statistic.

I do admit that I tend to be picky about using the actual technical definition with respect to technical terms.

But fwiw, the Nazi death camps did not kill 15 million people. First of all you'll need to learn what camps were death camps and which weren't. Then when you've narrowed it down to 1 or possibly 2 camps, you can begin by reading up on real figures for one or both.

Are you one of those who denies that the Nazis killed around 15,000,000 people in their various death camps (permanent and temporary) and want to limit the number to those one or two camps that were specifically designated as "death camps" (which, of course, none were)?

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

Asked specifically whether he’d push to shutter economic activity if scientists said it was necessary, Biden replied: “I would shut it down.”

Biden says he'd shut down economy if scientists recommended

ATLANTA (AP) — Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden said he would follow public health advisers’ advice if they called for a national shutdown should he take office and the coronavirus had not abated...

apnews.com

Did you know that

I'd shut down the economy if scientists recommended it​

and

I'd shut down the economy​

do NOT mean the same thing?

Did you know that deliberately excising the part of a statement which puts what is left into perspective is "dishonest quotation"?

 

[Rawley]

Did you know that

I'd shut down the economy if scientists recommended it​

and

I'd shut down the economy​

do NOT mean the same thing?

Did you know that deliberately excising the part of a statement which puts what is left into perspective is "dishonest quotation"?

?? I didn't excise any part of the reporters' question. Is there a particular reason you skipped over the "scientists" part in the question?

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

Remember back when this all started and Jared poo pooed having a national COVID plan because **** it... it was hitting blue states hardest?

Let's see how's that working out for him now in the travel risk map out today...

View attachment 67300685

Even little old Washington D.C. colored green.

Interesting graphic - where'd you get it? It doesn't appear to quite line up with the data that I have because if California is "Green" then there should be a total of 20 "Green" states (13 "Blue States" and 7 "Red States").

​

If course if you look at deaths, then the picture is slightly different

​

and there would be 24 "Green" states (10 "Blue States" and 14 "Red States") so I'd sort of like to know where the graphic came from and what criteria they used in drawing it.

 

[year2late]

So tell us then, how many would have died if Hillary was POTUS?

Nobody can really know, but she sure as hell would have kept the Pandemic Playbook and listened to the epidemiologists and public health officials.
We needed to keep this controlled EARLY on. That way tracking and tracing would be effective. We needed nation wide testing with results that were quick. What we got was a splintered effort to access testing supplies...leading to long wait lines for the test and even longer wait times until results came in. That is not how you contain a pandemic. The Pandemic Playbook showed us the way out of this. It needed nationwide coordinated response. We got bidding wars for supplies. We got humiliation to those wearing masks.
I believe Hillary would have gone by the Pandemic Playbook and listened to epidemiologists.

Don't get me wrong. Trump had some pandemic successes. Warp Speed comes to mind. But he undermines his own plan by undermining the confidence of the public by making promises he cannot keep. We have enough anti-vaxers -we don't need a politician out there makings stupid ass promises he cannot keep - like a snake oil salesman.

 

[poweRob]

Interesting graphic - where'd you get it? It doesn't appear to quite line up with the data that I have because if California is "Green" then there should be a total of 20 "Green" states (13 "Blue States" and 7 "Red States").

View attachment 67300800
​

If course if you look at deaths, then the picture is slightly different

View attachment 67300802​

and there would be 24 "Green" states (10 "Blue States" and 14 "Red States") so I'd sort of like to know where the graphic came from and what criteria they used in drawing it.

New Mexico travel update map. NM Department of Health.

Social Distancing & Travel Restrictions | NMDOH - Coronavirus Updates

cv.nmhealth.org

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

Alabama has 2,805 deaths

Alabama COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Alabama COVID-19 Coronavirus update by county with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, current active cases, recoveries, historical data, trends, projections, and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

New Zealand has 25 deaths

New Zealand COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

New Zealand Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

By the way, population density is the important factor and not population size

Alabama has a population density of 94.4 / sq.mi.

New Zealand has a population density of 46 / sq.mi.

If "population density is the important factor and not population size" then, since Alabama has a population density that is 2.052 times that of New Zealand that would mean that Alabama should have 2.052 times New Zealand's 25.

2.025 x 25 = 50.625

5.0625 is 1.805% of 2,805.

A correlation of 1.805% is generally considered "statistical noise".

In short, your "population density is the important factor and not population size" must be considered to be

​

New Zealand - Cases / Million = 383

Alabama - Cases / Million = 35,828.55

383 x 2.052 = 785.916

785.916 is 2.194% of 35,828.55

This also qualifies as "statistical noise"​

New Zealand - Deaths / Million = 5

Alabama - Deaths / Million = 576.77

5 x 2.052 = 10.26

10.26 is 1.779% of 576.77

This also qualifies as "statistical noise"​

PS - Did you know that 78% of New Zealand qualifies as "uninhabited"? That would make the population density for the "inhabited" part approximately 209.09 / sq.mi. I have no data on what percentage of Alabama is "uninhabited" but the US average is 47% so if Alabama is "typical" then its population density would work out to approximately 178.11 so the conversion factor should actually have been 1.174 rather than 2.052 and your "population density is the important factor and not population size" would have broken the needle of the BE Meter.

PPS - I do realize how difficult it is to face up to higher mathematics (like "Addition", "Subtraction", "Multiplication", and "Division") and to grapple with obscure and arcane mathematical concepts (such as "Percentage") despite the fact that one is a High School Graduate ESPECIALLY when one has been told to believe total crap that makes one feel good, so I won't be in the least bit offended if you don't acknowledge this post.

 

[Hari Seldon]

So tell us then, how many would have died if Hillary was POTUS?

Certainly less than under the malignant narcissist scumbag POS. I doubt she would have contradicted her own administration's recommendations or actively contradicted the states ability to fight the virus. Promoting hydroxychloquine or injecting bleach probably wouldn't be part of her choices either. Simply wearing a mask would have been encouraged. The sleezeball has been a complete failure.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

Not at all. Your "argument" consists of how wonderful these other countries are and how horrible the US is.

Did you know that there is a difference between

"Country X" is wonderful.​

and

"Country X" is doing a better job of dealing with "Condition Y" than "Country Z" is.​

Did you know that

As someone who lives in "Country Z" I would like to see it doing at least as well in dealing with "Condition Y" than "Country X" is.​

and

"Country Z" sucks.​

do NOT mean the same thing?

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

How in God's name can you seriously compare the ability of an island of 4 million people with one government to combat a virus to the United states with 340 million people and 50+ governments?

Since

1. Some countries have leadership at the national level, and some don't.
   
   
2. Some countries have leaders who pay attention to the facts, and some don't.
   
   
3. Some countries have leaders who do not lie to their people, and some don't.
   
   
4. Some countries have a population that wants the best outcome for the whole population, and some don't.
   
   
5. Some countries have a population that doesn't whine about the least little bit of personal inconvenience when that inconvenience is necessary to save lives, and some don't.
   
   
   and
   
   
6. Some countries have a population that adopts common sense measures to help reduce the spread of disease, and some don't.

I'd say that there are grounds for comparison.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

?? I didn't excise any part of the reporters' question. Is there a particular reason you skipped over the "scientists" part in the question?

You only excised a part of Mr. Biden's answer.

 

[pamak]

Alabama has a population density of 94.4 / sq.mi.

New Zealand has a population density of 46 / sq.mi.

If "population density is the important factor and not population size" then, since Alabama has a population density that is 2.052 times that of New Zealand that would mean that Alabama should have 2.052 times New Zealand's 25.

2.025 x 25 = 50.625

5.0625 is 1.805% of 2,805.

A correlation of 1.805% is generally considered "statistical noise".

In short, your "population density is the important factor and not population size" must be considered to be

View attachment 67300807​

New Zealand - Cases / Million = 383

Alabama - Cases / Million = 35,828.55

383 x 2.052 = 785.916

785.916 is 2.194% of 35,828.55

​

This also qualifies as "statistical noise"​

New Zealand - Deaths / Million = 5

Alabama - Deaths / Million = 576.77

5 x 2.052 = 10.26

10.26 is 1.779% of 576.77

​

This also qualifies as "statistical noise"​

PS - Did you know that 78% of New Zealand qualifies as "uninhabited"? That would make the population density for the "inhabited" part approximately 209.09 / sq.mi. I have no data on what percentage of Alabama is "uninhabited" but the US average is 47% so if Alabama is "typical" then its population density would work out to approximately 178.11 so the conversion factor should actually have been 1.174 rather than 2.052 and your "population density is the important factor and not population size" would have broken the needle of the BE Meter.

PPS - I do realize how difficult it is to face up to higher mathematics (like "Addition", "Subtraction", "Multiplication", and "Division") and to grapple with obscure and arcane mathematical concepts (such as "Percentage") despite the fact that one is a High School Graduate ESPECIALLY when one has been told to believe total crap that makes one feel good, so I won't be in the least bit offended if you don't acknowledge this post.

What you say would have been true if population density was the ONLY important factor in determining the outcome of a pandemic. Obviously this is not the case and things like mitigation strategies, initial virus penetration, demographics, etc, affect the outcome.

The correlation in statistics is not calculated based on two data points.

The paper I gave you bases calculation after taking in consideration numerous different countries as it happens with statistics

Your example is just naive. It is like finding two people; one smoker and one non-smoker with the former living longer the the latter to argue about "statistical noise" and reject the link between the condition of smoking and life expectancy.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

New Mexico travel update map. NM Department of Health.

Social Distancing & Travel Restrictions | NMDOH - Coronavirus Updates

cv.nmhealth.org

Thank you. It appears that New Mexico is adopting some pretty stiff standards. Of course, setting standards at more than the absolute minimum does mean that the New Mexico state government is actually more likely to be protecting the people of New Mexico from imported COVID-19 than a state government that sets the standards as low as it thinks that it can get away with.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

What you say would have been true if population density was the ONLY important factor in determining the outcome of a pandemic. Obviously this is not the case and things like mitigation strategies, initial virus penetration, demographics, etc, affect the outcome.

The correlation in statistics is not calculated based on two data points.

The paper I gave you bases calculation after taking in consideration numerous different countries as it happens with statistics

Your example is just naive. It is like finding two people; one smoker and one non-smoker with the former living longer the the latter to argue about "statistical noise" and reject the link between the condition of smoking and life expectancy.

What "paper"?

 

[Rawley]

You only excised a part of Mr. Biden's answer.

I didn't excise shit, I cut and pasted directly from their story. Which explicitly referenced the scientists You got a bitch in your whiny defense of Biden, bring it up with the AP.

Biden says he'd shut down economy if scientists recommended

ATLANTA (AP) — Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden said he would follow public health advisers’ advice if they called for a national shutdown should he take office and the coronavirus had not abated...

apnews.com

 

[Phys251]

LOL...

Yes, it kills. So does the flu. So does the common cold. But only to people who are ready to die from one thing or another. It does not kill healthy people.