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Your work is thorough. It's much appreciated.I’m not looking at abortion polls. What I’m concentrating on is the polls on who folks plan on voting for in November. I listed the pre-overturning numbers, 23 June for all to compare with the post-overturning numbers, today, 2 July. I’m election focused, I don’t care what people think of the ruling, I’m paying strict attention to who they plan on voting for. One can be pro-choice, oppose the ruling, but if one still votes GOP in November, I’d classify that as soft support or should I say soft opposition to the ruling. An example of soft opposition is someone who says, “I’d rather abortion be legal, but it doesn’t make my top 5 list of issues that I use to decide who to vote for in the midterms.” Until the numbers start to shift toward the democrats, I’d say a lot of those you point out are soft opposers. Here’s the numbers once again. You can have 90% of all Americans opposing the SCOTUS ruling overturning ROE. But if they’re not voting Democratic in November, that's soft opposition. If they’re not changing who they plan on voting for, the overturning of ROE isn’t all that important to them. The hard-core opposition comes from Democrats who’ll be voting democratic. Hard core pro-choicers are in my opinion already Democratic voters.
23 June 2022 Generic congressional ballot, RCP averages 44.3-41.5, Republican, 538 averages 44.8-42.5 Republican
2 July 2022 Generic congressional ballot, RCP averages 45.3-43.3, Republican, 538 averages 44.8-42.8 Republican
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/
The President’s overall job performance numbers.
23 June 2022 Biden’s overall job performance, 39.6% approve, 55.8% disapprove
2 July 2022 Biden’s overall job performance, 38.4% approve, 56.9% disapprove
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president-biden-job-approval-7320.html
Most important to the midterms is the number of competitive, switchable, at risk house seats and the senate’s pure tossup states beginning 23 June 2022 to see the effect of the overturning of ROE.
23 June – House 40 Democratic seats, 13 Republican seats fell into the at-risk category. A probable gain of 18-20 seats for the Republicans. Senate – 4 pure tossups, 3 democratic held seats, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, 1 Republican held seats, Wisconsin. 2 lean Democratic seats, Democratic held New Hampshire and Republican held Pennsylvania, 1 lean Republican seat, Republican held North Carolina. Probable net gain of 1 seat for the Democrats, Pennsylvania.
2 July – House 40 Democratic seats, 14 Republican seats fell into the at-risk category. A probable gain of 18-20 seats for the Republicans. Senate – 4 pure tossups, 3 democratic held seats, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, 1 Republican held seats, Wisconsin. 2 lean Democratic seats, Democratic held New Hampshire and Republican held Pennsylvania, 1 lean Republican seat, Republican held North Carolina. Probable net gain of 1 seat for the Democrats, Pennsylvania.
The AP poll doesn't tell us anything specific on votes, but people do appear energized by the decision, on both sides. May be a sign of high turnout.