30 Abortions Threads.....Nothing about inflation

[Michael Cole]

I’m not looking at abortion polls. What I’m concentrating on is the polls on who folks plan on voting for in November. I listed the pre-overturning numbers, 23 June for all to compare with the post-overturning numbers, today, 2 July. I’m election focused, I don’t care what people think of the ruling, I’m paying strict attention to who they plan on voting for. One can be pro-choice, oppose the ruling, but if one still votes GOP in November, I’d classify that as soft support or should I say soft opposition to the ruling. An example of soft opposition is someone who says, “I’d rather abortion be legal, but it doesn’t make my top 5 list of issues that I use to decide who to vote for in the midterms.” Until the numbers start to shift toward the democrats, I’d say a lot of those you point out are soft opposers. Here’s the numbers once again. You can have 90% of all Americans opposing the SCOTUS ruling overturning ROE. But if they’re not voting Democratic in November, that's soft opposition. If they’re not changing who they plan on voting for, the overturning of ROE isn’t all that important to them. The hard-core opposition comes from Democrats who’ll be voting democratic. Hard core pro-choicers are in my opinion already Democratic voters.

23 June 2022 Generic congressional ballot, RCP averages 44.3-41.5, Republican, 538 averages 44.8-42.5 Republican

2 July 2022 Generic congressional ballot, RCP averages 45.3-43.3, Republican, 538 averages 44.8-42.8 Republican

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/

The President’s overall job performance numbers.

23 June 2022 Biden’s overall job performance, 39.6% approve, 55.8% disapprove

2 July 2022 Biden’s overall job performance, 38.4% approve, 56.9% disapprove

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president-biden-job-approval-7320.html

Most important to the midterms is the number of competitive, switchable, at risk house seats and the senate’s pure tossup states beginning 23 June 2022 to see the effect of the overturning of ROE.

23 June – House 40 Democratic seats, 13 Republican seats fell into the at-risk category. A probable gain of 18-20 seats for the Republicans. Senate – 4 pure tossups, 3 democratic held seats, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, 1 Republican held seats, Wisconsin. 2 lean Democratic seats, Democratic held New Hampshire and Republican held Pennsylvania, 1 lean Republican seat, Republican held North Carolina. Probable net gain of 1 seat for the Democrats, Pennsylvania.

2 July – House 40 Democratic seats, 14 Republican seats fell into the at-risk category. A probable gain of 18-20 seats for the Republicans. Senate – 4 pure tossups, 3 democratic held seats, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, 1 Republican held seats, Wisconsin. 2 lean Democratic seats, Democratic held New Hampshire and Republican held Pennsylvania, 1 lean Republican seat, Republican held North Carolina. Probable net gain of 1 seat for the Democrats, Pennsylvania.

Your work is thorough. It's much appreciated.

The AP poll doesn't tell us anything specific on votes, but people do appear energized by the decision, on both sides. May be a sign of high turnout.

 

[Perotista]

Your work is thorough. It's much appreciated.

The AP poll doesn't tell us anything specific on votes, but people do appear energized by the decision, on both sides. May be a sign of high turnout.

I suspect you’re right. If this is correct, to the question - 78. Enthusiasm About Voting in 2022 Compared to voting in previous Congressional election years, are you more or less enthusiastic about voting in this year’s election? Pre-overturning of ROE 32% of Democrats answered more enthusiastic, but post-overturning of ROE, that shot up to 40% being more enthusiastic. While the Republicans dropped from 47 to 46%

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/uhxw71f4tf/econTabReport.pdf

Yes, I agree, we will most likely have a higher than normal voter turnout for this midterm. I do expect the voter enthusiasm to increase for the Democrats in the coming weeks, but no more 8-point jumps. We also could have the charging, indictment of Trump to come which could reenergize the Republican voters, basically making them mad. Lots of unknowns here. One thing is for sure, this will not be a normal midterm election. Heck, nothing has been normal since Trump stepped on the scene. Historical wisdom, convention has been thrown out the window.

 

[cpwill]

I suspect you’re right. If this is correct, to the question - 78. Enthusiasm About Voting in 2022 Compared to voting in previous Congressional election years, are you more or less enthusiastic about voting in this year’s election? Pre-overturning of ROE 32% of Democrats answered more enthusiastic, but post-overturning of ROE, that shot up to 40% being more enthusiastic. While the Republicans dropped from 47 to 46%

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/uhxw71f4tf/econTabReport.pdf

Yes, I agree, we will most likely have a higher than normal voter turnout for this midterm. I do expect the voter enthusiasm to increase for the Democrats in the coming weeks, but no more 8-point jumps. We also could have the charging, indictment of Trump to come which could reenergize the Republican voters, basically making them mad. Lots of unknowns here. One thing is for sure, this will not be a normal midterm election. Heck, nothing has been normal since Trump stepped on the scene. Historical wisdom, convention has been thrown out the window.

Or, potentially, Trump decides to steal the limelight back from the Jan 6 hearing by declaring that he's running again.


yeerch.

 

[Perotista]

Or, potentially, Trump decides to steal the limelight back from the Jan 6 hearing by declaring that he's running again.


yeerch.

That I think would boost Democratic voter enthusiasm even more. That would basically put Trump on the ballot for the midterms. Independents don’t like Trump; they’ve been hesitant about voting for Trump backed candidates thus limiting the damage done to the Democrats when the Democrats have a president with a very low 39% approval rating. Here’s what I’m talking about.

This is a list of presidents whose approval rating was around 40% for a midterm election. President, year, approval percentage, house seats lost, senate seats lost. Historical average for 4 presidents excluding Biden since his midterm hasn’t happened yet. Approval average, 39.25% house seats lost 48.5, senate seats lost 6.

Biden 2022 38% ?????? projected loss of 18-20 house seats, gain of 1 senate seat as of 3 July

Trump 2018 40% lost 44 house seats, 3 senate seats

Obama 2010 42% lost 63 house seats, 6 senate seats

G.W. Bush 2006 33% lost 33 house seats, 6 senate seats

Bill Clinton 1994 42% lost 54 house seats, 9 senate seats

As I stated, conventional wisdom and historical standards don’t apply this year or any year since Trump’s arrival.

 

[Razoo]

Blame the oil industry for the wide spread inflation. After all consumer goods need fuel to travel and none of the transportation sources are fuel efficient.

The way to crush inflation = stop spending for awhile. The white collars will begin to reduce reduce reduce.

Corporate America should not be able to control shoppers for any reason. We shoppers are the power let's demonstrate by not spending for awhile. It's all about controlling corporate america and the big banks.

We can do it!!!!!!

 

[Individual]

That is the funny part of politics. You cannot declare yourself a solution or part of the problem

Except, most politicians present themselves as the candidate with a solution, or a better solution than the other candidates.
Until we begin to discuss issues in depth without political party biases we are not going to solve any issues except along party lines, leaving the same issues as the basis of future elections.

 

[366h34d]

Except, most politicians present themselves as the candidate with a solution, or a better solution than the other candidates.
Until we begin to discuss issues in depth without political party biases we are not going to solve any issues except along party lines, leaving the same issues as the basis of future elections.

What I mean is that a commoner cannot do that, only a person who holds the power can. I don't know, maybe you are part of the establishment

 

[HikerGuy83]

Blame the oil industry for the wide spread inflation. After all consumer goods need fuel to travel and none of the transportation sources are fuel efficient.

The way to crush inflation = stop spending for awhile. The white collars will begin to reduce reduce reduce.

Corporate America should not be able to control shoppers for any reason. We shoppers are the power let's demonstrate by not spending for awhile. It's all about controlling corporate america and the big banks.

We can do it!!!!!!

Please stop spending....so much time posting this kind of tripe.

Oil companies charge what people will pay. What part of that don't you understand ????

 

[Individual]

What I mean is that a commoner cannot do that, only a person who holds the power can. I don't know, maybe you are part of the establishment

A person who holds power, our elected representatives? Or the political party they belong to?

 

[Razoo]

Please stop spending....so much time posting this kind of tripe.

Oil companies charge what people will pay. What part of that don't you understand ????

Please stop spending for awhile makes dollars and sense. People are being FORCED to pay because 99% need jobs and some feel vacations are a must. Willing and able to pay = you are living in a cave.

I say go on staycations as in a vacation spent in one's home country rather than abroad and/or to avoid any extensive travel or one spent at home and involving day trips to local attractions. Look around for what one may have NOT done yet.

Keep spending at inflation rates sends the wrong message.

 

[Michael Cole]

Please stop spending for awhile makes dollars and sense. People are being FORCED to pay because 99% need jobs and some feel vacations are a must. Willing and able to pay = you are living in a cave.

I say go on staycations as in a vacation spent in one's home country rather than abroad and/or to avoid any extensive travel or one spent at home and involving day trips to local attractions. Look around for what one may have NOT done yet.

Keep spending at inflation rates sends the wrong message.

Too much doom and gloom.

I'm leaving for a three-day/two-night jaunt tomorrow. The room is only $80 a night. I get 42 mpg. And I bought 10 lbs. of drumsticks yesterday for 40 cents a pound (not for the trip. Just to show cheap food can be found.)

You can stay home. I enjoy life.

 

[HikerGuy83]

Please stop spending for awhile makes dollars and sense. People are being FORCED to pay because 99% need jobs and some feel vacations are a must. Willing and able to pay = you are living in a cave.

I say go on staycations as in a vacation spent in one's home country rather than abroad and/or to avoid any extensive travel or one spent at home and involving day trips to local attractions. Look around for what one may have NOT done yet.

Keep spending at inflation rates sends the wrong message.

Prices inflate to drive off demand.

Take a course.

 

[CaughtInThe]

Same tired drum you keep beating.

Keep it up.

You'll see soon enough that your wet dream isn't going to happen.

it appears that polling of women has shown a major shift.

 

[Michael Cole]

it appears that polling of women has shown a major shift.

There has been a shift toward (D) in all demographics.

 

[madman]

There has been a shift toward (D) in all demographics.

Indeed! This is good for the country.

 

[CaughtInThe]

There has been a shift toward (D) in all demographics.

yep

 

[MrWonka]

Why Is Inflation So High?

Investors got some good news on Tuesday after a popular measure of inflation came in lower than expected in November. The Labor Department reported that the consumer price index (CPI) rose 7.1% in November, down from a 7.7% gain in October and less than the 7.3% increase economists were expecting

www.forbes.com

Yes, it's still with us.

And will be a bigger issue, by far, than abortion as polling is already showing.

Man this OP didn't age very well.

 

[MrWonka]

Just pointing out that while more Americans are concerned about inflation than abortion, this forum is exact opposite.

Republicans just pulled their money out of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Arizona. Even Marco Rubio is behind in polling.
Gas prices are falling as we all knew they would, and if Kansas is any indication of how the country feels about abortion this election could lead to the destruction of the Republican party.

 

[Doppelgangirl]

Republicans just pulled their money out of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Arizona. Even Marco Rubio is behind in polling.
Gas prices are falling as we all knew they would, and if Kansas is any indication of how the country feels about abortion this election could lead to the destruction of the Republican party.

From your lips to Gods ears

 

[HikerGuy83]

That’s your problem, it’s a BS comparison.

Abortion vs inflation?

You are surprised people feel more strongly regarding forced pregnancy as opposed to an extra $0.50 for their McMeal?

Of course it’s more complicated than that, but why in the world would you compare the two?

It's not a comparison.

It's an observation.

Why is this country so lacking in education.

 

[HikerGuy83]

Republicans just pulled their money out of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Arizona. Even Marco Rubio is behind in polling.
Gas prices are falling as we all knew they would, and if Kansas is any indication of how the country feels about abortion this election could lead to the destruction of the Republican party.

We'll see you in November.

Anyone who cares about polls at this stage of the game might want to revisit history.

 

[HikerGuy83]

There has been a shift toward (D) in all demographics.

You bet.

Why Are Democrats Losing Latino Voters?

A conversation with political scientist Ruy Teixeira about how Hispanics’ disaffection with the cultural left spells big trouble for Democrats in 2022 and beyond.

www.bloomberg.com

The great realignment

Even small inroads with Hispanic voters could tip a number of Democratic-held swing seats to the GOP.

www.axios.com

Voters of color are backing the GOP at historic levels | CNN Politics

While Democrats and Republicans may be further apart on policy than any of us can remember, that breakdown is not occurring along racial and gender lines as much as you might think, Harry Enten writes.

www.cnn.com

More Black men abandon Democrats to vote Republican, poll shows

Black men are increasingly drifting from the Democratic to the Republican Party, according to an Election Day poll of voters.General support for the Democratic presidential candidate among Black men slipped during Tuesday’s vote — highlighting an apparent shift among a key political demographic...

www.ajc.com

Don't get out much......do you ?

 

[mrjurrs]

Please stop spending....so much time posting this kind of tripe.

Oil companies charge what people will pay. What part of that don't you understand ????

That's not entirely true. Yes the market sets the price, but energy is a rather inelastic commodity so they will continue to spend more. Similar, but not as dramatic as insulin.

 

[iguanaman]

Why Is Inflation So High?

Investors got some good news on Tuesday after a popular measure of inflation came in lower than expected in November. The Labor Department reported that the consumer price index (CPI) rose 7.1% in November, down from a 7.7% gain in October and less than the 7.3% increase economists were expecting

www.forbes.com

Yes, it's still with us.

And will be a bigger issue, by far, than abortion as polling is already showing.

The board has a bunch of abortion threads on the front page, but nothing on what people are really concerned about.

So here you go....

Dashing hopes inflation was starting to level off, the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in May grew by its highest level since 1981.

CPI rose 8.6% in the month, up from 8.3% in April, exceeding the 8.3% gain economists were expecting. On a month-over-month basis, CPI rose 1% compared with April, topping expectations for a 0.7% gain.

The May CPI data is only the latest indicator suggesting that inflation remains elevated and has not yet peaked in the U.S. The S&P 500 initially dropped by nearly 1% on Friday morning following the disappointing May inflation report.

********************

This could mean another interest rate hike and that would just about assure a recession.

​

Inflation pressures are easing. Gasoline prices are plunging, retailers are cutting prices and even food prices are dropping. The pent up demand that fueled the inflation has ended and consumers are spending much smarter now. The July employment numbers made it quite clear that there is no recession on the horizon and even if the FED raises rates again they will still be historically low.

Mortgage rates drop amid signs that inflation may have finally peaked​

Mortgage rates ticked lower last week, falling back toward the 5% mark following economic reports that indicated inflation might have finally peaked.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.13% in the week ending August 18, down from 5.22% the week before, according to Freddie Mac. Despite the latest drop, rates are still significantly higher than this time last year, when the 30-year was 2.86%.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/18/homes/mortgage-rates-august-18/index.html

 

[HikerGuy83]

​

Inflation pressures are easing. Gasoline prices are plunging, retailers are cutting prices and even food prices are dropping. The pent up demand that fueled the inflation has ended and consumers are spending much smarter now. The July employment numbers made it quite clear that there is no recession on the horizon and even if the FED raises rates again they will still be historically low.

Mortgage rates drop amid signs that inflation may have finally peaked​

Mortgage rates ticked lower last week, falling back toward the 5% mark following economic reports that indicated inflation might have finally peaked.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.13% in the week ending August 18, down from 5.22% the week before, according to Freddie Mac. Despite the latest drop, rates are still significantly higher than this time last year, when the 30-year was 2.86%.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/18/homes/mortgage-rates-august-18/index.html

Wow....5%.

My last two home loans were at 3%. And nut under the current idiot.