Why does anybody think Donald Trump will win?

[Patriotic Voter]

I pray to God you are correct my friend

I will pray for Joe Biden to win every swing state.

 

[Crovax]

He still has a path to victory. It's more narrow than 2016; his edges in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are gone, but he can still string together enough states to win the EC.

exactly, I was looking at it last night and here’s the states Trump needs to win

Arizona
Florida
Georgia
North Carolina
Ohio
Pennsylvania

do any of those seem outside the realm of possibility? Especially with Trump spending big in PA on Joes fracking flip flop. This election in the EC is going to be closer than people think

 

[ReubenSherr]

Look at these maps exactly one week before Election Day:

270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map

Create your own forecast for the 2024 presidential election

www.270towin.com

Using a calculator on my browser to add up electoral votes for red, blue, and swing states, I figured out the most Donald Trump could get if today was Election Day is 248. That is 22 EC votes short. That means he would have to steal two states from Joe Biden with no chance of winning New York or California even if he wins Texas and Florida. Realistically, no scenario will award the rattlesnake 270 EC votes.

???

Trump could easily win Wisconsin. Polls showed Clinton up 5 the day before Election Day in 2016, that's about what polling shows now, and the polling is limited.

He's closing in rapidly in Pennsylvania. And is now ahead in Florida and Ohio.

I don't know that he will win, but the map is still wide open.

 

[Artymoon]

See who is running against the rattlesnake. What happened four years ago is 100% irrelevant to his chances of defeating Joe Biden.

Certainly anyone can win at this point. But the confidence level of Democrats parallels 2016 race. I'll just continue to sit back, smile, vote and let the chips fall where they may.

 

[Schweddy]

Polls are not "accurate"... regardless which side one is on.

What's more important is that your sample population is truly random and that the responses they give are honest. Those are the things that should be called into question, not the sample size.

On top that is follow-though aligned with the honesty. Good intentions has failed many.

How many people say without action?

 

[Patriotic Voter]

Crovax: Why didn't you put Texas on that list? It is second to California with 38 EC votes and before this year was always reliably Republican.

 

[ReubenSherr]

There is absolutely no way Biden will win Texas.

 

[rickc]

Well if Trump wins it will be after the election in the courts.

He is challenging everything!

 

[Patriotic Voter]

Well if Trump wins it will be after the election in the courts.

He is challenging everything!

It is not happening. If Joe Biden wins both Florida and Texas, the rattlesnake has no chance.

 

[PoliSciXtina]

There is absolutely no way Biden will win Texas.

you sure about that?

 

[ajn678]

You guys put way too much faith in polls, there's a majority of people who simply don't answer polls.

Take a look at this link here, it's to a Reuters Poll, what it says doesn't matter....but how many responses it gets does.

Biden has solid lead in Wisconsin, narrower edge in Pennsylvania: Reuters/Ipsos poll

Democratic presidential challenger Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump by a solid margin in Wisconsin and maintains a narrower advantage in Pennsylvania with just over a week until Election Day, Reuters/Ipsos opinion polls showed on Monday.

www.reuters.com

- Wisconsin - 1,008 people out of a state population of 5.822 million, let's say half of that...won't/can't vote.....you are still looking at 1,008 people out of 2.4 million.....

So put faith in polls....but dont be suprised when he wins again, there's a large swath of people who won't tell you they will vote for him, because they don't want the BS that goes along with that....

Just because you don't understand statistics and data science, doesn't mean that everyone else doesn't.

 

[ajn678]

Every election there are hundreds of threads started declaring certainty of the outcome relying on polls. In fact, statistically polls have been proven so wrong the odds are vastly better by figuring out the opposite outcome and that is most likely what is accurate.

Everything you said is false.

 

[bongsaway]

You guys put way too much faith in polls, there's a majority of people who simply don't answer polls.

Take a look at this link here, it's to a Reuters Poll, what it says doesn't matter....but how many responses it gets does.

Biden has solid lead in Wisconsin, narrower edge in Pennsylvania: Reuters/Ipsos poll

Democratic presidential challenger Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump by a solid margin in Wisconsin and maintains a narrower advantage in Pennsylvania with just over a week until Election Day, Reuters/Ipsos opinion polls showed on Monday.

www.reuters.com

- Wisconsin - 1,008 people out of a state population of 5.822 million, let's say half of that...won't/can't vote.....you are still looking at 1,008 people out of 2.4 million.....

So put faith in polls....but dont be suprised when he wins again, there's a large swath of people who won't tell you they will vote for him, because they don't want the BS that goes along with that....

They feel so good about him they lie that they voted for him? Makes no sense. I'm proud to say I voted democratic.

 

[ajn678]

exactly, I was looking at it last night and here’s the states Trump needs to win

Arizona
Florida
Georgia
North Carolina
Ohio
Pennsylvania

do any of those seem outside the realm of possibility? Especially with Trump spending big in PA on Joes fracking flip flop. This election in the EC is going to be closer than people think

Its very unlikely that he would win all of them.

 

[Cardinal]

Look at these maps exactly one week before Election Day:

270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map

Create your own forecast for the 2024 presidential election

www.270towin.com

Using a calculator on my browser to add up electoral votes for red, blue, and swing states, I figured out the most Donald Trump could get if today was Election Day is 248. That is 22 EC votes short. That means he would have to steal two states from Joe Biden with no chance of winning New York or California even if he wins Texas and Florida. Realistically, no scenario will award the rattlesnake 270 EC votes.

He could win through a series of polling errors and because vote/voter suppression could push the results just those critical extra two points in his favor.

For example, Pennsylvania is, as we all know, one of the most important tipping point states, and Biden is leading by 5.3 points as of this post. If a polling error showed Biden's lead to actually be just 1.3, and if vote suppression pushed the results further by two points, then you have Trump winning with just .7 points, a result that isn't entirely unlike the one from 2016.

Do I think it's likely that a polling error will be so drastic? Personally, no, but I'm just saying the probabilities for Trump are there.

Now that doesn't mean Biden absolutely must have Pennsylvania; but if he gets it his life gets a whole lot easier.

 

[Paradoxical]

Look at these maps exactly one week before Election Day:

270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map

Create your own forecast for the 2024 presidential election

www.270towin.com

Using a calculator on my browser to add up electoral votes for red, blue, and swing states, I figured out the most Donald Trump could get if today was Election Day is 248. That is 22 EC votes short. That means he would have to steal two states from Joe Biden with no chance of winning New York or California even if he wins Texas and Florida. Realistically, no scenario will award the rattlesnake 270 EC votes.

Crowds of 5-10,000 versus 13 pickup trucks

 

[Patriotic Voter]

Crowds of 5-10,000 versus 13 pickup trucks

What makes you think that has anything to do with the mathematical impossibility of Donald Trump winning 270 Electoral College votes if Election Day was this week?

 

[Cardinal]

Can you elaborate on #1 please?

The electoral college rewards the geographic location of voters and not the sizes of the populations. That's how a Republican President was elected twice in this century alone in spite of losing the popular vote.

So let's say a couple moves from Wyoming (3 EC votes) to California (55 EC votes). The EC votes don't change, pretty much no matter what. A result of the forty-year migration from Southern and Midwestern states for coastal states means that previously purple states are now red, and a small handful of purple/blue states are just really, really blue. And that migration has resulted in a large handful of states with very, very few people who have almost equal power to a handful of states with much larger populations.

This seems counter-intuitive when you remember that 55 is a whole lot bigger than 3, but that fact doesn't save the country from a minority of the population selecting its President.

Here's an interactive map showing the relative value of your vote if you lived in one state or another. If you're too busy to check it out, I'll give you the tl;dr version: the smaller the population of the state, the greater the value of your vote across the country as a whole. The more populous your state, the lesser the value of your vote across the country as a whole.

So the result is that if you're rural and white, the EC is what's keeping you in power, and little else except a slew of vote/voter suppression efforts.

Which States Have the Most Powerful Votes?

There are many reasons to dislike the Electoral College: It gives a handful of states the lion’s share of campaign attention; it allows a candidate wit ...

www.slate.com

 

[Crovax]

Its very unlikely that he would win all of them.

I’d say there’s about a 1 in 3 chance

 

[ttwtt78640]

Look at these maps exactly one week before Election Day:

270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map

Create your own forecast for the 2024 presidential election

www.270towin.com

Using a calculator on my browser to add up electoral votes for red, blue, and swing states, I figured out the most Donald Trump could get if today was Election Day is 248. That is 22 EC votes short. That means he would have to steal two states from Joe Biden with no chance of winning New York or California even if he wins Texas and Florida. Realistically, no scenario will award the rattlesnake 270 EC votes.

IIRC, something very similar was said in 2016.

 

[Helix]

anyone listen to this ?

What If?

If a president happened to break a few political norms and decide, in the face of defeat, to fight instead of concede, what would actually happen? Today we choose our own adventure.

www.wnycstudios.org

i just did. yikes. summary : a number of intellectuals and former officials conducted a war-game type activity to look at various potential outcomes of the election and how those might play out. this episode covers the results of one of the more plausible scenarios. it was a nice "oh, shit. i didn't know that" sort of experience for my commute home. definitely worth a listen.

 

[Crovax]

The electoral college rewards the geographic location of voters and not the sizes of the populations. That's how a Republican President was elected twice in this century alone in spite of losing the popular vote.

So let's say a couple moves from Wyoming (3 EC votes) to California (55 EC votes). The EC votes don't change, pretty much no matter what. A result of the forty-year migration from Southern and Midwestern states for coastal states means that previously purple states are now red, and a small handful of purple/blue states are just really, really blue. And that migration has resulted in a large handful of states with very, very few people who have almost equal power to a handful of states with much larger populations.

This seems counter-intuitive when you remember that 55 is a whole lot bigger than 3, but that fact doesn't save the country from a minority of the population selecting its President.

Here's an interactive map showing the relative value of your vote if you lived in one state or another. If you're too busy to check it out, I'll give you the tl;dr version: the smaller the population of the state, the greater the value of your vote across the country as a whole. The more populous your state, the lesser the value of your vote across the country as a whole.

So the result is that if you're rural and white, the EC is what's keeping you in power, and little else except a slew of vote/voter suppression efforts.

Which States Have the Most Powerful Votes?

There are many reasons to dislike the Electoral College: It gives a handful of states the lion’s share of campaign attention; it allows a candidate wit ...

www.slate.com

Every time people talk about the EC all they talk about is comparing Wyoming to CA because that comparison is the only one you can really do to make the EC look bad. If you compare any of the rest the numbers really aren’t that far out of line especially not to get more than a shoulder shrug

 

[The Mark]

The electoral college rewards the geographic location of voters and not the sizes of the populations. That's how a Republican President was elected twice in this century alone in spite of losing the popular vote.

So let's say a couple moves from Wyoming (3 EC votes) to California (55 EC votes). The EC votes don't change, pretty much no matter what. A result of the forty-year migration from Southern and Midwestern states for coastal states means that previously purple states are now red, and a small handful of purple/blue states are just really, really blue. And that migration has resulted in a large handful of states with very, very few people who have almost equal power to a handful of states with much larger populations.

This seems counter-intuitive when you remember that 55 is a whole lot bigger than 3, but that fact doesn't save the country from a minority of the population selecting its President.

Here's an interactive map showing the relative value of your vote if you lived in one state or another. If you're too busy to check it out, I'll give you the tl;dr version: the smaller the population of the state, the greater the value of your vote across the country as a whole. The more populous your state, the lesser the value of your vote across the country as a whole.

So the result is that if you're rural and white, the EC is what's keeping you in power, and little else except a slew of vote/voter suppression efforts.

Which States Have the Most Powerful Votes?

There are many reasons to dislike the Electoral College: It gives a handful of states the lion’s share of campaign attention; it allows a candidate wit ...

www.slate.com

Dang, PA needs more EC power.

 

[Patriotic Voter]

IIRC, something very similar was said in 2016.

Can you elaborate?

People need to stop trying to compare 2016 and 2020. Donald Trump is running against Joe Biden, not Hillary Clinton. It is ridiculous to pretend this is a repeat of the worst election in my lifetime.

 

[mrjurrs]

Can you elaborate on #1 please?

Because of disproportionate Senate/population representation, the EC over 'samples' small white rural states. As of now, white and rural means mainly R voters.