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Why does anybody think Donald Trump will win?

Patriotic Voter

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Look at these maps exactly one week before Election Day:
Using a calculator on my browser to add up electoral votes for red, blue, and swing states, I figured out the most Donald Trump could get if today was Election Day is 248. That is 22 EC votes short. That means he would have to steal two states from Joe Biden with no chance of winning New York or California even if he wins Texas and Florida. Realistically, no scenario will award the rattlesnake 270 EC votes.
 
Look at these maps exactly one week before Election Day:
Using a calculator on my browser to add up electoral votes for red, blue, and swing states, I figured out the most Donald Trump could get if today was Election Day is 248. That is 22 EC votes short. That means he would have to steal two states from Joe Biden with no chance of winning New York or California even if he wins Texas and Florida. Realistically, no scenario will award the rattlesnake 270 EC votes.
It is accurate that as things currently stand, if the elections went precisely (or fairly close) to how the polls indicate they will, Trump would lose.

But polls always have a margin of error, and can also potentially make mistakes outside that.

Trump has a much smaller chance of winning than Biden, but that's not the same as no chance.

There's less room for things to change than in 2016 though.
 
Look at these maps exactly one week before Election Day:
Using a calculator on my browser to add up electoral votes for red, blue, and swing states, I figured out the most Donald Trump could get if today was Election Day is 248. That is 22 EC votes short. That means he would have to steal two states from Joe Biden with no chance of winning New York or California even if he wins Texas and Florida. Realistically, no scenario will award the rattlesnake 270 EC votes.
All of the polling would have to be just as off as it was in 2016, and even if that's true, Biden still has the edge. It's hard to see how Trump pulls it off, considering he narrowly won in 3 states in 2016, and I doubt he gained additional voters. However, it is 2020, and this is a bizarre, ridiculous year, so I'm being cautious about this. Optimistic, but cautious.
 
Quite a few of the states are only separated by a few percentage points and at that margin, polls start to become pretty iffy. There are a lot of states in play, and therefore a lot of uncertainty. I will say that Biden is much better positioned than Trump, and I think voter enthusiasm is much higher for Democrats than 2016.
 
He still has a path to victory. It's more narrow than 2016; his edges in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are gone, but he can still string together enough states to win the EC.
 
You guys put way too much faith in polls, there's a majority of people who simply don't answer polls.

Take a look at this link here, it's to a Reuters Poll, what it says doesn't matter....but how many responses it gets does.


- Wisconsin - 1,008 people out of a state population of 5.822 million, let's say half of that...won't/can't vote.....you are still looking at 1,008 people out of 2.4 million.....

So put faith in polls....but dont be suprised when he wins again, there's a large swath of people who won't tell you they will vote for him, because they don't want the BS that goes along with that....
 
All of the polling would have to be just as off as it was in 2016, and even if that's true, Biden still has the edge. It's hard to see how Trump pulls it off, considering he narrowly won in 3 states in 2016, and I doubt he gained additional voters. However, it is 2020, and this is a bizarre, ridiculous year, so I'm being cautious about this. Optimistic, but cautious.


The thing is, the polling was not far off in 2016. It did not focus on or accuretely predict the electoral college vote. It did reflect the popular vote accurately.

And since Trump’s win was almost entirely attributable to low voter turnout amongst Democrats in the states he pulled his inside straight from, that’s not likely to repeat, unless the Trump forces can get out a lot more talk radio types.

And Trump is now a know entity. He has no record to run on, dispite the empty rantings of his supporters. And he has a crisis that he has ignored and mismanaged from the beginning.

I think it will hinge on whether or not sufficient numbers of Americans are tired of his act.
 
Look at these maps exactly one week before Election Day:
Using a calculator on my browser to add up electoral votes for red, blue, and swing states, I figured out the most Donald Trump could get if today was Election Day is 248. That is 22 EC votes short. That means he would have to steal two states from Joe Biden with no chance of winning New York or California even if he wins Texas and Florida. Realistically, no scenario will award the rattlesnake 270 EC votes.

see 2016
 
Look at these maps exactly one week before Election Day...

1) The Electoral College is biased in favor of Republicans.

2) Trump eked out a very narrow victory based on a few thousand votes in 2016.

3) Trump and the Republicans are doing everything they can to suppress Democratic votes.
 
All of the polling would have to be just as off as it was in 2016, and even if that's true, Biden still has the edge. It's hard to see how Trump pulls it off, considering he narrowly won in 3 states in 2016, and I doubt he gained additional voters. However, it is 2020, and this is a bizarre, ridiculous year, so I'm being cautious about this. Optimistic, but cautious.

The polling wasn't off in 2016, the actual results were in accord with the margins for error stated for the polls.

The margins this time are there but rather a lot smaller, so the probability of Trump winning is undeniably rather a lot less than last time.
 
Every election there are hundreds of threads started declaring certainty of the outcome relying on polls. In fact, statistically polls have been proven so wrong the odds are vastly better by figuring out the opposite outcome and that is most likely what is accurate.
 
1) The Electoral College is biased in favor of Republicans.

2) Trump eked out a very narrow victory based on a few thousand votes in 2016.

3) Trump and the Republicans are doing everything they can to suppress Democratic votes.

Even Joe Biden himself brags that the Democratic Party has the most organized voter fraud activities in USA election history.
 
I personally don't see how Trump wins beyond taking the election to his Supreme Court.

I appreciate the math and acknowledge he has a possible electoral path, but we are not seeing record numbers of Americans voting in order to reelect Donald J. Trump.

With one week to go, I see Biden convincingly winning the White House and Dems flipping the Senate.
 
Look at these maps exactly one week before Election Day:
Using a calculator on my browser to add up electoral votes for red, blue, and swing states, I figured out the most Donald Trump could get if today was Election Day is 248. That is 22 EC votes short. That means he would have to steal two states from Joe Biden with no chance of winning New York or California even if he wins Texas and Florida. Realistically, no scenario will award the rattlesnake 270 EC votes.
I pray to God you are correct my friend
 
You guys put way too much faith in polls, there's a majority of people who simply don't answer polls.

Take a look at this link here, it's to a Reuters Poll, what it says doesn't matter....but how many responses it gets does.


- Wisconsin - 1,008 people out of a state population of 5.822 million, let's say half of that...won't/can't vote.....you are still looking at 1,008 people out of 2.4 million.....

So put faith in polls....but dont be suprised when he wins again, there's a large swath of people who won't tell you they will vote for him, because they don't want the BS that goes along with that....

1008 is actually a good sample size. Here's a website that calculates how many people need to be surveyed to get a confidence level of 95%, confidence interval of 3%, with a population of 5.822 million: https://www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm

2020-10-27 15.05.15 www.surveysystem.com 57a8dfafc963.png

So if you want to be 95% confident that your results are correct with a 3% margin of error, then you only need 1067 people. Notice that even when you make the population significantly larger the sample size needed doesn't change. What's more important is that your sample population is truly random and that the responses they give are honest. Those are the things that should be called into question, not the sample size.
 
The thing is, the polling was not far off in 2016. It did not focus on or accuretely predict the electoral college vote. It did reflect the popular vote accurately.

And since Trump’s win was almost entirely attributable to low voter turnout amongst Democrats in the states he pulled his inside straight from, that’s not likely to repeat, unless the Trump forces can get out a lot more talk radio types.

And Trump is now a know entity. He has no record to run on, dispite the empty rantings of his supporters. And he has a crisis that he has ignored and mismanaged from the beginning.

I think it will hinge on whether or not sufficient numbers of Americans are tired of his act.
This is the biggest takeaway for me. He no longer has "what have you got to lose" in his favor. Hillary was also a very dislikable person. Biden is not.
 
He still has a path to victory. It's more narrow than 2016; his edges in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are gone, but he can still string together enough states to win the EC.

This is all about having enough electoral votes, not enough states. Look at the numbers on the map. Few states with more than 10 electoral votes are red.
 
Look at these maps exactly one week before Election Day:
Using a calculator on my browser to add up electoral votes for red, blue, and swing states, I figured out the most Donald Trump could get if today was Election Day is 248. That is 22 EC votes short. That means he would have to steal two states from Joe Biden with no chance of winning New York or California even if he wins Texas and Florida. Realistically, no scenario will award the rattlesnake 270 EC votes.

Anything can happen, though. I learned that years ago. People need to not be complacent and get out and vote, if they haven't done so already.
 
Anything can happen, though. I learned that years ago. People need to not be complacent and get out and vote, if they haven't done so already.

Democrats certainly learned that lesson the hard way. I have full confidence none of them will make that mistake again.
 
1) The Electoral College is biased in favor of Republicans.

2) Trump eked out a very narrow victory based on a few thousand votes in 2016.

3) Trump and the Republicans are doing everything they can to suppress Democratic votes.
Can you elaborate on #1 please?
 
Every election there are hundreds of threads started declaring certainty of the outcome relying on polls. In fact, statistically polls have been proven so wrong the odds are vastly better by figuring out the opposite outcome and that is most likely what is accurate.

You have absolutely no idea what you're talking about.
 
Look at these maps exactly one week before Election Day:
Using a calculator on my browser to add up electoral votes for red, blue, and swing states, I figured out the most Donald Trump could get if today was Election Day is 248. That is 22 EC votes short. That means he would have to steal two states from Joe Biden with no chance of winning New York or California even if he wins Texas and Florida. Realistically, no scenario will award the rattlesnake 270 EC votes.

It's because they don't understands maths.

Their hero doesn't understand the difference between plurals and possessives.

Our current President, Trump, would fail a 4th-grade English/Reading test. And his supporters are even dumber than that.
 
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