Who will win the House?

Atomic Kid · Nov 5, 2018

Middleground said:
Too bad. He's such an awesome candidate.

And too bad Cruz felt he needed to hand over his manhood card to Trump in order to get him to come campaign for him. Talk about being publicly emasculated. Don't know how he's even able to able to even look himself in the mirror.

Divine_Wind · Nov 5, 2018

Atomic Kid said:
And too bad Cruz felt he needed to hand over his manhood card to Trump in order to get him to come campaign for him. Talk about being publicly emasculated. Don't know how he's even able to able to even look himself in the mirror.

Agreed. Obviously winning reelection means more to Cruz than his honor, his respect for his wife, his integrity and justice.

That said, and I apologize if mistaken, but didn't you post that you weren't an American nor living in the USA?

Unitedwestand13 · Nov 5, 2018

Anagram said:
While I do remember Davis's campaign garnered an unnecessary amount of media attention considering it was never a close race, I'd like to point out that she never led nor tied in any poll of that race, and only in one poll in all of 2014 was the margin single digits (9%). Additionally, the only poll in the last two weeks of that race got it exactly right. I don't see any BS polls from that race.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_gubernatorial_election,_2014

That said, this certainly doesn't mean O'Rourke will win. Polls, by and large, have had him down and Cruz at or approaching 50%. For O'Rourke to win, the Texas polls don't just have to be accurate, they have to be underestimating him.

Maybe the polls by design are underestimating Beto’s chances.

Aren’t most public polls conducted via landlines? If that is the case then thoes polls would overlook the users of cell phones.

Anagram · Nov 5, 2018

Unitedwestand13 said:
Maybe the polls by design are underestimating Beto’s chances.

Aren’t most public polls conducted via landlines? If that is the case then thoes polls would overlook the users of cell phones.

Most actually call cell phones now. Only a few, like Emerson, don't.

The polls might be off, but if they are, there really isn't a precedent for them to be off by as much as it would take O'Rourke to win in a state that was so heavily polled. There was a low quality poll that showed them tied over the weekend. I suppose it's possible there's some last minute momentum his way. Probably more likely than a systematic polling error in Texas. I would still bet against him though.

Divine_Wind · Nov 5, 2018

Unitedwestand13 said:
Maybe the polls by design are underestimating Beto’s chances.

Aren’t most public polls conducted via landlines? If that is the case then thoes polls would overlook the users of cell phones.

It depends upon the poll. Smart people can differentiate between the biased and unbiased ones.

Unitedwestand13 · Nov 5, 2018

Anagram said:
Most actually call cell phones now. Only a few, like Emerson, don't.

The polls might be off, but if they are, there really isn't a precedent for them to be off by as much as it would take O'Rourke to win in a state that was so heavily polled. There was a low quality poll that showed them tied over the weekend. I suppose it's possible there's some last minute momentum his way. Probably more likely than a systematic polling error in Texas. I would still bet against him though.

First time voters sometimes get overlooked.

Also, idon’t Think it would be safe to assume that everyone votes straight party ticket all the time. Doug jones won in Alabama and Conner lamb won in a traditionally red congressional district. They must have received votes from some Republican Party voters

Anagram · Nov 5, 2018

Unitedwestand13 said:
First time voters sometimes get overlooked.

Also, idon’t Think it would be safe to assume that everyone votes straight party ticket all the time. Doug jones won in Alabama and Conner lamb won in a traditionally red congressional district. They must have received votes from some Republican Party voters

I don't think it's safe to assume everyone votes straight party all the time either. O'Rourke will assuredly come much closer to Cruz than Valdez will against Abbott.

The Mark · Nov 5, 2018

Captain America said:
Democrats need to realize that just having more voters does not necessarily mean they will win elections, what with the gerrymandering advantage that has benefitted their opposing party. If majority vote was the decisive measure, Trump wouldn't be president (in relation to presidential elections and the EC,) and states wouldn't have law suits bouncing arount the courts in regards to their unfair gerrymandering, thereby usurping the will of the majorities.

No. Today's elections, the Republican party is given a "handicap," much like a novice golfer might be given. That means democrats will have to not only out vote them, but out vote them with a tsunami vengence. Close only counts in horse shoes and hand grenades.

Well for me it's tomorrow still.

And I'm hoping the PASCOTUS decision and congressional map will help with at least those races, against gerrymandering.

brothern · Nov 5, 2018

Unitedwestand13 said:
Aren’t most public polls conducted via landlines? If that is the case then thoes polls would overlook the users of cell phones.

Anagram said:
Most actually call cell phones now. Only a few, like Emerson, don't. The polls might be off, but if they are, there really isn't a precedent for them to be off by as much as it would take O'Rourke to win in a state that was so heavily polled. There was a low quality poll that showed them tied over the weekend. I suppose it's possible there's some last minute momentum his way. Probably more likely than a systematic polling error in Texas. I would still bet against him though.

A lot of pollsters have commented upon the challenges that today's environment, cell phones and caller ID pose. Because right now, we're experiencing a tidal wave of telemarketing and robocalls. Something like 45% of American phone call traffic solely consists of this nonsense. It's led to a situation where it's incredibly difficult for pollsters to actually connect with real people who can vote and have the patience to answer questions.

Unfortunately I don't think there is a systematic tilt. Meaning, in today's climate, I don't think the polls are systematically under- or overestimating support for any particular candidate or party. I feel—at least from what I've read—that pollsters have simply been getting garbage input and therefore random, garbage output to their questions.

On the other question ... I hope Beto wins. I think there's a snowball's chance in heck. It's Texas.

Unitedwestand13 · Nov 5, 2018

Anagram said:
I don't think it's safe to assume everyone votes straight party all the time either. O'Rourke will assuredly come much closer to Cruz than Valdez will against Abbott.

I think all bets are off in this election.

The current number of ballots cast in Texas is reportedly at 5.8 million ballots cast. I also found one that one data analyst, Derek Ryan, analyzed the numbers of Texas’s early voting and based on what he found he estimated that voter turnout on Election Day would be projected at 8.2 million voters.

Midterm elections are normally low turn out affairs, this one is shaping up to be something completely different

Unitedwestand13 · Nov 5, 2018

brothern said:
A lot of pollsters have commented upon the challenges that today's environment, cell phones and caller ID pose. Because right now, we're experiencing a tidal wave of telemarketing and robocalls. Something like 45% of American phone call traffic solely consists of this nonsense. It's led to a situation where it's incredibly difficult for pollsters to actually connect with real people who can vote and have the patience to answer questions.

Unfortunately I don't think there is a systematic tilt. Meaning, in today's climate, I don't think the polls are systematically under- or overestimates support for any particular candidate or party. I feel—at least from what I've read—that pollsters have simply been getting garbage input and therefore random, garbage output to their questions.

On the other question ... I hope Beto wins. I think there's a snowball's chance in heck. It's Texas.

Senator Doug jones managed to win in Alabama, So Texas is fair game.

brothern · Nov 5, 2018

Unitedwestand13 said:
Senator Doug jones managed to win in Alabama, So Texas is fair game.

Roy Moore is a kiddy fiddler.

Anagram · Nov 5, 2018

Unitedwestand13 said:
Senator Doug jones managed to win in Alabama, So Texas is fair game.

I don't think that necessarily follows. That Alabama election was a special case. Very serious allegations against Moore, and basically the entire Republican party refused to support him. Some like Jeff Flake even endorsed his opponent.

Whatever you think of Ted Cruz, he certainly doesn't have anything like those allegations following him. And he has wide institutional support among Republicans and Super Pacs dropping tons of money into electing him.

I don't think Alabama's election last year and Texas's this year can really be compared.

MTAtech · Nov 5, 2018

jmotivator said:
Well, technically the "wave" was meant to be an overwhelming victory... originally envisioned to be the House and the Senate.

The "Blue wave" was not mean to be a narrow takeover of the house by 4 to 5 seats. That would be about average for a president's first midterm.

Edit: Also, I am in the "I don't know" camp because that really is the most honest response I can give. I don't think the Democrats confidence is any more helpful this time around than it was in 2016.

Governors Update: Democrats Could Win In Some Very Red States

Democrats really could win the gubernatorial races in Alaska and Kansas next week.

A Big Blue Wave Could Overwhelm The GOP’s Advantage In The House

trixare4kids · Nov 5, 2018

Rising Sun said:
Agreed on House, I doubt Beto becomes a Senator but he's certainly scaring the crap out of Cruz.

Nah. RCP has Cruz up +6

Unitedwestand13 · Nov 5, 2018

Anagram said:
I don't think that necessarily follows. That Alabama election was a special case. Very serious allegations against Moore, and basically the entire Republican party refused to support him. Some like Jeff Flake even endorsed his opponent.

Whatever you think of Ted Cruz, he certainly doesn't have anything like those allegations following him. And he has wide institutional support among Republicans and Super Pacs dropping tons of money into electing him.

I don't think Alabama's election last year and Texas's this year can really be compared.

I think there are supporters of David dewhurst’s Senate Campaign who would likely disagree with your assessment of Cruz.

I think there may be enough republicans willing to vote for Beto in order for him to possibly win.

And I know the polls have shown Cruz as being 6 points ahead, but I think the polls have been wrong about Texas politics before. Governor Ann Richards ring any bells.

Deuce · Nov 5, 2018

I voted Democrats taking house but am also aware they are 100% capable of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, as always

Deuce · Nov 5, 2018

Unitedwestand13 said:
I think the factors of this election favor Beto’s chances.

Ted Cruz is not exactly the most popular political figure in Texas politics and not all republicans are necessary in favor of him.

Also, Beto has been relentless in his get out the vote efforts.

I think Beto can win.

It’s long odds I think but certainly not out of the question. Cruz is a ****heel and all the Trump fans know how much Cruz haaaaates Uncle Donny. In a midterm that’s a problem for Cruz. In a presidential year people would show up to vote Trump and go ehhhhh ok i’ll vote Cruz too because **** Democrats. In a midterm, though.... Cruz better hope there’s good down-ballot races driving conservative turnout

MTAtech · Nov 5, 2018

If the GOP holds the line on Tuesday, it may be the last even halfway fair elections we’ll ever have.

The lesson we learn from all these abuses of power, such as the expensive wag-the-dog with the caravan and voter suppression, is that today’s Republicans are just like their fellow white nationalists in Hungary and Poland, who have maintained a democratic facade but have in reality established one-party authoritarian regimes. Everything we’ve seen says that Republicans will do anything they can to take and hold power, and Tuesday’s elections may be the last chance to stop them from locking in permanent rule.

Oh, and in case you’re tempted to bothsides this: No, both sides don’t do it. Voting restrictions are almost entirely a Republican thing. As always, Democrats aren’t saints, but they appear to believe in democracy, while their opponents don’t.

Anagram · Nov 5, 2018

Unitedwestand13 said:
I think there are supporters of David dewhurst’s Senate Campaign who would likely disagree with your assessment of Cruz.

I think there may be enough republicans willing to vote for Beto in order for him to possibly win.

And I know the polls have shown Cruz as being 6 points ahead, but I think the polls have been wrong about Texas politics before. Governor Ann Richards ring any bells.

I can't find any data for what the Texas polls were in 1990 near the election, only that Richard's was surging after a series of Williams' gaffes down the stretch. But I can't find any actual numbers.

My only assessment of Cruz in that post was that he didn't have any child-rape allegations. As far as I know, Dewhurst and his supporters would probably not agree that Cruz has anything like that. Cruz being in general an asshole certainly wasn't enough to stop Cruz from being elected in 2012 by 17% when his primary victory was still fresh in Dewhurst's supporters minds.

Divine_Wind · Nov 5, 2018

trixare4kids said:
Nah. RCP has Cruz up +6

Nah meaning you disagree my claim Cruz will win? WTF?

Atomic Kid · Nov 5, 2018

Rising Sun said:
Agreed. Obviously winning reelection means more to Cruz than his honor, his respect for his wife, his integrity and justice.

That said, and I apologize if mistaken, but didn't you post that you weren't an American nor living in the USA?

I'm 100% born American and been around for quite some time too. If you remember I told you in another thread that I experienced the 60's and that's part of what my avatar is about.

Divine_Wind · Nov 5, 2018

Atomic Kid said:
I'm 100% born American and been around for quite some time too. If you remember I told you in another thread that I experienced the 60's and that's part of what my avatar is about.

Sorry, but I don't track everyone. I accept you at your word.

trixare4kids · Nov 5, 2018

Rising Sun said:
Nah meaning you disagree my claim Cruz will win? WTF?

Calm down.
I implied that Cruz has nothing to fear; +6.

Crosscheck · Nov 5, 2018

I'll just be glad when this election is over. The amount spent on television ads by a hotly contested representative race here is over the top.

And it is all the same old worn out gimmicks used. The use of the black and white photo of your opponent taken with the most unflattering shot has been used so much it makes me hate who ever says "I am Blah Blah and I have zero originality or creativity and I approve of this ad".

Who will win the House?