What's the probability Rubio will drop out to avoid home state humiliation?

[SDET]

Rubio is behind the polls in Florida and his numbers collapsed tonight's contests. Will Rubio drop out in the next ten days?

 

[Hawkeye10]

If he did he could never run again....he has to show that he believes in himself, and that he believes in the people of his home state.

 

[Kobie]

If he did he could never run again....he has to show that he believes in himself, and that he believes in the peole of his home state.

Eh, Romney dropped out in February of 2008 and had no issue running again.

 

[Hawkeye10]

Eh, Romney dropped out in February of 2008 and had no issue running again.

Was that within a few days of the primary of his state?

 

[EnigmaO01]

Rubio is behind the polls in Florida and his numbers collapsed tonight's contests. Will Rubio drop out in the next ten days?

If he can't win his own state he needs to face reality. And he needs to win 8 states to be a contendor in a brokered convention right?

 

[Hawkeye10]

If he can't win his own state he needs to face reality. And he needs to win 8 states to be a contendor in a brokered convention right?

No, they can do what ever they want at the convention.

Consider the 8 state idea an advisory.

 

[Redress]

If he can't win his own state he needs to face reality. And he needs to win 8 states to be a contendor in a brokered convention right?

Unless the rules are changed, and rule changes before convention are not unusual(though usually much more minor). His dropping out would also makes a brokered convention less likely and a Trump win more likely. At this point, the only reason for Rubio to stay in is to keep Trump from getting enough delegates to win outright, though an argument could be made for staying in and hoping for a surprise in Florida.

 

[Hawkeye10]

Unless the rules are changed,

Partly wrong. Rule 40 expires the day before the convention.

 

[Kobie]

Was that within a few days of the primary of his state?

Yes, even though he has two states. Utah and Massachusetts were both Super Tuesday states in 2008; he dropped out two days later.

My point is, I think Rubio's made it far enough where if he were to drop out soon, it wouldn't preclude him from running again. Voters have short memories.

 

[Redress]

Partly wrong. Rule 40 expires the day before the convention.

Technically, all the rules expire the day before the convention, sorta. The rules committee meets that day. That in no way changes what I said. Unless the rules committee decides to act to change the rule, it will remain in place.

 

[Hawkeye10]

Yes, even though he has two states. Utah and Massachusetts were both Super Tuesday states in 2008; he dropped out two days later.

My point is, I think Rubio's made it far enough where if he were to drop out soon, it wouldn't preclude him from running again. Voters have short memories.

Maybe, and maybe Romney had stronger connections to his state than Rubio has in his. And maybe Romney was a better politician. I dont think that Rubio can do it, if he drops out now he is going to have to go open a car lot or something.

 

[joG]

Rubio is behind the polls in Florida and his numbers collapsed tonight's contests. Will Rubio drop out in the next ten days?

Does it matter?

 

[Hawkeye10]

Technically, all the rules expire the day before the convention, sorta. The rules committee meets that day. That in no way changes what I said. Unless the rules committee decides to act to change the rule, it will remain in place.

You are wrong because the rules must be adopted the day before. If there is no setting of rules then there are no rules. I know that this is technical but words have meanning, and you are misusing them.

 

[joG]

If he did he could never run again....he has to show that he believes in himself, and that he believes in the people of his home state.

Staying in the race only shows him believing in nevernerver land.

 

[Redress]

You are wrong because the rules must be adopted the day before. If there is no setting of rules then there are no rules. I know that this is technical but words have meanning, and you are misusing them.

Again, sorta. What happens is that they adopt the previous rules with any changes. In practicality, they have to specifically act to change the rule. They are unlikely to do so, though it is possible. Right now, any one who is looking at a brokered convention to stop Trump is probably looking at Cruz. Changing the rules to make it Rubio would result in a really big backlash(though brokered convention choosing Cruz would have a similar if probably somewhat lesser effect).

 

[jamesrage]

Rubio is behind the polls in Florida and his numbers collapsed tonight's contests. Will Rubio drop out in the next ten days?

The same as John Kasich dropping out before his state.

 

[Carjosse]

Shame really, by far the most sane Republican candidate.

 

[shrubnose]

Maybe, and maybe Romney had stronger connections to his state than Rubio has in his. And maybe Romney was a better politician. I dont think that Rubio can do it,

if he drops out now he is going to have to go open a car lot or something.

Rubio is a U.S. Senator. Maybe he'll just stick with that job.

 

[Fiddytree]

Florida will be like his mentor's South Carolina.

 

[Kobie]

Maybe, and maybe Romney had stronger connections to his state than Rubio has in his. And maybe Romney was a better politician. I dont think that Rubio can do it, if he drops out now he is going to have to go open a car lot or something.

I don't see how "his state" makes any difference here, really. I'm not sold on Rubio as a politician, but if he drops out now, I don't think it would particularly affect any future run one way or another. It is what it is.

 

[Bucky]

If he did he could never run again....he has to show that he believes in himself, and that he believes in the people of his home state.

He betrayed the people of Florida. The only politician more unpopular than Marco Rubio in Florida is Charlie Crist.

Rubio needs to apologize to Floridians and Republicans for trying to push amnesty on America. Rubio and Cruz were tea party darlings. Cruz didn't cut and run, Rubio did.

 

[Hawkeye10]

Rubio is a U.S. Senator. Maybe he'll just stick with that job.

IDK that he can, he was told not to run but did it anyway and sucked at it, then these last 10 days he seems to have had a personality melt down, and he went after Bush. He also has to deal with the fact that is blindly followed the consultants and donor classes evaluation that the thing to do was to pander to hispanics, and as we know Trump and Cruz have driven home what a mistake that was, and then to compound the problem the little twerp tried to pretend that he never did it.

I think I see a car lot in his future.

 

[Hawkeye10]

I am going to drop this in this thread because it sort of fits, better than others that I have found:

Rubio, Trump said, “had a very, very bad night, and personally, I’d call for him to drop out of the race.”
He added later, in reference to the dispute with Rubio over the implications of his hand size, “So far, everyone that’s attacked me has gone down.”


Read more: Trump to GOP: Third party run would be dangerous - POLITICO

And he was calling Cruz "Ted" tonight. What this tells me is that he is giving Cruz a pass for attacking him, which brings me back to wondering what I have been wondering since OCT.....Do Ted and Donald have a deal that they hatched long ago to team up to take over the party?

Dang, that would sure explain a lot, and if so Romney and the rest of that crew can **** off, this was over awhile ago, there is going to be a new Republican Party.

EDIT: I will add that multiple people have concluded that Trump is acting like this is over, that he is already running in the General.

 

[Hawkeye10]

I also want to add that I think when Trump says "Little Rubio could not get elected dog catcher" that it is a stab to the heart of Rubio, because while it is not literally true it is close enough that his political career is toast and he knows it. Worse because the little twerp in boots had a lot to doing with queering the deal with the donor classes choice (JEB!) and because of rank incompetence in politics he does not get to hook himself up to the consultants gravy train, to what ever degree it survives after Trump.

 

[Port & Starboard]

Rubio is behind the polls in Florida and his numbers collapsed tonight's contests. Will Rubio drop out in the next ten days?

I think he stays in hopes of a brokered convention.