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What the Tea Party has done for the Republican Party

Catz Part Deux

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2 Insurgents Could Hurt G.O.P. Chances for Senate Takeover - NYTimes.com

Tomorrow’s primaries in New York and six other states — the last of the 2010 cycle, save for Saturday’s primary in Hawaii and a runoff in Louisiana on Oct. 2 — originally looked as though they’d have little impact on the electoral landscape. Although some of the primaries were nominally competitive – like the Republican Senate race in Maryland, where a suite of 11 candidates will be on the ballot — they were typically not so in places where the nominee stood a strong chance of winning the general election.

Two races, however, have changed that equation. And depending on how they are resolved, Republican chances of taking over the Senate could be enhanced or significantly diminished.

But then a strange thing happened. Joe Miller, who had the backing of Sarah Palin and the Tea Party Express, upended the incumbent Lisa Murkowski in the Republican Senate primary in Alaska. Although the outcome arguably should not have been such a surprise – a dearth of polling concealed whatever momentum Mr. Miller might have been gaining – it emboldened Tea Party activists and some other conservatives, who were reminded that in this topsy-turvy electoral cycle, few incumbents and establishment politicians are safe. Mr. Castle — a moderate who is unambiguously a member of the establishment – was next on their target list. And so Ms. O’Donnell, who already had the support of the Tea Party, last week received endorsements from Republican thought-leaders like Ms. Palin, the National Rifle Association and Senator James DeMint of South Carolina.

In contrast to Alaska, however, where Mr. Miller is the favorite to be elected unless Ms. Murkowski finds her way onto the ballot as a Libertarian or write-in candidate, Delaware is a blue state, and the electoral prospects of Mr. Castle and Ms. O’Donnell there are wildly divergent. Whereas Mr. Castle is nearly a 95 percent favorite against the Democratic nominee, Chris Coons, according to last week’s FiveThirtyEight forecasting model, Ms. O’Donnell would have just a 17 percent chance of winning a race against Mr. Coons.

The primaries in Delaware and New Hampshire have implications far beyond their borders. The forecast model that we ran last week gave Republicans a 26 percent chance of taking over the Senate — and enough states are tossups that they would be well within reach of doing so if the elections were held today. But this forecast was based on a weighted average likelihood of various candidates winning their primaries — for example, we had estimated that Ms. O’Donnell had a 25 percent chance of prevailing in Delaware, and Mr. Lamontange a 30 percent chance of doing so in New Hampshire — leaving Mr. Castle and Ms. Ayotte as the favorites.

If Ms. O’Donnell and Mr. Lamontange were both to win their primaries, however, the Republican chances of a Senate takeover would fall to just 16 percent, according to the model. Conversely, if Mr. Castle and Ms. Ayotte were to win, Republicans chances would rise to 30 percent. Thus, Republican prospects of claiming the Senate could be nearly halved if both the insurgent candidates were to prevail.
Be careful what you wish for...because you just might get it all.
 

Boo Radley

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Good advice almost always.
 

ReverendHellh0und

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Right back at you. If the republicans don't take the senate, the bag will be 100% yours. ;)
 

Zyphlin

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While I'd love to win both houses this year, I'm absolutely fine with not winning either if it creates an actual shift in the GOP towards foundational conservative values and sticking to those principles in teh long run.

If we have to have some establishment moderate republicans lose to even questionable candidates to send that message, so be it. As long as the message gets sent. Becuase once its done, and its realized, and its actually acted upon, then that will increase the chance for the solidly conservative non-questionable individuals to actually make real and legitimate runs for office in the future.

I have no issue with not being an ADHD party when it comes to this thing that needs immediete gratification.
 

hazlnut

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2 Insurgents Could Hurt G.O.P. Chances for Senate Takeover - NYTimes.com



Be careful what you wish for...because you just might get it all.
What's really going to be interesting is the first time a TP backed Senator or Congressman has to vote on a bill that requires some type of spending...

The new TP Congressmen have to run again in two years, so how long before they take credit for bringing money/jobs to their district/state?

Wait until Boehner and some seasoned lobbyists get hold of these upstarts and dangle a nice shiny apple... with a few strings attacked.
 

Catz Part Deux

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If we have to have some establishment moderate republicans lose to even questionable candidates to send that message, so be it.
I'd prefer to see a moderate 3rd party created from the centrists that you so disdain, so if the teaparty drags the Republican party far to the rght, the odds of that increases. I see this as win/win for me.
 

Zyphlin

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I'd prefer to see a moderate 3rd party created from the centrists that you so disdain, so if the teaparty drags the Republican party far to the rght, the odds of that increases. I see this as win/win for me.
I think you got me confused for someone else. I don't have disdain for Centrists and am not one that usually poo poos them. In regards to votes and issues you could possibly put me somewhat in the Centrist camp, I just don't identify with it generally because I tend to come to those views born from conservative principles not a mixing of liberal and conservative beliefs.

I think a Centrist 3rd party could be interesting, I just don't think its likely. The problem with centrists is there's no real cohesion on what points are important to them. You have centrists that are Hawkish when it comes to the WOT but liberal when it comes to social services. You have centrists who are in favor of gay marriage, pro-life, pro-drug legalization, but who want social programs to go away and low taxes. You have centrists that want the war on terror to be stopped but want less government regulation of businesses. You have centrists dislike green policies but are in favor of gun control.

The issue with Centrists having a party is that unlike Democrat and Republican where you can find a generalized platform where lets say 90% of their base agrees with at least 75% of the platform to some degree, with Centrists it'd be almost entirely impossible to truly put together a real broadly support platform.

Its why I'll always view "Centrist" as more of a political style then a true ideology or potential party.
 

Catz Part Deux

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I always want moderate centrists to win, regardless what party they are from. Trust me, we're not that complicated. And, I'm unwilling to support radicals from either side. Which is why I'll happily be voting for Crist.
 

Dav

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Isn't it a bit disingenuous to title the thread "What the Tea Party has done for the Republican Party", link to an article, highlighting some relevant parts... but not highlighting the equally relevant part in the same article telling another side to the story?

Nevertheless, it should be remembered that were it not for the enthusiasm of the Tea Party — and other conservative voices outside the Republican establishment — the party might not be in the intriguing position that it finds itself in heading into November. Although Republicans enjoy many advantages in this cycle, perceptions of the party itself is not one of them. Nor are most figures who are identified with the party establishment popular. Instead, it has been the party’s occasional success at portraying itself as consisting of ordinary, aggrieved, disempowered outsiders – a new type of ‘silent majority’ — that have freshened its message for some voters.
The Tea Party might make some mistakes now and then (IMO, anyways), but that doesn't change the fact that they've been a net positive for the GOP.
 

liblady

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Isn't it a bit disingenuous to title the thread "What the Tea Party has done for the Republican Party", link to an article, highlighting some relevant parts... but not highlighting the equally relevant part in the same article telling another side to the story?



The Tea Party might make some mistakes now and then (IMO, anyways), but that doesn't change the fact that they've been a net positive for the GOP.
if they continue to field lunatics they won't be a positive force.
 

Zyphlin

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I always want moderate centrists to win, regardless what party they are from. Trust me, we're not that complicated. And, I'm unwilling to support radicals from either side. Which is why I'll happily be voting for Crist.
Centrist and Moderates, while at times over lapping, are two entirely different things.
 

Zyphlin

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Yes, someone that completely agreed with Iraq and the War on Terror, thinks all drug laws should be abolished, wants government ran healthcare, wants reduced spending by cutting other social programs but a raise in taxes, and thinks that there should be very little gun control is hardly a "moderate" but could definitely be considered a "centrist".
 

Renae

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I'd prefer to see a moderate 3rd party created from the centrists that you so disdain, so if the teaparty drags the Republican party far to the rght, the odds of that increases. I see this as win/win for me.
Hey, can you cite "Great Centrist of the 20th Century" for me? Or through history?
 

Fiddytree

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Benjamin Franklin, Henry Scoop Jackson.

Would a party of moderates work today? Probably not. I do not really have any desire to see it happen either.
 
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disneydude

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While I'd love to win both houses this year, I'm absolutely fine with not winning either if it creates an actual shift in the GOP towards foundational conservative values and sticking to those principles in teh long run.

If we have to have some establishment moderate republicans lose to even questionable candidates to send that message, so be it. As long as the message gets sent. Becuase once its done, and its realized, and its actually acted upon, then that will increase the chance for the solidly conservative non-questionable individuals to actually make real and legitimate runs for office in the future.

I have no issue with not being an ADHD party when it comes to this thing that needs immediete gratification.
Yes Zyph...I agree 100% with what you are saying...and I hope that the GOP continues to send that message through 2012 and beyond. The GOP needs to focus solely on their base and forget about independents and moderates. That's a winning strategy for the GOP.
 

Dav

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Hey, can you cite "Great Centrist of the 20th Century" for me? Or through history?
Eisenhower was pretty great.

Don't really get why you're asking... does someonehave to be unambiguously conservative to be "great" to you?
 

Renae

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Eisenhower was pretty great.

Don't really get why you're asking... does someonehave to be unambiguously conservative to be "great" to you?
Uhm, I'm asking because all the time people like you want moderates... for the life of me I don't understand why. You want someone that has no real principles, no passion, and might go against your best interest because... it's the moderate thing to do?
 

CriticalThought

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While I'd love to win both houses this year, I'm absolutely fine with not winning either if it creates an actual shift in the GOP towards foundational conservative values and sticking to those principles in teh long run.
You can rebrand a bag of crap, but it is still a bag of crap.
 

Dav

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Uhm, I'm asking because all the time people like you want moderates... for the life of me I don't understand why. You want someone that has no real principles, no passion, and might go against your best interest because... it's the moderate thing to do?
Not a single true statement here. I don't want moderates all the time, just when they're the best choice. Centrists aren't inherently devoid of principles or passion, whatever you might think of them. Politicians who only vote a certain way to seem moderate (Crist, Specter, et al) are scumbags with no principles; that doesn't mean that there aren't any genuine moderates and centrists out there who will have a mixed record simply by voting their minds. Sorry, but I value honesty; in certain situations, I'd be willing to vote for a more moderate candidate who I actually could know where they stand than a candidate claiming to be the more consrevative one who I couldn't trust to act in anyone's interest but their own. It depends on the situation of course, but the facts remain that I don't generally prefer moderates over conservatives, that your disdain for centrism is misplaced, and that sometimes the best choice for conservatives is to nominate the moderate candidate.

So which do you hate more, moderates or liberals? I'm not sure at this point, but it seems to me that I was right to think that someone has to be unambiguously conservative to seem "great" to you.
 

Renae

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Not a single true statement here. I don't want moderates all the time, just when they're the best choice.
Which is when? When they vote against your beliefs on big issues? When you really need them they "walk across the aisle"? Or just to get chairmanships via majority?

Centrists aren't inherently devoid of principles or passion, whatever you might think of them. Politicians who only vote a certain way to seem moderate (Crist, Specter, et al) are scumbags with no principles; that doesn't mean that there aren't any genuine moderates and centrists out there who will have a mixed record simply by voting their minds. Sorry, but I value honesty; in certain situations, I'd be willing to vote for a more moderate candidate who I actually could know where they stand than a candidate claiming to be the more consrevative one who I couldn't trust to act in anyone's interest but their own. It depends on the situation of course, but the facts remain that I don't generally prefer moderates over conservatives, that your disdain for centrism is misplaced, and that sometimes the best choice for conservatives is to nominate the moderate candidate.

So which do you hate more, moderates or liberals? I'm not sure at this point, but it seems to me that I was right to think that someone has to be unambiguously conservative to seem "great" to you.
No, I asked a rhetorical question and you got your panties in a bunch over it.

You claim you'd vote moderate over a conservative if you thought you knew where they stood over the conservative "being about themselves".

So we have the Castle Vs. O'Donnell race to see your thinking in action. And you went with the most liberal member of the House.

We don't need liberal GOP members, we need GOP members that will work for what is best for this country.
 

Fiddytree

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Uhm, I'm asking because all the time people like you want moderates... for the life of me I don't understand why. You want someone that has no real principles, no passion, and might go against your best interest because... it's the moderate thing to do?
It would be hard to accuse many men who are moderates of somehow having no real principles or passion.
 
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