[W:#23,579]Ukraine War Thread

[reinaert]

One reason I like this forum, it expands my vocabulary.
This is kind of what I was thinking in my earlier post about an off ramp Putin may be considering.
Or this could be his Gotterdamerung.

One hopes, the latter. I have no faith in the benevolence of this timeline.

 

[W_Heisenberg]

The biggest problem the Russians have is Putin:

 

[Chomsky]

We should know by now, there is no off ramp other than one side's complete defeat. After Macon's futile phone call to Putin, a call Putin refused to take the night before the announcement, unless one has an IQ of a single digit, its absurd to keep expecting that begging Herr Putin while accomplish anything.

Should Ukraine weather this storm Putin will be there next spring pressing the offensive and making the same demands as always. And our side should stop fooling themselves with debate over over tanks, artillery, and long range HIMARS. Ukraine is only going to win this game by the quantity and quality of its equipment, not by its smaller size but much better fighting spirit.

And the best route to that end has always been equally obvious: cut Russian logistics at least 100 miles from the front line. Do that and it does not matter how many are mobilized.

And the best route to that end has always been equally obvious: cut Russian logistics at least 100 miles from the front line. Do that and it does not matter how many are mobilized.

There ya' go! How many of us have proclaimed this from the very get-go?

An army of a million men is worth nothing, if they have not one bullet amongst them!

 

[reinaert]

The biggest problem the Russians have is Putin:

Yep. He is literally following the 'Gitler' path. As in, actual literally.

 

[Chomsky]

Geez. These guys look closer to retirement age, than prime fighting age!

 

[W_Heisenberg]

The Russians appear to be engaging in a mobilization strategy that involves ethnically cleansing their own population by sending minority ethnic groups to die in Ukraine.

 

[reinaert]

The Russians appear to be engaging in a mobilization strategy that involves ethnically cleansing their own population by sending minority ethnic groups to die in Ukraine.

Almost certainly this. Probably making sure every Mari and Chuvash male is sent to fertilize next year's wheat.

 

[Chomsky]

If Putin creates a situation where the only way out for the people opposing him is for them to fight to the death, whether it's Ukrainians or protesting Russian citizens, that's exactly what's going to happen.

I would question the quality of front-line troop a conscripted dissident would make!

 

[W_Heisenberg]

This is pathetic.

I feel sorry for these people. All of these people are going to die....and some of them are already dying before they set foot on the bus.

 

[Chomsky]

Unless the front is viewed as on the verge of collapse, I don't see them arriving for at least three weeks. They have announced a two week "refresher" course and then shipped to Ukraine.

Hopefully Kherson and the west bank will have fallen, and just maybe the physical rail line in the east to Luhansk physically cut. That would really mess up there plans.

Kherson's not falling in three weeks, that I can see.

But getting a large number of men & equipment across the river into Kherson might pose challenges.

 

[Chomsky]

These are greybeards. **** me, this is awful.

That exactly what I saw. These guys were pushin' retirement age.

 

[ASHES]

That exactly what I saw. These guys were pushin' retirement age.

Probably first to go are former enlistees, as they at least already have had some training. Russia doesn't have the capacity to train 300,000 conscripts to even their own standards in as short a time as they are needed. The less trained ones will free up better trained logistics and other support troops for front line duty. Unless they decide to go full meat grinder.

 

[Chomsky]

Probably first to go are former enlistees, as they at least already have had some training. Russia doesn't have the capacity to train 300,000 conscripts to even their own standards in as short a time as they are needed. The less trained ones will free up better trained logistics and other support troops for front line duty. Unless they decide to go full meat grinder.

Alright, that might be a fair assumption.

 

[maxparrish]

Probably first to go are former enlistees, as they at least already have had some training. Russia doesn't have the capacity to train 300,000 conscripts to even their own standards in as short a time as they are needed. The less trained ones will free up better trained logistics and other support troops for front line duty. Unless they decide to go full meat grinder.

Yes, all of those in this tranche have formerly served as conscripts, as I understand it. Enlistee's tend to consider the military a career. So ex professionals below the age of 30 might be few.

 

[kaerin]

 

[maxparrish]

The press is filled with derision over Putin's announcement, most of it rightly so. The bogus referenda will be a farce with low turnout and mythical results. Support for Russia abroad, always thin, is evaporating. His army has deep morale problems, many potential conscripts are dodging, and the volunteers severely lacking.

Moreover, the Russian economy, even with only a 1/3rd of the sanctions being effective, is still headed into deeper waters and a downturn. And Russian war production is lagging behind their losses, even if their inventory of older Soviet tank models and weapons, and some kinds of munitions, remains plentiful.

And what the press should also have noted is that we have seen this scenario before. Russia mobilized in 1914, leaving a shortage of workers for factories and farms. That led to food shortages and major output declines. Prices rose in hyper inflation, and famine became common. Workers had to work 12 to 14 hour days with falling real wages. By 1915 there was a domestic crisis, the Czar having to focus full time on running the war and leaving the running of the government in the hands of his wife. Two years later came a revolution, and the following year the end of the war for Russia.

Yet, I am far from confident and therein is a lesson; if a once popular monarch Czar can survive three years after starting a disastrous war before being deposed, then this isn't exactly good news for Ukraine. Russia is far from starving, inflation is 6 to 8 percent higher but still not prohibitive, and partial mobilization has just begun. Putin's popularity may be taking some hits, but social conditions are far from being a disaster.

Ukraine cannot last three years.

Putin, for all his careful and almost pained decision making, is taking the initiative and escalating again, likely without any prior warning from the west that it will respond in kind. Indeed, by taking the half measure of calling up the reserves he is calculating that not only will this save his invasion, it will fend off the US provision of more game changers such as ATACMS (as well as western planes, paid mercenaries, and tanks).

Putin is counting on angry but reluctant west will once more agonize for weeks or months, during which time the rusty Russian reserves (prior conscripts) will pour into Ukraine and at least halt Ukraine's successes, perhaps save Kherson, and turn the front lines back into a slowly creeping killing zone. Then will come the winter freeze and new options for a 3 or 4 hundred thousand man Russian army in Ukraine will appear.

Therein is a second lesson, one that I have preached from the beginning of this war. He who escalates first and escalates the most, likely wins; he who waits to react likely does not.

So nothing has changed.. Bottom line remains: Russians outnumber Ukrainians. Russians have more weapons than Ukrainians. Russians have the freedom of action to kill every last Ukrainian man, woman, and child in Ukraine through massed bombing and missile attacks, at will. Ukraine is not allowed to touch Russian cities, civilians, or military forces in Russia with western weapons.

There is only one method I know of that will defeat the new hordes of Russians coming into Ukraine. Cut logistics, cut deep, and cut relentlessly. Let no munitions dump, convoy, rail head, or convoy go untouched, and that likely includes those just across the border.

Do that an Ukraine wins. Don't do that and Ukraine likely loses.

We shall see.

 

[JANFU]

 

[JANFU]

 

[EnigmaO01]

How cooperative are Belarusian security forces with Russia? I've heard there is a mix?

 

[EnigmaO01]

One reason I like this forum, it expands my vocabulary.
This is kind of what I was thinking in my earlier post about an off ramp Putin may be considering.
Or this could be his Gotterdamerung.

Germans have single words for concepts we don't have single words for in the English language. My favorite one is Schadenfreude as I have known people that took glee in the misery of others. Typically it was due to jealousy.

 

[Chomsky]

Yes, all of those in this tranche have formerly served as conscripts, as I understand it. Enlistee's tend to consider the military a career. So ex professionals below the age of 30 might be few.

Given the state of private civilian employment opportunities in many parts of Russia, I could definitely see the bolded.

 

[Hamish Howl]

Unless the front is viewed as on the verge of collapse, I don't see them arriving for at least three weeks. They have announced a two week "refresher" course and then shipped to Ukraine.

Hopefully Kherson and the west bank will have fallen, and just maybe the physical rail line in the east to Luhansk physically cut. That would really mess up there plans.

Lambs to the slaughter.

 

[beefheart]

Geez. These guys look closer to retirement age, than prime fighting age!

The brain drain (and laborer drain) of all of these guys leaving the economy is going to affect Russia in a bad way. These guys are just fodder. They are not going to fight hard, there are going to be a lot of people deserting and a hell of a lot of them are going to die.

And who is going to do their jobs in the Russian economy?

Putin can only keep the public quelled for so long before they really rebel.

Add in the fact that Putin is crazier than a shithouse rat at this point...

 

[EnigmaO01]

Given that Putin is expecting to more than double the size of his forces in UKR, I suspect adequate NATO-UKR artillery will be a critical requirement in thwarting the build-up.

Conversely how adequate will the weapons and support be for the Russian draftees and how extensive will their training be? From all I'm hearing this will be cluster*uck for them. I don't side with the Russians, but I do feel sorry for these guys in a way. What a mess thanks to some egocentric ***hole.

OTOH here's hoping it's such a cluster**** that Ukraine with western support can end this soon.

 

[Hamish Howl]

Conversely how adequate will the weapons and support be for the Russian draftees and how extensive will their training be? From all I'm hearing this will be cluster*uck for them. I don't side with the Russians, but I do feel sorry for these guys in a way. What a mess thanks to some egocentric ***hole.

OTOH here's hoping it's such a cluster**** that Ukraine with western support can end this soon.

I feel bad for the draftees.