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[W:#23,579]Ukraine War Thread

EnigmaO01

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Yeah, I have one.
I had what I think was a Chicom rifle my dad kept as a souvenir after he eliminated a VC tax collector that I believe was hounding a village for taxes. I could be wrong on the make as I'm not an expert on guns. I included the history of it in my dad's handwriting, which made it worth more as I think the gun itself was quite common. I sold it for money to a guy in my guard unit to pay for part of my honeymoon. I found out later my dad was upset I sold it, but he didn't say anything to me at the time. Personally didn't do anything for me especially that someone was killed for it.
 

reinaert

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I had what I think was a Chicom rifle my dad kept as a souvenir after he eliminated a VC tax collector that I believe was hounding a village for taxes. I could be wrong on the make as I'm not an expert on guns. I included the history of it in my dad's handwriting, which made it worth more as think the gun itself was quite common. I sold it for money to a guy in my guard unit to pay for part of my honeymoon I found out later my dad was upset I sold it, but he didn't say anything to me at the time. Personally didn't do anything for me especially that someone was killed for it.
To be fair, mine was made outside Beograd.
 

JANFU

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Serious question: do they have the ammo and small arms - nevermind food and kit - to equip 1 million men?
Read they had 13 K tanks in storage. Getting hundreds serviceable could be done quickly in the west. In Russia, no idea. Other kit, light armor/artillery they have a lot in storage
They will be poorly trained, poorly equipped, and morale in the gutter
Putin needs to stabilize lines in Ukraine.

We have yet to see how mass mobilization will impact society, and their reactions.
No doubt they call up will be heavy with ethnic minorities & the poor
In larger centers, if reports about medical professionals are true, large numbers mobilized, services will drop
From what I have read the consensus on mobilization is, some impact, not significant.

Putin cannot afford another massive defeat of his army in Ukraine.

Lastly, Putin is playing for time.
 

JANFU

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Key points - yesterday ISW

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announced “partial mobilization” will not materially affect the course of the war in the coming months.
  • Putin did not explicitly threaten to use nuclear weapons if Ukraine continues counter-offensive operations to liberate occupied areas after Russian annexation.
  • Ukrainian forces likely continued offensive operations around Lyman.
  • Ukrainian forces conducted strikes north and east of Kherson City as part of an operational-level interdiction campaign against Russian logistics, military, and transportation assets in Kherson Oblast.
  • Ukrainian and Russian sources identified three areas of kinetic activity on September 21: northwest of Kherson City, near the Ukrainian bridgehead over the Inhulets River, and south of the Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border around Vysokopillya.
  • Russian federal subjects (regions) are continuing crypto-mobilization efforts regardless of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s declaration of partial mobilization.
  • Russian-appointed occupation administrators are likely increasing law enforcement and filtration measures in occupied areas of Ukraine in preparation for Russia’s sham annexation referenda.
 

JANFU

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Jredbaron96

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So getting them to the war zone will involve great exposure to harm?

Once in combat the lack of armored vehicles and communication gear will make coordination and mobile operations difficult even under good circumstances. Given the response we've seen thus far it's also unlikely these men will be highly motivated.

If the Russians are smart, they'll restrict these new forces to second-echelon tasks, stick them in static, easily defensible positions, and not ask them to do much.
 

maxparrish

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I hope posters will forgive my periodic plunges into pessimism, and cynical detachment. My mood shifts back and forth between that of Gandalf to that of the Steward of Gondor. Upon the discovery of an analyst (a Russian likely now abroad) named Kamil Galeev, I'm seeing a little more optimistic perspective.

Galeev was one of the few analysists that was amazingly accurate on February 27th that Russia's military would flounder, and Ukraine would be much tougher than folks supposed. He accurately explained why that would be so and in other tweets gives a very insightful rundown on why Russia's efforts are undermined by a very vulnerable industrial sector and extreme corruption. He also explained the thinking of Russians, and Putin, and how in some respects the west has it wrong.

His tweets are far too long to summarize here, so at the bottom I'll provide his address. However, some of the nuggets are:

1. The more complex the industry, the more dependent it has been on western, not Chinese, technology, robotics, and machine tools. West Germany supplies 85 percent of the manufacturing tools needed by Russia, including the military factories. The remainder of manufacturing tools are all from the west, or western allies. Russia no longer has a tool industry, and is so tightly integrated with the chain of technology from the west that in the longer run it can't survive.

2. Putin's mobilization is a matter of his survival. His power over the oligarchic crime lords, his henchmen, only exists because he is popular with the people. If he does not demonstrate that power, the henchmen don't need him. If he demonstrates that power, they have to fall in line.

3. The reform of Russian military forces stopped in 2012, when Putins lead reformer was fired for not making the special interests and crime bosses happy. Instead, he demanded quality and accountability while they wanted huge inflated prices and needless projects to inflate their wealth. Shoginu (sp?) was put in charge, repealed all the checks and requirements, and now we see the results.

Finally, he does not think Russia will win.

Given that he was so accurate in February, his prophetic and informed understanding of Russia cannot be ignored.

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani
 

Schrott

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Read they had 13 K tanks in storage. Getting hundreds serviceable could be done quickly in the west. In Russia, no idea. Other kit, light armor/artillery they have a lot in storage
They will be poorly trained, poorly equipped, and morale in the gutter
Putin needs to stabilize lines in Ukraine.

We have yet to see how mass mobilization will impact society, and their reactions.
No doubt they call up will be heavy with ethnic minorities & the poor
In larger centers, if reports about medical professionals are true, large numbers mobilized, services will drop
From what I have read the consensus on mobilization is, some impact, not significant.

Putin cannot afford another massive defeat of his army in Ukraine.

Lastly, Putin is playing for time.
But that is really very old hardware, obsolete, the ammo so old, most will not work. Russia had to buy 1 million rounds for its arty from NK. They just lost over 100 of its best frontline tanks in Kharkiv. Many just abandoned, resupply for the Ukraine, thousands of tons of ammo, which the Ukraine needed. The same naturally will happen in Kherson, just a matter of time.
With what will those soldiers fight?

It is hard for me to understand all those tactical blunders, like the Kherson Oblast, moving all those soldiers from the NE and their equipment into a position where they could easily be trapped. That was predictable, them getting trapped.

Russia is running this with a mixture of WWI and WWII, not like a modern war. Its rather amazing
 

Quag

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Once in combat the lack of armored vehicles and communication gear will make coordination and mobile operations difficult even under good circumstances. Given the response we've seen thus far it's also unlikely these men will be highly motivated.

If the Russians are smart, they'll restrict these new forces to second-echelon tasks, stick them in static, easily defensible positions, and not ask them to do much.
If Putin was smart he wouldn't have invaded
 

maxparrish

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Read they had 13 K tanks in storage. Getting hundreds serviceable could be done quickly in the west. In Russia, no idea. Other kit, light armor/artillery they have a lot in storage
They will be poorly trained, poorly equipped, and morale in the gutter
Putin needs to stabilize lines in Ukraine.

We have yet to see how mass mobilization will impact society, and their reactions.
No doubt they call up will be heavy with ethnic minorities & the poor
In larger centers, if reports about medical professionals are true, large numbers mobilized, services will drop
From what I have read the consensus on mobilization is, some impact, not significant.

Putin cannot afford another massive defeat of his army in Ukraine.

Lastly, Putin is playing for time.

There are plenty of reasons to suspect this effort will flounder, although an equal number of reasons to fear it might not.

The silver lining to this development is that this will likely be the last mobilization tolerated by the Russian public. If 300,000 are sent to the front, and there are 150,000 dead and wounded in nine months, there is no chance that Putin will have another bite at the apple.

Moreover, there has been a strong tendency for Russians to throw in troops as they arrive, rather than build units until a strong offensive force is constructed. When that has happened, Ukrainians have exacted very heavy costs on advancing Russians.

Finally, this will have an impact on pubic services, factory work, etc. The IT guy probably won't be touched, but the folks that drive the tractors or provide public power and transport will be gone.
 

JANFU

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Sven Karma

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Lol, the idea of unilateral referendums that's so sweet to Putin majorly anathema to Turkey (Kurds) and obvs China and India. Oops.
 

Schrott

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Once in combat the lack of armored vehicles and communication gear will make coordination and mobile operations difficult even under good circumstances. Given the response we've seen thus far it's also unlikely these men will be highly motivated.

If the Russians are smart, they'll restrict these new forces to second-echelon tasks, stick them in static, easily defensible positions, and not ask them to do much.
Those guys will go into the meat grinder and supplement the depleted units without equipment, they are cattle.
 

ChickenTendies

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I hope posters will forgive my periodic plunges into pessimism, and cynical detachment. My mood shifts back and forth between that of Gandalf to that of the Steward of Gondor. Upon the discovery of an analyst (a Russian likely now abroad) named Kamil Galeev, I'm seeing a little more optimistic perspective.

Galeev was one of the few analysists that was amazingly accurate on February 27th that Russia's military would flounder, and Ukraine would be much tougher than folks supposed. He accurately explained why that would be so and in other tweets gives a very insightful rundown on why Russia's efforts are undermined by a very vulnerable industrial sector and extreme corruption. He also explained the thinking of Russians, and Putin, and how in some respects the west has it wrong.

His tweets are far too long to summarize here, so at the bottom I'll provide his address. However, some of the nuggets are:

1. The more complex the industry, the more dependent it has been on western, not Chinese, technology, robotics, and machine tools. West Germany supplies 85 percent of the manufacturing tools needed by Russia, including the military factories. The remainder of manufacturing tools are all from the west, or western allies. Russia no longer has a tool industry, and is so tightly integrated with the chain of technology from the west that in the longer run it can't survive.

2. Putin's mobilization is a matter of his survival. His power over the oligarchic crime lords, his henchmen, only exists because he is popular with the people. If he does not demonstrate that power, the henchmen don't need him. If he demonstrates that power, they have to fall in line.

3. The reform of Russian military forces stopped in 2012, when Putins lead reformer was fired for not making the special interests and crime bosses happy. Instead, he demanded quality and accountability while they wanted huge inflated prices and needless projects to inflate their wealth. Shoginu (sp?) was put in charge, repealed all the checks and requirements, and now we see the results.

Finally, he does not think Russia will win.

Given that he was so accurate in February, his prophetic and informed understanding of Russia cannot be ignored.

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani
I do recall every single so-called armchair general and "analyst" were busy publishing threads about how Russia was going to lose a couple days after the invasion started. What makes him so special?
 

Sven Karma

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@reinaert
Good read on mobilization
In a somewhat odd but technically true statement, Belarussian Minister of Foreign Affairs Vladimir Makei issued a statement online that “Belarus has never been in favor of war” and that “Not a single [Belarussian] soldier, not a single piece of equipment was sent to Ukraine.” While partially accurate, the statement omits that Belarussian President Aleksandr Lukashenko has been a staunch ally of Vladimir Putin and supportive of the war in Ukraine by allowing Russia to stage weapons and personnel within its borders before and during the invasion.

Oh noes, not Belarussia subtly edging towards the side of the stage!
 

maxparrish

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I do recall every single so-called armchair general and "analyst" were busy publishing threads about how Russia is going to lose a couple days after the invasion started. What makes him so special?

Unlike every arm chair general, he was spot on in his predictions. As a researcher and think tank member, and a Russian in Russia till recently, he was uncannily accurate because he understood culture, production, and social insights that most did not.
 

JANFU

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maxparrish

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In a somewhat odd but technically true statement, Belarussian Minister of Foreign Affairs Vladimir Makei issued a statement online that “Belarus has never been in favor of war” and that “Not a single [Belarussian] soldier, not a single piece of equipment was sent to Ukraine.” While partially accurate, the statement omits that Belarussian President Aleksandr Lukashenko has been a staunch ally of Vladimir Putin and supportive of the war in Ukraine by allowing Russia to stage weapons and personnel within its borders before and during the invasion.

Oh noes, not Belarussia subtly edging towards the side of the stage!

A nation lead by Sgt. Shultz's, "I know nothing"....
 

Sven Karma

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A nation lead by Sgt. Shultz's, "I know nothing"....
Well I guess it's better than a "Yay, Pooty, I already got my palsied hand on the button that launches Belarussia's three rusty leftover nuclear armaments!"
 

maxparrish

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What should be required for every Russian conscript, a 3 minute introduction what is going to happen to them in Putin and his oligarch's war (notice that those without guns had to take them from dead comrades):

 
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