[W:#23,579]Ukraine War Thread (6 Viewers)

[armycowboy]

Were I a Ukrainian GO, I would consolidate my forces, at this point, and invite the Russians to attack again. Then when their attack fell apart, I would counter attack and consolidate again. One step at a time. Then again, I was a never a General Officer, so there's that.

 

[Chomsky]

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Russians are slow, but not stupid. They had to straighten out their poor use of EW and horrible signals security, their lack of drone experience, there dated doctrine. It looks like they have (and the new Iranian drones are especially worrisome).

They are well dug in, well protected by concrete supplemented defensive works, largely engaged in static defensive warfare. There is a lot of firepower packed into that strip of land. Unlike the north, they have no need to be masters of maneuver. Their tanks are no longer exposed to Javlins, their topsides protected by those bunkers.

My view is that only a more prolonged action to drain or impede their logistics will dislodge them. If Ukraine were a western army, air delivered missiles would render those bunkers to dust. Cruise missiles would pound deep into their GLOC's ... you would see what we saw in the two gulf wars.

Still they are making incremental progress... small costly steps that may yet succeed in the next several weeks. Otherwise they should wind it down and focus on the many weaker areas of the Russian front.

Well, they've got RU in a good place. It seems to me they need to keep some moderate pressure, keep their supply lines cut, and starve & freeze them out over the winter.

Obviously, they need to rain artillery down on them - rather than UKR warm bodies.

 

[Chomsky]

Were I a Ukrainian GO, I would consolidate my forces, at this point, and invite the Russians to attack again. Then when their attack fell apart, I would counter attack and consolidate again. One step at a time. Then again, I was a never a General Officer, so there's that.

How about starving them out in Kherson over the winter?

RU is trapped with no supply lines to speak, and no where to move, with no way to get equipment or re-enforcements.

It would seem regular shelling with moderate frontal pressure could wear them down, no?

 

[armycowboy]

"Brigades" sounds like an large exaggeration but it depends on what size they consider a brigade. If they were 1,000 men each, it is plausible 3 were demolished given how fierce it was.

In an American Army Brigade (a Brigade Combat Team) there are about 4500 Soldiers, depending on the unit. No idea what a Ukrainian Brigade Combat Team consists of.

 

[armycowboy]

How about starving them out in Kherson over the winter?

RU is trapped with no supply lines to speak, and no where to move, with no way to get equipment or re-enforcements.

It would seem regular shelling with moderate frontal pressure could wear them down, no?

That would work, had the Russians no supply lines. I believe they do, the Ukrainians have no ability to sever their supply lines.

 

[Chomsky]

That would work, had the Russians no supply lines. I believe they do, the Ukrainians have no ability to sever their supply lines.

You believe they're getting stuff over the river? In substantial manner?

 

[Slaughterhouse]

Iraq's M1A1s suffered serious losses against ISIS. And consider who we've been fighting...

You've been fighting Ukraine.

 

[armycowboy]

You believe they're getting stuff over the river? In substantial manner?

No, as I stated earlier in this thread, the Russian moral should be close to zero. The lower enlisted have nothing to fight for, as they're all conscripts. I couldn't imagine being and NCO in the Russian Army (as limited as the authority would be) trying to raise troop moral.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainians have their homelands and families to fight for. I actually wanted to go over and fight for the Ukraine, until my wife reminded me I'm old (57, not too old to fight, I thought) and my passport had expired.

I have some guys I used to work with over there (yeah, I was there NCOIC) in SOC. I think they'll do OK.

 

[Chomsky]

No, as I stated earlier in this thread, the Russian moral should be close to zero. The lower enlisted have nothing to fight for, as they're all conscripts. I couldn't imagine being and NCO in the Russian Army (as limited as the authority would be) trying to raise troop moral.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainians have their homelands and families to fight for. I actually wanted to go over and fight for the Ukraine, until my wife reminded me I'm old (57, not too old to fight, I thought) and my passport had expired.

Alright buddy, fair enough. Thanks for sharing your insight.

I suspect your wife will sleep a lot better knowing you're on this side of the pond. I'm sure you've put yourself in the possibility of harm's way enough for one lifetime. No need to tempt fate, would be my thought. Have a good one!

 

[armycowboy]

Alright buddy, fair enough. Thanks for sharing your insight.

I suspect your wife will sleep a lot better knowing you're on this side of the pond. I'm sure you've put yourself in the possibility of harm's way enough for one lifetime. No need to tempt fate, would be my thought. Have a good one!

LOL, apricate that brother, spent 3 1/2 years fighting in Iraq and 2 years fighting in Afghanistan. Have two Bronze Stars, three Combat Action Badges, and three Meritorious Service Medals. Time to pass the torch and spend my life with my beautiful wife

 

[maxparrish]

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Well, they've got RU in a good place. It seems to me they need to keep some moderate pressure, keep their supply lines cut, and starve & freeze them out over the winter.

Obviously, they need to rain artillery down on them - rather than UKR warm bodies.

Yes, Kherson will fall. No need to take such heavy casualties when they can be strangled.

 

[EnigmaO01]

Geez, you're doing it wrong.

If you're wrong about something, you're supposed to dig in your heels and screech like a baboon.

 

[Jredbaron96]

This is where you are wrong, a dedicated force will always perform better, but even the most ill trained and unmotivated can effectively use urban combat,

No they can't. See Baghdad.

Iraq is not what I call major urban combat,

It doesn't matter what you want to call it, it was urban fighting.

You're just arguing against history at this point.

 

[Jredbaron96]

This is also the reason no one is ever successful invading russia, because terrain is far more formidable than their army, and russias entire terrain save a few spots near ukraine and belarus absolutely favors the defender.

Russian terrain does not favor the defender. Most of western Russia sips atop the Eurasian steppe without any major geographic barriers until you hit the Volga and the Urals. That's why invasions of Russia often penetrate so deeply.

 

[EnigmaO01]

At 64 tons per M1, it's a problem. I'd stick with what's working right now, if I were them.

I would think tanks just make great targets. I sure wouldn't one to be in one. Seems to me the game changers are PGM's.

 

[EnigmaO01]

Were I a Ukrainian GO, I would consolidate my forces, at this point, and invite the Russians to attack again. Then when their attack fell apart, I would counter attack and consolidate again. One step at a time. Then again, I was a never a General Officer, so there's that.

Seems to they are getting or have received very good advice on what to do as far as strategy on the battlefield and it shows. It's been revealed the U.S. is sharing intelligence and satellite photos to pinpoint targets and see what the Russians are doing on the ground. It's no coincidence the UAF's have been using NATO tactics that capitalize on Russian weaknesses.

 

[EnigmaO01]

How about starving them out in Kherson over the winter?

RU is trapped with no supply lines to speak, and no where to move, with no way to get equipment or re-enforcements.

It would seem regular shelling with moderate frontal pressure could wear them down, no?

Are there Ukrainian civilians there that would also starve? The occupying Russians would probably steal their food supplies so the civilians would probably perish first.

 

[JANFU]

Thank you for tagging me, but I haven't been following the war in the Ukraine as closely as many others.

I will offer a few general points, if you'll allow me. One of the biggest problems I've noticed through the years from being an observer during tactical evaluations in Europe, is the lack of a strong NCO corps in European Armies. They're all Officer driven and NCOs have very little authority, vs the American Army. That means orders take more time to be enforced on the battlefield, which can lead to potential gains never realized. More over, during intense combat, as an NCO, especially a Senior NCO, I could take charge and lead troops to seize and important initiative, without having to wait for orders from above. European Armies can't do this. Their NCOs wait back on their heels until their officers issue orders. This often leads to missed opportunities. There are a lot of former American Special Operation Soldiers in the Ukraine (we were all NCOs in SOC) so that may give an advantage to the Ukraine.

Secondly, there's the issue of moral, which can't be overstated in warfare. Yeah, every Soldier is trying to stay alive, but how much risk he's willing to take to accomplish the mission comes down to training and moral. I was an observer during tactical evaluations of both Dutch and Danish forces, during my time in Europe, and most of the lower enlisted Soldiers (including some of the junior NCOs) just didn't give a shit. They were conscripts who were waiting their enlistments out and weren't particularly well paid, well fed or cared for. Take this over to the Ukraine war, and assuming the training is similar between the Russian and Ukrainian Soldiers, the Ukraine holds a huge moral superiority. Why? Because they're defending their homeland and their families. They simply have more to fight for than their Russian counterparts.

Finally, there's the tactics of offense vs defense in warfare. If the two sides are fairly evenly matched (and they seem to be, with Russia having a small advantage) it's much less costly in terms of blood and treasure, to play defense than it is to play offense. Russia started out on the offensive and may have burned itself out in terms of men, equipment and moral. They cost themselves the initiative and now the Ukrainians, who have, for the most part held most of their ground, are counter attacking.

To wind this up, I spent over 20 years in the Army and I'd be more comfortable fighting as a Ukrainian right now than a Russian.

Thank you

 

[Chomsky]

LOL, apricate that brother, spent 3 1/2 years fighting in Iraq and 2 years fighting in Afghanistan. Have two Bronze Stars, three Combat Action Badges, and three Meritorious Service Medals. Time to pass the torch and spend my life with my beautiful wife

Not at all!

 

[Chomsky]

Are there Ukrainian civilians there that would also starve? The occupying Russians would probably steal their food supplies so the civilians would probably perish first.

I would hope most have fled, heeding Kyiv's warnings during the long build-up.

But by "starve-out", I'm not speaking exclusively of food. I was speaking in terms of military resources.

 

[JANFU]

 

[PoS]

Interesting update from UKMOD:



It's clear that the Russian Navy has been effectively been neutralized in the Black Sea. This could mean that Crimea could be retaken by Ukraine in the near future. The Russians simply do not have the manpower to contest the region anymore.

 

[Chomsky]

There are two predominate hypothesis floating around the Tweet's commenting thread:

1] Wagner is trying to prove themselves to Putin.
2] There's a washing machine factory there!

 

[JANFU]

 

[JANFU]

There are two predominate hypothesis floating around the Tweet's commenting thread:

1] Wagner is trying to prove themselves to Putin.
2] There's a washing machine factory there!

Both are correct
Russians retreated and left their beloved washers behind