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[W:125]When Will China Move To Capture Taiwan?

rhinefire

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I see it coming with four years max. Their Navy is now the best in the world I'm told and they will never accept Taiwan as anything other than part of China.
 

swing_voter

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Never.

Unless China gets humiliated by the Taiwan situation somehow.
 

Dayton3

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I see it coming with four years max. Their Navy is now the best in the world I'm told and they will never accept Taiwan as anything other than part of China.
The Chinese Navy isn't even as strong as the U.S. 7th Fleet. Much less the best in the world.
 

SayMyName

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The PLA will not even attempt an invasion of Taiwan as long as the communist government is able to maintain control over them. Should the United States of America and other nations in the region remain committed to the defense of Taiwan, the CCP will not order an attack. For one reason being, their navy is not the most powerful. It is simply more numerous. Nearly 100 ships of the PLA-N are patrol boats similar to the PT boats the US used in World War II. Their primary function being to harrass and bully fishing vessels along the coasts of neighboring countries around the South China Sea. You can always spot them, as they appear as if a flotilla from the old tv show, "McHale's Navy." Underwear hanging around the deck, smoking, drinking, playing Mahjong while drunk, shirtless, and half naked. What remains for a real fight is no match for even one American fleet, and currently we have two in the area. Then, there is Taiwan. Anyone in the know can tell you their military would put up one horrendous fight, one that, even if the numbers from the mainland prevailed, the CCP leadership and nation would be rocked to the core. Following this, the world would condemn the mainland Han communist regime for its total destruction of the island nation, which is exactly what it would take to make Taiwan submit.
 

Court Jester

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The Chinese Navy isn't even as strong as the U.S. 7th Fleet. Much less the best in the world.
Good point. In fact, the Japanese Maritime Naval Defense force is probably way more capable than the Chinese Navy. The Japanese attack submarines are specifically for the purpose of attacking ocean targets as opposed to the U.S. and China's attack subs also used for land based targets. Once you combine the naval power of the Japanese, the U.S.... and then the Taiwanese navy and maybe depending on what happens the Austriaians or even India-----and China would be fooked.... well, unless Russia throws in with them, and that would never be something Russia would want to do if the U.S. Navy is in the fight too.
 

Dayton3

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Good point. In fact, the Japanese Maritime Naval Defense force is probably way more capable than the Chinese Navy. The Japanese attack submarines are specifically for the purpose of attacking ocean targets as opposed to the U.S. and China's attack subs also used for land based targets. Once you combine the naval power of the Japanese, the U.S.... and then the Taiwanese navy and maybe depending on what happens the Austriaians or even India-----and China would be fooked.... well, unless Russia throws in with them, and that would never be something Russia would want to do if the U.S. Navy is in the fight too.
The Russians would never throw in and fight at the behest of the Chinese. The most likely scenario would be the Russians taking advantage of American distraction in the Pacific with making an attempt to grab the Baltic states.
 

Cameron

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I feel like debating who has the best navy is like debating who has the best canons or the sharpest swords.
 

Roadvirus

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If Biden wins the election, they'll start to move in after he's sworn in. He's in their hip pocket and he's a ***** who'll never stand up to them.
 

RetiredUSN

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I see it coming with four years max. Their Navy is now the best in the world I'm told and they will never accept Taiwan as anything other than part of China.
The US Navy does have a habit of crashing into things and burning their ships to the waterline now days.

It's leadership is too busy juggling and implementing useless policies that are being fed to them from the Pentagon, and Squadron Commanders. The Navy doesn't even run a OPPE like it used to when the the ships each went through a week of pure hell with engineering plant drills and every fire fighting scenario imaginable. (Too stressful they say)

A Lt. Commander recently ended a "Mass Conflag" drill onboard a Norfolk based ship because two females in repair locker 5 started bawling like little babies because they were stressed out? The ****ing hose team stood around waiting down in the engine room for the female Locker Leader and female "On Scene Leader" to send down replacements when the Self-Contained Breathing Apparatus cylinders were running low. They were sent to sick bay?

WTF?

This is the new Navy.
 

skeptic llc

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The most likely scenario would be the Russians taking advantage of American distraction in the Pacific with making an attempt to grab the Baltic states.
Why do they need a distraction? Captain bone spurs won't stop them.
 

Dayton3

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Why do they need a distraction? Captain bone spurs won't stop them.
1) One way or the other President Trump won't be in office indefinitely.
2) The Baltics are members of NATO. An attack on them would be the same as attacking the United States.
 

jbi

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It won't happen for a good 10 years IMO.

China is still building it's navy/airforce and will attempt every other option for unification before resorting to military force.

It really comes down to whether or not other countries will want to get involved.

The USA will play a decisive role as it would come down to nuclear brinkmanship.

Without the USA's involvement, Taiwan would probably suffer a drawn out blockade and may surrender peacefully or will attempt a defence... ultimately being worn down and overrun.
 

Dayton3

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It won't happen for a good 10 years IMO.

China is still building it's navy/airforce and will attempt every other option for unification before resorting to military force.

It really comes down to whether or not other countries will want to get involved.

The USA will play a decisive role as it would come down to nuclear brinkmanship.

Without the USA's involvement, Taiwan would probably suffer a drawn out blockade and may surrender peacefully or will attempt a defence... ultimately being worn down and overrun.
Taiwan could always threaten to breach Three Gorges Dam or the dikes on the Yellow River if China didn't back down. Either would cost the Chinese hundreds of thousands and probably millions of lives not to mention the economic damage.
 

joko104

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The Chinese Navy isn't even as strong as the U.S. 7th Fleet. Much less the best in the world.
Do you really believe we would go to war with the Chinese Navy in general, not counting this would be directly off the Chinese mainland? Why would we do that? Would you go to war with China over Taiwan?
 
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Casper

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I see it coming with four years max. Their Navy is now the best in the world I'm told and they will never accept Taiwan as anything other than part of China.
In four years, probably. No the US has the best navy
 

jbi

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Taiwan could always threaten to breach Three Gorges Dam or the dikes on the Yellow River if China didn't back down. Either would cost the Chinese hundreds of thousands and probably millions of lives not to mention the economic damage.
It would be difficult for Taiwan to reach it.

As far as I am aware it sits around 1500km from Taiwan which only has cruise missiles with a 600km range. It is doubtful these cruise missiles would breach the dam even if they could reach it.

Taiwans air force would not be able to reach it either due to the heavy SAM concentration and the fact it's aircraft are hugely outnumbered and outclassed.
 
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Dayton3

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It would be difficult for Taiwan to reach it.

As far as I am aware it sits around 1500km from Taiwan which only has cruise missiles with a 600km range. It is doubtful these cruise missiles would breach the damn even if they could reach it, and would require something with a heavier warhead.

Taiwans air force would not be able to reach it either due to the heavy SAM concentration and the fact it's aircraft are hugely outnumbered and outclassed.
I believe Taiwan has aircraft that can reach the dam by flying a one way mission. Avoid SAMs and interceptors by flying at very low level on the run in to target. A few 2,000 lb. bombs into the upstream face of the dam programmed to roll down the face of the dam until they are well under water before detonating.

The water pressure does the rest.
 

Helix

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doing that would be a ****up. they want communism with the best of capitalism at the same time, and invading Taiwan would result in shifts in manufacturing to other countries. of course, one has to take into account that countries do dumb ass things like electing idiotic clowns.
 

jbi

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I believe Taiwan has aircraft that can reach the dam by flying a one way mission. Avoid SAMs and interceptors by flying at very low level on the run in to target. A few 2,000 lb. bombs into the upstream face of the dam programmed to roll down the face of the dam until they are well under water before detonating.

The water pressure does the rest.
They would be picked up by Chinese radar long before they even reach the mainland. Fantasy stuff i'm afraid.

The only way Taiwan could do it would be to develop/buy ballistic missiles with heavy bunker busting busting warheads and send a large swarm of them.

Gravity dam's are notoriously hard to breach, so would probably require several direct hits to be effective.

.
 
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Tangmo

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The chief CCP DictatorTyrant Xi Jinping has gone silent lately on his crackpot notions to invade Taiwan given the Taipei government recently rolled out its previously shrouded combined cycle propulsion Yun Feng missile capable of hitting the vast coastal area of the CCP-PRC from Beijing and Shanghai to the former Canton region of Guangzhou and Shenzhen at the South China Sea. Literally several hundred of millions of unknowing mainland Chinese would be affected by the undisclosed number of the Yun Feng surface to surface missiles Taiwan has been home producing for several years, although the Yun Feng closely resembles the USA Tomahawk missile. :cool:

What's believed in Washington to be a large scale deployment of the Yun Feng started in March, meaning the Taiwan armed forces can execute in depth strategic strikes against the mainland. This is reported reliably by Andrei Chang, editor-in-chief of the Canada Kanwa Defense Review.

Chang said the cruise missile with a strike distance of between 1,000 and 1,500km, would be capable of making precision strikes targeting key mainland cities in a vast range from Shanghai in the North to points south such as the former Canton area of Guangzhou and Shenzhen, the latter being adjacent to Hong Kong, if Beijing were to attempt an invasion assault against Taiwan.

Chang revealed that based on the missile's range all nuclear power plant reactors, state strategic oil reserve facilities near the Zhoushan metro areas in eastern China’s Zhejiang province and the Beijing-Kowloon Railway and other high-speed railways and tunnels would be goners, although the word Chang uses is "targeted." This would of course impede or halt PLA movements to cross the Taiwan Strait.




Taiwan-China War: Taiwan’s ‘Yun Feng’ Missile Threatens To Devastate Beijing & Shanghai

July 18, 2020

Even though many experts believe that the Republic of China [Taiwan] with US support would fall quickly in the face of a Chinese onslaught, the reality is far from it. At Taiwan’s disposal is a growing arsenal of long-range, supersonic cruise missiles, including the deadly Yun Feng missile. The Yun Feng was developed by the National Chung-Shan Institute of Science and Technology and can travel as far as a thousand miles with a 500-pound warhead, thus enabling it to bomb Shanghai and Beijing. The Yun Feng is supersonic thanks to its combined-cycle propulsion. A solid rocket booster accelerates the missile to its cruise speed, at which point an air-fed ramjet takes over. In fielding Yun Feng missiles, Taiwan conveys to Beijing that a war would not be confined to the island and surrounding waters,” explained the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C. The Yun Feng would allow Taiwan to inflict costs on China, both by striking People’s Liberation Army targets and by bringing the war to mainland China. With this in mind, Beijing is likely to think twice before attacking Taiwan, the experts noted.


The Hsiung Feng IIE missile. Photo: YouTube

Before Chinese advancement in military technology, Taiwan matched China using the plane for plane and ship for ship strategy. But, China’s rise as a military superpower has forced Taiwan to alter its strategy to deter China. After Taiwan realised it cannot match China using the old strategy i.e. machine for a machine, it was quick to alter its policy. The Taiwanese military now plans to let the Chinese get close—then lob thousands of missiles at them. Taiwan’s objectives are to deter and delay potential invasion, according to the Washington, D.C.-based Nuclear Threat Initiative.







Satellite images show several of Taiwan’s Hsiung Feng IIE missiles among an undisclosed number of the missiles 50km west of Taipei at Taoyuan Army base which also has the Army NCO Academy whose 1000 cadets are fully trained, armed and prepared to contribute in the 3rd front -- shoreline defense fortifications -- of Taiwan. Photo: Kanwa Defense Review Canada.
 

jbi

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They better get cracking building them. So far they've put in an order for 20.

The term "flea on an elephants ass" comes to mind.
 

bongsaway

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I see it coming with four years max. Their Navy is now the best in the world I'm told and they will never accept Taiwan as anything other than part of China.
I would suggest a change in information sources.
 
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