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[W:#101]Climate Change Rapidly Intensified Hurricane Ian Before Landfall

longview

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No, they weren't hyped, but they also did not expect it to spin and come ashore a second time.
We will see today, if the maximum sustained winds were really 155 mph, there will be a lot of missing building and houses between
Fort Myers and Tampa. Physics tells us there is four times more energy in a 155 mph wind than in a 78 mph wind.
 

ClaraD

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We will see today, if the maximum sustained winds were really 155 mph, there will be a lot of missing building and houses between
Fort Myers and Tampa. Physics tells us there is four times more energy in a 155 mph wind than in a 78 mph wind.
Some of the news sources I have seen show massive damage. Concrete homes withstand wind better than wood
 

ClaraD

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Concrete block construction puts eight inches of pure strength between you and the elements. It can withstand winds up to 250 miles per hour and provide extra security during hurricanes, tornadoes and even earthquakes.
 

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Some of the news sources I have seen show massive damage. Concrete homes withstand wind better than wood
There are certainty better construction choices, but people tend to buy what they can afford.
I hope Ian was an 80 mph storm as the weather station in Ft Myers showed, and not the 155 mph storm being reported.
The difference in damage and lives lost would be very large.
As news crews get out today we will see what kind of storm it was.
 

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Here's an initial report:

More than 2.5 Florida million homes and business were without power early Thursday.

Hundreds were feared dead Thursday and thousands of Floridians desperately sought rescue as historically powerful Hurricane Ian hammered the state with heavy rain and strong winds, one of the strongest storms in U.S. history.

"While I don't have confirmed numbers, I definitely know the fatalities are in the hundreds," Lee County Sheriff Carmine Marceno said on ABC-TV's "Good Morning America." "There are thousands of people that are waiting to be rescued."

The hurricane’s center made landfall as a Category 4 monster Wednesday afternoon near Cayo Costa, a barrier island just west of heavily populated Fort Myers in Lee County.

Ian had weakened to a tropical storm but was forecast to continue roaring across the state most of the day before heading out into the Atlantic.The storm flooded entire communities, leaving residents stranded in their homes with battering 150-mph maximum sustained winds – just 7 mph shy of a Category 5 hurricane, the strongest on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane scale.

'Hundreds' feared dead, sheriff says; 2.5M without power as Tropical Storm Ian continues to wallop Florida: Live updates


150 mph winds doesn't sound like the forecast was 'blown' or 'over-hyped.'
 

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Here's an initial report:



'Hundreds' feared dead, sheriff says; 2.5M without power as Tropical Storm Ian continues to wallop Florida: Live updates


150 mph winds doesn't sound like the forecast was 'blown' or 'over-hyped.'
Well if the winds were closer to what was actually recorded by official weather stations, at under 75 mph,
then a lot more people survived and the forecast was over hyped.
There is a chance that we have yet to see a corridor of destruction, but so far we are not seeing that.
Fort Myers, FL - Station ID: 8725520
1664457315936.png
 

Peacenik

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Well if the winds were closer to what was actually recorded by official weather stations, at under 75 mph,
then a lot more people survived and the forecast was over hyped.
There is a chance that we have yet to see a corridor of destruction, but so far we are not seeing that.
Fort Myers, FL - Station ID: 8725520
View attachment 67415543
I hope that's the case, but it doesn't look very good when the Lee County Sherriff says there are confirmed deaths in the hundreds and that thousands of people are still waiting to be rescued. Ft Myers did not get the center of the storm, so probably did not get the highest surge. Also, it should be noted that the SE quadrant of the storm, which is the part that Ft Myers experienced, did not appear to contain the strongest rainstorms on radar. Most of that was to the north of the eye.
 

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I hope that's the case, but it doesn't look very good when the Lee County Sherriff says there are confirmed deaths in the hundreds and that thousands of people are still waiting to be rescued. Ft Myers did not get the center of the storm, so probably did not get the highest surge. Also, it should be noted that the SE quadrant of the storm, which is the part that Ft Myers experienced, did not appear to contain the strongest rainstorms on radar. Most of that was to the north of the eye.
Sorry feared dead are not confirmed deaths, let's hope they are not.
Florida is not New Orleans, so while the water came up with the storm surge, it goes back down again after the storm passes.
When the actual reports start coming in we will see. So far I am seeing reporters talking about car ports blown away,
which can happen in about 60 mph winds.
 

Peacenik

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Sorry feared dead are not confirmed deaths, let's hope they are not.
Florida is not New Orleans, so while the water came up with the storm surge, it goes back down again after the storm passes.
When the actual reports start coming in we will see. So far I am seeing reporters talking about car ports blown away,
which can happen in about 60 mph winds.
The Lee County Sherriff used the word 'confirmed.'
 

Galactic Spin

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Well if the winds were closer to what was actually recorded by official weather stations, at under 75 mph,
then a lot more people survived and the forecast was over hyped.
There is a chance that we have yet to see a corridor of destruction, but so far we are not seeing that.
Fort Myers, FL - Station ID: 8725520
View attachment 67415543
It wasn't a forecast. It was a masurement. Why are you on this bizarre mission that requires dishonesty? Yiu have a personal problem with climate science. It is handicapping your mind.
 

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I would take an exception on the 'more frequent every year.' Overall there do seem to be more, some years less, some years more, increasing over time. The biggest difference is they are getting stronger and can undergo this 'rapid intensification.'

Yes, liker Katrina made landfall on August 29. But I was just saying tropical storms are more frequent in recent years than they had been before humans started destroying the ozone layer.
 

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Nope. I moved to Florida in December 2011. But I read it was one of the worst hurricanes to hit Florida.
It was...part of the reason was the size and path. I wasn't in Florida for it, but I was in South Carolina so I was very aware of the really horrible results
 

Galactic Spin

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Horrible destruction at Fort Myers:

 

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I do not agree the forecast 'was blown.' There are reports of very serious damage and lives lost.

Part of the fourth floor roof from the intensive care unit at HCA Florida Fawcett Hospital in Port Charlotte was blown off, Dr. Birgit Bodine, who works there, told the Associated Press. A lower level emergency room also experienced storm surge flooding.

Ian made landfall near Cayo Costa, Florida, as a catastrophic Category 4 storm, with its 150 mph winds snapping apart trees, ripping homes to shreds and tearing down power lines across the coastline.

"This is by far the worst storm I have ever witnessed," Fort Myers Mayor Kevin Anderson said during a call into the Today show on Thursday. "Watching the water rise from my condo in the heart of downtown, watching it rise and flood out all the stores on the first floor, it was heartbreaking."

Hurricane Ian Rips Roof Off Florida Hospital, Flooding ICU Where Patients Had to Be Moved to Other Floors

 

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Climate Change Rapidly Intensified Hurricane Ian Before Landfall​


Here's what the IPCC says:

IPCC AR5 Chapter 14 Page 1220
Cyclones
Based on process understanding and agreement in 21st century projections,
it is likely that the global frequency of occurrence of tropical cyclones will either
decrease or remain essentially unchanged, concurrent with a likely increase in
both global mean tropical cyclone maximum wind speed and precipitation rates.
The future influence of climate change on tropical cyclones is likely to vary by
region, but the specific characteristics of the changes are not yet well quantified
and there is low confidence in region-specific projections of frequency and intensity.
_______________________________________________________________________________________


[T]he specific characteristics of the changes are not yet well quantified and there
is low confidence in region-specific projections of frequency and intensity.

The IPCC assessment reports are like the Bible, you can find what you want
support your argument.

Me? I'd say after reading through the Tropical Cyclone sections of Chapter 14
and IPCC AR5 Chapter 2 2.6.3 Tropical Storms the IPCC simply doesn't know,
and neither do you.
 

Peacenik

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The Sanibel bridge is the only connection to Sanibel Island, where people live:

In Sanibel, meanwhile, Hurricane Ian wiped out a 50-foot section of the causeway bridge connecting the island to mainland Florida, DeSantis noted, adding “structural rebuilds,” will be necessary to fix the damages.

Hurricane Ian: These Are The Florida Areas Hardest Hit By The Category 4 Storm


They are going to be using boats or a ferry to get to Sanibel until further notice. That is going to have to be set up. There currently is no ferry.
 

Galactic Spin

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Climate Change Rapidly Intensified Hurricane Ian Before Landfall​


Here's what the IPCC says:

IPCC AR5 Chapter 14 Page 1220
Cyclones
Based on process understanding and agreement in 21st century projections,
it is likely that the global frequency of occurrence of tropical cyclones will either
decrease or remain essentially unchanged, concurrent with a likely increase in
both global mean tropical cyclone maximum wind speed and precipitation rates.
The future influence of climate change on tropical cyclones is likely to vary by
region, but the specific characteristics of the changes are not yet well quantified
and there is low confidence in region-specific projections of frequency and intensity.
_______________________________________________________________________________________


[T]he specific characteristics of the changes are not yet well quantified and there
is low confidence in region-specific projections of frequency and intensity.

The IPCC assessment reports are like the Bible, you can find what you want
support your argument.

Me? I'd say after reading through the Tropical Cyclone sections of Chapter 14
and IPCC AR5 Chapter 2 2.6.3 Tropical Storms the IPCC simply doesn't know,
and neither do you.
I would say that is correct, in the case of individual storms. We cannot know to what degree ocean warming andatmospheric warming affected an individual storm.
 

noonereal

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Uh, was the path of the hurricane outside the models or something? I don't think it was.

It landed south and instead of experiencing the wind sheer which was forecast to knock it down to a Cat 1, it ballooned to just short of a Cat 5.
 

longview

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Not for the
The Lee County Sherriff used the word 'confirmed.'
Not for the hundreds mentioned!
Here is what your cited story said,
Lee County Sheriff Carmine Marceno said on CNN that at least five deaths have been confirmed in his county.
 

longview

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It wasn't a forecast. It was a masurement. Why are you on this bizarre mission that requires dishonesty? Yiu have a personal problem with climate science. It is handicapping your mind.
It matters how it was measured, and there is a difference between a ground based weather station and a doppler radar
measurement hundreds of feet in the air. What matters is the wind speed near the ground.
 

Galactic Spin

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It landed south and instead of experiencing the wind sheer which was forecast to knock it down to a Cat 1, it ballooned to just short of a Cat 5.
The wind shear did knock it down...?

They knew it would strengthen 4 days ago...?
 

Galactic Spin

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matters how it was measured, and there is a difference between a ground based weather station and a doppler radar
Which says absolutely nothing. You think casting irrational doubt somehow lends support to any claim you make. This is the sort of mental handicap I was talking about.
 
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